Ukraine - Russia Conflict
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In a nuclear war all population centres would be targeted as well as military installations, afterwards any people left in the countryside would be scrabbling around looking for clean water and food, while dying of radiation poisoning without any medical facilities. You don't have time for an evacuation of a major city, JFC, the level of naivety here is unbearable. A depressed trajectory SLBM strike from the arctic can deliver 1,152 US warheads + 500 UK and French warheads in <10 minutes. Good look detecting the launches and communicating an evacuation to the entire population of a large city and getting them all evacuated inside 10 minutes.
Only two tiny nuclear bombs were used on Japan. There have been 203mm artillery shells that pack twice the punch of either since. US warheads are 475kT, that's 32 Hiroshimas or 24 Nagasakis, and between NATO forces there will be 2,000-2,500 coming. Probably far more in a future scenario because this war has a55-f*cked any START Treaty in existence. You literally don't have a clue what you're talking about. The total area devastated in Hiroshima is smaller than the area inside which metal melts or even vaporises with a 475kT thermonuclear warhead and Moscow will get pummelled by warheads simply because it has an ABM shield. The last warheads landing will probably be heading for a pre-existent fireball.
They didn't get full free movement until 2008 and now they have a GDP/Capita of $40k, well above Russia's, it's also fair to say that the EU started helping Poland well before accession simply due to proximity. In 1998 Russian GDP was $554bn, now it is about 3x that. In 1988 Poland's GDP was $65bn, it is now about 10x that. Hungary has gone from $30bn to $180bn in the same period. You must also remember that Russia is packed with natural resources (more natural gas than any other country), so it enjoys a natural advantage which should mean an easy win and yet it gets thrashed. Ukraine has been suffering under Russian corruption like Belarus between 1990 and 2014, and Russian War since, whereas Poland has been free and associated with the EU far longer. If Russia p1ssed off and left Ukraine alone they would outperform Russia economically by a factor of 3 over the next 30 years. In fact more like 6-10 since Putin crippled Russia with sanctions.
Russia GDP
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Russia was worth 2240.42 billion US dollars in 2022, according to official data from the World Bank. The GDP value of Russia represents 0.96 percent of the world economy. This page provides the latest reported value for - Russia GDP - plus previous releases...tradingeconomics.com
Poland GDP
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Poland was worth 811.23 billion US dollars in 2023, according to official data from the World Bank. The GDP value of Poland represents 0.33 percent of the world economy. This page provides the latest reported value for - Poland GDP - plus previous releases...Hungary GDP
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Hungary was worth 212.39 billion US dollars in 2023, according to official data from the World Bank. The GDP value of Hungary represents 0.09 percent of the world economy. This page provides the latest reported value for - Hungary GDP - plus previous releases...
Polish GDP(PPP)/Capita has tripled since 1988, Russia's has simply flopped about and stagnated
Poland GDP per capita PPP
The Gross Domestic Product per capita in Poland was last recorded at 44050.95 US dollars in 2023, when adjusted by purchasing power parity (PPP). The GDP per Capita, in Poland, when adjusted by Purchasing Power Parity is equivalent to 248 percent of the world's average. This page provides the...Russia GDP per capita PPP
The Gross Domestic Product per capita in Russia was last recorded at 39753.46 US dollars in 2023, when adjusted by purchasing power parity (PPP). The GDP per Capita, in Russia, when adjusted by Purchasing Power Parity is equivalent to 224 percent of the world's average. This page provides the...
No, they were shot. And Russians next to the Russian border could have easily fled to Russia after 2014 if they'd wanted to. All Putin's lies are so obvious, it amazes me how dumb some here are.
You are considering only one scenario, where nuclear war starts with first strike. I'd rather believe a nuclear war will progress a lot slower, climbing an escalatory ladder, until it finally reaches the last rung and global destruction.
The size of a bomb is not that relevant. 1000 times more powerful than Hiroshima doesn't mean 1000 times destruction. Countries wouldn't care much about conventional militaries if nukes were the end game.
Poland's per capita was always higher than Russia's. In any case economic reason is irrelevant. Ukraine has zero chances of catching up to Russia even after joining the EU. Plus Ukraine's gonna be more broken and broke than Russia will be post war. Worst case, there's the danger of Ukraine seeing a much wider scale of infrastructure destruction than today.
It will escalate extremely fast and the net result will be the same regardless of the pace of escalation.
Why argue about it:
That's just one warhead. There are 1,962 such warheads of that size on the US and UK's strategic arsenals alone. That's not including French SLBMs and ASMP-As, or US cruise missiles and bombs. 1,412 of these warheads are on submarines and can reach home in <10 minutes, a further 450 are on ICBMs and will take 20-30 minutes.
Yes but it has increase faster since 1988 regardless, as has Hungary's. Ukraine has a good chance because it will receive significant aid and a case will be taken to the ICJ to authorise the use of seized Russian assets to pay for war reparations.
I don't think this missile was in testing phase like the Neptune was or we'd be seeing it hit targets near Moscow.Ukraine has actually been working on an Iskander-M equivalent, status unknown. This has a 500km range, which puts Moscow and Volgograd in reach. The Ukrainians are actually no mugs technologically, they can produce a lot of their own stuff.
Hrim-2 - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
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So the Neptune was in it's testing phase & we're expected to believe it hit the Moskva while on one of it's test flights.sorry on one of it's immediate post testing induction flights.
It's good to see the kind of thinking doing the rounds of western defence forums .
La Russie asphyxiée : elle met fin à certaines de ses productions militaires modernes
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
Russia suffocates: it stops some of its modern military production
The Russian military-industrial complex is suffering as a result of the economic sanctions imposed by Western countries. And for good reason: Russia is heavily dependent on high-tech imports for the production of modern equipment.
Defence industries in a state of decline
The end of foreign cooperation, higher interest rates on loans and higher prices for materials have taken their toll on Russian defence companies, which are now forced to suspend production. The "War Bulletin", produced on 16 April by the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington, reports that some twenty Russian military companies have partially or totally suspended their activities due to the consequences of the economic sanctions imposed by Western countries. These include Vympel, which produces aircraft missiles, including the R-77 long-range missile with active radar guidance, and UralVagonZavod, which produces the T-90 and T-72 battle tanks, as well as the new generation T-14 "Armatas" tank. According to the Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate (GUR), the company, which is the world's largest manufacturer of battle tanks, has completely stopped production of the T-90 and T-14, while work on the T-72 has simply been slowed down for the moment.
Russia is also suspending production of some of its air defence systems such as the Buk, the 2K12 Kub and the 2K22 Tunguska. Workers at the Ulyanovsk mechanical plant are being asked to either take unpaid leave or join the fight in Ukraine as SAM (surface-to-air missile) operators. This stoppage is particularly due to the large presence of electronic parts in the manufacture of anti-aircraft systems, of which Germany was the main supplier.
There are also many difficulties on the naval side. According to the GUR, some shipyards, such as the one in Vladivostok, are now unable to build and maintain warships.
As a result, Russia, which was already struggling to replenish its supplies in the field and which has already reported more than 3,000 disabled military vehicles, is all the more handicapped by the Western economic sanctions as they affect its military capabilities.
Modern technology on standby
The UralVagonZavod T-14 Armatas is a new generation tank that has superior theoretical qualities to what is offered in the West: heavier armour; unmanned turret; gun firing 125-millimetre shells; range of 12 km (3 times that of the American M1A2 Abrams, considered to be the best Western tank); communication system interconnected with other T-14s and T-90s; software capable of autonomously tracking different targets in order to overcome Russia's weakness in terms of night combat... The T-14 Armatas, which on paper is the best battle tank in the world, has so far only been delivered in a few pre-production examples in order to validate the technical options chosen. UralVagonZavod was supposed to start serial production and delivery of the T-14 this year, and the suspension of its production is a real blow to the modernisation of the Russian army.
The same is true of the aviation sector, where the brand new 'A-100' airborne surveillance aircraft (AWACS) from Beriev Aircraft Company and Vega has seen its production halted. Originally intended to replace the 1980s A-50 and its modernised A-50U version, the aircraft's development has been minimally delayed by the halt in deliveries of electronic components caused by Western sanctions. Touted as three times more efficient than its predecessor, the A-100 has an endurance of 4 hours and is equipped with modern avionics including panoramic surveillance radars and advanced computer systems that can detect air targets at a distance of 600km and surface targets at 400km.
In addition to the heavy economic sanctions imposed by Western countries on all sectors of Russian industry, the aim of depriving the Russian army of some of its modern technologies would thus be achieved.
Towards 100% Russian equipment?
Although economic sanctions are beginning to have the desired effects, they are only having an impact in the long term. In the short term, the Russian army is not crippled beyond the significant losses suffered in Ukraine or the accelerated consumption of its consumables, including cruise missiles and guided bombs.
These obvious handicaps do not prevent Russia from still having a significant war arsenal. According to data from the Global Fire Power Index and the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Russia is the country with the largest number of tanks in the world by far: 12,400 tanks compared to 6,600 for the United States and 400 for France. Even if the level of availability of this equipment, most of which is stored and not modernised, is very variable, Russia has a considerable renewal capacity despite the large amount of equipment destroyed and captured by the Ukrainians: the modernisation of old tanks would cost three times less and would be three times faster than the production of equivalent Russian tanks. As the recent Russian Defence Ministry report states, it would appear that the Russian army has also adopted the practice of capturing and refurbishing Ukrainian tanks for their own benefit, although the measure is probably more symbolic than operational.
Despite renewed economic cooperation, Russia, more than ever, has an interest in turning to its domestic production capacities. This is what the country seems to want to do, since Prime Minister Mikhail Michoustine has already stated that he would like to see the production of 36 all-Russian MC-21s by 2025 and 20 Sukhoi SuperJets per year, a civilian aircraft whose production could partly compensate for the unavailability of Airbus and Boeing...
They are likely hoarding stocks to prepare for a wider war. Imported stocks will be needed for upgrading stored tanks.
A video of the Ukrainian control ship "Donbass" sunk in the port of Mariupol has been published. The former Soviet repair ship PM-9, converted into a command ship of the Ukrainian Navy project 304, was built in Poland in 1969 as a Floating workshop and passed a glorious path in the ranks of the Soviet Navy. The ship's misadventures began after the partition of the Black Sea Fleet of the USSR, when the PM-9 was transferred to the Fleet of Ukraine and renamed Krasnodon, and then in 2001 to Donbass. The ship "Donbass" ended its journey in the port of Mariupol, having burned down and sunk during the battles for the city
If all you do is destroy a city, it will be rebuilt. Especially major cities with vast supply lines and underground infrastructure. You still need to send troops to hold the city in order to prevent reconstruction.
If you are referring to a nuclear war happening today, it will go bad. But there's no way to tell how it will go 10 years down the line, with many countries setting up missile defences.
Joining a bigger union always results in a faster economic growth. But you are as usual missing the point. Even if Ukraine joins the EU, it will be behind Russia for a very long time. And by the time it catches up, it will be pointless because they would have reached close to the upper ceiling of the era. In any case, for Ukraine it's an uphill battle because their TFR is significantly lower than Russia's. You can't really overtake an economy that's producing more babies while having twice your per capita and pretty much similar GDP growths. Rather, Ukrainians will use the lax immigration rules within the EU to immigrate to richer areas of the EU, making Ukraine even poorer. And all this considering only the pre-war era. Furthermore, Russia is aiming to take the richest parts of Ukraine, like the ports, industries and farmlands.
Russia-Ukraine war latest: U.S. officials meet Zelensky, Russia announces ceasefire for Mariupol
Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday, pledged aid worth $713 million and announced the return of U.S. diplomats to Kyiv.
There are only 140 million people and that one warhead killed 0.752m and left another 2m with 3rd degree burns. There are another 1,961 like it, plus another 240 150kT warheads in French SLBMs. Then another 400-500 US and French cruise missile, plus US bombs operationally deployed, before you even think about having to use the stockpile. There's not going to be any engineers left, nor are there going to miners to get the metal, nor steel producers, nor steel fabricators, nor qualified workmen. People will have more to worry about than building a city, like hunter-gathering and stuff.If all you do is destroy a city, it will be rebuilt. Especially major cities with vast supply lines and underground infrastructure. You still need to send troops to hold the city in order to prevent reconstruction.
If you are referring to a nuclear war happening today, it will go bad. But there's no way to tell how it will go 10 years down the line, with many countries setting up missile defences.
Joining a bigger union always results in a faster economic growth. But you are as usual missing the point. Even if Ukraine joins the EU, it will be behind Russia for a very long time. And by the time it catches up, it will be pointless because they would have reached close to the upper ceiling of the era. In any case, for Ukraine it's an uphill battle because their TFR is significantly lower than Russia's. You can't really overtake an economy that's producing more babies while having twice your per capita and pretty much similar GDP growths. Rather, Ukrainians will use the lax immigration rules within the EU to immigrate to richer areas of the EU, making Ukraine even poorer. And all this considering only the pre-war era. Furthermore, Russia is aiming to take the richest parts of Ukraine, like the ports, industries and farmlands.
Many countries setting up missile defences, many countries designing warheads to beat missile defences, many more countries getting nuclear weapons, many countries not signed up to START, like China, and one idiot trying to start WWIII, which will likely kill START off, which will likely increase the number of US strategic nukes back to 10,000.
Poland gets about £10bn from the EU each year, that's before you include increased trade and workers bringing money back from abroad. That's about 7% of Ukraine's GDP in value. EU opening up factories in Ukraine to make use of cheap labour. Russia isn't going anywhere except backwards while Putin remains there, Russian growth went negative in 2014 and the sanctions then were fairly mild, now it's completely screwed the dog altogether. That said, when your growth is 3x another country's, it's easy to catch up, and don't forget Ukraine has been impacted by Russian aggression for 8 years now. It's GDP will grow when Crimea is repatriated too. That didn't make Poland poorer. People have also started leaving Russia, and now the president is insane too. Stay in Russia and be sent to die in a pointless war or seek asylum abroad.
I think Ukraine is holding back on targeting Russia and is only targeting the assets that are the most strategically important. This emphasises that the war is about the invasion, attacking Russian soldiers inside Ukraine not Russians outside Ukraine (except the ones in boats).
People will get up and leave or go underground. And not all 140 million live in Moscow.
There's no point in having an oversized arsenal.
Post-war, Russian GDP will go down, stabilise and pick up again, once they are more self-sufficient. How long it will take is the question? But in the case of Ukraine, their very future is at stake. So, pre-war, no hope of catching up to Russia. Post-war, their very existence in under threat.
They tried to take Kiev, now they've restricted themselves to Crimea and the Donbass and are still failing, yet you imagine they can conduct a wider war. For Russia the cost is monumental, for NATO and the EU, this is a mild increase of the foreign aid budget (and the latter can be diverted too if needed).
Yeah, and there are >2,500 warheads. Good luck getting everyone underground in less than 10 minutes, plus there are earth penetrating warheads anyway.
You can make sure even people living in countryside are dead too, and overwhelm any defences.
It's going to go way down. They just destroyed their trading relationship with 500m people next door, then you have the fact that oil and gas is being phased out anyway. Not at this point, it's clear that Russia does not have the funds or resources to takeover Ukraine, and because Ukrainians feel their existence is threatened, they will never stop fighting. If this war extends over years, Russian deaths will exceed 1 million. Their currency is worthless, they've stabilised by have oil purchases in rubles and banning Russians from exchanging rubles for dollars etc., but nobody outside Russia will accept their currency at the stated exchange rate for online purchases, not even their ally China.
It could be industrial smoke or anything else, nothing concrete.