Russia it seems has made a few bad calls.
1. Trying a shock and awe style campaign when their army was not ready for it. Those VDV guys will be missed.
2. Not accounting for the impact of real time intel being provided to Ukraine. Ukraine is able to shift resources effectively to point that it has to some extent blunted Russia's overwhelming numbers
3. Ignoring squad level Discipline - since the times of the Soviets, discipline was the bane of the Reds. Looks like not much has improved on that front.
Behind the scenes, the West is running a massive supply op to ensure Ukraine's equipment losses are irrelevant. Russia has captured so many ATGMs that it can actually run the war for a few weeks just with the captured ATGM stocks.
A lot of noise is being made about the equipment losses without going into the specifics. Russia is still largely using older tanks (of the 1000+ tanks lost, less than 25% were T-80s or T-90s). West celebrates quality over quantity and Russians are making them expend their ATGMs at a fantastic rate. Supplies are not endless, neither are the blank cheques.
As we open for the Russian end game, I'd daresay we will see a jump in performance once a general war is declared (expect it around May 7) just as West runs out of free ATGMs and other fun toys to hand over to Ukraine for free.
Meanwhile, after the phase 1 disaster (yup phase 1 performance by Russia was less than impressive) Russia has still achieved some of its objectives, Russian speaking areas are Red, land route to Crimea is done.
The ones in progress are
1. Making Ukraine a land locked country - Taking Odessa completes this task
2. Sending Ukraine back to the 80s. Ukraine's infra is gone. Post this war Ukraine will not be in a position to compete with Russia in the arms market or be a serious player in steel/agriculture markets. A poor country is forced to choose between roads, factories, hospitals and rebuilding its armies. West's generosity is not endless.
Russia will walk away with JUST enough to call it a win internally while the West will be able to call it a win for helping (a much smaller) Ukraine survive.
There is no WW3 here. Never was.
The only winner in this mayhem has been the US and to some extent Europe. Russian equipment reputation is in the gutter, Russian economy has taken a massive hit and Russia wont be messing around with them for a few years once Ukraine is settled. Once the madness settles, Russia can go back to being the poor yokel and sell its hydrocarbons for hard cash and western technology - on western terms (or atleast that is the plan)
That was the west's sole objective. Ukraine ended up being a sacrificial pawn.
We will most likely see an oriental remake within the next 10 years if Xi Huzoor manages to survive this term.