Ukraine - Russia Conflict

BMD said:
If tanks are $3m, they've lost >$3bn in tanks alone in Ukraine. Say the average jet cost is $30m, that's another $6bn. Then helis, artillery, MLRS etc. This is 10 weeks, there are 52 weeks in a year.

Until it comes to replacing them, plus the cost of logistics, munitions etc. War is never cheap, that's just foolish.
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$3B in tanks, but paid for by the SU, not the Russians. The same with the jets, Su-24/25s, all paid for by the SU. Just look up what Russia actually produced amongst the losses, it's absolutely peanuts. What, like 30-40 T-90s? A handful of Tors, Pantsirs, Buks and Flankers? A few dozen armoured vehicles? Basically nothing.

Munitions, largely old Soviet stocks, and the stuff they make themselves is still cheap.

Logistics, yeah. But they drill and refine all the oil they need and make all of the spares and weapons on their own. Plus a large Soviet era spares stocks. So the spending is all domestic.

For the Russians, the most expensive part of this war would be the irreplaceable manpower.
 
Innominate said:
Um... there are 700+ F-35's that have entered service the USAF alone has 300+ F-35's which is more than Russia's "modern" fleet of SU-35's and SU-30SM's. It is more than the whole fighter fleet of France.

Try another analogy, bub.
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Um... those F-35s are still in LRIP, not in serial production. It is an apt analogy, bub.
 
randomradio said:
$3B in tanks, but paid for by the SU, not the Russians. The same with the jets, Su-24/25s, all paid for by the SU. Just look up what Russia actually produced amongst the losses, it's absolutely peanuts. What, like 30-40 T-90s? A handful of Tors, Pantsirs, Buks and Flankers? A few dozen armoured vehicles? Basically nothing.

Munitions, largely old Soviet stocks, and the stuff they make themselves is still cheap.

Logistics, yeah. But they drill and refine all the oil they need and make all of the spares and weapons on their own. Plus a large Soviet era spares stocks. So the spending is all domestic.

For the Russians, the most expensive part of this war would be the irreplaceable manpower.
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You still have to replace them and I don't see them being replaced as fast as they were lost. They were due to be in service for a long time past now. The SU was the Russians, don't try and dissociate them. Some have even brandished the USSR flag during this war.

It's still a hell of a lot of spending either way. Even resources have to be extracted, processed and fabricated. You don't pull tanks and jets out of the ground freshly made. They've lost dozens of air defence system including S-300s and specialist radars and EW stuff. There are also certain LRIs which they can't get anymore.

The manpower is arguably the cheapest to replace. It's not like they've spent money on training them or anything.

I think that the Russians would have used their 'better stuff' by now, if such existed.
randomradio said:
Um... those F-35s are still in LRIP, not in serial production. It is an apt analogy, bub.
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800 isn't serial production? That's more than Russia has total. With the F-22s that's around 1,000 stealth fighters, more if you include NATO.


2024 Russia Military Strength

Detailing the current military strength of Russia including air force, army, navy, financials and manpower.
www.globalfirepower.com
 
Russia on fire: a large-scale fire in the Krasnoyarsk Territory
Click to expand...

Russia on fire: more than 15 villages in Krasnoyarsk Krai Due to strong winds in the Krasnoyarsk Territory, fires engulfed more than 15 villages, and one burned completely. A state of emergency has been imposed throughout the region. Rescuers are already putting out the fires, but the blaze has engulfed at least 200 different buildings. The fire engulfed residential buildings, kindergartens, paramedics, sawmills, garden cooperatives.
Click to expand...
 
BMD said:
You still have to replace them and I don't see them being replaced as fast as they were lost. They were due to be in service for a long time past now. The SU was the Russians, don't try and dissociate them. Some have even brandished the USSR flag during this war.

It's still a hell of a lot of spending either way. Even resources have to be extracted, processed and fabricated. You don't pull tanks and jets out of the ground freshly made. They've lost dozens of air defence system including S-300s and specialist radars and EW stuff. There are also certain LRIs which they can't get anymore.

The manpower is arguably the cheapest to replace. It's not like they've spent money on training them or anything.

I think that the Russians would have used their 'better stuff' by now, if such existed.

800 isn't serial production? That's more than Russia has total. With the F-22s that's around 1,000 stealth fighters, more if you include NATO.


2024 Russia Military Strength

Detailing the current military strength of Russia including air force, army, navy, financials and manpower.
www.globalfirepower.com
Click to expand...

They only need to upgrade existing stock to "replace" them. The main modernisation will begin after Armata enters serial production. Some say 2022, some says 2023 or even 2024.

What they have spent and lost is still peanuts, especially for all that land gained. The areas under occupation in Ukraine is prime land. It will pay itself back. Basically the bread basket of Ukraine.
Ukraine_wheat.jpg


Manpower in a declining population is a precious resource.

They haven't used their "better" stuff a lot.

Building more stuff than necessary during LRIP is just bad decision. The F-35 production was designed for 150 LRIP jets, not 800. 650 of the 800 were originally supposed to be in the Block 4 configuration during delivery. As per the Pentagon, the F-35s are not entirely usable. The first set of usable jets are expected to arrive only in 2023.

www.congress.gov

[H.A.S.C. No. 117-22] UPDATE ON F-35 PROGRAM ACCOMPLISHMENTS, ISSUES, AND RISKS

[H.A.S.C. No. 117-22] UPDATE ON F-35 PROGRAM ACCOMPLISHMENTS, ISSUES, AND RISKS
www.congress.gov
APRIL 22, 2021

The Technical Refresh 3, or as we know the TR3 and Block 4
combat capability F-35 is still at least 5 years away before
declaring full operational capabilities. That is a quarter
century to get there. And according to plan, we certainly find
that based on recent developments that we expect that to slip,
also.

Also, after a little bit more than 2 years into
development, our understanding is that TR3 hardware supporting
Block 4 capabilities is approximately 4 to 5 months behind
schedule and likely to be near $450 million over its planned
budget.

Additionally, Block 4 software development is on shaky
ground because Block 3F software, which is the foundation for
Block 4, is a multiyear patchwork of inefficient and poorly
designed software code that has been rushed to preserve the
program schedule without undergoing the rigorous and full
testing to find and fix the deficiencies prior to fielding. And
this is resulting in significant software issues at the time
when it is discovered in the field.

The second element is Block 4. Think the applications that
will be applied on the new hardware. Those really evolve around
several elements--electronic warfare, comm/nav
[communiciations/navigation] communication on the airframe,
weapons systems on the airframe, increased data fusion on the
airframe. So those are really the key core capabilities that
will be brought with new application that will be hosted on the
new TR3 hardware.

But as others have testified today, peer competitors are
aggressively modernizing their forces faster than we have seen
in many decades. Therefore, we need Block 4, enabled by TR3, to
ensure continued relevance against China and Russia.

TR3 Hardware is planned for delivery beginning in Lot 15
in 2023.

The program, certainly, has also failed to
achieve full-rate production as planned, and still finds itself
in low-rate production delivering less than the warfighter
requirements.

Basically, everything that actually makes the F-35 special is the Block 4, and first you need the TR3 hardware before implementing Block 4. So a lot of the older jets will still need upgrades to TR3 standards. It's still a long journey. But TR3 will signal the F-35's entry into serial production.
 
randomradio said:
They only need to upgrade existing stock to "replace" them. The main modernisation will begin after Armata enters serial production. Some say 2022, some says 2023 or even 2024.

What they have spent and lost is still peanuts, especially for all that land gained. The areas under occupation in Ukraine is prime land. It will pay itself back. Basically the bread basket of Ukraine.
Ukraine_wheat.jpg


Manpower in a declining population is a precious resource.

They haven't used their "better" stuff a lot.

Building more stuff than necessary during LRIP is just bad decision. The F-35 production was designed for 150 LRIP jets, not 800. 650 of the 800 were originally supposed to be in the Block 4 configuration during delivery. As per the Pentagon, the F-35s are not entirely usable. The first set of usable jets are expected to arrive only in 2023.

www.congress.gov

[H.A.S.C. No. 117-22] UPDATE ON F-35 PROGRAM ACCOMPLISHMENTS, ISSUES, AND RISKS

[H.A.S.C. No. 117-22] UPDATE ON F-35 PROGRAM ACCOMPLISHMENTS, ISSUES, AND RISKS
www.congress.gov
APRIL 22, 2021

The Technical Refresh 3, or as we know the TR3 and Block 4
combat capability F-35 is still at least 5 years away before
declaring full operational capabilities. That is a quarter
century to get there. And according to plan, we certainly find
that based on recent developments that we expect that to slip,
also.

Also, after a little bit more than 2 years into
development, our understanding is that TR3 hardware supporting
Block 4 capabilities is approximately 4 to 5 months behind
schedule and likely to be near $450 million over its planned
budget.

Additionally, Block 4 software development is on shaky
ground because Block 3F software, which is the foundation for
Block 4, is a multiyear patchwork of inefficient and poorly
designed software code that has been rushed to preserve the
program schedule without undergoing the rigorous and full
testing to find and fix the deficiencies prior to fielding. And
this is resulting in significant software issues at the time
when it is discovered in the field.

The second element is Block 4. Think the applications that
will be applied on the new hardware. Those really evolve around
several elements--electronic warfare, comm/nav
[communiciations/navigation] communication on the airframe,
weapons systems on the airframe, increased data fusion on the
airframe. So those are really the key core capabilities that
will be brought with new application that will be hosted on the
new TR3 hardware.

But as others have testified today, peer competitors are
aggressively modernizing their forces faster than we have seen
in many decades. Therefore, we need Block 4, enabled by TR3, to
ensure continued relevance against China and Russia.

TR3 Hardware is planned for delivery beginning in Lot 15
in 2023.

The program, certainly, has also failed to
achieve full-rate production as planned, and still finds itself
in low-rate production delivering less than the warfighter
requirements.

Basically, everything that actually makes the F-35 special is the Block 4, and first you need the TR3 hardware before implementing Block 4. So a lot of the older jets will still need upgrades to TR3 standards. It's still a long journey. But TR3 will signal the F-35's entry into serial production.
Click to expand...
Not if Ukraine cuts off the water supply to it it won't. There's also no guarantee they will keep that land, or how many more vehicles they'll lose to get it, or the size of the debt they'll be paying back at 14-20% interests after. You've counted a lot of chickens here, and none of them are hatched.

Russia is no closer to winning this war than it was 10 weeks ago and they bleed billions of $s every day. 100% debt by this time next year plus high interest on all those 30-year bonds they've sold China.

Europe has loads of fertile land, especially the UK, courtesy of all the rain. Russia has plenty too, and more valuable resources, and they're throwing away thousands of vehicles and tens of thousands of men to try gain what is a smidgeon compared to the size of Russia. There's no way this ends well. Russia would be doing a lot better by now if it simply continued co-operating with Europe and stopped invading neighbours and getting itself sanctioned over the last 22 years. I've never witnessed any country suffer such sustained economic sabotage at the hands of its own leaders.

84 air defence systems and 38 special equipment vehicles.

en.interfax.com.ua

Russia has lost about 200 servicemen, 12 tanks and 17 drones in Ukraine in past 24 hours - AFU General Staff

Combat losses of the Russian occupation army in the past 24 hours amounted to about 200 personnel, and since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24 to the morning of Saturday, May 7, amounted to about 25,100, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said on...
en.interfax.com.ua en.interfax.com.ua

Not to mention 2 very expensive warships and 354 aircraft/helis and 700 MLRS/Artillery units. Plus all the fires, plus the sanctions.

Afghanistan did nowhere near as much damage over 9 years to Russia.
 
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BMD said:
Not if Ukraine cuts off the water supply to it it won't. There's also no guarantee they will keep that land, or how many more vehicles they'll lose to get it, or the size of the debt they'll be paying back at 14-20% interests after. You've counted a lot of chickens here, and none of them are hatched.

Russia is no closer to winning this war than it was 10 weeks ago and they bleed billions of $s every day. 100% debt by this time next year plus high interest on all those 30-year bonds they've sold China.

Europe has loads of fertile land, especially the UK, courtesy of all the rain. Russia has plenty too, and more valuable resources, and they're throwing away thousands of vehicles and tens of thousands of men to try gain what is a smidgeon compared to the size of Russia. There's no way this ends well. Russia would be doing a lot better by now if it simply continued co-operating with Europe and stopped invading neighbours and getting itself sanctioned over the last 22 years. I've never witnessed any country suffer such sustained economic sabotage at the hands of its own leaders.

84 air defence systems and 38 special equipment vehicles.

en.interfax.com.ua

Russia has lost about 200 servicemen, 12 tanks and 17 drones in Ukraine in past 24 hours - AFU General Staff

Combat losses of the Russian occupation army in the past 24 hours amounted to about 200 personnel, and since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24 to the morning of Saturday, May 7, amounted to about 25,100, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said on...
en.interfax.com.ua en.interfax.com.ua

Not to mention 2 very expensive warships and 354 aircraft/helis and 700 MLRS/Artillery units. Plus all the fires, plus the sanctions.

Afghanistan did nowhere near as much damage over 9 years to Russia.
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The Ukrainians had cut off water supply to Crimea, but the Russians took back control. The Ukrainians can't stop the river now.

Russia was willing to cooperate with Europe, but you are the bad guys in the story, not them.

No one believes the numbers the Ukrainians are putting out.
 
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Reactions: jetray
randomradio said:
The Ukrainians had cut off water supply to Crimea, but the Russians took back control. The Ukrainians can't stop the river now.

Russia was willing to cooperate with Europe, but you are the bad guys in the story, not them.

No one believes the numbers the Ukrainians are putting out.
Click to expand...
It flows down from the North of Ukraine.

By invasion after invasion until the EU finally had to sanction them? France and Germany have come under heavy criticism for holding off for this long even. At the end of the day NATO has not invaded any country in Europe since its creation, Russia has invaded many during that time. NATO expansion is just an excuse for Russian expansion, which causes NATO expansion. NATO expansion happens via agreement, Russian expansion happens via flattened cities and tanks, plus some genocide.

For you Russia will never be the bad guys, simply because you've left yourself dependent on them and you hate the west. No matter what they did, you would make excuses for them. Pathetic.

I've seen all the videos, believe them, they real. The Russian figures don't tally with the number of vehicle carcasses lying around. Nor do they tally with the withdrawal from the north or the lack of territory gains.
 
Ukraine won round 1 in Kyiv, and now has won round 2 in Donbas. Find out next time in 2 days if Putin launches round 3.

Any guesses?

I lean towards yes.
 
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zinswinsin said:
Ukraine won round 1 in Kyiv, and now has won round 2 in Donbas. Find out next time in 2 days if Putin launches round 3.
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Yeah it looks like round 2 will go to Ukraine even though Russia has made very small/insignificant progress in Donbas. The whole point of shifting defeated Kyiv forces to Donbas was to overwhelm Ukriane forces deployed on the eastern and southern front but Russia is losing Kharkiv, hasn't progressed in Kherson and insignificant gains in Donbas while losing a lot of equipment and men.

All this happening without Ukraine using its brand new heavy offensive weapons given to them by NATO. I think Putin doesn't have a choice but to call up more forces because in a few weeks when Ukraine forces are done training with US/NATO towed-arty, self propelled arty and Himars/MLRS Ukraine will be able go on the offensive and not these counter offensives that gain 2-3 miles like in Kharkiv.

Ukraine will be taking out Russian arty positions better than they do now which is weird saying since they have been very accurate at hitting Russian forces. Taking out Russian arty Ukraine will be able to use their tanks, APC and IFV in battle formations.

zinswinsin said:
Any guesses?

I lean towards yes.
Click to expand...

What would a phase 3 look like? What else can they do other than to escalate this war? Belarus aint going to commit suicide by helping Russia the more likely scenario is Putin ordering Russian troops in Transnistria to start a lot of trouble but that in itself won't get them anywhere unless the whole point is to start WW3.

All these fires inside Russia are from Russian citizens what do you think the reaction will be if Putin gives the order for mobilization? Sexy Russian boys and their mothers aren't going to like that at all. Putin may face riots and a revolt from the Russian people.
 
The Russian ZRPC "Pantsir-S1" shot down a Ukrainian UAV "Bayraktar" at a distance of 18 km. The UAV "Bayraktar" of the AFU carried 4 missiles that did not detonate and did not explode. The missiles were seized for examination.


A massive strike by the Russian heavy multiple launch rocket system "Smerch" on the deployment area of the S-300 air defense system of Ukraine, led to an accurate hit in one of the installations of the S-300 air defense system and a powerful explosion of its missiles.


There was a video of the work of PMCs Wagner in Ukraine. Soldiers of the private Russian military company Wagner, using the MT-12 Rapier anti-tank gun and the AGS-17 Flame 30 mm automatic grenade launcher, methodically destroy the fortified positions of the Ukrainian army.

 
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