Putin invades every country that isn't NATO in Europe, that's why NATO keeps expanding.
Before you spit out your coffee, give it second, and keep reading.
diary-of-a-nerdy-kid.medium.com
Putin is Perfectly Rational
Foreigner settlers sparking a revolution against their new home’s government.
Before you spit out your coffee, give it second, and keep reading.
In the not so distant past, there was a country with a significant migration problem. People with one linguistic, cultural and religious tradition settled a frontier region belonging to a country with separate linguistic, cultural and religious traditions. Naturally, there was a great deal of tension between the settlers and the government.
As antagonisms grew, and the settlers demanded more and more concessions from the government, rebellion finally broke out.
As the rebellion intensified, the settlers’ original country flooded the territory with arms and volunteers, and the settlers won their independence. After a short go of independence, they held a referendum (sometimes called a plebiscite), and decided to join their home country. Leaving the country who originally had claims and rights to the territory upset, but unable to do anything about it.
If you said that this rings of some of the issues facing Ukraine, you’d be right. If you also said that this doesn’t sound quite like Ukraine, you would also be right. This isn’t Ukraine in the 21st Century. This is Texas in the 19th Century.
Many Westerners struggle to put Putin’s actions into context, so they conclude that “he must be crazy.” Sorry, but unfortunately, he isn’t.
The problem with understanding Putin isn’t with Putin. It is with our own lens. Putin’s actions do not make sense from the perspective of a 21st Century Western European or North American. They
do make sense from the perspective of a 17th to 19th Century Russian Tsar or a 19th Century American President (Andrew Jackson).
It is a marvel of modern history that a good portion of the world has come to view Machiavellian territorial schemes as a
bad thing. Stability is the
new normal. It isn’t the historical norm.
Life in the “state of nature” e.g. most of human history.
More so than colliding worldviews (more on this in a second), we are witnessing the collision of two histories. On one hand, we have the western desire for a stable international order and the history that may stem from that. On the other, we have the weight of human history, where consequently life was “nasty, brutish and short”, still making a push for the
might makes right world order.
In the language of international affairs academics, the world is generally divided into liberalists and realists. There are those that deal with the world as they want it to be (liberalists) and those who deal with the world as it is (realists). Putin is the third kind. He’s the kind that we hoped died in a bunker in Berlin.
At any rate, NATO and the 70 years of European peace that it has fostered is a historical anomaly. It is especially astounding considering that so many NATO members have historical antagonisms that go back centuries and even millennia (Greeks-Turks, Greeks-Macedonians, Germans-French, Germans-English, English-French, Danes verses, well, everyone — just to name a few).
NATO has actually interrupted the cycle of violence that plagued one of the world’s most violent regions for a few thousand years. But it comes at a cost to individual nations. Those nations can no longer enlarge their borders at the expense of another. In other words, for NATO countries, might is not longer right.
Setting aside the fact that NATO expanded its membership to include former Soviet republics and Warsaw Pact members within 10 years of the collapse of the USSR, perhaps this is why Putin fears/hates NATO. It is antithetical to everything he believes. NATO blocked Putin’s ability to absorb the Baltic states and maybe even bring Poland to heel. It limited his ability to bully countries and people who were, historically, subject to whatever whims a tsar may have at the moment.
My favorite portrait of the tsar.
Back to Putin.
Putin is not a madman. He is not ill. He is not mentally unstable. He is a tsarist who is trying to recreate Imperial Russia. He does not want “chaos” for the sake of “chaos”.
If Putin were crazy, then a) he probably would not be the president of Russia and b) we would be unable to trace the logic of his decisions and therefore we would not be able to counter him.
So why does any of this matter?
Well, a popular military axiom is to “know your enemy”. Brushing of the enemy as “crazy” doesn’t qualify as knowing them. In normal discussions, it may be excusable because most people aren’t actively making policy decisions. In the policy making realms, brushing off the enemy as crazy is irresponsible because policy makers begin making decisions based on bad information and false assumptions.
Saying Putin is rationale is not the same as saying that we agree with his actions.
By acknowledging that Putin has reasons for what he is doing, policy makers can do things to influence or interrupt his decision making. Crazy people don’t have decision making processes with understandable logic. And Putin isn’t crazy.
Was ukraine a democracy when the mob backed by americans conducted a coup on yanukovych ? so why did america and nato run away from afghanistan leaving it to bunch of terrorists. This defending democracy bull sh*** has gone past its expiry date, please come up with some thing new.
No, it likely wasn't, if it had been Russia wouldn't be facing such stiff resistance right now. Most Iraqis were glad when the US came to replace Saddam before Al Quaeda and foreign-backed entities came to destroy the country.
Because Afghanistan has so many different tribes it's literally impossible to unfuck without killing every single person in Afghanistan and Pakistan, that's why we pulled out. The government had more than a fighting chance if it had tried. It was also a case of shifting goalposts. The original goal was Al-Quaeda in Afghanistan, that was accomplished in the first 2 weeks with 12 men. The second was Bin Laden, that was accomplished in 2011 in Pakistan. Making Afghanistan a country instead of a shithole was then something that suddenly became a goal, we failed, but we tried. Putin is trying to make a democracy a puppet regime like Belarus.