Ukraine - Russia Conflict

https://twitter.com/x/status/1502674536193568769

https://twitter.com/x/status/1502676090036305920

https://twitter.com/x/status/1502679562714497026

https://twitter.com/x/status/1502682176848027658

https://twitter.com/x/status/1502685105650905097

THREAD!!

This guy is reportedly a Tartar supremacist & separatist which automatically makes him a Russia & Putin hater so whatever he posts would've to be taken with more than a pinch of salt.

Having got that out of the way, his analysis certainly sheds light on aspects of Russian society & their military which one doesn't normally come across on contemporary commentary on Russia except sweeping statements .
 
_Anonymous_ said:
You mean during Gulf War 1&2 when US led forces were broadcasting messages to the Iraqi Army not to fight them but to turn on SH, instead of withdrawing back to where they came from - that was wrong too?

Ditto for the Taliban. We know what happened there.
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www.wionews.com

West made a mistake by promising NATO membership to Ukraine: EU foreign policy chief Borrell

Disclaimer: A number of claims and counterclaims are being made on the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the ground and online. While WION takes utmost care to accurately report this developing news story, we cannot independently verify the authenticity of all statements, photos and videos. European...
www.wionews.com
 
randomradio said:
Russia is not the Soviet Union.

What I'm really curious about is what technologies they are gonna steal and at what scale. 'Cause a lot of that can easily end up in the developing world too, particularly medicines.

Hell, they can make their own Star Wars movies or their own Disneyland. You can take it for granted that all Western streaming services can be killed overnight. They can create their own Steam, Epic and Battle.net apps and offer all their games for practically free, including multiplayer.

Chinese companies can set up a fab plant in Russia and manufacture exact copies of Western chips.

There's no limit.
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It's behaving and performing pretty much identically. And it would already have copied if it was that easy.

What will happen is that Russia will be out of the WTO and very few countries will trade with them because they will lose the ability to trade with larger markets if they do. The transatlantic market plus South American allies, Australia, NZ, ROK, Japan etc. is >2/3rds of the global GDP. Russia and anyone who sides with such theft would be living in a 1/3rd world.
STEPHEN COHEN said:
Ukranian civilians are suffering badly , Zelensky must surrender
And stop the war immediately
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Yeah, it's not like Putin could just stop invading a country that isn't his is it.
 
WHOHE said:
Sheesh.

This is what you should have posted... Ukraine civilians are suffering badly. Putin should pull out and stop the war immediately.

Your original post makes you sound thick headed and... well... dumb.
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Because of something the Russians did in 1971, certain Indians will think that the sun forever shines out of Russia ar5e, even though the Soviets did not help them because it was right, they helped them because it was politically convenient. It was basically a case of a broken clock stopped at 12 o'clock. They glanced over at noon and thought, "wow, this amazing clock is brilliant."
 
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STEPHEN COHEN said:
www.wionews.com

West made a mistake by promising NATO membership to Ukraine: EU foreign policy chief Borrell

Disclaimer: A number of claims and counterclaims are being made on the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the ground and online. While WION takes utmost care to accurately report this developing news story, we cannot independently verify the authenticity of all statements, photos and videos. European...
www.wionews.com
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Sputnik. EU membership would still have been a problem for Putin because Russia would have lost trade. And trying to blame this on potential organisations Ukraine could have joined is ridiculous. Ukraine is an independent country, it can join whatever it wants. I mean seriously, would, "we nuked them because they joined BRICS," be a valid position?
 
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BMD said:
It's behaving and performing pretty much identically. And it would already have copied if it was that easy.
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No, IP rights were largely respected in Russia. A bit less in China. But this new Russian move opens a very large can of worms.

BMD said:
What will happen is that Russia will be out of the WTO and very few countries will trade with them because they will lose the ability to trade with larger markets if they do. The transatlantic market plus South American allies, Australia, NZ, ROK, Japan etc. is >2/3rds of the global GDP. Russia and anyone who sides with such theft would be living in a 1/3rd world.
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You don't need to be in the WTO to have trade with other countries. The WTO was set up in 1995, but China joined it only in 2001. Russia became part of WTO in 2012. Trade is dependent on supply and demand.
 
Hydra said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1502886785764171780
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The army is 10 years away from achieving indigenisation for primary technologies, the IAF is 15 years away and the navy is pretty much 20+ years away. So yeah, any potential war with China can easily happen long before indigenisation is achieved.

Our reliance on France and Israel will be the highest for new technologies. Reliance on the US for new technologies will be a bit low.
BMD said:
Because of something the Russians did in 1971, certain Indians will think that the sun forever shines out of Russia ar5e, even though the Soviets did not help them because it was right, they helped them because it was politically convenient. It was basically a case of a broken clock stopped at 12 o'clock. They glanced over at noon and thought, "wow, this amazing clock is brilliant."
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No. This is the real reason.

www.business-standard.com

India will make alliances according to history, neighbourhood: German envoy

India would make alliances according to its history and neighbourhood, but as a general principle allowing Putin to do what he is doing in Ukraine is "dangerous" for all, Lindner said.
www.business-standard.com www.business-standard.com

Without a UNSC veto, India's hands are tied. We can't make alliances even if we want to.
 
breakingdefense.com

Top American generals on three key lessons learned from Ukraine - Breaking Defense

"The computer models would have said Russia wins in 72 to 96 hours," said Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger. They "cannot explain why Ukraine is still hanging on. Why is that?"
breakingdefense.com breakingdefense.com
"The computer models would have said Russia wins in 72 to 96 hours," said Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger. They "cannot explain why Ukraine is still hanging on. Why is that?"
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'Cause for whatever reasons, the Russians are not interested in using overwhelming firepower to deal with their enemies.

“If you’re going to put an army on the move, if you’re going to conduct combat operations, if you don’t have logistics, if you don’t have gas, if you don’t have parts, if you don’t have all the ammunition, then those weapon systems become paperweights. They just sit on the side of the road and you can’t fight [with] them.”
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Yep. Massive logistics failure. Although we do not know to what extent.

“I think — and think is a key word — is that they’re struggling with fighting Russian systems and they [the Ukrainians] are not adhering to Russian doctrine,” Kelly said.
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Even the Russians are not adhering to Russian doctrine.

However, the fight between Ukraine and Russia shows that older, less advanced tech can still make an impact against high-end threats.

McConville pointed to Ukraine’s success in using relatively inexpensive, Turkish-made TB2 Bayraktar drones to take out Russian tanks and other military vehicles without putting human pilots at risk.
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Yep. It's difficult to kill stuff when the opponent is weirdly not defending itself.

“People envision that integrated air and missile defense is like a wall, that you can’t get through it. There’s ways you can get around it, There’s ways you can get through it,” McConville said. “You can suppress with kinetic [fires]. You can suppress with non-kinetic means. … You provide commanders with a lot of options and you also provide adversaries with a lot of dilemmas.”
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On its own, yeah. Which is why you need AWACS and fighter jets also defending the ground forces. A TB2 can't fight the Su-35 after all.

Anyway a lot of the TB2 claims are suspect. We have seen some successes against stranded Russian targets or against some static convoys, perhaps even abandoned ones. But nothing much against active convoys. Especially that completely stalled logistics convoy which should have been easy pickings.

The Russian ability to operate its ground forces with limited Russian air presence, limited artillery usage and a numerical inferiority should be very concerning to foreign observers and analysts, irrespective of their gaffes in logistics, which can be fixed.

“The discipline, the leadership, the fighting spirit, whatever you want to call it, models don’t account for that. They can account for a weapon system, they can do [calculations]. They cannot explain why Ukraine is still hanging on. Why is that?” Berger said.
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The answer is really simple. The Russians don't want to kill Ukrainians. They need to account for weapons systems usage, not merely its existence.

It's a nice propaganda piece overall. People forget that it's the Russians who are offering exit corridors, not the Ukranian Army requesting them.
 
randomradio said:
No, IP rights were largely respected in Russia. A bit less in China. But this new Russian move opens a very large can of worms.



You don't need to be in the WTO to have trade with other countries. The WTO was set up in 1995, but China joined it only in 2001. Russia became part of WTO in 2012. Trade is dependent on supply and demand.
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Oh sure they were. What about North Korea? Even copying requires some skill. You can copy a chip design, but what you can't copy is the fabrication method.

You don't but the WTO ensures reasonable tariff levels and access to all markets. There will be no access whatsoever for people breaching copyright and trading in such merchandise.
randomradio said:
The army is 10 years away from achieving indigenisation for primary technologies, the IAF is 15 years away and the navy is pretty much 20+ years away. So yeah, any potential war with China can easily happen long before indigenisation is achieved.

Our reliance on France and Israel will be the highest for new technologies. Reliance on the US for new technologies will be a bit low.


No. This is the real reason.

www.business-standard.com

India will make alliances according to history, neighbourhood: German envoy

India would make alliances according to its history and neighbourhood, but as a general principle allowing Putin to do what he is doing in Ukraine is "dangerous" for all, Lindner said.
www.business-standard.com www.business-standard.com

Without a UNSC veto, India's hands are tied. We can't make alliances even if we want to.
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Site is blocked because of ad-blocker. You have a vote at the UN.
 
randomradio said:
The Russian ability to operate its ground forces with limited Russian air presence, limited artillery usage and a numerical inferiority should be very concerning to foreign observers and analysts, irrespective of their gaffes in logistics, which can be fixed.



The answer is really simple. The Russians don't want to kill Ukrainians. They need to account for weapons systems usage, not merely its existence.

It's a nice propaganda piece overall. People forget that it's the Russians who are offering exit corridors, not the Ukranian Army requesting them.
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They have numerical superiority. It's no propaganda piece, the Russian performance has been dismal. Even the bottom rung of the Russian IADS should have been able to deal with drones, it's just not very well integrated. It also underestimated the enemy by an order of magnitude, which is understand. Don't forget, Ukraine was a country still in some disarray following 2013/14.
 
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