There's some opportunity for air-launched NG, but not for 1 or 2. Overall, they are not interested in importing what they already build. And India is not interested in being a supplier during the war. Our neutrality is more important.
Ukraine - Russia Conflict
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There's some opportunity for air-launched NG, but not for 1 or 2. Overall, they are not interested in importing what they already build. And India is not interested in being a supplier during the war. Our neutrality is more important.
Weeks. It's summer.
Are you Olaf?
I didn't realise Frozen could also act as a documentary?
You don't need control of something to blow it up. Do I need to explain how war works?
Okay, so Ukraine cannot cross over dry land with concentrated enemy fire and no cover, but can do an amphibious landing under the same conditions?
Is "reality" a functional word for you?
As a Major-General of the arm-chair armed forces I have to say.... no sht! Russians were too nervy to try it due to being to close to NATO nations and besides this operation was going to be a 3 day thing... a week at best. What could go wrong?
As a Major-General of the arm-chair armed forces I have to say.... no sht! Russians were too nervy to try it due to being to close to NATO nations and besides this operation was going to be a 3 day thing... a week at best. What could go wrong?
Yeah, they screwed up in 2 ways:
1. Didn't prepare for a war, just a picnic.
2. They needed a larger army, which they are working on now. The Russian ground forces should have been twice its current size. 260k was too small.
Just to be the devil's advocate, Russia places orders through Brahmos corp. a JV between India/Russia. So it's part their company too. Although West is going to cry fowl after that so GOI may not do it, lol.
They may not face the same tactical situation in Moldova, but the global strategic/economic outcomes have already been set. Russia can no longer rely on the European market to buy its energy & commodity exports.
Russia's population is declining as a whole. But more importantly, the non-ethnic Russian population is increasing. This is not good for a centralized economy like Russia. It's the whole reason Russia decided to play it's hand with the military option when it did - it knew that demographically the next half-century was going to be bad for it, so best get this over with while we still can.
You cannot compare the Russian economy with the West or Japan. The Russians' economy is almost entirely dependent on the export of energy & raw materials, whereas the West/Japan are highly complex economies based around high-end manufacturing (and speaking of US, domestic consumption). The two couldn't be more different.
The Russians' window for transitioning to a manufacturing and/or consumption-driven economy has already closed. They no longer have access to the inputs needed to do so. The only way they can even hypothetically have access to these inputs in the future is via China. And that's a big if - provided China manages to wean itself off Western inputs in the first place.
I'm afraid we aren't. Did you see India being invited to any of the Russia-organized talks?
Agreed - but like you said yourself, that's a long-term game i.e. 40-50 years in the future. However, one cannot think of the long term at the expense of ignoring the short or medium term, lest one fails to live long enough to see the long term! That's exactly the position Russia is in right now.
For the next few decades, the relationship with China is an absolute necessity for them. India is a 'nice to have', but when push comes to shove and they are forced by the Chinese to choose, they will choose the PRC.
They ignored India for China back in 1962, because they needed Chinese backing for the Cuban crisis. And today's Russia is way weaker and their needs are far more desperate, they simply have no wherewithal to say no to the Chinese anymore.
That's temporary. While the latter part is true, about India and US with converging interests regarding China from a military PoV, the GS requires a counterweight to China, which the West has failed to become. India is the only one capable of filling that spot. As for BRI, yeah, there's a BRI led by China today, but there will be one led by India tomorrow. In fact, the West, Japan and India are working together to counter China's BRI in Africa.
Europe, Japan, US, UAE prefer India for joint infrastructure projects in Africa
The UAE, France, Germany, UK and Italy are in talks with India to launch joint projects in Africa owing to Indias goodwill created by funding demand driven projects.economictimes.indiatimes.com
The Africans hate the West, and tolerate the Chinese, but are more appreciative of India. The fact that the Taliban prefer India over Pakistan says a lot. The same thing in Africa. So the West wants to combine India's soft power in Africa with their significantly cheaper money to counter China.
Like I said, the GS has no overarching strategic goals they all share. We cannot look at them like we do at ourselves, most of the 'GS' is helmed by leaders far more corrupt & far more petty than India has ever had. For them, China's no-questions-asked loans & grants are a gift from god. No matter how much we grow, being a democracy we can never provide that level of unchecked expenditure.
Heck, we played a hand through Adani for that one port in Haifa and the political opposition has already demonized the entire business class as corrupt/in Modi's pocket.
The ONLY way we can match China in this kind of spending is by pooling our resources (both economic & diplomatic) with the West, as part of the same concerted effort.
We simply aren't capable of being a 'bloc' unto ourselves, and won't be in the foreseeable future.
That's a big gamble which may or may not work. There's no guarantee it will. Companies with money to spare gamble on things like this all the time, only a few actually work and succeed in becoming market leaders in a new segment.
Bottom line is, that's too flimsy of a bet to base our geopolitical ambitions on.
Japan is the biggest player in SEA today.
Why Japan still leads in Southeast Asian infrastructure investment
Tokyo's position as the top investor allows it to not only counter Beijing's growing clout in the region but also promote key economic and foreign policy objectives.www.japantimes.co.jp
So a combined India, Japan push into SEA will be able to compete with China.
Like I said, we decided in favour of pooling our resources with the QUAD to tackle SEA.
Let's learn to crawl & walk before we try to run.
Right now the attractiveness of our military industrial complex & capacity of our government clout (read: lobbying) cannot even match that of South Korea. Nowhere will you find anyone willing to buy the Tejas over the FA-50 for example. So forget competing with likes of Lockheed/Boeing/Dassault - that's not gonna happen anytime soon.
We are making the right moves within our capacity. We can start with missiles & artillery - establish ourselves as a reliable supplier, build a robust domestic MIC first, especially in Private sector. Then we can think of pursuing larger contracts abroad. Otherwise even if by some miracle we get some orders, the whole deal will just fall flat on its face like happened with Ecuador ALH sale.
Because our current DPSU-based MIC is simply not geared for competitive business markets. That is an alien world for them. They are used to having everything handed to them on a platter by way of Government nomination.
I'm afraid we've already bought most everything of what we could realistically expect. Even OK-650 PWR design is already in our hands.
Further relationship in these aspects is going to be subject to squeezing by the PRC. Earlier, most of Russians' income came from Europe so they had the means to tell China to mind its own business. That won't be the case going forward.
BrahMos-2 program has stalled a while back. Most likely the Russians have hit a wall. I don't have many hopes on this project.
Our domestic SCRAMJET efforts are shaping up however, that's where the future lies.
I'm not hopeful of Chakra-3 coming anymore. It was delayed even before the war started, now it must be a total mess.
We have our own now. Sure additional points of reference are nice to have, but not necessary.
Plus, we're already working on the means of rapid launch-on-demand capability to replace sats lost to hostile action.
Carriers, destroyers cooperation is now at its end as we will no longer be developing the P15 Delhi hull lineage with it's Soviet propulsion layouts. NGD is a totally new, Westernized concept. There was Russian assistance in Vikrant bulkheads but we can most probably indigenize that without issue, we've gained sufficient experience. Aviation complex is being Westernized anyway so no more Russian help needed there.
Nuclear subs are the big thing - but I'm pretty sure we have indigenized a lot if not most of the technology we need. L&T has fully absorbed the fabrication techniques for double-hulled boats...anything better than that can now only be supplied by France. As I posted on the forum before, it's very likely a BARC-built CLWR-B2 shore-based reactor prototype (based on OK-650B) was already in operation as of 2018, so the production-engineering knowledge has been secured.
The modifications we independently performed to the Arihant design (resulting in the stretched S-4) show that we have absorbed the necessary knowledge for design engineering as well. Even SSN & S-5 are past the point of design freeze - yes, we may need help with design-validation & certification, but I'm sure France can help with that. That part doesn't require sharing any expertise anyway.
I don't doubt that we would prefer to maintain a relationship with Russia - I'm saying that we won't be able to.
They can't supply us with the tactical stuff we need anymore, and we can't pay them for the strategic stuff. And that's IF China even allows it. We are only looking at it from our perspective, we're not considering what the increased dependence on PRC is going to mean on Russia's side of things.
I doubt Modi & Doval would be making the moves they're making if the situation behind the curtains was as usual.
Sure, except Russia was supposed to be our ally. If it's okay for the Russians to act in their own interest at our expense, why isn't it okay for the much more powerful US to do so?
They can do that regardless of UNSC if they wanted to. The sanctions applied to Russia right now (and the tech-squeezing that's begun for China) are happening regardless of the fact they are UNSC permanent members. They can invade a country without UNSC approval, like with Iraq and bomb it back to stone age.
If West really wanted to, they can apply any order of sanctions they like on a bilateral/multilateral level. A UNSC veto in our favour is a 'nice to have' for our diplomatic defence, but that alone cannot translate into anything meaningful on the ground. If they wanted to hurt you with sanctions, they can do that regardless of what UNSC says.
What matters ultimately is our geopolitical importance vis-a-vis China. Now that China has shed any vestiges of hopefully democratizing (G-2 failed), as long as they remain a threat, West cannot afford to alienate India.
You can't say that we won't get France's vote because US/UK will pressurize them but we will get Russia's vote regardless of Chinese pressure.
Like I said, there was a time we could be reasonably assured of that. That time is now over.
We wanted to play a balancing act and work on driving a wedge between Russia & China, but the Russians have decided their course of action in Europe & painted themselves into China's corner. Nothing we can do about that anymore...at least not until we ourselves grow into a $15 trillion economy at least, one capable of substituting China as Russia's 'patron' - that is quite a ways off.
In that case, kiss goodbye to any hope of ever becoming an independent bloc. Because there will always be domestic politicians & NGOs behooved to external actors, beset on the goal of diminishing our own country's goals for their personal benefits. That's why it's important to be able to set & create your own narratives.
The US learnt that lesson the hard way after the Vietnam withdrawal.
Look at how the entire American mainstream media has fallen in line with the US Govt's view on Russia & the war in Ukraine. And anyone who claims this isn't a priority or that America is in the wrong (i.e. pushing NATO eastward) has been ostracized from the mainstream. Unless we build the capacity to do that to our own society, I'm afraid we'll never be able to pursue a truly independent foreign policy.
Even if that policy requires us to start a war or militarily intervene in a foreign country in pursuit of our geopolitical goals.
And just like that Russia has forgotten the role Pakistan played in scripting the USSR's defeat in Afghanistan? If the Russians' memory is that short-term, I'll say we have nothing to fear. Same goes if they are that desperate.
Think about it - how much oil can Pakistan really buy? How difficult was it for the Russians to say you supplied weapons to Ukraine, so no oil for you? Would have earned them a great many brownie points in New Delhi. Instead we have Lavrov coming out with his message of friendship for Pakistan.
Like I said, either the Russians are too desperate to care OR they're doing what China has told them to do. Either way, that makes it clear what we ought to be doing. If the Russians are going to look out for their own interests, so are we.
Pakistan cannot afford to buy exotic weapons, and Russia is too poor to finance the deals themselves via loans/grants so the point is moot.
That said, they sold to Pakistan anything & everything Pakistan could realistically afford - Mi-17, Mi-35 helicopters, Kornet ATGMs and of course the RD-93s without which JF-17 program wouldn't have existed. Make no mistake, Russia took full advantage of the fact we weren't in a position to defy them in early 2000s/2010s. They looked out for their own benefit every step of the way, and pinched every last penny they could.
I'm proposing that we pay them back in kind - not just to spite them, but because we also need a way to spin up our local industries in preparation for a potential conflict with China where we stand to lose our own territory. Even if Russia ends up loosing the war due to what we supply (not gonna happen, at best it will delay the Russian victory), the most they have to lose is territory that wasn't theirs to begin with.
My point is, our needs are much greater & more serious that Russia's.
Actually, now they can - because Pakistan can afford to pay in Yuan which we can't. And China won't see any problem in financing such deals, they can print and send as many Yuans as they want.
Not for us economically, no. At least not directly.
Because we aren't dependent on Russia for our own energy consumption. Our imports from the Middle East never stopped and they only went down in proportion to total imports, but not much by volumn. Most if not all the crude we were importing from Russia, we were just refining & selling off to Europe, making money as a middle man (because EU did not want to be seen dealing directly with Russia) + through value addition (importing crude, exporting refined oil).
That is going to end now though. The biggest looser in all this is actually EU.
The problem we face is strategic however. Because the end of Rupee payment does not effect just the oil purchase, but our defence trade as well.
There is no space for any mediation right now. No peace negotiations are possible until & unless Russia is somehow worn out before they can take all of Ukraine. Until then, all 'peace talks' are just for show, and the only offer the Russians place on the table is that Ukraine offers complete surrender, a permanent Russian garrison to be posted in Kiev, Russian troops & checkpoints manning the borders between Ukraine & NATO countries, and that Ukraine renounce any right to pursue independent foreign policy. In other words, giving the Russians everything they want, expect without having to fight for it.
Even if Zelensky were ready to accept such terms, his puppeteers in Washington will never allow him to. They'll have him assassinated, put the blame on Russia, and replace him with someone more willing to continue the war.
Remember that the West is in this for the sole purpose of bleeding Russia dry, nothing else.
P.S. remember that the first round of peace talks took place in Turkey of all places - who was actively involved in supplying TB-2s which caused significant losses to Russians in early stages (before they adapted anyway).
Again, that relationship is ending - not because we want it to end, but because the Russians are no longer finding themselves in a position to continue it. This is on them, not us.
I'm merely trying to come up with ways of how we can make the most of the situation, while also making a buck + giving local industry a boost in the process.
Whether we supply weapons to Ukraine or not, the relationship with Russia will go the same way.
Agreed on the geopolitics part - not on the weapons to Ukraine part.
Rest assured that Russia will be in no position to hold grudges. They are in no position to hold grudges against even Pakistan or Turkey - who are both economically & strategically far less important to Russia than India is.
But like I said, they will try to convince us otherwise, up to us whether we choose to fall for it or not - that's diplomacy 101.
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You have no idea what silt is do you. It can take over a month for the ground to dry around fields in the UK, and that's not a river bed.
Seems like in this case of this dam you did.
Relatively short crossing near the rear, vs a longer crossing nearer the front lines.
NATO wouldn't have allowed that. And NATO force concentration is strong as hell right there, Russia forces would have got crushed. The war is illegal and shouldn't have been fought at all. The resistance is such that Russia can't take anywhere without completely destroying it. The parts Russia has invaded are simply non-places now. They've liberated the residents from civilisation.
Your numbers are funny. Russia mobilised around 1 million in reality.
Ammunition depot apparently.
hromadske
💥На тимчасово окупованій території Херсонщини, у селищі Рикове, вочевидь, на залізничній станції «Партизани» біля Генічеська, горить склад із боєприпасами. «Гарна робота, хлопці! Більше вогню!», — прокоментував влучання командувач Повітряних Сил Микола Олещук Увага, у відео є ненормативна...
t.me
That shouldn't matter to us.
Russia's population or its other industries doesn't matter to us. All we care about is their energy and defence industry. The Russians mainly have to worry about the service industry.
They have a depopulation problem, but their ethnic majority will remain Russians forever. It's 111 million Russians vs 30 million others. The West and Japan are in the same boat.
We do not allow it ourselves. We only do things bilaterally as a matter of policy.
Will backfire. If the US/China force India/Russia to pick sides, India/Russia will always pick each other.
The size of the trade we have with the superpowers doesn't matter. The West happily killed its massive trade with Russia over nothing. And the Chinese are not dumb enough to do that with Russia, and the US with India.
Africa is already pushing back BRI. Yeah, they got rich lining their pockets, but the regular joe African isn't stupid.
India has the muscle. We have already injected $25B into Africa versus China's $130B.
Dunno in what way, but no, we are working with SEA on our own via the Act East policy. Our involvement in QUAD is very specific to our own security.
We are also working on a bilateral basis with each ASEAN country when it comes to security.
The US is hoping what you say happens actually. But we are not buying into that. In fact, once we become powerful enough, we want the US out of SEA.
We don't need to sell to Ukraine for that. We don't need to rely on exports either.
We haven't even scratched the surface of exotic tech. China can't interfere. And if China does, then the Russians just get 2 markets to sell to.
Anyway, Russia won't sell China exotic tech, they are a long term threat.
What? No such thing.
The war won't impact this. Delivery is still expected in 2026.
We don't yet have one. GLONASS is a global system, ISRO's Navic isn't yet in the same class.
There's a new program called GINS and that's gonna be in the GLONASS class.
Just cause we have seen some success here doesn't mean we are on par already. We have barely begun the process.
What you claimed here is something we can claim only in the mid-30s. Today, we are still nowhere. It's like manufacturing the MKI in-house and claiming we are now expert enough to make NGAD.
We have the LCA today, but we are still 25 years away from inducting an aircraft that we can say for sure is on par with the world. So it's when we make the second class of SSNs, which can be twice the displacement of the current class, can we say that we have arrived at the world stage. And that could easily be well after 2050.
So we buy time with imports. Yasen M vs Virginia B5/6, PAK DA vs B-21, PAK FA/PAK DP vs NGAD...
Space, cyber, robotics, AI, biotech... there are exotic tech around that we haven't even heard of and this rivalry could give us access to significant amounts of it. The Americans and Russians have stuff we haven't even started programs for yet.
In 10 years, we won't need 90% of the stuff imported, regardless of whether it's Russian or Western, that's a totally different subject. It's only the exotic stuff that will be pending.
You are looking at it as a zero sum game, it's not. There's nothing in China's power that gives them the power to allow or disallow Russia to do anything. Europe had bigger and closer trade relations with Russia. It ended overnight, and nothing happened to Russia.
But the US has worked against Indian interests, while the Russians have not. As I said before, India is a player in the CAR because of Russia.
India still needs to work with Russia on Afghanistan | Lowy Institute
Proximity changes the priorities for India in a conflict on the doorstep.
www.lowyinstitute.org
India and Russia have the same agenda in Afghanistan, as it has always been ever since the Taliban came to power.
No, the UNSC vote will make us a true pariah. Russia is not a pariah, only the West and those using Western financial services are not dealing with Russia today. Once an alternate reliable payment mechanism with a proper reserve currency is made, other countries will be able to trade with Russia too.
Zero sum game again? Why will Russia listen to China?
We don't need to grow into a $15T economy either. In just 5 more years, we will be able to buy Russia's entire oil and gas exports on our own.
Our way of doing things is different. We have no need to emulate the West.
Considering all the problems India has faced and still come out strong, I don't see why it can't repeat the same down the line. A lot of problems in India still persist more due to lack of education and insufficient development than anything else. Our crime rates are extremely low for our per capita income and HDI. So we shouldn't judged on the same yardstick.
The Russians are building relations wherever they can, wherever the West is losing influence. Selling some oil to Pakistan does nothing.
That was their way of pressuring India to not fall into the Western camp. There is this belief that if India does not buy weapons from Russia, then the Russians will sell to Pakistan. So that was their way of demonstrating it. In any case, it didn't work, so they stopped on their own.
No. Weapons exports are sanctionable under CAATSA. Only India got a waiver. Even China's sanctioned. So if the Pakistanis no longer want to buy Western weapons, then they can go ahead and buy Russian. We are fine with that.
They can buy oil and gas, we are fine with that too.
If the EU doesn't buy, someone else will. The end consumer doesn't matter.
Our defence trade with Russia is just $500M a year, it's not gonna get impacted. Our pending payments since 2019 to this year is just $3B and has been resolved. Future deals will be compensated by moving military production for Indian defence articles to India.
The oil and gas stuff, that's still pending, but a large chunk may come back as investments into India. It will only become a problem next year, so they can resolve it by then.
Oh, yeah, I don't think talks will do anything. As I said, it's just West and NATO wanting India to step in to mediate with Russia. It's obvious the Russians will answer that with a counteroffensive of their own. Wagner and Akhmat are already sitting across Kharkiv. They are expected to make their move at the end of summer.
Why is it ending?
Why would we give weapons to Ukraine when it's not in our interests in the first place? Forget Russia, it's literally of no use for us to arm Ukraine even if we wanted Ukraine to win. It completely destroys our entire historical position on neutrality. If we are to arm Ukraine, then we have to arm Russia as well. Is that acceptable?
You have this weird idea that Russia is somehow subservient to China without realising that Russia's comprehensive national power is greater than China's. China needs Russia more than Russia needs China. The trade they have is not sufficient to influence Russia politically. And Russia has economically put itself in such a place that it does not rely on global products to survive. They can very easily survive many years of not selling energy to China, but China cannot survive even a few months without Russian energy. It's because Russia wears the pants in the relationship that China has been unable to significantly increase its energy imports from Russia like India.
China is merely big, but their size hasn't given them any significant leverage over Russia. Rather their size means more energy consumption and greater dependence on Russia. China has just been smart enough to not become as dependent on Russia as Europe was.
I can see you're not from Europe. In Europe it's mostly quick mud. I could through a trolley on the banks and it would disappear into the mud.
Probably not before winter.
Desperate no, but they would not have allowed a Russian invasion next to the Polish border.Sure, they were desperate to go to war with Russia.
Right now, Russia relies on China for financing and electronics. If China was short of energy right now they would likely just invade Manchuria and say, "well it was ours anyway," which is technically true.
Everything China gets from Russia it could get from elsewhere. It would cost more, but it could get it. Without China Russia is bankrupt, especially now since it's blown all bridges with the west. What kind of economy would Russia have right now if it wasn't selling oil to China? And China would just buy it from the Middle East, who would increase production to meet market demands. Russia can't fall out with NATO and China and expect to have an economy.