Ukraine - Russia Conflict

randomradio said:
You mean the Wagner circus? Funny how he isn't attacking Putin.
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He hasn't got to Moscow yet. Taking over the entire Rostov region (larger than the territory than Russia holds in Ukraine) was all he could manage in one night!
 
randomradio said:
I'm now leaning towards my second theory that Wagner was targeted for a purge and they are reacting to that.
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Oh, they were. They saw how Wagner rose in power and prestige and saw the threat. This month was the last month Wagner was bankrolled by Russia, it was to stop in July as the company was supposed to fold into the Russian MoD to become a regular military unit instead of private mercenary company. Obviously Prig didn't want that to happen.

The problem is that Moscow acted too late against Wagner, because they had grown terribly dependent on it due to how badly their invasion of Ukraine was going. A sane and rational country would have thought that perhaps invading Ukraine was a bad idea; but Russia only doubled down, and now this is what they got.
 
A Person said:
Oh, they were. They saw how Wagner rose in power and prestige and saw the threat. This month was the last month Wagner was bankrolled by Russia, it was to stop in July as the company was supposed to fold into the Russian MoD to become a regular military unit instead of private mercenary company. Obviously Prig didn't want that to happen.
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Russia's paying for the miscalculation, but I don't think Prigozhin is gonna get away.

The Russians also have unused reserves in Ukraine, probably the ones being readied for a counteroffensive.

A Person said:
The problem is that Moscow acted too late against Wagner, because they had grown terribly dependent on it due to how badly their invasion of Ukraine was going. A sane and rational country would have thought that perhaps invading Ukraine was a bad idea; but Russia only doubled down, and now this is what they got.
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Any sane and rational country planning to cross the IB would have made better plans with adequate number of troops.

Imagine if the Russian army was twice the size and had attacked Western Ukraine via Belarus instead. It would have cost them just $5B a year more.
 
randomradio said:
Any sane and rational country planning to cross the IB would have made better plans with adequate number of troops.

Imagine if the Russian army was twice the size and had attacked Western Ukraine via Belarus instead. It would have cost them just $5B a year more.
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If you may recall my earliest posts on this war, I had clearly mentioned thar Russian war plan and strategy is deeply flawed. First they moved to Kiev which was very heavily defended and lost a large amount of men and material. Than their use of mercenaries instead of its regular troops was another mistake. Finally, fighting local battles without a clear AIM was a disaster.
I had written that time also that had I been incharge of this operation, I would have gone for dividing Ukraine in two halves with Dniper as the natural border. In the opening salvo I would have destroyed all the bridges across Dnieper to deny anykind of logistics to the Ukraine army located in the eatern part. After that I would have stared two thrust lines, one from south and another from north with smaller thurst lines to take over the territories in a grid like fashion. The wagner and Kodyrov militias would have been used alongwith local population to create pressure and create third fron from east against the Ukraine forces. This strategy would have seen this war getting over with complete destruction of Ukrainian armed forces and subsequent hardware sent in by Nato+ would have had no effect whatsoever on the battle as the destruction of brides on Dniper would not allow large scale supplies to cross over and boats/ferries to be used would have become easy meat for Russian gunners.
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In the first two months Russian forces had under control a much larger area than what they have today and had they used the strategy as suggested by me, they would have been able to finish this war within three months.
 
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vstol Jockey said:
If you may recall my earliest posts on this war, I had clearly mentioned thar Russian war plan and strategy is deeply flawed. First they moved to Kiev which was very heavily defended and lost a large amount of men and material. Than their use of mercenaries instead of its regular troops was another mistake. Finally, fighting local battles without a clear AIM was a disaster.
I had written that time also that had I been incharge of this operation, I would have gone for dividing Ukraine in two halves with Dniper as the natural border. In the opening salvo I would have destroyed all the bridges across Dnieper to deny anykind of logistics to the Ukraine army located in the eatern part. After that I would have stared two thrust lines, one from south and another from north with smaller thurst lines to take over the territories in a grid like fashion. The wagner and Kodyrov militias would have been used alongwith local population to create pressure and create third fron from east against the Ukraine forces. This strategy would have seen this war getting over with complete destruction of Ukrainian armed forces and subsequent hardware sent in by Nato+ would have had no effect whatsoever on the battle as the destruction of brides on Dniper would not allow large scale supplies to cross over and boats/ferries to be used would have become easy meat for Russian gunners.
View attachment 28551

In the first two months Russian forces had under control a much larger area than what they have today and had they used the strategy as suggested by me, they would have been able to finish this war within three months.
Click to expand...

For any strategy they needed troops in numbers. They should have mobilised as soon as they withdrew from Kiev at the very least.
BMD said:
Give them time.




View attachment 28553
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The cities along the route aren't protected, so they are not gonna fight Wagner. Only Moscow has troops, as they usually do.
 
vstol Jockey said:
If you may recall my earliest posts on this war, I had clearly mentioned thar Russian war plan and strategy is deeply flawed. First they moved to Kiev which was very heavily defended and lost a large amount of men and material. Than their use of mercenaries instead of its regular troops was another mistake. Finally, fighting local battles without a clear AIM was a disaster.
I had written that time also that had I been incharge of this operation, I would have gone for dividing Ukraine in two halves with Dniper as the natural border. In the opening salvo I would have destroyed all the bridges across Dnieper to deny anykind of logistics to the Ukraine army located in the eatern part. After that I would have stared two thrust lines, one from south and another from north with smaller thurst lines to take over the territories in a grid like fashion. The wagner and Kodyrov militias would have been used alongwith local population to create pressure and create third fron from east against the Ukraine forces. This strategy would have seen this war getting over with complete destruction of Ukrainian armed forces and subsequent hardware sent in by Nato+ would have had no effect whatsoever on the battle as the destruction of brides on Dniper would not allow large scale supplies to cross over and boats/ferries to be used would have become easy meat for Russian gunners.
View attachment 28551

In the first two months Russian forces had under control a much larger area than what they have today and had they used the strategy as suggested by me, they would have been able to finish this war within three months.
Click to expand...
I clearly remeber one of your statement in a post, during early day of war. ie Russia didn't win the war with in a month, then the chance of Russia winning is difficult.
 
Meanwhile...
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So 25-30k competent troops are taken out of Ukraine and morale of Russian forces in defensive trenches is low and are dizzy with what just happened... the coming days is not going to be good for them.
 
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