Ukraine - Russia Conflict

'Cause both the Kremlin and Prigozhin have lied.
When what they say goes against their narrative, it's an admission.

It may be motivated by the need to push another narrative -- Girkin wanted to boast about how useful he had been to the Russian cause, Prigozhin wanted to insist about how corrupt and incompetent the MoD staff were to justify his attempt at ousting them by force, and when Putin admitted that Wagner group was entirely funded by the Russian state, he wanted to show how much of a betrayal it was and justify seizing their materiel and forcing them to fold into the Russian army.

The sample size is not large enough. And it's largely in favour of what I said. Only 24% want the pre-war system in seperatist areas, the rest either want autonomy or amalgamation into the Russian Federation.
That was after already five years of propaganda and indoctrination by Russia, and despite that, a majority wanted to go back to Ukraine, and the trend was towards going back to the status quo ante, instead of keeping the current status quo. Despite a lot of pro-Ukraine citizens having moved away towards free land instead of staying under the boots of a mafia puppet state.

That's called cross-border infiltration. The stuff I said could happen in the Balkans.
LOL.

If Wagner sneaks into Latvia to starts trouble, it's "an insurgency". But if there's partisan activity against Russia in the Donbass, it's "cross-border infiltration" rather than insurgency.

So I take it that "insurgency" is when Russia does it, and "infiltration" is when it's not Russia.
 
When what they say goes against their narrative, it's an admission.

It may be motivated by the need to push another narrative -- Girkin wanted to boast about how useful he had been to the Russian cause, Prigozhin wanted to insist about how corrupt and incompetent the MoD staff were to justify his attempt at ousting them by force, and when Putin admitted that Wagner group was entirely funded by the Russian state, he wanted to show how much of a betrayal it was and justify seizing their materiel and forcing them to fold into the Russian army.

All sides have killed truth. That's the point.

Prigozhin claims Russia planned everything. How much of that planning was evident in Feb last year?

That was after already five years of propaganda and indoctrination by Russia, and despite that, a majority wanted to go back to Ukraine, and the trend was towards going back to the status quo ante, instead of keeping the current status quo. Despite a lot of pro-Ukraine citizens having moved away towards free land instead of staying under the boots of a mafia puppet state.

There's no proof for either claim. Only the post war era would reveal the truth.

Also, if I was a Russian resident in Donbas, even I'd prefer to move into the EU over either Ukraine or Russia. Life isn't as good in either case. Your equating of Ukraine as equivalent to the EU when the quality of life in Russia is better is disingenuous.

The pre-war per capita income of Ukraine was $13k versus Russia's was 30k. And the Russian HDI is higher. And being a bigger and more powerful country, the options the citizens have are much greater. And both societies are equally corrupt, and neither are democracies, nope, not even Ukraine. Even if Ukraine joins the EU, it's going to take them 10-15 years to catch up to today's Russia, by which time the Russians would have become developed. Being oil-rich means the improvement in quality of life will be much faster in Russia. Otoh, Ukraine being able to pick up pieces and fix itself up after the war is questionable, especially if Western Ukraine also gets caught up in the war. So your argument falls flat in the face of facts. We had already discussed this.

The locals' desire to end all the fighting isn't a reflection of where their loyalties lie.

LOL.

If Wagner sneaks into Latvia to starts trouble, it's "an insurgency". But if there's partisan activity against Russia in the Donbass, it's "cross-border infiltration" rather than insurgency.

So I take it that "insurgency" is when Russia does it, and "infiltration" is when it's not Russia.

The words benefit the West. An insurgency is against an established authority while partisans act against an occupying force. You wanna call partisan activity in occupied areas in Ukraine as an insurgency, then go ahead, that politically favours the Russians. They would prefer you call it an insurgency because that's what even they call it.

Anyway, the situation is the same. In both cases, the insurgent/partisan has to come in from a foreign territory. After the war is over, the Russians will have to deal with an insurgency as well, when they establish themselves as an authority. So the partisans today will become insurgents tomorrow. The point is no one in Donbas is challenging Russian presence, whether you wanna call them partisans or insurgents, at least it's extremely insignificant. There is partisan activity elsewhere though, like Melitopol and Kherson. The reason being Donbas has been fighting Ukraine since 2014, most people have already picked sides.
 
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All sides have killed truth. That's the point.

Prigozhin claims Russia planned everything. How much of that planning was evident in Feb last year?



There's no proof for either claim. Only the post war era would reveal the truth.

Also, if I was a Russian resident in Donbas, even I'd prefer to move into the EU over either Ukraine or Russia. Life isn't as good in either case. Your equating of Ukraine as equivalent to the EU when the quality of life in Russia is better is disingenuous.

The pre-war per capita income of Ukraine was $13k versus Russia's was 30k. And the Russian HDI is higher. And being a bigger and more powerful country, the options the citizens have are much greater. And both societies are equally corrupt, and neither are democracies, nope, not even Ukraine. Even if Ukraine joins the EU, it's going to take them 10-15 years to catch up to today's Russia, by which time the Russians would have become developed. Being oil-rich means the improvement in quality of life will be much faster in Russia. Otoh, Ukraine being able to pick up pieces and fix itself up after the war is questionable, especially if Western Ukraine also gets caught up in the war. So your argument falls flat in the face of facts. We had already discussed this.

The locals' desire to end all the fighting isn't a reflection of where their loyalties lie.



The words benefit the West. An insurgency is against an established authority while partisans act against an occupying force. You wanna call partisan activity in occupied areas in Ukraine as an insurgency, then go ahead, that politically favours the Russians. They would prefer you call it an insurgency because that's what even they call it.

Anyway, the situation is the same. In both cases, the insurgent/partisan has to come in from a foreign territory. After the war is over, the Russians will have to deal with an insurgency as well, when they establish themselves as an authority. So the partisans today will become insurgents tomorrow. The point is no one in Donbas is challenging Russian presence, whether you wanna call them partisans or insurgents, at least it's extremely insignificant. There is partisan activity elsewhere though, like Melitopol and Kherson. The reason being Donbas has been fighting Ukraine since 2014, most people have already picked sides.

Look dude, Russia has been caught in bare-faced lies multiple times during this war, over and over again. If you want to support Russia because of historical hang-ups, fine, but don't pretend you don't know who's lying and who isn't, because it just makes you look stupid.
 
Ukrainians talk about our Samp/T Mamba anti-aircraft system as more capable than even American patriots 🤩 ! Proud that our weapons are being used to save the lives of Ukrainian children. We need to step it up!!!
Which version of Aster did they get then. AFAIK, only the Block 1 NG should have loosely equivalent capabilities intercept wise. But I guess it does have a greater range than the PAC-3 CRI, and it's mobile, so there are pluses in other aspects.
 
Also, if I was a Russian resident in Donbas, even I'd prefer to move into the EU over either Ukraine or Russia. Life isn't as good in either case. Your equating of Ukraine as equivalent to the EU when the quality of life in Russia is better is disingenuous.
Quality of life is better in Ukraine than in 99% of Russia.

Also Ukraine has a realistic chance of joining the EU, so if you want to get in the EU, be a Ukrainian. And quality of life will rapidly increase after that point. Whereas in Russia, things will still remain dismal and hopeless, as they have always been, as they will always be.


Anyways, here's Putin (or one of his lookalikes) showing how good he is at maths.
 
Which version of Aster did they get then. AFAIK, only the Block 1 NG should have loosely equivalent capabilities intercept wise. But I guess it does have a greater range than the PAC-3 CRI, and it's mobile, so there are pluses in other aspects.
AFAIK, Block 1 NT is only used on ships so far. Mamba batteries still use Block 1.
 
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Dragon's teeth production faces delays.

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Two "Putin", the difference is 10 hours, one in Moscow and the other in Dagestan

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Quality of life is better in Ukraine than in 99% of Russia.

No, it's not. People from Russia don't immigrate to Ukraine. But the opposite happens. You don't see Americans rushing into Mexico or Europeans running off to Africa do you? Everybody immigrates from poorer to richer regions.

Also Ukraine has a realistic chance of joining the EU, so if you want to get in the EU, be a Ukrainian. And quality of life will rapidly increase after that point. Whereas in Russia, things will still remain dismal and hopeless, as they have always been, as they will always be.

Ukraine won't join the EU for at least 10-15 years. Or even if they do join, it's gonna come with severe restrictions, the first of which will be zero access to the Schengen Area, like Romania and Bulgaria. And the funny thing is the HDI in Romania and Bulgaria is the same as Russia even though they both joined the EU 15 years ago. Bulgaria's HDI is much closer to Ukraine's instead.

So, no, the facts are already established. Romania, Bulgaria and Russia had similar per capita numbers in 2009 (13730, 16420, 18760), 2 years after joining the EU and a year after the crisis, and both have grown at roughly the same rate as Russia.

And here's a cost of living comparison between Mumbai, Bucharest and Moscow.


In Mumbai, all services are cheaper than Moscow and people have lower purchasing power. In Bucharest, everything is more expensive and still have even lower purchasing power than Moscow. So, no, even in Romania, the quality of life is inferior to that of Russia.

And when compared to Kiev, while services are cheaper, the purchasing power is ridiculously low.

This stuff's based on hard data.

For Ukraine to catch up to Russia, it's gonna take them 30 years even with EU assistance. The numbers are here for you to see.
 
Things are going to be intresting, If the News is true...
TBH, I think Storm Shadow is already capable of hitting targets at ATACMS ranges unless there version is limited to 250km or something. The question is whether they'll allow Sevastopol to be targeted. That would make Russia's war really expensive, really fast.

Interestingly, it's always after a Russian strike hits civilians that they discuss giving Ukraine longer range missiles. ;)
 
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