Ukraine - Russia Conflict
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ChrisO_wiki (@[email protected])
Attached: 1 image 1/ Russian front-line hospitals are experiencing acute shortages of personnel and supplies. Only officers are reportedly evacuated to Russia, with ordinary soldiers being treated without anaesthesia or drugs. Volunteers are providing most of the medical supplies. ⬇️
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ChrisO_wiki (@[email protected])
Attached: 1 image 1/ Yevgeny Prigozhin's business empire is rapidly being dismantled. It's lost its contract to provide (rotten, infected, adulterated) food to the Russian army, and his media empire is shutting down. Thousands of his staff have been made redundant, many with no severance pay. ⬇️
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Lewisite - Wikipedia
Production of quantities greater than 100 grams per year per facility were banned by Schedule 1 of the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention. When the convention entered force in 1997
There are reports coming out that the 9 Western-equipped brigades will soon begin their offensive. I guess it's 'cause the UAF is now very close to the first line, and Western tech is necessary to defeat them.
This could allow the UAF to breach the first line and head towards Tokmak. The UAF has also changed strategy. They have decided to focus on killing more Russian troops and equipment on the line of contact before the main push. It's 'cause they are still struggling to reach the main defensive line. The Russians are also focusing more of their drone attacks on UAF artillery than vehicles.
Of course, the minute the main UAF offensive begins, it's very likely that Russia will follow suit in Kreminna. It will force the UAF to move some of their reserves towards Kreminna, taking the pressure off of Zapo for the Russians.
@Picdelamirand-oil
This could allow the UAF to breach the first line and head towards Tokmak. The UAF has also changed strategy. They have decided to focus on killing more Russian troops and equipment on the line of contact before the main push. It's 'cause they are still struggling to reach the main defensive line. The Russians are also focusing more of their drone attacks on UAF artillery than vehicles.
Of course, the minute the main UAF offensive begins, it's very likely that Russia will follow suit in Kreminna. It will force the UAF to move some of their reserves towards Kreminna, taking the pressure off of Zapo for the Russians.
@Picdelamirand-oil
The focus remains on artillery hunt. The daily Russian loss estimates published by Ukraine have consistently claimed 30+ artillery destroyed for several weeks now.
Of course it's also estimated that Russia still has about 1500 artillery pieces along the frontline, so it'd take a while to get rid of them all, even if Ukraine's destruction numbers are accurate and not exaggerated. And in the meantime, Russia can still send in more. Russia also tends to repurpose tanks as impromptu howitzers, so there's that too.
Also, Russian MLRS suffer a lot less than regular artillery pieces, since they have a longer range and are consequently usually further away from the front.
The "special equipment" category is interesting as well, as it includes things like mine dispersers. Those relatively rare vehicles are very actively sought out by Ukrainian reconnaissance, as taking them all out is a necessity to breach Russian defenses.
Of course it's also estimated that Russia still has about 1500 artillery pieces along the frontline, so it'd take a while to get rid of them all, even if Ukraine's destruction numbers are accurate and not exaggerated. And in the meantime, Russia can still send in more. Russia also tends to repurpose tanks as impromptu howitzers, so there's that too.
Also, Russian MLRS suffer a lot less than regular artillery pieces, since they have a longer range and are consequently usually further away from the front.
The "special equipment" category is interesting as well, as it includes things like mine dispersers. Those relatively rare vehicles are very actively sought out by Ukrainian reconnaissance, as taking them all out is a necessity to breach Russian defenses.
Thing is, on a strategic level, trading Kupyansk for Tokmak would be a massive win for Ukraine. It'd mean losing some territory they had already lost and reconquered, and which didn't change all that much; but cutting off Russian logistics across the "landbridge" by bringing all of it under fire control.
It's naturally fake.
In order to cut off the land bridge, the UAF has to physically occupy Berdyansk. Tokmak is merely the means to achieving that. The UAF has raised 12 offensive brigades for that purpose, with 9 of them equipped with Western tech. They total to around 50k, perhaps another 5k+ in reserve. Merely retaking Tokmak, without moving towards Berdyansk would mean failure. The UAF has already resorted to attrition warfare against potentially superior numbers. So the performance of the 9 brigades will be very important. In Zapo, Russia's main forces are along the first defensive line, at least 100k in strength.
The Russians have assembled a force of 180k in Luhansk, with 120k meant for an offensive.
And then, Belarus is roughly doubling the size of its army to 80k. And raising a TDF force of 100-150k.
And Russia's raising a whole new army with 3 new divisions, a new army corps (a unit with 5 brigade-equivalent forces), and 26 new brigades, which will be used to convert 13 existing brigades into divisions. That would easily number well above 160k combat soldiers alone.
While raising new units fully will take up to 3 years, but quite a bit of that will become ready within the next few months. And with Wagner planning on raising its forces again, we are not only looking at a full-scale invasion in the east, but also from the north. Russia may very well be preparing to finish the war very quickly. We could see the Russians attacking with well over 150k troops either this winter or the coming summer.
The lines themselves are not an issue, it's the mine spamming that Russia has done. Without the land mines they'd be in Melitopol already.
They already have separate reserves to bolster the North and Kreminna.