Ukraine - Russia Conflict

The Ukrainian separatists in the Donbass were a small rabble of terrorists, not a population of tens of millions, Russia intervened and made it a full scale war. Without Russian intervention, the separatists would have brushed aside and peace would have followed. Kashmiri or Khalistani separatists are a much closer comparison. Much less people in the Donbass would have died without Russian intervention.

It's not a damn genocide when a small minority takes up arms against the majority in a country and the majority fights back. JFC, if that's the definition, then any criminal in any country shot by law enforcement would be genocide.

No, a local insurgency would have started instead. Donbas still has Russians. And this would have eventually sucked Russia into a war 'cause of refugees.

Kashmir and Khalistan were cross-border, like what I'm expecting to happen in the Baltics. A more apt comparison would be the IRA for the above situation. The residents in Donbas would have seen the Ukrainians as occupiers.

It was always autonomy or insurgency or war. And it wasn't up to the Ukrainians anyway, it's the West who decided the outcome.
 
All Russians are already being persecuted under the language law. Their identity is already being suppressed.

China started the same way in Tibet and Xinjiang.

The next step would be to pack minority regions with majority population, like what Pakistan did in PoK by moving Sunnis into Shia majority areas and what the Chinese call Sinofication or Hanisation.


So yeah, Ukraine now finds itself in common with Pakistan and China even without having occupied Donbas, where the majority of the Russians live.



Those are Russian prisoners from Storm Z, not the separatists.



There's not gonna be much of Russian-speakers left in "free" Ukraine eventually. It's gonna be a nice little Nazi garden in a decade.
Quit pretending Putin is trying to save people from a genocide. His troops have created mass graves, he's now started concentration camps in the occupied regions for people without Russian passports. He locks up and kills dissenters. What about this do you not understand?
 
No, a local insurgency would have started instead. Donbas still has Russians. And this would have eventually sucked Russia into a war 'cause of refugees.
Yeah, much like the insurgency in Kashmir, relatively small compared to the population, basically just some terrorist attacks, which would have been countered by Ukrainian law enforcement. There was no reason for Russia to get 'sucked in' unless it wanted to insert itself there for gain.
Kashmir and Khalistan were cross-border, like what I'm expecting to happen in the Baltics. A more apt comparison would be the IRA for the above situation. The residents in Donbas would have seen the Ukrainians as occupiers.
When you say 'residents in the Donbass' you're talking about a collection of terrorists small in comparison to the population there. How many Russian agents were already embedded among them is also unclear. Khalistan and Kashmir are part cross-border and part internal, just as no insurgency in Ukraine could have survived without a cross-border element - they can't pull weapons out of their ar5se.

IRA - another sh!t analogy. The IRA were fighting for Irish unity not separatism on behalf of an external power, you're clutching at straws.
It was always autonomy or insurgency or war. And it wasn't up to the Ukrainians anyway, it's the West who decided the outcome.
It didn't need to be at all. The residents there could have lived happily and peacefully as part of Ukraine. It's not like Russian citizens have better rights or welfare in case you didn't notice.
 
All Russians are already being persecuted under the language law. Their identity is already being suppressed.
Be quiet with this nonsense. Making Ukrainian the official language of Ukraine is not oppression. JFC, it's not like Hitler was criticised for having German as the national language of Germany, nor did the Jews complain about speaking it.

In a democracy the majority wins, the dog wags its tail, the tail does not wag the dog.
 
Green = liberated, blue = liberated within last 2 weeks.


The occupied area stood at 18.055% 2 weeks ago.

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Inch by inch, Ukraine is re-taking its territory. Note change in stats from earlier today.

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Those are Russian prisoners from Storm Z, not the separatists.
Nope, the conscripts from the DPR/LPR were used this way long before Russia started emptying its prisons. After all, while they didn't count as Russian forces, they didn't count as Russian losses... The puppet DPR/LPR regime mobilized long before Russia itself did precisely because they didn't get to count as "real Russians".

By now, of course, everyone gets to be sacrificed in meat assaults; the poorly-trained mobilized are sent to fight where survival seems unlikely, so as to keep what remains of the actually trained troops for more "important" combat missions.

All Russians are already being persecuted under the language law. Their identity is already being suppressed.
There's no LOL big enough to adequately reply to this silliness.

Russia has done more to suppress their identity than Ukraine ever could; mostly by making them deliberately and consciously decide to renounce any sort of identity tie to the country of ravening monsters on their Eastern border.


Pretty interesting interview with a Ukrainian artillery captain:
Subtitles are in English, even if the Youtube interface believes it's in Russian.

Meanwhile in Russia:
Russians serving in the military have effectively been stripped of their legal rights and serve without recourse to justice. A group of Russian lawyers say that government restrictions and the sheer volume of cases have left them effectively powerless to defend the rights of those fighting for Russia.​
A 'Committee of Military Lawyers' was formed in the western Russian city of Vladimir in the autumn of 2022 to provide legal assistance to those who were being mobilised. Since then, the five women lawyers on the committee have been helping with a range of legal issues.​
However, in a "cry from the heart" posted to their Telegram channel on 9 July, the lawyers describe frankly the obstacles that the government and military have placed in their way. They admit that they are overwhelmed and unable to help most applicants.​
Their comments are worth reviewing to highlight how the Russian state has systematically curtailed the protections of those fighting for it. They write that the situation has evolved through four phases over each of the last four seasons.​
In the autumn of 2022, they write, there was "general confusion (prosecutors would throw up their hands and say "we don't know how it should be"), confusion in the heads of officials and a mess on the ground." They nonetheless managed to get some things done to help their clients.​
The Russian government cracked down on the lawyers over the winter of 2022-23:​
"Our legislators woke up, worked hard, and instead of streamlining the legal field of military affairs, they eradicated it altogether. Well, that is in general. They tightened laws aimed at suppressing any discontent in the ranks of servicemen and their relatives, untied the hands of officials in relation to prisoners sent to the front, and not only to them. People were intimidated. And so were we."​
"You probably don't know, but lawyers dealing with such cases are under the scrutiny of various bodies, because we are in the way."​
Things continued in the same way in the spring of 2023: "We went to the courts for payments to the wounded, we wrote complaints about the lack of allowances, we tried to put things in order with the registration of servicemen, who, in fact, became phantoms in the ranks of the Armed Forces because of the mess and loss of documents, in particular."​
"Spring conscription began, and our help was needed there too."​
Ukraine's counter-offensive in the summer of 2023 made things drastically worse.​
"Summer came. And we are drowning under the flood of appeals. Their character has seriously changed. You probably know what we're talking about. Soldiers have been at the front for months. Many are missing in action. There are many prisoners and mobilised men among them. The situation at the front is very difficult, it's no secret."​
"And the mess since autumn hasn't gone away. It has become even worse. And we have three factors today that make it impossible to provide legal aid in the true sense of the word:​
1. The difficult situation at the front​
2. Closure of any information about the fighters.​
3. Inability and inability of the bodies supervising the observance of the rights of servicemen to fulfil their duties (yesterday we received 25 complaints sent to various instances, which were never answered. These were replies and forwardings to other instances)."​
"The lawyers lament that "in the current circumstances, it is simply impossible to help in the legal field in many cases. ... But tell me, dear subscribers, what else can we do if your husbands, sons and brothers are thrown into battle, threatening extrajudicial reprisals? These are the appeals that are the most numerous now."​
"Do not expect magic from us, we do not make decisions for you and your relatives and do not give advice outside the legal field. We will always listen to you, study the situation, assess it, make every effort to resolve it, but in the end only the servicemen themselves can make certain decisions and implement them. This is war."​
Source:​

People are starting to grumble. They're starting to notice that the soldiers are not actually getting paid, and that when there's a complaint about this, the outcome is not compensation but further threats and intimidation.


Relatives of mobilised Russians say the Ukrainians have inflicted huge casualties in their counter-offensive, with even lightly wounded Russians dying for lack of first aid. Food, water and ammunition is barely available and soldiers are not being rotated for months on end.​
The relatives, who are from the Russian Far East, say that their male relatives were mobilised in late September 2022 but "did not receive proper training." The men were sent to Ukraine with the 60th Independent Motorised Rifle Brigade only ten days after being called up.​
The relatives point out that Russian government promises that the men would be granted leave have not been met. Instead of being rotated, most have been on the front line for eight months without a break. By 1 June 2023, only a third of the brigade had been granted leave.​
"For a full eight months they worked on the first line of defence. During this time there was not a single rotation of mobilised men. All the time they were under fire from the Armed Forces of Ukraine."​
"The reasons for not sending people on leave were the anticipation of an offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Despite the lack of replacements for the men, the difficult situation at the front did not prevent the brigade leaders themselves from resting and going on leave. During their time in defence, our men did not leave a single position. Stoically endured all the difficulties of the situation. Knocked down a quadcopter.​
"The fighters took prisoners of war in the woods under shelling while in contact [with Ukrainian forces]. The distinguished lads were presented with awards. The families of the mobilised men received letters of commendation for excellent service ... It was impossible for them to stay out of their dugouts during the day due to artillery shelling and at night the AFU snipers were active. Food delivery was difficult, in difficult conditions The guys were doing their job, holding their positions.​
"From 23 May, the massive offensive of the AFU began along most of the front line. The main blow came to the positions of the 60th brigade because of incorrect information about the number of AFU soldiers, as well as their heavy artillery. The guys who were on the first line of defence were surrounded and had to get out of an encirclement. Some guys had to swim across the river, as a result of which they drowned. There are guys who were taken captive under physical and moral violence.​
"The guys were forced to record video messages addressed to the Russian government and the Ministry of Defence during the battle, as well as during open engagements with the enemy and artillery fire. Support by [Russian] artillery fire left much to be desired. The brigade waited for reinforcements, or rather tanks, for three days, but they never came. Caught under a barrage of artillery fire from the AFU, our guys suffered huge losses of personnel.​
"Their comrades were killed before their eyes. They saw limbs, arms, legs, heads torn off, but there was no way to help the wounded. From shock, pain and loss of blood the wounded died on the battlefield. Even lightly wounded soldiers with shrapnel wounds died. After first aid the wounded were sent back to their positions.​
"All of the above circumstances led to critical losses of both personnel and destruction of heavy guns. The units that survived due to the strength of the battalions were forced to retreat, after which, without reinforcing the battalions, providing combat equipment, and replenishing the units with guns, the brigade command gave new orders to go to the line of contact with the enemy without artillery support.​
"Soldiers are sent to the sawmills 'on vacation', to wait for reinforcements, without supplying them with everything they need. As a result, under the pouring rain, documents are ruined, clothes and personal belongings fall into disrepair. There is no possibility of drying them, as a result of which the guys have colds and diseases. They have water and food in very limited quantities."​
The women complain of the "arbitrariness and lawlessness" of the brigade's commanders, whom they say are sending their men on an "offensive project from which they will not return."​
Some of the men have refused to return to the front line and have filmed themselves imprisoned in a basement. They say they were "thrown into tree lines like dogs". The men are being threatened with charges for desertion.​
According to the relatives: "Our surviving men are now demoralised and morally exhausted. In addition to limited communication with family and friends, the guys need medical and psychological assistance in urgent rehabilitation to restore their health and psyche.​
"But instead of all this, [battalion commander] Gavrilov and other commanders, having unlimited power over the mobilised men with their threats of blackmail, force them to go to the front line without proper uniforms and weapons and equipment.​
"Our men are being sent to unjustified sacrifices. Our men do not refuse to take part, but are ready to fulfil their duty in front of and follow the competent orders of their commanders. This is a sure step towards a loss of life that will do no good. We ask [army leaders and regional governors] to conduct a check on the competence of the command of the 60th Brigade. And stop irresponsibly risking the lives of citizens of the Russian Federation, the defenders of the Motherland."​
Source:​

Those are mobilized, not prisoners. You can see they're treated no better.


As time goes, Russia will only become more and more brutal against its own people, because that's the only algorithm that the rulers of the Kremlin know. It was true of the Tsars, it was true of the Soviet, it is true of Putin.

No, a local insurgency would have started instead.
No, it wouldn't. There would never have been an insurgency without FSB agents creating one. That's why it was the FSB that created this insurgency. And that's why it was made of Russian agents.
And this would have eventually sucked Russia into a war 'cause of refugees.
Nope, because without Russian meddling, the situation would never have become so bad as to create refugees.

The residents in Donbas would have seen the Ukrainians as occupiers.
Reminder that a very, very large majority of Donbas citizens voted in favor of Ukrainian independence in 1991. Yes, including in Donetsk and Luhansk oblast, we're talking 83% in favor of independence here.

The idea that because their language is Russian, and because they had (note the past tense) a relatively good opinion of Russia, then they wanted to become Russian and see their land annexed by Putinistan, is the narrative told by Putin. But it has no validity.

And it has even less validity now, as the people can realize what it means to be a subject of Russia, compared to the freedom and safety found in the West. Putin's war of aggression has helped break a lot of delusions, and changed a lot of minds about how Russia should be seen. This is why Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO after having been neutral for so long.
 
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Despite what propagandists like @BMD and trolls like Sweetie aka @Innominate think, another Euro military expert agrees with my assertion that Russia is coming out of this war stronger.

Last 5 minutes of this video:


@randomradio the last 10 minutes of this video matches with your assessment and prediction regarding RuAF(y).
Stronger?
Economically, not.
In kind of demography, not.
Except in africa (where Wagner is unable to peace the country from islamist extremists), the russian image is fading.
So where?
 


 
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How so?
@randomradio Take note. Russia has quantity not quality. The greater accuracy and associated surveillance of Ukraine's military allows it to tie Russia with far less artillery pieces. When the numbers equal out, Russia will get pounded into the dirt.
 
The only frustrating part is they only have like at best 6-8/SU-24's aircraft that can launch the shadow and scalp which means you can't launch a massive cruise missile strike.
They're doing a good enough job with just those. It's like the Russian air defence just can't see Storm Shadow at all. I honestly never expected it to be this effective. How big a part MALD has played in that is a good question.
 
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