Ukraine - Russia Conflict

[randomradio]

The Second World is the Warsaw Pact, and China is not the Second World. Moreover, Russia's decline is indisputable, and I may not understand the economy very well. However, the vast majority of Russia's exports are oil and other natural resources, just like those Islamic feudal countries in the Middle East, and even not as healthy as Iran's economy

Communism in general was considered Second World.

Incorrect about Russia's economy. Russia's oil revenues are down only 'cause the global economy is performing poorly. Oil prices mimic the performance of the global economy. Considering that, the prices are stable due to reduction in production. If the US, EU and ultimately, China, go back on track, then oil prices will rise, and Russia's currently bigger marketshare will increase its revenues.

No matter what's said, Russia's marketshare is now bigger than its pre-war sales, more than enough to compensate for the drop in gas sales.

 

[randomradio]

Okay, Apr 2021 7.6bn bbls for ~€14bn vs Apr 2023 8.3bn bbls for ~€14bn. But oil prices were lower in 2021 as were other costs, so revenue should have been lower. Net revenue now is even less with the higher associated costs.

Russia's oil and gas budget revenues fell by almost 36% year over year in May

Russia's federal budget revenues from oil and gas, the lifeblood of its economy, fell almost 36% in May from the same month last year and declined by 12% from April, the finance ministry said on Monday, as a result of a lower profit-based oil tax.

www.reuters.com

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View attachment 28900

Evidence? Please also provide evidence of actual revenue in June. If your making less revenue than before, then exporting more product just makes it even worse not better.

Revenue is cyclical. After a high in 2022, up to $110, it's become low, up to $75. It's expected to increase again. So if you want to know how much Russia will earn this year, it will only be known by the end of the year.

Buyers prefer a price of $60. Sellers prefer $100. So during slowdowns, like now, producers cut production to keep oil in the $70-80 range so it's both affordable and profitable.

Russia needs to sell oil at 4788 rubles or $53 at this point in order to meet their spending expectations for the year. Anything above that is a bonus for them.

 

[randomradio]

Not OP, but anyway, from the Russian Ministry of Finance:

Предварительная оценка исполнения федерального бюджета за январь-июнь 2023 года

minfin.gov.ru

Translation: Oil and gas revenues amounted to 3,382 billion rubles and decreased by 47% YoY due to a high base year-on-year comparison, lower Urals oil quotes, lower prices, and lower natural gas exports. Monthly dynamics of oil and gas revenues are gradually reaching a trajectory that corresponds to their baseline level (8 trillion rubles per year).

The cumulative oil and gas revenue amounted to 1,635 billion roubles for Jan-March, 2,282 billion roubles for Jan-April, 2,853 billion roubles for Jan-May, and 3,382 billion roubles for Jan-June 2023.

So the oil and gas revenue was 647 billion roubles in April, 571 billion roubles in May, and 529 billion roubles in June.

So, Russia's oil and gas revenues have been decreasing m-o-m from April to May to June.

And just as a side note excl. 2022, Russia's oil and gas revenues for the Jan-June period were higher in 2021 (3776 billion roubles), 2019 (4121.9 billion roubles), and 2018 (4691.7 billion roubles).

Lower revenue 'cause:

Global Economy to Slow Further Amid Signs of Resilience and China Re-opening

The fight against inflation is starting to pay off, but central banks must continue their efforts

www.imf.org

For advanced economies, the slowdown will be more pronounced, with a decline from 2.7 percent last year to 1.2 percent and 1.4 percent this year and next. Nine out of 10 advanced economies will likely decelerate.

Russia's marketshare has increased due to the recovery in emerging markets, like India. But the rest are yet to recover. So, you an see that even though the emerging market is doing well, it's not big enough to offset the drop in growth of advanced economies. And recovery is expected to happen only in 2024.

As per the graph on the right, the EU is doing very poorly. So a major recovery is needed there. The advanced economies in Asia also need to pick up.

 

[Rajput Lion]

Despite what propagandists like @BMD and trolls like Sweetie aka @Innominate think, another Euro military expert agrees with my assertion that Russia is coming out of this war stronger.

Last 5 minutes of this video:

@randomradio the last 10 minutes of this video matches with your assessment and prediction regarding RuAF.

 

[randomradio]

The weaker force was 2014 Ukraine, not 2014 Russia. The people from Donbas had the Russian army fighting for them and deciding for them what they are supposed to prefer. And they were not on the retreat, but on the offensive.

Russia became a player in Donbas much later. The LPR/DPR forces lost a lot of territory in 2014.

Look at what the separatists controlled in 2014:

Siege of Sloviansk - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Had it not been for the Russians stepping in much later, even the remaining Donbas regions would have fallen.

The fact is Donbas separatists are ex-UAF. There was no Russia in this fight.

There wouldn't even have been a fight today had the UAF not invaded Donbas. But I personally believe in hindsight the Russians should have entered Donbas along with Crimea in 2014.

LOL nope. That fall of Debaltseve you speak off? You remember when it happened? It happened after the Minsk II agreement was signed. A ceasefire agreement was signed on Feb 12. The so-called "separatists", who are not and have never been separatists but Russian soldiers with a change of badge and Wagner mercenaries, used heavy artillery to pummel the city, and when the Ukrainian troops were forced to retreat they ambushed them and slaughtered as many as they could. Definitely the good-faith posture of a side that signed a cease-fire, welcomes peace, and seeks an end to the conflict.

"Yes, we agree to a cease-fire and a political process, but first we're gonna slaughter you guys a little and take some territory, and after, pinky promise, we'll stop attacking you, lol. Trust me bro."

Russia has never been a good faith actor; everything Russia says is a lie, they will never honor their agreements and they cannot be trusted.

As per the Russians, without a conclusion in Debaltseve, any treaty would fail 'cause the UAF were surrounded and the situation would have given enough cause to break the treaty. So they quickly mopped the place up before the agreement was in place.

And you can see from the map above how important Debaltseve was to Donbas. It's the main village that connects Donetsk City with Luhansk City. There's no way a ceasefire would have worked if the UAF controlled it.

It's not spectacular like the Kharkiv offensive, but nobody serious could expect a Blitzkrieg when assistance to Ukraine has been held to a rigorous "too little, too late" standard and Russia has had the time to heavily fortify the frontline. So what Ukraine's doing is the best they can do with the hand they're dealt, and that's degrading Russian fighting capacity by destroying ammo and fuel depots, command posts, and Russia's most valuable equipment -- artillery, air defenses, etc. The aim is not to breach through enemy line and penetrate deep, because that'd be just suicidal. The aim is to exert constant pressure until the defense lines crumble, which they do slowly -- but still much faster than Ukrainian defense lines crumbled in Bakhmut...

As Russia is trying to hold the line (instead of retreating to the more heavily-fortified positions they have in the rear) and pursue its own offensive in the meantime (near Kupyansk notably, as well as in Avdeevka which they've been attacking fruitlessly since 2014), Russian losses are still very high, and sooner or later Russia will have to go through another round of "partial mobilization" because otherwise those heavily defensive lines in the south will just not be manned anymore.

I'm more inclined to believe the "too little, too late" is deliberate to keep the war going.

Russia doesn't need a new mobilisation, they are tripling the size of the army anyway. So they are already doing something akin to it. As per the Kremlin, the last known figure is almost 200,000 new troops signed contracts with the MoD, separate from Wagner and Akhmat.

Germany going through a slight contraction is not "even worse" than what Russia has inflicted itself.

I do not worry that much for the German economy. This is hurting them less than the Covid crisis. And on the whole, EU economy is growing -- not by much, but still growing -- and more than what was anticipated before.

Spring 2023 Economic Forecast: an improved outlook amid persistent challenges

The European economy continues to show resilience in a challenging global context. Lower energy prices, abating supply constraints and a strong labour market supported moderate growth in the first quarter of 2023, dispelling fears of a recession and lifting the growth outlook for 2023 and 2024.

economy-finance.ec.europa.eu

Merkel has been harshly criticized for being directly responsible for Europe's stagnation and growing dependence on foreign powers -- Russia for energy, China for trade, and America for military protection. Every time there was an opportunity to consolidate the EU, increase solidarity, improve things for the whole continent, she said "nein" in the name of German selfishness. The status quo favored Germany, so who cares if it created crises like in Greece or helped cause Brexit?

So of course she's trying to come up with some "actually, I was doing something to help!" but who in the EU would ever believe her?

And the talks were a sham because they involved Russia. Russia is not a good faith actor, all they say is a lie, they never honor their word, and they're always plotting to betray you. Russia is not, and has never been, the victim here.

The circumstances show it was the Russians who acted in good faith. They were talking about Minsk until they began the buildup. The West started publicly talking about Minsk only after the Russians operationally deployed in large numbers by Jan. Shows all the good faith right there.

Lol, Finland gives the clues.

Finland's president says Minsk agreement should be looked at again

The Minsk agreement should be revisited to find a solution to the ongoing crisis between Ukraine and Russia, Finland's President Sauli Niinisto said on Friday.

www.reuters.com

Niinisto said the Minsk agreement had been somewhat forgotten for several years but in his most recent call with Putin the Russian leader had emphasized its importance again.

"A possible solution and the most possible solution (to the current situation) could be the Minsk agreement to be fulfilled or that there would be significant progress in its implementation," Niinisto said, in conclusion of his talks with Putin.

So Putin wanted Minsk agreement, but the West had "forgotten" apparently. All 'cause they were buying time.

Then Putin publicly buried Minsk agreement 3 days before the invasion. Something the West had buried "several years earlier". Nah, mate, your govts have sold you a bridge, and you guys have bought it.

 

[randomradio]

Yeah, that's not happening. Or rather, to qualify for accession, Turkey has to go through the whole validation of EU acquis communautaire, and that's not happening because Turkey doesn't actually want to comply. Can you imagine? Stopping the repression of the Kurds? Ceasing the occupation of Northern Cyprus? Actually respecting human rights, including freedom of speech, the rule of law, and democracy? Turkey's never gonna accept those things.

Also, EU and NATO are separate organizations so it doesn't make sense to try to use the one as a bargaining chip for the other.

I guess they think this is their best chance.

Even if they are not serious, it still gives them a negotiations advantage with the EU elsewhere, and they get to earn Russia's favour 'cause they are buying time by preventing Sweden's entry into NATO. Although I think it's just a formality at this point.

 

[randomradio]

As I predicted, Russia is getting stronger as the war progresses. Very interesting read: 7 Lessons Russia Learned From Its Epic Failures in Ukraine

@randomradio @BMD @A Person

Shows all the problems were from an army that wasn't prepared to fight a war.

 

[A Person]

Russia became a player in Donbas much later.

Russia *censored*ing instigated the whole thing. All the leaders of the so-called LPR and DPR were FSB agents. We've gone over this already.

The fact is Donbas separatists are ex-UAF. There was no Russia in this fight.

Blatant lie. The separatists were Russian nationals from the FSB and the Russian armed forces, plus some criminals they broke out of prison. The military materiel, such as the Buk they used to shoot down an airliner, was also directly from the Russian army, and we have tons of evidence for this.

There wouldn't even have been a fight today had the UAF not invaded Donbas.

There wouldn't even have been a fight today had Russia not tried to take over the Donbas with a "plausibly deniable" operation.

But I personally believe in hindsight the Russians should have entered Donbas along with Crimea in 2014.

I believe in hindsight that Russia should have respected international law and the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

And you can see from the map above how important Debaltseve was to Donbas. It's the main village that connects Donetsk City with Luhansk City. There's no way a ceasefire would have worked if the UAF controlled it.

And? That's not a problem if there's an actual willingness to solve issues politically instead of militarily. But Russia was never interested in solving the issue politically; mostly because it always knew the only way they could impose their views about how society should work (that is to say, all the wealth from Donbas should flow up to Moscow and end in the pockets of a few oligarchs) was militarily.

 

[BMD]

Revenue is cyclical. After a high in 2022, up to $110, it's become low, up to $75. It's expected to increase again. So if you want to know how much Russia will earn this year, it will only be known by the end of the year.

It's down relative to the same periods last year and the year before, despite more oil being exported.

Buyers prefer a price of $60. Sellers prefer $100. So during slowdowns, like now, producers cut production to keep oil in the $70-80 range so it's both affordable and profitable.

Russia needs to sell oil at 4788 rubles or $53 at this point in order to meet their spending expectations for the year. Anything above that is a bonus for them.

They already exceeded their 2023 deficit prediction in Q1 alone.

 

[BMD]

Despite what propagandists like @BMD and trolls like Sweetie aka @Innominate think, another Euro military expert agrees with my assertion that Russia is coming out of this war stronger.

Last 5 minutes of this video:

@randomradio the last 10 minutes of this video matches with your assessment and prediction regarding RuAF.

Less tanks, less artillery, less money, less people and the war is still going, and their enemy kills them at a faster rate every year, and becomes stronger, pushing them off ground they occupied. Meanwhile more countries join NATO and Turkey has told them to go f*ck themselves.

Had it not been for the Russians stepping in much later, even the remaining Donbas regions would have fallen.

And so it should have, it belongs to Ukraine, not Russia. Russian troops were there already, right from the get-go.

 

[BMD]

 

[randomradio]

Russia *censored*ing instigated the whole thing. All the leaders of the so-called LPR and DPR were FSB agents. We've gone over this already.

That doesn't matter. People actually joined up and fought back. In Kashmir too, we have Pakistani agents, but no takers for their call to arms.

Blatant lie. The separatists were Russian nationals from the FSB and the Russian armed forces, plus some criminals they broke out of prison. The military materiel, such as the Buk they used to shoot down an airliner, was also directly from the Russian army, and we have tons of evidence for this.

Mix of internal and external. Including with Russian supplied weapons. But a lot of the defectors were Ukrainian in origin.

There wouldn't even have been a fight today had Russia not tried to take over the Donbas with a "plausibly deniable" operation.


I believe in hindsight that Russia should have respected international law and the territorial integrity of Ukraine.


And? That's not a problem if there's an actual willingness to solve issues politically instead of militarily. But Russia was never interested in solving the issue politically; mostly because it always knew the only way they could impose their views about how society should work (that is to say, all the wealth from Donbas should flow up to Moscow and end in the pockets of a few oligarchs) was militarily.

Then the Russians wouldn't have focused so much on the Minsk agreements, even until the last moment. Nor would the Finnish President have spoken about "restarting" the Minsk dialogue. "Restarting" being the keyword.

Merkel and Poroshenko saying with their own mouths the talks were all a sham is already enough.

View attachment 28961

It's down relative to the same periods last year and the year before, despite more oil being exported.

They already exceeded their 2023 deficit prediction in Q1 alone.

Let's see once Europe stops stagnating.

 

[randomradio]

And so it should have, it belongs to Ukraine, not Russia. Russian troops were there already, right from the get-go.

That's the same argument Pakistan has made about both Kashmir and Bangladesh, and used genocide as a means of asserting their claims, both genocides supported by the US without any repercussions. The same was gonna happen in Donbas had the Ukrainians taken control, once again supported by the US, while conveniently ignoring Ukraine's language law and its persecution of minorities.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Let's see once Europe stops stagnating.

Growth prospects revised upwards for 2023
Just as the European Union was gradually recovering from the economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine erupted at the end of February 2022, slowing the continent's economic growth. The European economy suffered from rising commodity and energy prices and the disruption of world trade. Nevertheless, "despite exceptional negative shocks, the EU economy has avoided the contraction that the autumn forecasts predicted for the fourth quarter", according to the European Commission. The annual growth rate for 2022 is estimated at 3.5% for both the EU and the eurozone.

At the start of 2023, the EU economy was in better shape than forecast in the autumn. The growth outlook (provisional estimates) for this year is 0.8% for the EU and 0.9% for the eurozone. Although Europe remains exposed to the turbulence, it would narrowly avoid recession. The forecasts also revise inflation projections slightly downwards, for both 2023 and 2024.

 

[randomradio]

Growth prospects revised upwards for 2023
Just as the European Union was gradually recovering from the economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine erupted at the end of February 2022, slowing the continent's economic growth. The European economy suffered from rising commodity and energy prices and the disruption of world trade. Nevertheless, "despite exceptional negative shocks, the EU economy has avoided the contraction that the autumn forecasts predicted for the fourth quarter", according to the European Commission. The annual growth rate for 2022 is estimated at 3.5% for both the EU and the eurozone.

At the start of 2023, the EU economy was in better shape than forecast in the autumn. The growth outlook (provisional estimates) for this year is 0.8% for the EU and 0.9% for the eurozone. Although Europe remains exposed to the turbulence, it would narrowly avoid recession. The forecasts also revise inflation projections slightly downwards, for both 2023 and 2024.

That's good news for us, but that also applies to the Russians.

I guess it warrants their claims about oil prices increasing in the second half of the year.

 

[A Person]

That's the same argument Pakistan has made about both Kashmir and Bangladesh, and used genocide as a means of asserting their claims, both genocides supported by the US without any repercussions. The same was gonna happen in Donbas had the Ukrainians taken control, once again supported by the US, while conveniently ignoring Ukraine's language law and its persecution of minorities.

Of all the bullsh!t to ever flow from the Kremlin's cheeks, the one about a genocide in the Donbas and the persecution of Russian-speakers is the bullsh!test. Anyone who actually believes this is a silly person.

The people of the Donbas are being genocided right now by Russia, though, as Russia is sending them into countless "meat assaults" and then denying them any sort of medical treatment.

By comparison, the Russian-speakers in the free parts of Ukraine? They're faring much better. One of them is even the President!

 

[BMD]

That's the same argument Pakistan has made about both Kashmir and Bangladesh, and used genocide as a means of asserting their claims, both genocides supported by the US without any repercussions. The same was gonna happen in Donbas had the Ukrainians taken control, once again supported by the US, while conveniently ignoring Ukraine's language law and its persecution of minorities.

The Ukrainian separatists in the Donbass were a small rabble of terrorists, not a population of tens of millions, Russia intervened and made it a full scale war. Without Russian intervention, the separatists would have brushed aside and peace would have followed. Kashmiri or Khalistani separatists are a much closer comparison. Much less people in the Donbass would have died without Russian intervention.

It's not a damn genocide when a small minority takes up arms against the majority in a country and the majority fights back. JFC, if that's the definition, then any criminal in any country shot by law enforcement would be genocide.

 

[BMD]

That's good news for us, but that also applies to the Russians.

I guess it warrants their claims about oil prices increasing in the second half of the year.

There's no good news there for the Russians, it just means more weapons can be afforded for Ukraine to kill them with until they leave.

 

[randomradio]

Of all the bullsh!t to ever flow from the Kremlin's cheeks, the one about a genocide in the Donbas and the persecution of Russian-speakers is the bullsh!test. Anyone who actually believes this is a silly person.

All Russians are already being persecuted under the language law. Their identity is already being suppressed.

China started the same way in Tibet and Xinjiang.

The next step would be to pack minority regions with majority population, like what Pakistan did in PoK by moving Sunnis into Shia majority areas and what the Chinese call Sinofication or Hanisation.

Sinicization - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

So yeah, Ukraine now finds itself in common with Pakistan and China even without having occupied Donbas, where the majority of the Russians live.

The people of the Donbas are being genocided right now by Russia, though, as Russia is sending them into countless "meat assaults" and then denying them any sort of medical treatment.

Those are Russian prisoners from Storm Z, not the separatists.

By comparison, the Russian-speakers in the free parts of Ukraine? They're faring much better. One of them is even the President!

There's not gonna be much of Russian-speakers left in "free" Ukraine eventually. It's gonna be a nice little Nazi garden in a decade.

 

[BMD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1678851624763047936