The weaker force was 2014 Ukraine, not 2014 Russia. The people from Donbas had the Russian army fighting for them and deciding for them what they are supposed to prefer. And they were not on the retreat, but on the offensive.
LOL nope. That fall of Debaltseve you speak off? You remember when it happened? It happened after the Minsk II agreement was signed. A ceasefire agreement was signed on Feb 12. The so-called "separatists", who are not and have never been separatists but Russian soldiers with a change of badge and Wagner mercenaries, used heavy artillery to pummel the city, and when the Ukrainian troops were forced to retreat they ambushed them and slaughtered as many as they could. Definitely the good-faith posture of a side that signed a cease-fire, welcomes peace, and seeks an end to the conflict.
"Yes, we agree to a cease-fire and a political process, but first we're gonna slaughter you guys a little and take some territory, and after, pinky promise, we'll stop attacking you, lol. Trust me bro."
Russia has never been a good faith actor; everything Russia says is a lie, they will never honor their agreements and they cannot be trusted.
It's not spectacular like the Kharkiv offensive, but nobody serious could expect a Blitzkrieg when assistance to Ukraine has been held to a rigorous "too little, too late" standard and Russia has had the time to heavily fortify the frontline. So what Ukraine's doing is the best they can do with the hand they're dealt, and that's degrading Russian fighting capacity by destroying ammo and fuel depots, command posts, and Russia's most valuable equipment -- artillery, air defenses, etc. The aim is not to breach through enemy line and penetrate deep, because that'd be just suicidal. The aim is to exert constant pressure until the defense lines crumble, which they do slowly -- but still much faster than Ukrainian defense lines crumbled in Bakhmut...
As Russia is trying to hold the line (instead of retreating to the more heavily-fortified positions they have in the rear) and pursue its own offensive in the meantime (near Kupyansk notably, as well as in Avdeevka which they've been attacking fruitlessly since 2014), Russian losses are still very high, and sooner or later Russia will have to go through another round of "partial mobilization" because otherwise those heavily defensive lines in the south will just not be manned anymore.
Germany going through a slight contraction is not "even worse" than what Russia has inflicted itself.
I do not worry that much for the German economy. This is hurting them less than the Covid crisis. And on the whole, EU economy is growing -- not by much, but still growing -- and more than what was anticipated before.
Spring 2023 Economic Forecast: an improved outlook amid persistent challenges
The European economy continues to show resilience in a challenging global context. Lower energy prices, abating supply constraints and a strong labour market supported moderate growth in the first quarter of 2023, dispelling fears of a recession and lifting the growth outlook for 2023 and 2024.
Merkel has been harshly criticized for being directly responsible for Europe's stagnation and growing dependence on foreign powers -- Russia for energy, China for trade, and America for military protection. Every time there was an opportunity to consolidate the EU, increase solidarity, improve things for the whole continent, she said "nein" in the name of German selfishness. The status quo favored Germany, so who cares if it created crises like in Greece or helped cause Brexit?
So of course she's trying to come up with some "actually, I was doing something to help!" but who in the EU would ever believe her?
And the talks were a sham because they involved Russia. Russia is not a good faith actor, all they say is a lie, they never honor their word, and they're always plotting to betray you. Russia is not, and has never been, the victim here.
