Ukraine - Russia Conflict

Yeah, because of Russia. "The agreement says heavy weapons must be pulled back, but haha, we totally don't have any heavy weapon in Ukraine, wink wink nudge nudge, so we'll just keep on shelling the parts of Donbass we haven't captured yet daily while pretending it's not us."

The fundamental dishonesty of Russia is the reason why Ukraine preferred to keep building strength, and they were right. As we've seen, under the guise of "protecting" a supposedly oppressed population (who's never been more oppressed than now that they're under Russian control), what the Kremlin did was a full invasion of the entire country, trying to take the capital.

Ukraine had to do it first. Insted they further fortified positions.

As for mobilizing 700 000 people, during a general mobilization, that's normal and if anything rather below historical par. In the sole month of August 1914, France mobilized nearly four million people; while in September 1939 it reached five million mobilized.

France is an imperial power. Ukraine is not. And 700,000 were trained men, not your regular joe TDF.

What do you expect them to do with these troops besides repelling Russian invasion and putting an end to the war in Donbass? Invade Russia? Don't be silly.

That's it... Invade Donbas.

Europe bought time in order to build up UAF's military to the point it can take back Donbas. And the army was bigger than the standing Russian army, so it formed enough of a counterweight to act as deterrence from Russian aggression. The difference was Europe didn't know the Americans were playing their own game behind the scenes.

Again, the reason isn't that Russia didn't prepare; the reason is that Russia prepared in a Russian way -- with graft, corruption, theft, lies, and general gangsterism.

It doesn't matter how much corruption there was, they lack the technologies for a war. And they are still fighting and winning with all their "graft, corruption, theft, lies, and general gangsterism" anyway. Even with all those problems, they are still defeating Western tech. There's no way the Russians would have gone to war without a comm system. It's a fact.

That's the trick, though. To expand their military, they are sacrificing their economy.

No, they are not. Their economy was attacked and it still weathered the storm. And they are earning enough forex to pay for militarisation. It's literally free money that they dig out of the ground.

They can't improve themselves. Because the reason why Russia is rotten is that it's the entire power structure that is rotten, from the top to the bottom.
The people who are in charge in Russia are in charge because their higher-ups trust them. And this is the entire source of the problem, because trust in a mafia system is not based on honesty, integrity, and competence; it's based on personal loyalty. It's like a feudal system, where the baron serves the duke and the duke serves the king.

Prigozhin is a perfect example of this: he was a friend of Putin, and that's why his companies got to do business with the Kremlin despite being absolutely incompetent. The fact that Concord, Prigozhin's catering firm, actually sold rotten, spoiled meat to the Russian military, repeatedly, to the point of amassing no less than 560 lawsuits, yes, five hundred and sixty, without ever seeing its contracts cancelled as a result, speaks for itself. In the end, it's not the obvious, repeated, blatant scandals that killed the company -- it's Prigozhin's betrayal. Selling rotten food to Russian soldiers was perfectly acceptable and could have gone forever; but upsetting the balance of power by attempting to oust some of Putin's other protegees, that was unforgivable.

If Russia really wants to improve themselves, there's only one way forward for that: they have to imitate the Ukrainians and revolt against the corrupt system. As long as Putin and his cronies are in power -- the siloviki, the "thieves in law", the oligarchs, all of these rotten cliques -- things can only go from bad to worse.

Russian society is corrupt. So is the rest of the Third World. But what's that go to do with France and Germany faking talks?

Russia attacked Ukraine when they realised they wasted years talking to Europe. Why is America the only one benefiting from the war in Europe?
 
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How much dumber can you get? Can you read the date on the link first?
Wrong link, sorry.


Russia’s seaborne diesel and gasoil exports fell 21% in May from April levels, to 3.1 million tonnes as refinery maintenance and a surge in domestic demand cut into volumes available for exporting, new Refinitiv Eikon data showed on Friday.

Also read second link. Russia is having to export more oil to make less revenue. Basically Russia is allowing its resources to be stolen in order to continue this war where it also attrits itself. :ROFLMAO:


In 05/2022 it exported ~7.6m bbls and made ~€19m, in 04/2023 Russia exported ~8.3m bbls and made <€14m.

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Also the high you speak of is a post-invasion high only.

Russia recently exported more oil than at any other time following its invasion of Ukraine last year.
 

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Doesn't speak of infantry casualties, where the ratio of vehicles to infantry is greater on the Russian side. I guess 'cause there's nothing reliable around.

The issue with Oryx is the Russians are not publicising enough of their hits in depth areas, while the Ukrainians are publishing all of their hits. Most videos we see of the Russians is some Lancet drone strikes in the rear and the main ones are mostly from frontline combat. We rarely see videos of Russian CB fire.
Michel Goya estimates that Russian casualties were higher at the start of the war, but that they are tending to balance out now.
 
@randomradio

The amount in money is down irrelevant of volume. If the volume is up, that's doubly bad.


Budget income from oil and gas sales reached 570.7 billion roubles ($7 billion) last month, compared to 886 billion in May 2022 and 647.5 billion in April 2023.

This was lower than the 593 billion roubles expected by Reuters.

Proceeds from the profit-based oil tax fell to 5.4 billion roubles in May from April's 185.4 billion roubles due to the frequency payment pattern of the tax.

Subsidies from the budget to refining companies from the oil reverse excise tax rose to 91 billion roubles from 79.3 billion roubles in April, while payments to refineries under the "damping mechanism" - introduced to stop companies from capitalizing on high fuel export prices and defend the domestic market - edged down to 103.5 billion roubles from 107.2 billion roubles in April.

Proceedings from mineral extraction taxes declined in May by a quarter from the same period in 2022 to 703.6 billion roubles, while revenues from exports duties fell by 74% to 66.1 billion roubles.


($1 = 81.1475 roubles)
Yeah, bad news there too, the rouble has plummeted since then as well.
 
Ukraine had to do it first. Insted they further fortified positions.
It was a quid pro quo. Everytime Ukrainian troops moved away, unbadged Russian soldiers took advantage to seize more territory. So since Russia didn't play ball, why should have Ukraine sabotaged itself to please their enemy?


Your position is that Ukraine should have capitulated immediately and entirely and given Putin everything they wanted including the return of massive corruption against which the population rose up several times.

It's like self-determination means nothing to you. With that mentality you should still be subject of the British Raj.
France is an imperial power. Ukraine is not. And 700,000 were trained men, not your regular joe TDF.
Nope, the majority of the Ukrainian troops are precisely "regular joe TDF". There's a reason why European countries set up a program to train Ukrainian troops after the full-scale war started.

Thing is a number of Ukrainian troops were trained by the eight years of comparatively low-intensity war in the Donbas where Russia was just casually shelling people and shooting down airliners while pretending not to be doing it. So... it's entirely Russia's fault if Ukraine had motivated veteran troops to resist Russian invasion.
That's it... Invade Donbas.
Ukraine cannot invade Donbas, for the simple reason Donbas is Ukraine.

What they can do, however, is expel a horde of rapists, murderers, thieves, and other criminals that have been put in a position of control over this territory by an aggressive, hostile foreign power.
Even with all those problems, they are still defeating Western tech.
Only because they have sheer numbers (including gargantuan reserves of Soviet materiel, which they are currently emptying with great alacrity) and Western aide has so far been dispensed under the operating principle of "too little, too late, we don't wanna escalate too fast".

Things would have been very different, and a lot less Ukrainian blood would have been spilled, if they had received the tanks (still waiting for the Abrams, by the way), cluster munitions, long-range missiles, and fighter jets (also still waiting for them) last year.

So yes, Western tank treads are not immune to mines. It's going to be hard to make mine-proof, shell-proof vehicles without a convenient source of Unobtainium. On the plus side, when western tech is defeated by Russia, the people inside generally survive and can evacuate relatively safely. Whereas when Soviet/Russian-design tanks are defeated, the crew gets vaporized as the turret tries to reach orbit.

Ukraine has so far reclaimed 300 km² of its territory since June. If this is a defeat, then what to say about Russia? Again, the only victory they've managed after the end of the "blitzkrieg" phase where they seize much of the south, once the Ukrainian forces managed to reorganize and regroup and hold the line, has been Bakhmut. And currently, Ukraine is getting in a position to reclaim this martyred town, and it looks like it won't take them the ten months it took for Russia.

Despite Russia's gigantic firepower advantage in artillery, armor, and air superiority.
No, they are not. Their economy was attacked and it still weathered the storm. And they are earning enough forex to pay for militarisation. It's literally free money that they dig out of the ground.
The Russian economy is in shambles, but they're hiding it. Their export revenues have considerably decreased since before the full-scale war, and when they triumphantly claim their export (by volume) has increased, it just tries to mask that their export (by revenue) has decreased. Meaning they sell more but for less.
Russian society is corrupt. So is the rest of the Third World. But what's that go to do with France and Germany faking talks?
I still hold that this is a baseless reading of history. The whole "those meanies tricked me into not attacking Ukraine in the hope that I wouldn't attack Ukraine, so I had to attack Ukraine before I couldn't attack Ukraine anymore" whining is just beyond belief in its stupidity.

Russia is not the Third World, you know? They were the Second World. They counted as a developed, industrial country. They were, and still are, a colonial power with a vast empire. At the end of the Cold War, they should have joined the First World; but instead they fell into Third World status.

Maybe there's some questions to ask about why. And I know that according to Russia, the blame lay at the feet of everyone else in the world (but mostly The Evil West) while Russia itself is just an innocent little naïve and defenseless victim that never wronged anyone; but maybe, just maybe, this is bull dung?
 
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Wrong link, sorry.




Also read second link. Russia is having to export more oil to make less revenue. Basically Russia is allowing its resources to be stolen in order to continue this war where it also attrits itself. :ROFLMAO:


In 05/2022 it exported ~7.6m bbls and made ~€19m, in 04/2023 Russia exported ~8.3m bbls and made <€14m.

View attachment 28885


Also the high you speak of is a post-invasion high only.

And in June it picked up to 1.27m bpd again.

And revenues are low because the West and China are not doing well, so consumption is low. The Russians have dealt with far lower revenues than that in the past.
 
Michel Goya estimates that Russian casualties were higher at the start of the war, but that they are tending to balance out now.

Start of the war, yes, during their Kiev excursion.

It reversed once the battle of attrition started. Particularly after Popasna fell.

People typically talk about the UAF, but they forget about adding TDF casualties to the mix. Once UAF retreats from the field, it's the TDF that take the brunt of the artillery attacks. Cannon fodder is not being counted properly as casualties.
 
@randomradio

The amount in money is down irrelevant of volume. If the volume is up, that's doubly bad.








Yeah, bad news there too, the rouble has plummeted since then as well.

Why not compare it with figures from 2021 and 2020 instead of 2022?
 
It was a quid pro quo. Everytime Ukrainian troops moved away, unbadged Russian soldiers took advantage to seize more territory. So since Russia didn't play ball, why should have Ukraine sabotaged itself to please their enemy?

As the weaker force, it's obvious it's the people from Donbas who would prefer the ceasefire and ending hostilities. They were largely on the retreat after all.

And they did. After the fall of Debaltseve to Donbas, DPR/LPR removed their heavy weapons first. Then Ukraine decided there will be no self-rule for Donbas. The Ukrainians then wrongfully blamed Donbas for violating ceasefire.

Your position is that Ukraine should have capitulated immediately and entirely and given Putin everything they wanted including the return of massive corruption against which the population rose up several times.

It's like self-determination means nothing to you. With that mentality you should still be subject of the British Raj.

Minsk meant autonomy for Donbas, but it still stays in Ukraine. So it is self-determination.

Ukraine deliberately postponed elections in Donbas from Oct 2015. And after 3 years, when Donbas finally held elections, Ukraine called it illegal.

In 2021, as per the West, Minsk was dead. As per the Russians, they still wanted Minsk. Even in October, Lavrov was talking about Minsk.

And the West started talking about Minsk again only after the Russians started their troop buildup in October, it was too late by then. There's even a meme about this. There was even egg face-planted on Merkel's and Macron's faces after they lied about their so-called planned meeting with Lavrov.

Then our man Zelensky showed up and started talking about joining NATO, taking back Donbas and Crimea etc. 'Cause, you know, he now had an army capable of doing that. Fate was sealed then. The Russians immediately sent troops to the border, a temporary buildup began and they later retreated, and restarted again in Oct. This time it was final. And then the SMO started, but not before Europe started crying for Minsk.

Nope, the majority of the Ukrainian troops are precisely "regular joe TDF". There's a reason why European countries set up a program to train Ukrainian troops after the full-scale war started.

Incorrect. The West trained UAF for an insurgency as well as offensive against Donbas. The post invasion training was for an offensive against the Russian army using Western equipment and doctrine. Totally different.

In any case, it's impossible for Ukraine to raise, train and equip a 700,000 force on its own. Its defence budget is currently bigger than its normal yearly govt expenses.

Ukraine cannot invade Donbas, for the simple reason Donbas is Ukraine.

As per the Minsk agreement, yes. Donbas would belong to Ukraine, just more autonomy. But it would be an invasion if they entered a city using tanks instead of a tour bus or a car.

Only because they have sheer numbers (including gargantuan reserves of Soviet materiel, which they are currently emptying with great alacrity) and Western aide has so far been dispensed under the operating principle of "too little, too late, we don't wanna escalate too fast".

Things would have been very different, and a lot less Ukrainian blood would have been spilled, if they had received the tanks (still waiting for the Abrams, by the way), cluster munitions, long-range missiles, and fighter jets (also still waiting for them) last year.

So yes, Western tank treads are not immune to mines. It's going to be hard to make mine-proof, shell-proof vehicles without a convenient source of Unobtainium. On the plus side, when western tech is defeated by Russia, the people inside generally survive and can evacuate relatively safely. Whereas when Soviet/Russian-design tanks are defeated, the crew gets vaporized as the turret tries to reach orbit.

Ukraine has so far reclaimed 300 km² of its territory since June. If this is a defeat, then what to say about Russia? Again, the only victory they've managed after the end of the "blitzkrieg" phase where they seize much of the south, once the Ukrainian forces managed to reorganize and regroup and hold the line, has been Bakhmut. And currently, Ukraine is getting in a position to reclaim this martyred town, and it looks like it won't take them the ten months it took for Russia.

Despite Russia's gigantic firepower advantage in artillery, armor, and air superiority.

There's nothing much happening with the counteroffensive. Even Goya spoke about it being pointless without Melitopol and Berdyansk.

The Russian economy is in shambles, but they're hiding it. Their export revenues have considerably decreased since before the full-scale war, and when they triumphantly claim their export (by volume) has increased, it just tries to mask that their export (by revenue) has decreased. Meaning they sell more but for less.

When it comes to oil and gas, only volumes matter. Prices are subject to cyclical changes in the global economy. You may be happy about Russia losing revenue, but that's also 'cause Germany is in a recession and China's not growing. Russia not earning more means Europe is doing even worse.

The European economy contracted slightly at the end of last year and beginning of 2023, revised figures showed Thursday, underlining the impact of the loss of Russian natural gas and high inflation on consumer spending.

I still hold that this is a baseless reading of history. The whole "those meanies tricked me into not attacking Ukraine in the hope that I wouldn't attack Ukraine, so I had to attack Ukraine before I couldn't attack Ukraine anymore" whining is just beyond belief in its stupidity.

What's interesting is your only argument is Merkel was lying. 'Cause if she was telling the truth, then all your arguments fail. 'Cause the talks were a sham.

Russia is not the Third World, you know? They were the Second World. They counted as a developed, industrial country. They were, and still are, a colonial power with a vast empire. At the end of the Cold War, they should have joined the First World; but instead they fell into Third World status.

Maybe there's some questions to ask about why. And I know that according to Russia, the blame lay at the feet of everyone else in the world (but mostly The Evil West) while Russia itself is just an innocent little naïve and defenseless victim that never wronged anyone; but maybe, just maybe, this is bull dung?

First, Second and Third World are political systems. First World = NATO + allies. Second World = Warsaw Pact + China. Third World = NAM.

Nehru or someone decided to apply Third World to economy as well, since typically TW countries were also very poor.

But the Russians were as rich as the SU citizens in terms of per capita, they just lost a decade after the SU's collapse instead. That's how they fell behind. Regardless, even by Western definitions, Russia is considered a borderline advanced economy. It has Very High HDI above 0.8 and a per capita income above $25,000. But it is considered emerging because the currency is weak, ie, not above the $12500k threshold in nominal terms. Meaning, it needs to become as big as Japan to be considered developed.

Similarly, India will also achieve well above 0.8 HDI and $25k per capita or $12.5k nominal by 2040, but still won't be considered developed, even with a $19-20T GDP.
 
First, Second and Third World are political systems. First World = NATO + allies. Second World = Warsaw Pact + China. Third World = NAM.
The Second World is the Warsaw Pact, and China is not the Second World. Moreover, Russia's decline is indisputable, and I may not understand the economy very well. However, the vast majority of Russia's exports are oil and other natural resources, just like those Islamic feudal countries in the Middle East, and even not as healthy as Iran's economy
 
Why not compare it with figures from 2021 and 2020 instead of 2022?
Okay, Apr 2021 7.6bn bbls for ~€14bn vs Apr 2023 8.3bn bbls for ~€14bn. But oil prices were lower in 2021 as were other costs, so revenue should have been lower. Net revenue now is even less with the higher associated costs.


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And in June it picked up to 1.27m bpd again.

And revenues are low because the West and China are not doing well, so consumption is low. The Russians have dealt with far lower revenues than that in the past.
Evidence? Please also provide evidence of actual revenue in June. If your making less revenue than before, then exporting more product just makes it even worse not better.
 
Evidence? Please also provide evidence of actual revenue in June. If your making less revenue than before, then exporting more product just makes it even worse not better.
Not OP, but anyway, from the Russian Ministry of Finance:

Нефтегазовые доходы составили 3 382 млрд рублей и снизились на 47% г/г, что связано с высокой базой сравнения прошлого года, снижением котировок цен на нефть марки Юралс, снижением цен и сокращением объемов экспорта природного газа. Месячная динамика нефтегазовых доходов постепенно выходит на траекторию, соответствующую их базовому уровню (8 трлн рублей в год).
Translation: Oil and gas revenues amounted to 3,382 billion rubles and decreased by 47% YoY due to a high base year-on-year comparison, lower Urals oil quotes, lower prices, and lower natural gas exports. Monthly dynamics of oil and gas revenues are gradually reaching a trajectory that corresponds to their baseline level (8 trillion rubles per year).

The cumulative oil and gas revenue amounted to 1,635 billion roubles for Jan-March, 2,282 billion roubles for Jan-April, 2,853 billion roubles for Jan-May, and 3,382 billion roubles for Jan-June 2023.

So the oil and gas revenue was 647 billion roubles in April, 571 billion roubles in May, and 529 billion roubles in June.

So, Russia's oil and gas revenues have been decreasing m-o-m from April to May to June.

And just as a side note excl. 2022, Russia's oil and gas revenues for the Jan-June period were higher in 2021 (3776 billion roubles), 2019 (4121.9 billion roubles), and 2018 (4691.7 billion roubles).
 
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