Ukraine - Russia Conflict

Russia won't attack you until they have plenty of Felons and Armata.

As for destroying the vehicles...well! Except NGAD no plane will be able to go 1 on 1 with evolved Su-57. It's designed to destroy every single type currently in service in both BVR & WVR. Similarly T-14 is a level beyond what you have currently got.
The Su-57 is a joke. It's not stealthy at all, the J-20 makes a far better fist of it.

By the time any of those things are available in quantity, if ever, NATO will have well over a thousand stealth jets and maybe some NGAD and B-21s too. Plus GMLRS-ER, PrSM, LRHW, HACM, SiAW, AARGM-ER etc.
@BMD


This is how they booby trap and ambush the UAF.
As you may have noticed from today's videos I posted, the balance of artillery is forever changing in Ukraine's favour and soon Russians will have DPICMs 155mm and MLRS to look forward too.
 
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Another dumb video that only sees the little things. He doesn't speak about marketshare at all, so any information provided only serves to mislead people. Russia's marketshare has increased at the expense of OPEC. And the discounts have shrunk as more and more buyers are stepping forward.

India stepped up as a major buyer and managed to secure discounts of up to $15-20 a barrel. As per the Mint report, these discounts have now fallen below $10 and have even touched $5.

As per the analysis, cheaper Russian oil lowered the average landed price of imported crude for India — the world’s third-largest consumer of crude oil — by just about $2 per barrel during the nine-month period. The average landed price of imported crude for April-December was $99.2 per barrel. If Russian barrels are excluded from the math, the average price rises marginally to $101.2 per bbl.

The oil price is roughly enough to make up for transporation costs. There were massive savings last year, but not this year. But still, $2 is a lot. About $4M in savings per day for Russian oil.
 
The Su-57 is a joke. It's not stealthy at all, the J-20 makes a far better fist of it.

You should check out the finishing on the production models in the PAK FA thread.

As you may have noticed from today's videos I posted, the balance of artillery is forever changing in Ukraine's favour and soon Russians will have DPICMs 155mm and MLRS to look forward too.

The Russians will still have artillery superiority.
 
Another dumb video that only sees the little things. He doesn't speak about marketshare at all, so any information provided only serves to mislead people. Russia's marketshare has increased at the expense of OPEC. And the discounts have shrunk as more and more buyers are stepping forward.

India stepped up as a major buyer and managed to secure discounts of up to $15-20 a barrel. As per the Mint report, these discounts have now fallen below $10 and have even touched $5.

As per the analysis, cheaper Russian oil lowered the average landed price of imported crude for India — the world’s third-largest consumer of crude oil — by just about $2 per barrel during the nine-month period. The average landed price of imported crude for April-December was $99.2 per barrel. If Russian barrels are excluded from the math, the average price rises marginally to $101.2 per bbl.

The oil price is roughly enough to make up for transporation costs. There were massive savings last year, but not this year. But still, $2 is a lot. About $4M in savings per day for Russian oil.
The discounts shrank only because the price of oil fell. They have lost massive market share in refined exports. The price now is $73/bbl and was lower until OPEC cut production. And yeah, the transportation costs now eat into their margins too. The little thing it focuses on is the net result.
 
They don't need to think strategically, that's the job of the general. But they need to think tactically, 'cause that's what delivers real world results.

Soldiers don't need to know why they need to protect a bridge, but they need to know how to do it.

Otoh, many Russian generals had to leave the safety of their HQs to help the lower rung through tactical difficulties and got killed in the process. Their lower rung training is practically non-existent and small unit tactics practically doesn't exist, and they are forced to learn on the job, while getting shot at.
Spot on analysis(y). Just hope that our army remains as professional even after Agnipath scheme. What's your take on this matter?
 
The Su-57 is a joke. It's not stealthy at all, the J-20 makes a far better fist of it.
Wrong. Su-57 is very stealthy from front. Yes, current version is not as stealthy as Raptor or Lightning 2 from all aspect. But I talked about 'evolved' Su-57. It's currently a work/weapon in progress. Future models will have much better all-round stealth. Except NGAD, nothing can/will touch Su-57M.

And Russians have got PAK-DP to take on NGAD.
By the time any of those things are available in quantity, if ever, NATO will have well over a thousand stealth jets and maybe some NGAD and B-21s too. Plus GMLRS-ER, PrSM, LRHW, HACM, SiAW, AARGM-ER etc.
Russian armada has begun. Now they will arm themselves to the teeth. It's going to turn very bad for Europe. Very soon they will hundreds of Su-57. PAK-DA is coming next year. It will be inducted by the same time B-21 is in USAF.

You folks have awakened a sleeping lion and now get ready for its counter-attack.
As you may have noticed from today's videos I posted, the balance of artillery is forever changing in Ukraine's favour and soon Russians will have DPICMs 155mm and MLRS to look forward too.
Dumb. Ukraine is only winning the war in twitter or in cyber domain. Their counter-offensive has already failed. Russian artillery will always remain ahead of Ukraine no matter what NATO supplies to them.
 
Spot on analysis(y). Just hope that our army remains as professional even after Agnipath scheme. What's your take on this matter?

Some advantages, and some disadvantages. That familial bond they have will weaken. But due to increased intake, about 150k every year compared to just 60k before, the IA will have more young reserves to fall back on during wartime. 25% permanent of 150k gives us 37.5k troops, which is enough to man important positions. And the IA can filter out the rest. The rest are replaceable roles.
 
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Wrong. Su-57 is very stealthy from front. Yes, current version is not as stealthy as Raptor or Lightning 2 from all aspect. But I talked about 'evolved' Su-57. It's currently a work/weapon in progress. Future models will have much better all-round stealth. Except NGAD, nothing can/will touch Su-57M.
Just no. The IRST lump on its own has a larger RCS than either an F-22 or F-35.
And Russians have got PAK-DP to take on NGAD.
PAK-DP is about as real as Firefox at this point. In fact, even Firefox has a mock up wherea sthe PAK-DP doesn't.
Russian armada has begun. Now they will arm themselves to the teeth. It's going to turn very bad for Europe. Very soon they will hundreds of Su-57. PAK-DA is coming next year. It will be inducted by the same time B-21 is in USAF.
Garbage is PAK-DA coming next year. :ROFLMAO: Russia is currently neck and neck with Ukraine in conventional war. If at any stage NATO chooses to intervene, Russia will lose very quickly.
You folks have awakened a sleeping lion and now get ready for its counter-attack.
It's actually the other way round. Russia has reignited the Cold War and spanked up NATO military spending by >50% across Europe.
Dumb. Ukraine is only winning the war in twitter or in cyber domain. Their counter-offensive has already failed. Russian artillery will always remain ahead of Ukraine no matter what NATO supplies to them.
Russian artillery is being wiped out by the bucket load. The counter-offensive has liberated 15 settlements and liberated many Russian soldiers from Putin. Next time they will have better anti-mining in place.
No, they are actually selling more refined products than before.
Nope. Nobody wants their refined products, only the crude.

 
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Nope. Nobody wants their refined products, only the crude.



They have found buyers. And they are buying more than Russia used to export before the sanctions.

Give it a year.

It will get worse next year.
 
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Funny this, Kremlin actually asked Russian oil companies to reduce the exports of refined fuel, 'cause they were disrupting supplies to the domestic market.


And of course:
Russia exported 1.9 million gasoline between January and March this year, up from 1.3 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2022, data from Refinitiv showed.

They exporting more than last year.
 
Yeah, this is all Western propaganda. If Putin wanted war, then why invade with such a small, unprepared army, without enough logistics and air support? It smells more like a desperate move rather than a 4D chess move.
Why? Because he thought it'd be sufficient.

Why did he think it was sufficient? Because he lives in an informational bubble that always tells him what he wants to hear. He thought his army was ready and prepared, that's what they told him. He thought the logistics and air support would be ready, that's what they told him. He thought Ukrainians would not resist, that's what they told him.

It's neither desperation nor 4D chess moves, it's power-induced schizophrenia.

You forget that France was part of the negotations too. So was France taking its orders from Germany for the sake of German gas?
France had its own reasons. Our political and military elite tend to be quite russophile (I've shared an article about that already), especially as they saw Russia as a way to counterbalance America so as to avoid forcing Europe to be too strongly aligned with America. Well, Russia blew all this geopolitical theorizing up by starting a war nobody wanted (except the Putin regime).

It's simple, Russia invaded 'cause France and Germany were disingenuous and lied to the Russians about talks.
Poor plucky little Russia, truly a victim. No, Russia was disingenuous and lied, which is why the talks went nowhere.

Once the Russians realised there were no talks, and that the UAF had climbed up to the point that they could invade Donbas on their own, they decided to act.
It's not invasion, but liberation. Donbas is Ukraine.
Do you think the UAF of Feb 2022 could not defeat Donbas on their own?
Possibly. But there was no mobilization and no massive Western weapon supply or financial support.
The current war is taking so long because of a series of miscalculations by the Russian side. They seriously miscalculated the UAF's strength, even when they were right under their noses. So they shouldn't have stopped at Crimea in 2014. Had they known the talks were a sham, they would have definitely taken all of Donbas right away too.

The ground situation most definitely proves that it wasn't a war Russia wanted, but was needed.
How was the war needed? Why did Russia need to instigate a civil war and invade neighboring territory? You claim that they "had to", that it was "needed", that they had "no choice" but let's stop partaking in Krokodil for a bit, and ask: why?

It's a war Russia wanted, because they were the only one who wanted it. And they wanted it because they went insane.
4. An energy crisis is coming. It didn't last year 'cause Russia was still supplying. This year, there's expected to be a deficit.
Doubtful. If anything, it'll be an energy crisis for Pakistan again. Europe's wealthy enough to win energy bids.
The Collective West is more divided than you think. The US + Oceania + Japan + South Korea will be busy getting outspent by the Chinese. So Europe is much more on its own against Russia than you think. So that's dropped down to 500m vs 140m.

Years ago I said that the Russians are still not ready to fight NATO for another 10+ years and that Euope should start militarising in order to keep that edge. Well, good luck doing that now. If you don't have enough weapons, then more number of people only means you will have more casualties.
Russia's still severely outmatched in air power, technology, and competence.

This war shall allow serious introspection to the Russians. All their military deficiencies are now going to get addressed. Now Europe shall wait for hordes of evolved Su-57s and T-14s on their doorway. Good luck to them.
Yeah, the factories that were emptied of workers because they were sent to the frontlines will produce a lot of cutting edge tech from the design bureaus that were emptied of engineers because they left the country to avoid being sent to the frontlines and it most definitely will not be buried under massive level of graft, embezzlement, corruption, etc.

The USSR crumbled once, instead of serious introspection they continued their rotten practices completely unchanged. The decayed zombie of the USSR will crumble again as a result.

The Su-57 and T-14 will forever remain vaporware.
Russia won't attack you until they have plenty of Felons and Armata.
They won't have plenty of those. There's a reason they're still focusing on T-72 and T-90, and getting T-55 out of requirements, instead of ramping up the T-14. Likewise for the Su-57. Overhyped crap that will never live to the lofty expectations that Russian propaganda and gullible tankie fanboys still have.

The focus on Wunderwäffen to win a war alone against the entire world is reminiscent of Nazi Germany. Lots of similarities between the third Russian Reich (first was the Tsardom, second the USSR) and the third German Reich.

In India, the lower rung are trained so well and have such high motivation and morale that people say the fvck-ups of the generals will be fixed by soldiers on the ground. The Russians have to emulate that.
In Russia, the lower rung are not trained at all and their only motivation is that they'll be shot by barrier troops if they don't stand and fight. Their morale is in a constant state of nihilism. Keep dreaming about Russian forces suddenly becoming a functional, coherent, fighting force.

I don't know when you will finally realize that Russia is an incredibly corrupt, rotten, dysfunctional place. It's not a real country, it's a mafia state. Everyone lies, everyone cheats, and those who can't lie and cheat well enough end up dead. The militarization of society caused by the continuous failure of the "special military operation" will only hasten its implosion.
 
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