In Kharkiv, they crumbled pretty much immediately because of how short-staffed and unprepared they were in the area. They really expected Ukraine would only attack in Kherson.
In Kherson, they fought tooth and nail, until their position became untenable; because Ukraine had successfully crippled their logistic flow with repeated attacks on Antonovski bridge and kept a mounting pressure. They held as long as they could. The decision to retreat had to come directly from Surovikin, who had by then recently been put in charge of the "special military operation", and it was very controversial despite all the prestige he had in Russia at the time.
And before that retreat order happened, we had seen the exact same thing as we're seeing now: "Ukraine's offensive is failing", "it's a hopeless meatgrinder", "Ukrainian casualties are several hundred thousand per day", etc. All the same nonsense because people expect real war to happen like it does in a video game where you can complete the entire campaign in a single day.
For historical comparison, in WW2, it took over a month to liberate Caen (Normandy landings on June 6, Caen liberated on July 9) and two months to liberate Avranches (August 1). Nearly three months for the liberation of Paris (August 25). And eleven months for German capitulation (May 8). And that was with immeasurably more means that what has been given to the Ukrainians (such as countless aircraft), plus the Germans also had to manage the Eastern and Southern fronts. So the guys who say "it's failed because it's been a month and they haven't planted their flag on Vladivostok yet" are just being stupid and/or disingenuous. I'm leaning on disingenuous because they never hold Russia to the same standard; after all Kyiv was supposed to have been taken 495 days ago.
In the meantime, we see new videos of exploded Russian materiel every day; while Russia is still recycling the same photos of disabled Leopard tanks again and again and again.
That's the issue. The Allies had significant men and material superiority and it still took them many months. But the West has given UAF peanuts and expect them to repeat the Allies' successes in France when the defenders are more numerous and technologically more advanced.
The Russians are releasing a lot of their own stuff too.
Once again, real war is not like a video game. 7500 tanks require logistic support for 7500 tanks. Russian logistics suck and would be very easily crippled by Western airpower. The Russian A2/AD network has been revealed to be not as good as it was hyped up to be, and so the West could easily target with long range missiles the various pipelines that allow Russian gas and oil to flow from East to West, immobilizing Russian troops. Once deprived of fuel, the tanks and mobile air defense units are stuck and paralyzed -- radars and weapon systems actually need energy to work, surprisingly enough -- so they can be destroyed at leisure.
And there's no way Russia could field 7500 T-90M. If they could do that, they wouldn't be sending their T-54 and T-55 to Ukraine right now. They're more likely to send in the T-34 next than to pull thousands of T-90 out of a hat.
The West caught the Russians with their pants down. They were yet to begin their modernisation, as stated before. All this time they were just inducting or upgrading Cold War era tech. All the new stuff is in production. The T-55s are for fire support, not for tank battles. How many videos of T-55s have you see destroyed at the front? Almost all of them are behind the lines, meant to protect the rear from saboteurs and partisans with small arms. The US will bring out their old Pattons as well, in a similar situation. In fact, some still use Patton in frontline combat service, like Turkey.
West has a considerable advantage in precision munition, optics including night-vision, and intel including satellite and aerial imagery. Those are huge force multipliers. All Russia can do by gathering scary numbers of troops is increasing their numbers of casualties.
And Russia is not purely an exporter. They still rely on Western electronics that they need to import. Except that because of sanctions, they have to go through intermediary countries like Kazakhstan or Georgia to get them, and each added intermediary increases the price further.
Also don't forget that they had to replace their export of refined fuels (very high profit margin since it is a manufactured product) to export of crude oil (very low profit margin as it's a primary resource), since India and China prefer to do their refining themselves so the added value is added at home and benefits their own industry. Europe was a uniquely profitable customer due to Western belief that a post-industrial status is what's best for the economy (thankfully this delusion is over after the Covid shock and the invasion of Ukraine).
Operating on deficit is only possible when you can borrow, meaning that there are lenders who are confident that you will pay them back anyway. If you don't find lenders -- you're in trouble. Who can lend money to Russia? The BRICS? The Arab states? Iran? North Korea? Don't make me laugh.
Western doctrine is precisely to take local initiatives depending on the tactical situation. The whole "improvise, adapt, overcome" thing.
Whereas Russian doctrine is to execute the orders that come from the top, even when they're stupid and doomed to fail. Your order is to drive a tank forward, but your supply line is cut? You drive the tank forward until you run out of gas, and then you stay stranded like an idiot, because that's the order you had; and it's Russia so either you execute order, or you get executed.
Attached: 1 image 1/ Sales of Wagner merchandise appear to have collapsed in Russia. In March 2023, many online retailers were selling all kinds of Wagner merchandise, including keyrings, sweatshirts, patches, flags, mugs, souvenir sledgehammers and carved backgammon sets. They're all gone now. ⬇️
Attached: 1 image 1/ Military recruitment in Russia's prisons is reported to have slumped following the failure of the Wagner Group's mutiny. Prisoners rioted in support of Yevgeny Prigozhin during the mutiny, but are now 'apathetic' and regard him as a traitor. ⬇️
You can't teach a rookie several tactics in just a few months. It takes 1-1.5 years to make a soldier on just 1 doctrine. And what the UAF received was a crash course. They are still not fully trained in 1 doctrine, never mind "several".
Debatable. You only get so long to use a rifle before you can't.
Some people don't. Many opinions have changed though, some now like the Russians far less, all they've liberated them from, is their jobs, homes and peace. They have nothing to offer except death.
Attached: 1 image 1/ Sales of Wagner merchandise appear to have collapsed in Russia. In March 2023, many online retailers were selling all kinds of Wagner merchandise, including keyrings, sweatshirts, patches, flags, mugs, souvenir sledgehammers and carved backgammon sets. They're all gone now. ⬇️
Attached: 1 image 1/ Military recruitment in Russia's prisons is reported to have slumped following the failure of the Wagner Group's mutiny. Prisoners rioted in support of Yevgeny Prigozhin during the mutiny, but are now 'apathetic' and regard him as a traitor. ⬇️
So majority of the countries in the world function with a deficit. But Russia goes into deficit once and it;s now a broke state? And this is after they are earning more money than ever in their history.
So majority of the countries in the world function with a deficit. But Russia goes into deficit once and it;s now a broke state? And this is after they are earning more money than ever in their history.
Russia's economy contracted by 2.2% in the first quarter of 2023 in annual terms, the economy ministry estimated on Wednesday, down from growth of 3% in the same period last year.
Nope, the Russians are not technologically more advanced than the Ukrainians. Only domain where that is true is in aircraft. For all ground materiel, it's Ukrainians who have the technological edge. This is what allows them to have an effective counter-battery despite Russia having a massive firepower advantage. Ukrainian artillery is longer ranged and more precise, so they need one shell where the Russians need a hundred.
They're massively behind the West in these domains. There's a reason why, before 2014, Russia bought French-made optics. When they had to replace them with their domestically-produced ones, it was a serious downgrade in quality.
And it's not like the West is standing still waiting for Russia to catch up. We've seen a technological arms race between NATO and the USSR before, it resulted in the USSR going bankrupt and exploding into plenty of independent countries that hurried to join NATO so that they wouldn't be under Russia's boots anymore.
Of course. Ukrainian combat doctrine isn't, and cannot be, Western combat doctrine because Western combat doctrine is based on establishing air supremacy as the first step, and this is shamefully denied to Ukraine.
But what remains is the organizational doctrine. Russian is heavily centralized, with the trooper on the ground awaiting the order from the top before doing anything. Can't wipe their own butt without Gerasimov telling them how much toilet paper to use.
Whereas western organization doctrine is to rely heavily on NCO and low-ranked officers taking initiatives to react to how the situation unfolds. This very decentralized approach is what allows a variety of tactics to be tried, and what allows to constantly change the tactics. It is the complete opposite of the rigid "do what you're told, and nothing else" system used by Russian forces. So when you say that the Ukrainians can't change their tactics, that's just wrong. It's a Russian problem, not a Ukrainian one.
The military has to go through intermediaries to evade sanctions too. All of these intermediaries are deeply corrupt. After all, overbilling the military has been the Russian national sport for decades. That's why Russian troops still use Mosin-Nagant rifles on the front lines.
Which is how you end up with hyperinflation. Sure, Russia isn't going to crumble overnight from this. It's not a near-term death knell. It's still a long-term problem, though.
So majority of the countries in the world function with a deficit. But Russia goes into deficit once and it;s now a broke state? And this is after they are earning more money than ever in their history.
The majority of the world hasn't imploded three decades ago because it tried to be bigger than the West while getting stuck in a pointless, hopeless war of expansion. But it happened to Russia, and it'll happen again to Russia, because Putin and his cronies are all imbeciles who have been in charge for far too long and have lost all contact with reality as a consequence.
Attached: 1 image 1/ A retired Russian tank battalion commander has given a frank interview about the rampant corruption that he says has led to the "complete collapse of the Russian army" in the last 16 years. His comments highlight how the army has rotted from within during the Putin era. ⬇️
7/ The reference to "fake commanders" is interesting, as it ties into something I've covered previously – the Russian military's culture of institutional lying, in which commanders at all levels routinely lie about and fake their activities. This is likely to have had extremely negative...
2/ The Insider reports on the calamitous state of Russian front-line medical care in the occupied regions of Ukraine. Getting to a medical facility is hard enough – many have complained that the wounded are not being evacuated and are often left to die. Wounded soldiers are supposed to be...
Attached: 1 video 1/ Mobilised Russians say they have been thrown into a "pit" because they refused to go and fight on the front line. They say that commanders are "throwing [men] in like dogs" with only assault rifles to fight off Ukrainian tanks. ⬇️
1/ Mobilised Russians facing the Ukrainian counter-offensive say they were "abandoned like kittens" by their commanders, faced Ukrainian tanks and artillery with minimal ammunition and no effective counter-fire, took heavy casualties, and had no medical evacuations on hand. ⬇️
Attached: 1 video 1/ Another open-air dungeon used by the Russian army to imprison its own soldiers has been exposed in the occupied Donetsk region. According to a commander, "every unit has one." Although they're illegal, he says "nobody gives a shit, statutes and laws don't apply here." ⬇️
mastodon.social
What a surprise, lots of mobiks don't actually want to fight, so they get thrown into a hole and tortured until they change their mind. This is how you create loyalty and camaraderie, right?
7/ 🔺 Young people aged 18-29 (53%) are the only demographic with a majority who say the war should not have been fought. 🔺 There is a strong correlation between income, age and support for the war: the wealthier or older a respondent was, the more likely they were to be pro-war, and to believe...
mastodon.social
Funny, the people in the age group that's actually concerned by mobilization are in majority against the war. The Russian who are in favor of the war are those who are old enough or rich enough not to feel at risk of being sent to the frontline. Odd, that.
Attached: 1 image 1/ Russian law forbids conscripts being sent to fight abroad. However, the Russian army seems to have found a loophole: it's reportedly sending hundreds of conscripts to fight in Ukraine as part of punishment battalions, in a revival of a Stalin-era practice. ⬇️
Attached: 1 image 1/ Colleges in the Russian republic of Ingushetia are issuing diplomas only if the students accept a mobilisation order at the same time. If they refuse, they face being imprisoned for up to two years. ⬇️
Attached: 1 image 1/ Military recruitment in Russia's prisons is reported to have slumped following the failure of the Wagner Group's mutiny. Prisoners rioted in support of Yevgeny Prigozhin during the mutiny, but are now 'apathetic' and regard him as a traitor. ⬇️
1/ A Russian religious conscientious objector with a one-year-old child has been sentenced to nearly three years' imprisonment for refusing a mobilisation order. The case illustrates how Russia's laws on conscientious objection are being ignored by the state. ⬇️
Attached: 1 image 1/ Russian construction firms are reportedly being told to send their workers to fight in Ukraine or face losing lucrative contracts from the city of Moscow. It illustrates an ongoing 'hidden mobilisation' as Russia uses every possible option to find manpower for the war. ⬇️
mastodon.social
Scrapping every possible barrel to find some more meat to send into the meat grinder. Having to resort to coercion and threat. This will give units full of troops that don't want to fight, so they'll be sent to the pit instead of being sent to the trenches.
I don't see how anyone can believe time is on Russia's side. The Russian army is thoroughly dysfunctional and the only source of cohesion in the ranks is fear. How long do you really think this can go on?
Nope, the Russians are not technologically more advanced than the Ukrainians. Only domain where that is true is in aircraft. For all ground materiel, it's Ukrainians who have the technological edge. This is what allows them to have an effective counter-battery despite Russia having a massive firepower advantage. Ukrainian artillery is longer ranged and more precise, so they need one shell where the Russians need a hundred.
It's a mix. Like when it comes to artillery, their best, M777, is outmatched by most Russian artillery already. Some of the newer SPHs are better, but are too small in numbers. As for Himars, it's outranged by the new Russian Tornado-S. Except PzH 2000 and some MGS like Casesar and Archer, most of the artillery supplied to Ukraine is equal or inferior. Superior artillery is very few in number, it's unclear how serviceable they are as well.
The biggest difference is the Russian equipment is far more serviceable and stays in battle for much longer.
Russia's artillery is also very precise, they have released many videos where they have showed artillery hits on moving targets.
And Russian drone attacks have been far more relentless in comparison to Ukrainian ones.
As for tanks, the UAF have only received or promised 250 tanks that are equal to the Russians. Out of that, only 35 tanks are equal or more advanced than the T-90M. And the Americans are yet to deliver 31 M1A1 Abrams. About 175 out of 250 tanks' delivery status is unclear. The West also delivered another 550+ tanks, but they are old bullcrap, like the T-72M and PT-91, far inferior to the T-80, T-72B3 and T-90.
They're massively behind the West in these domains. There's a reason why, before 2014, Russia bought French-made optics. When they had to replace them with their domestically-produced ones, it was a serious downgrade in quality.
And it's not like the West is standing still waiting for Russia to catch up. We've seen a technological arms race between NATO and the USSR before, it resulted in the USSR going bankrupt and exploding into plenty of independent countries that hurried to join NATO so that they wouldn't be under Russia's boots anymore.
Of course. Ukrainian combat doctrine isn't, and cannot be, Western combat doctrine because Western combat doctrine is based on establishing air supremacy as the first step, and this is shamefully denied to Ukraine.
But what remains is the organizational doctrine. Russian is heavily centralized, with the trooper on the ground awaiting the order from the top before doing anything. Can't wipe their own butt without Gerasimov telling them how much toilet paper to use.
Whereas western organization doctrine is to rely heavily on NCO and low-ranked officers taking initiatives to react to how the situation unfolds. This very decentralized approach is what allows a variety of tactics to be tried, and what allows to constantly change the tactics. It is the complete opposite of the rigid "do what you're told, and nothing else" system used by Russian forces. So when you say that the Ukrainians can't change their tactics, that's just wrong. It's a Russian problem, not a Ukrainian one.
Sure. But the UAF uses a mix of Western and Soviet. They have been trained by NATO since 2014. And the counteroffensive troops are exclusively trained in NATO doctrine. And NATO will obviously have planned for contingencies, like lack of air superiority.
But yeah, I'd say Ukraine should hold off on the offensive and wait for fighter jets while amassing a larger force. A winter offensive is much more feasible, since fighters are expected by then.
Russia exported a record volume of oil products in March as Moscow successfully developed alternative routes for its deliveries one month after a Western embargo came into force, the Vedomosti business daily reported Wednesday. Supplies of seaborne Russian oil products totaled 3.13 million...
www.themoscowtimes.com
Kpler’s breakdown of Russian oil product exports showed most of the country’s 1.28 million bpd of diesel going to Turkey and Brazil, followed by Libya and Morocco, according to Vedomosti.
One-fifth of the exported Russian diesel was delivered to unknown customers, the publication said.
Russian fuel oil exports also reached an all-time high of 208,000 bpd, with the main buyers being the United Arab Emirates, Nigeria, Singapore, and India.
In comparison, Russia exports 850k bpd of diesel in 2021. Russia refines 5.5m bpd and they need to export about 2.5m bpd. So 1.5m bpd is covered above.
Russia boosted gasoline exports by nearly 50% year-on-year in the first quarter, shipping cargoes directly to Africa as it carved out new trade routes after the European Union sanctioned Russian oil, ship tracking data showed.
www.reuters.com
So, it doesn't look like sanctions have affected exports of refined fuel.
The military has to go through intermediaries to evade sanctions too. All of these intermediaries are deeply corrupt. After all, overbilling the military has been the Russian national sport for decades. That's why Russian troops still use Mosin-Nagant rifles on the front lines.
Which is how you end up with hyperinflation. Sure, Russia isn't going to crumble overnight from this. It's not a near-term death knell. It's still a long-term problem, though.
All countries raise most of their debt internally. India's public debt is $1.9T, out of which less than $150B is external debt.
It is a long term problem, but Russia's public debt is 23% of their GDP. They can easily climb to 100% and still be fine. The US is at 130%, France is at 111%, India is at 85%. It's like people in wheelchairs mocking a guy with a sprained ankle. Russia's 50 years away from facing real debt issues.
The majority of the world hasn't imploded three decades ago because it tried to be bigger than the West while getting stuck in a pointless, hopeless war of expansion. But it happened to Russia, and it'll happen again to Russia, because Putin and his cronies are all imbeciles who have been in charge for far too long and have lost all contact with reality as a consequence.
Speaking in her interview for “Die Zeit”, published on December 7, German ex-Chancellor Merkel said the following: “The 2014 Minsk Agreement was an attempt to buy time for Ukraine. Ukraine used this time to become stronger, as you can see today. Ukraine in 2014-2015 and Ukraine today are not the same.” According to the ex-Chancellor, “it was clear for everyone” that the conflict was suspended and the problem was not resolved, “but it was exactly what gave Ukraine the priceless time.”
This was a plan to sucker Russia into a war. Even if Germany thought war was inevitable and that the Minsk agreements were a joke, meaning there was no plan to actually talk to Russia, then of course the only recourse left was war. These are her own words, Ukraine was being prepared for a war with Russia since 2014, perhaps 2008.
The plan was obvious. Sucker Russia into a war with Ukraine. Then apply sanctions on Russia and then enforce it by forcing other countries to comply. A war in Ukraine followed by the death of their energy market would mean the demise of Russia in just a few years. After that idiot from the US made a fool of himself in India, the West realised that the plan backfired big time. Now it's Europe struggling with an energy crisis.
Funny, the people in the age group that's actually concerned by mobilization are in majority against the war. The Russian who are in favor of the war are those who are old enough or rich enough not to feel at risk of being sent to the frontline. Odd, that.
