This shows that you were ahead of him when it came to propaganda for the Russians.
Ukraine - Russia Conflict
- Thread starter randomradio
- Start date
We're all waiting for your explanation genius. How is everything being more expensive for Russia bad for the EU?
If we wanted to reverse it, we could just lower interest rates, but I guess we don't.
It's simple. An exporter needs a weak currency, an importer needs a strong currency.
What do you think the US' Currency Manipulator list is all about?
US reverses China 'currency manipulator' label
The move comes as the two countries are expected to sign a preliminary trade agreement this week.
www.bbc.com
The weaker the currency gets, the Russians end up earning more rubles for every dollar earned.
In 2014, the Russians earned 3200B rubles for every $100B. So, at 50 billion rubles, that helped the Russians buy a total of 64 Yasen class subs.
In 2020, the Russians earned 6400B rubles for every $100B. So, at 50 billion rubles, that helped the Russians buy a total of 128 Yasen class subs.
Assuming 100 rubles to a dollar for this year, the Russians will 10,000B rubles for every $100B. So, at 50 billion rubles, that will help the Russians buy a total of 200 Yasen class subs.
We know the Virginia B5 costs $3.2B. So for roughly $10B, while the US can buy 3 Virginias, the Russians can buy 20 Yasens.
So how in the heck is this good news for Europe?
The Russian govt is artificially increasing its purchasing power and that has real world effects. And the weakening of the ruble does not have an adverse effect on their market because they are import-independent. Meaning, none of their imports are critical to the survival of the nation. If India or the UK tried doing the same, we'd get screwed. The UK is a net creditor, so all its money is outside the country, and India relies on oil imports.
This shows that you were ahead of him when it came to propaganda for the Russians.
What if he is also right?
You were bragging when the ruble was at 60 to the $, so don't try switching it round now.It's simple. An exporter needs a weak currency, an importer needs a strong currency.
What do you think the US' Currency Manipulator list is all about?
The US said it made the change because China had agreed to refrain from devaluing its currency to make its own goods cheaper for foreign buyers.US reverses China 'currency manipulator' label
The move comes as the two countries are expected to sign a preliminary trade agreement this week.
The weaker the currency gets, the Russians end up earning more rubles for every dollar earned.
In 2014, the Russians earned 3200B rubles for every $100B. So, at 50 billion rubles, that helped the Russians buy a total of 64 Yasen class subs.
In 2020, the Russians earned 6400B rubles for every $100B. So, at 50 billion rubles, that helped the Russians buy a total of 128 Yasen class subs.
Assuming 100 rubles to a dollar for this year, the Russians will 10,000B rubles for every $100B. So, at 50 billion rubles, that will help the Russians buy a total of 200 Yasen class subs.
We know the Virginia B5 costs $3.2B. So for roughly $10B, while the US can buy 3 Virginias, the Russians can buy 20 Yasens.
So how in the heck is this good news for Europe?
The Russian govt is artificially increasing its purchasing power and that has real world effects. And the weakening of the ruble does not have an adverse effect on their market because they are import-independent. Meaning, none of their imports are critical to the survival of the nation. If India or the UK tried doing the same, we'd get screwed. The UK is a net creditor, so all its money is outside the country, and India relies on oil imports.
All those things you mentioned cost more rubles now because of inflation and sanctions on foreign parts, like microchips, that still come from abroad, whether from China or US via black markets.
What if the world you live in doesn't really exist.
Those are for specific situations, where the line must be held, like Tokmak. But that's not the case in front of the line. Meaning, the entire region between the line of contact and the first defense line was given up by the Russians. That's anywhere between 15 and 20Km from the line of contact. So, for a 900Km line, with say 17Km depth, we are talking about an area of 15k+ sq Km.
The same with both Kharkiv and Kherson. They didn't fight tooth and nail for those regions in 2022, they simply withdrew to more defensible positions.
Not really. A 750k strong Russian army would mean 7500 active duty tanks. Europe has only 1500 tanks that can compete with the T-90M.
Yeah, he's ideologically pro-Putin. He's very biased and is trying to push a narrative.
"Poutine est un vrai chef" : ces militaires français fascinés par le modèle russe
La "force" du président russe a longtemps séduit parmi les militaires, convaincus de poursuivre l'action du général de Gaulle en promouvant l'alliance France-Russie.www.lexpress.fr
A former DGSE agent, meanwhile, traces this tropism back much further. He noted a "deep-rooted pro-Russian and pro-Serbian tradition among former Saint-Cyr students", stemming from "the Franco-Russian alliance of 1892, still revered today" and "often combined with a principled hostility to the United States". General Jean-Bernard Pinatel is among those calling for a new "alliance of setbacks" and an exit from NATO. Back in 2011, this army veteran published Russie, alliance vitale, a book prefaced by Sergei Karaganov, a close advisor to Vladimir Putin. Pinatel is now vice-president of Geopragma, a think tank that supports these positions and also includes Caroline Galactéros, Eric Zemmour's current diplomatic adviser. The geopolitical journal Méthode, to which several generals contribute, defends the same theses.
He seems to be realpolitik rather than Macron's dreamland politics. I bet he prefers France going alone on FCAS instead of collaborating with Germany.
I think both countries are hostile to each other, in Africa. But this is just part of a larger game, with France being a major player. Less so in Europe, until Feb 2022.
Whether Zaluzhny and Zelensky, with their recent comments, are lying or just hiding their fangs, I guess we will know over the course of the month.
There we go, not really banned from Russia at all.
Wagner boss Prigozhin is in Russia, Belarus ruler Lukashenko says
Alexander Lukashenko says Prigozhin, who led a short-lived mutiny in Russia, is in St Petersburg.www.bbc.co.uk
Not surprised. Wagner's still alive and kicking after all.
Switch what around? It's the same story. From 32, it climbed to 64, and now 94 or 96 or whatever. The weaker it gets the greater the purchasing power.
Neither inflation nor sanctions have affected anything in Russia. Inflation is expected to be below 6.5% this year and 4.5% from next year. And Russia is sanctions proof 'case they found other buyers.
So basically Putin had some Russian airmen killed for show.
If Russia had everything it needed internally, but it doesn't. That's why their deficit is growing. You've even argued yourself that the benefits of a strong currency outweigh the disadvantages.
They found other buyers who only pay rupees... which are now also worth more than rubles.
It's also possible some officers took the initiative without waiting for orders. Or yes, got them killed for show. Or the coup was real and the rules changed later on. I'm leaning on the last bit.
If Russia had everything it needed internally, but it doesn't. That's why their deficit is growing. You've even argued yourself that the benefits of a strong currency outweigh the disadvantages.
They found other buyers who only pay rupees... which are now also worth more than rubles.
Deficit simply means they are spending more than they are earning. Pretty much all countries operate on deficits.
2022/23’s deficit of 5.4% of GDP was the UK’s twelfth largest since 1948.
Not the Ukrainians fighting in the counteroffensive, genius. They are only trained in the Western doctrine.
So why is Prigozhin walking around free in Russia?
Russia clocked up nearly 2% of GDP from a single quarter and Russia is not the same stable investment proposal that the EU/CANZUK/US is.
They'll likely have been taught several tactics, which they're using depends on orders.
Yeah, they were crowding a guy with rifle and he fired at the ground and a ricochet got him. In the same situation with Russian troops, they'd all be in a mass grave by now.
Who knows what sort of deal was made?
He maybe pardoned in exchange for retiring. He is still a hero in Russia.
Dude, it's a one-time thing 'cause the country's at war. It's not a lot either.
Sure, Russia is not good for investment, which is why they don't care about a strong currency.
You can't teach a rookie several tactics in just a few months. It takes 1-1.5 years to make a soldier on just 1 doctrine. And what the UAF received was a crash course. They are still not fully trained in 1 doctrine, never mind "several".
This wasn't a situation where a rifle was necessary. He had backup.
In any case, the people in Donbas didn't like them.
In Kharkiv, they crumbled pretty much immediately because of how short-staffed and unprepared they were in the area. They really expected Ukraine would only attack in Kherson.
In Kherson, they fought tooth and nail, until their position became untenable; because Ukraine had successfully crippled their logistic flow with repeated attacks on Antonovski bridge and kept a mounting pressure. They held as long as they could. The decision to retreat had to come directly from Surovikin, who had by then recently been put in charge of the "special military operation", and it was very controversial despite all the prestige he had in Russia at the time.
And before that retreat order happened, we had seen the exact same thing as we're seeing now: "Ukraine's offensive is failing", "it's a hopeless meatgrinder", "Ukrainian casualties are several hundred thousand per day", etc. All the same nonsense because people expect real war to happen like it does in a video game where you can complete the entire campaign in a single day.
For historical comparison, in WW2, it took over a month to liberate Caen (Normandy landings on June 6, Caen liberated on July 9) and two months to liberate Avranches (August 1). Nearly three months for the liberation of Paris (August 25). And eleven months for German capitulation (May 8). And that was with immeasurably more means that what has been given to the Ukrainians (such as countless aircraft), plus the Germans also had to manage the Eastern and Southern fronts. So the guys who say "it's failed because it's been a month and they haven't planted their flag on Vladivostok yet" are just being stupid and/or disingenuous. I'm leaning on disingenuous because they never hold Russia to the same standard; after all Kyiv was supposed to have been taken 495 days ago.
In the meantime, we see new videos of exploded Russian materiel every day; while Russia is still recycling the same photos of disabled Leopard tanks again and again and again.
Once again, real war is not like a video game. 7500 tanks require logistic support for 7500 tanks. Russian logistics suck and would be very easily crippled by Western airpower. The Russian A2/AD network has been revealed to be not as good as it was hyped up to be, and so the West could easily target with long range missiles the various pipelines that allow Russian gas and oil to flow from East to West, immobilizing Russian troops. Once deprived of fuel, the tanks and mobile air defense units are stuck and paralyzed -- radars and weapon systems actually need energy to work, surprisingly enough -- so they can be destroyed at leisure.
And there's no way Russia could field 7500 T-90M. If they could do that, they wouldn't be sending their T-54 and T-55 to Ukraine right now. They're more likely to send in the T-34 next than to pull thousands of T-90 out of a hat.
West has a considerable advantage in precision munition, optics including night-vision, and intel including satellite and aerial imagery. Those are huge force multipliers. All Russia can do by gathering scary numbers of troops is increasing their numbers of casualties.
It's largely irrelevant to Europe because trade between Europe and Russia has been reduced to nearly nothing.
And Russia is not purely an exporter. They still rely on Western electronics that they need to import. Except that because of sanctions, they have to go through intermediary countries like Kazakhstan or Georgia to get them, and each added intermediary increases the price further.
Also don't forget that they had to replace their export of refined fuels (very high profit margin since it is a manufactured product) to export of crude oil (very low profit margin as it's a primary resource), since India and China prefer to do their refining themselves so the added value is added at home and benefits their own industry. Europe was a uniquely profitable customer due to Western belief that a post-industrial status is what's best for the economy (thankfully this delusion is over after the Covid shock and the invasion of Ukraine).
Operating on deficit is only possible when you can borrow, meaning that there are lenders who are confident that you will pay them back anyway. If you don't find lenders -- you're in trouble. Who can lend money to Russia? The BRICS? The Arab states? Iran? North Korea? Don't make me laugh.
Western doctrine is precisely to take local initiatives depending on the tactical situation. The whole "improvise, adapt, overcome" thing.
Whereas Russian doctrine is to execute the orders that come from the top, even when they're stupid and doomed to fail. Your order is to drive a tank forward, but your supply line is cut? You drive the tank forward until you run out of gas, and then you stay stranded like an idiot, because that's the order you had; and it's Russia so either you execute order, or you get executed.
Not so much anymore.
ChrisO_wiki (@[email protected])
Attached: 1 image 1/ Sales of Wagner merchandise appear to have collapsed in Russia. In March 2023, many online retailers were selling all kinds of Wagner merchandise, including keyrings, sweatshirts, patches, flags, mugs, souvenir sledgehammers and carved backgammon sets. They're all gone now. ⬇️
mastodon.social
ChrisO_wiki (@[email protected])
Attached: 1 image 1/ Military recruitment in Russia's prisons is reported to have slumped following the failure of the Wagner Group's mutiny. Prisoners rioted in support of Yevgeny Prigozhin during the mutiny, but are now 'apathetic' and regard him as a traitor. ⬇️
mastodon.social
