US - Iran Flare Up

BMD said:
Acts of terrorism during peace time are the maximum extent of their capability, which puts them roughly on par with IS. In fact, technically IS have successfully conducted more terror attacks... even on France alone. They also showed that they can also operate RC planes, which puts them roughly on par with an 11 year-old.

Asking what they could do with 200 Su-57s is like asking what the US could do with 24 Death Stars, because both are roughly the same distance outside their likely defence budgets.
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It is not an act of terrorism when a state retaliates against another state that does not respect its commitments, as is the case with the United States, which has unilaterally withdrawn from a treaty it has signed. What has been organized with the help of Saudi Arabia is an IRAN blockade to dry up its finances and a blockade is an act of war. The Iranian said that if they will not be able to export oil, no one in the Middle East would export it. What we have seen is only the beginning of their action, which shows that they have the means to achieve what they promised and from my point of view they will go all the way.
 
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Picdelamirand-oil said:
It is not an act of terrorism when a state retaliates against another state that does not respect its commitments, as is the case with the United States, which has unilaterally withdrawn from a treaty it has signed. What has been organized with the help of Saudi Arabia is an IRAN blockade to dry up its finances and a blockade is an act of war. The Iranian said that if they will not be able to export oil, no one in the Middle East would export it. What we have seen is only the beginning of their action, which shows that they have the means to achieve what they promised and from my point of view they will go all the way.
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And the saudis & emiratis will expect everyone else except themselves to fight. Notably US and Pakistan but also since Sisi has taken so many favours from KSA - Egypt.
 
Picdelamirand-oil said:
It is not an act of terrorism when a state retaliates against another state that does not respect its commitments, as is the case with the United States, which has unilaterally withdrawn from a treaty it has signed. What has been organized with the help of Saudi Arabia is an IRAN blockade to dry up its finances and a blockade is an act of war. The Iranian said that if they will not be able to export oil, no one in the Middle East would export it. What we have seen is only the beginning of their action, which shows that they have the means to achieve what they promised and from my point of view they will go all the way.
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The US sanctions on Iranian central Bank under Counter terrorism authorities is a big step. Because, it would make it very difficult for even a democratic president to remive, since it is impossible that Tehran would cease supporting Hamas, Hizballa... So, an Iranian military response is locked in. It is just a matter of when..
 
Importance of Operation Bagration: Comment: Operation Bagration was the real D-Day

Germany deployed 228 divisions to the east and only 58 to the west.. In a month after operation Bagration German army group centre was destroyed. The allies in the west achieved no significant breakthrough until a month. A break through was aided only by German redeployment of 46 divisions to the eastern front from the west, so as to cope with the Soviet offensive. So, the Americans and British, for all the countless movies and glorification of D-Day were only fighting 12 German divisions..
 
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BMD said:
Their debt is peanuts because nobody will lend to them at a decent rate.

If they could afford that, they would have already inducted 200 Su-35s starting in 2003 if you think about it. The fact is that they can't. And taking out their navy will prevent them hijacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz as well as being just punishment.

Even assuming your statement to be true, by the time Iran inducts 200 Su-57s at that rate, the US will have B-21s, 1,000+ F-35s, 187 F-22s and LRSO, ARRW, HACKSAW, guided IRBMs and SM-3 IIA etc.
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Naturally they can't fight the US. But it's all about raising the costs if you are a much smaller country. Kinda like what happened in Vietnam.
 
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American troops in Afghanistan are within range of Iranian cruise missiles, so if an actual war were to start, Iran can hit where it's not expected to.
 
randomradio said:
It's a much worse situation. Iran is richer and has a greater population than Vietnam. And it's united, unlike Vietnam.

And the Iranian Army is largely self-sufficient even if the AF and N are nowhere.
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Let's see. Richer & Greater!?! And United too!

You mean thr IRGC & Basij.
 
randomradio said:
Naturally they can't fight the US. But it's all about raising the costs if you are a much smaller country. Kinda like what happened in Vietnam.
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Vietnam isn't remotely similar. That was on the Russian and Chinese border and the US deliberately didn't even fight the war properly for political reasons. Hanoi was left untouched for most of the war. Vietnam also used untrained, drafted soldiers, rather than well-trained volunteers and also lacked precision-guided weaponry for the most part.

If they actually successfully raise costs, that makes regime change more likely. E.g. if they actually sank a carrier, that's their regime gone and the US people would support it to, as if it were an attack on the continental US. Iraq was only complicated because of the whole rebuilding and quenching insurgents part, with Iran they could just leave them to figure that part out for themselves.
 
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Picdelamirand-oil said:
It is not an act of terrorism when a state retaliates against another state that does not respect its commitments, as is the case with the United States, which has unilaterally withdrawn from a treaty it has signed. What has been organized with the help of Saudi Arabia is an IRAN blockade to dry up its finances and a blockade is an act of war. The Iranian said that if they will not be able to export oil, no one in the Middle East would export it. What we have seen is only the beginning of their action, which shows that they have the means to achieve what they promised and from my point of view they will go all the way.
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You don't get to blow up an oil refinery every time a state breaks a treaty, and any state has the right to formerly end a treaty whenever it likes. By your reckoning, the US would have the right to blow up the Kremlin because they breached the INF Treaty. Besides this, Iran was using NK to develop nuclear technology whilst it developed delivery mechanisms. Sanctions are what Iran gets for its actions and sponsoring Hezbollah.

If they go all the way, then they will all go away.
 
BMD said:
Vietnam isn't remotely similar. That was on the Russian and Chinese border and the US deliberately didn't even fight the war properly for political reasons. Hanoi was left untouched for most of the war. Vietnam also used untrained, drafted soldiers, rather than well-trained volunteers and also lacked precision-guided weaponry for the most part.

If they actually successfully raise costs, that makes regime change more likely. E.g. if they actually sank a carrier, that's their regime gone and the US people would support it to, as if it were an attack on the continental US. Iraq was only complicated because of the whole rebuilding and quenching insurgents part, with Iran they could just leave them to figure that part out for themselves.
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I'm too tired to hit you, Paddy. I'm holding out a fist. Please come running into it ASAP. Thank you in advance.
 
A Person said:
American troops in Afghanistan are within range of Iranian cruise missiles, so if an actual war were to start, Iran can hit where it's not expected to.
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You think it's not factored in... I am pretty sure there is a lot less than 14000 US. troops in Afghanistan.. It's all smoke an mirrors..
 
Sulla84 said:
I should say that repeating the abqaiq kind of attack is not in the offing in the near future.. Iran did this using vintage technology. It's main assets were the guys it managed to infiltrate the facilities, and who painted the targets. This might have taken years and there would have been dozens of operatives on the ground. Saudis and Americans would be already hunting them down, if Iran has not yet managed to exfiltrate them.. The next time, Iran if it decides to target abqaiq and khurais with cruise missiles and drones would find the task more difficult... But if they have managed to develop a terrain mapping stealthy missile like SCALP or if they acquire one... then it would be a different story...
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There was no one painting the target, they were RC drones. A bit of jamming will fix that.
 
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