Trumpeting a new conflict in the Middle East: India, South Asia have much to lose
If the US chooses to use Indian bases under the logistics exchange memorandum agreement (LEMOA) to attack Iran, it would have grave implications for Indian strategic interests, writes Lt Gen PC Katoch (retd) for South Asia Monitor
By Lt Gen PC Katoch (retd)
Jan 6, 2020
Consequences of the airstrike authorized by US President Donald Trump that killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, Commander of Iran’s Quds Force, in Baghdad are the subject of intense debate within and outside the US. The US Department of Defense has justified the killing saying, “General Soleimani was actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region.” The strike followed an attack and two-day occupation of the US embassy in Baghdad by pro-Iranian militia, though all Americans had been evacuated safely.
The Democrats have warned of massive consequences. Nancy Pelosi, House Speaker, has spoken of possible dangerous escalation, asking the US administration to immediately brief Congress on its next steps. The legality of killing Soleimani on Iraqi soil, without Iraq’s permission, and whether it was legal under international and US law is under debate. Iraq’s Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi has said the attack violates a deal for keeping US troops in his country. Several Iraqi political factions are calling for expelling US troops.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei condemned the US airstrike and warned that “Harsh revenge awaits the criminals.” Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Mark Esper has warned that Washington may conduct preemptive strikes against Iranian-backed militias.
Trump may have had multiple reasons for authorizing the airstrike. The attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad hit American pride. But this pro-Iranian militia action was prompted by US attacks on Hamas locations in Syria which the US says was in retaliation to the killing of a US contractor. To boost his chances for another presidential term, Trump could also be itching for ‘something,’ since North Korea’s Kim Jong-il has now openly threatened the US and the Afghan Taliban nixed the story of agreeing to a temporary ceasefire by promptly killing 14 Afghan soldiers.
The US strike could also be an effort to further weaken the Iranian government, as part of its continued efforts at regime change. Washington designated Iran’s Quds Force as a terrorist organization and, in retaliation, Iran termed the US military as terrorists. But killing Soleimani is quite different from killing Osama bin-Laden, holed up in Abbotabad under the tutelage of Pakistan’s ISI or Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi who, for long, was a CIA surrogate. Democrat presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders says Trump's dangerous escalation brings the US closer to another disastrous war in the Middle East that could cost countless lives and trillions of dollars.
Trump perhaps also wanted to avenge the devastating Houthi attack on Aramco oil facilities of ally Saudi Arabia, since the Houthis have Iranian backing. Trump has also stated that Soleimani was responsible for terrorist plots in Delhi. This may be to snare India into the conflict but can hardly be believed, considering India-Iran relations. But the US invasion of Iraq was also based on fabricated lies of Iraq going nuclear and it was Washington that installed a Shia regime in Iraq, with zero Sunni representation, that inflamed Shia-Sunni strife in that country. The US also freed the jailed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi that led to the expansion, arming and training of ISIS in Erdogan’s Turkey.
Iran’s retaliation is inevitable – it is a proud nation and cannot take the killing of the Commander of its Quds Force lying down, notwithstanding the story being spread that Soleimani had become a threat to the Iranian government and details of his movement were passed to the US from within. Possibly it was an electronic device with Soleimani or his aide that enabled the kill, given the US or US-Israel global monitoring system with biometric data of individuals – similar to what China is collecting globally for a future US-China conflict.
In what form Iran will retaliate against the US and US interests remains speculative. Closure of the Straits of Hormuz and targeting oil tankers and facilities are some possible options. Yet, Iran may have some surprises up its sleeves. Israel is on full alert amidst political turmoil and the possibility of attacks by Al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations who want to see the end of America consolidating in Iraq can hardly be ruled out.
Concurrent to the killing of Soleimani, the US deployment in its bases in Rota and Moron in Spain has witnessed exponential increase – the largest military deployment since the 2003 Iraq War. The US destroyers deployed from Rota are part of the NATO missile shield used to defend itself in the event of an attack by Iran. Logically, both US and Iran would not want full blown conflict, but to what extent the conflict would escalate cannot be predicted. One thing remains certain, that Trump cannot deal with Iran the way the US has treated Syria. Open conflict with Iran will not only draw in Russia but also China.
In the event of hostilities, crude oil prices are likely to spiral upwards, with or without temporary closure of the Straits of Hormuz. This will hurt many economies, including the Indian and other South Asian economies. Moreover, conflict in Iran will hurt India’s strategic interests. But when has the US bothered about the strategic interests of its partners? Not to mention that if the US chooses to use Indian bases under the logistics exchange memorandum agreement (LEMOA) to attack Iran, it would have grave implications for Indian strategic interests.
Witness the US again coddling Pakistan by sanctioning $125 million in technical support services for F-16s and now resuming International Military Education and Training (IMET) for Pakistan. Naturally, Trump would want ISIS or Jaish al-Adl to become strong in Iran, with CIA working overtime. But Iran would also be waking up its sleeper cells to keep Trump on his toes.
(The author is an Indian Army veteran)
Trumpeting a new conflict in the Middle East: India, South Asia have much to lose
If the US chooses to use Indian bases under the logistics exchange memorandum agreement (LEMOA) to attack Iran, it would have grave implications for Indian strategic interests, writes Lt Gen PC Katoch (retd) for South Asia Monitor
By Lt Gen PC Katoch (retd)
Jan 6, 2020
Consequences of the airstrike authorized by US President Donald Trump that killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, Commander of Iran’s Quds Force, in Baghdad are the subject of intense debate within and outside the US. The US Department of Defense has justified the killing saying, “General Soleimani was actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region.” The strike followed an attack and two-day occupation of the US embassy in Baghdad by pro-Iranian militia, though all Americans had been evacuated safely.
The Democrats have warned of massive consequences. Nancy Pelosi, House Speaker, has spoken of possible dangerous escalation, asking the US administration to immediately brief Congress on its next steps. The legality of killing Soleimani on Iraqi soil, without Iraq’s permission, and whether it was legal under international and US law is under debate. Iraq’s Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi has said the attack violates a deal for keeping US troops in his country. Several Iraqi political factions are calling for expelling US troops.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei condemned the US airstrike and warned that “Harsh revenge awaits the criminals.” Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Mark Esper has warned that Washington may conduct preemptive strikes against Iranian-backed militias.
Trump may have had multiple reasons for authorizing the airstrike. The attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad hit American pride. But this pro-Iranian militia action was prompted by US attacks on Hamas locations in Syria which the US says was in retaliation to the killing of a US contractor. To boost his chances for another presidential term, Trump could also be itching for ‘something,’ since North Korea’s Kim Jong-il has now openly threatened the US and the Afghan Taliban nixed the story of agreeing to a temporary ceasefire by promptly killing 14 Afghan soldiers.
The US strike could also be an effort to further weaken the Iranian government, as part of its continued efforts at regime change. Washington designated Iran’s Quds Force as a terrorist organization and, in retaliation, Iran termed the US military as terrorists. But killing Soleimani is quite different from killing Osama bin-Laden, holed up in Abbotabad under the tutelage of Pakistan’s ISI or Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi who, for long, was a CIA surrogate. Democrat presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders says Trump's dangerous escalation brings the US closer to another disastrous war in the Middle East that could cost countless lives and trillions of dollars.
Trump perhaps also wanted to avenge the devastating Houthi attack on Aramco oil facilities of ally Saudi Arabia, since the Houthis have Iranian backing. Trump has also stated that Soleimani was responsible for terrorist plots in Delhi. This may be to snare India into the conflict but can hardly be believed, considering India-Iran relations. But the US invasion of Iraq was also based on fabricated lies of Iraq going nuclear and it was Washington that installed a Shia regime in Iraq, with zero Sunni representation, that inflamed Shia-Sunni strife in that country. The US also freed the jailed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi that led to the expansion, arming and training of ISIS in Erdogan’s Turkey.
Iran’s retaliation is inevitable – it is a proud nation and cannot take the killing of the Commander of its Quds Force lying down, notwithstanding the story being spread that Soleimani had become a threat to the Iranian government and details of his movement were passed to the US from within. Possibly it was an electronic device with Soleimani or his aide that enabled the kill, given the US or US-Israel global monitoring system with biometric data of individuals – similar to what China is collecting globally for a future US-China conflict.
In what form Iran will retaliate against the US and US interests remains speculative. Closure of the Straits of Hormuz and targeting oil tankers and facilities are some possible options. Yet, Iran may have some surprises up its sleeves. Israel is on full alert amidst political turmoil and the possibility of attacks by Al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations who want to see the end of America consolidating in Iraq can hardly be ruled out.
Concurrent to the killing of Soleimani, the US deployment in its bases in Rota and Moron in Spain has witnessed exponential increase – the largest military deployment since the 2003 Iraq War. The US destroyers deployed from Rota are part of the NATO missile shield used to defend itself in the event of an attack by Iran. Logically, both US and Iran would not want full blown conflict, but to what extent the conflict would escalate cannot be predicted. One thing remains certain, that Trump cannot deal with Iran the way the US has treated Syria. Open conflict with Iran will not only draw in Russia but also China.
In the event of hostilities, crude oil prices are likely to spiral upwards, with or without temporary closure of the Straits of Hormuz. This will hurt many economies, including the Indian and other South Asian economies. Moreover, conflict in Iran will hurt India’s strategic interests. But when has the US bothered about the strategic interests of its partners? Not to mention that if the US chooses to use Indian bases under the logistics exchange memorandum agreement (LEMOA) to attack Iran, it would have grave implications for Indian strategic interests.
Witness the US again coddling Pakistan by sanctioning $125 million in technical support services for F-16s and now resuming International Military Education and Training (IMET) for Pakistan. Naturally, Trump would want ISIS or Jaish al-Adl to become strong in Iran, with CIA working overtime. But Iran would also be waking up its sleeper cells to keep Trump on his toes.
(The author is an Indian Army veteran)
Trumpeting a new conflict in the Middle East: India, South Asia have much to lose
