US - Iran Flare Up

_Anonymous_ said:
Weren't earlier reports amply clear as to the reason why the Ukrainian plane crashed, Paddy? Those reports clearly mentioned SAMs were fired. Later, the Iranian government admitted to the same. What's with your BS speculations as to Cruise missiles being fired?
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The Iranians said they thought it was a cruise missile. That is increasingly implausible. Wrong altitude, wrong size, wrong shape, two missiles to take down a cruise missile????

STEPHEN COHEN said:
Iran Military Suggests US Disruption Of Radar Caused Downing Of Airliner Despite New Video
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Surely they have more than one radar and some kind of communication/integration, if not with each other then with air traffic control. Usually people say US jamming is poor relative to adversaries and now they're saying that they jammed the entire Iranian IADS and C4ISR network so badly that it forced them to shoot down a plane full of their own people. If this is the case, then in an air war they would be able to jam the Iranians into shooting down their own air force.
 
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Saaho said:
Tells you about the professionalism of "Revolutionary Guards". It was asking for trouble.

@vstol Jockey You seem to have some idea about civil aviation too. How hard will it be for person(s) with right authorization to walk into ATC and ask them to stop all flights from taking off? I doubt it can be "Jammed" but any means.
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Just one call from an authorised person can stop operations of any airport in India.
 
I think Iran is lucky (in a weird way) that there were so many Iranians on that plane, because it has all the hallmarks of terrorism otherwise. Their excuses are implausible.
 
BMD said:
I think Iran is lucky (in a weird way) that there were so many Iranians on that plane, because it has all the hallmarks of terrorism otherwise. Their excuses are implausible.
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They're lucky yes. But what more can the Canadians do in the light of the knowledge that the UK was shown by Iran to be impotent after the Iranians seized a Brit tanker. Besides, the Canadians themselves don't have a stellar record when it comes to prosecuting terrorists involved in bombing airlines. You need to read on the Air India Kanishka bombing in 1986. Then as now the victims were mostly Canadians. Unlike now, the perpetrators were mostly Canadians. Most of them are still roaming free. In Canada. And in the UK. Unlike say the Lockerbie bombings. You see, some outrages are more sacrilegious than others. Especially if the victims are whites. As opposed to different shades of brown.
 
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Most of the people on SM are saying that Trump ordered killing of Sulemani to distract the attention of local crowd from his impeachment. That maybe 5% of it and that too due to timing.
The other 95% is that by killing Sulemani US has initiated a chain of event which will see NATO and Gulf countries (maybe Israel too) going to war against the Islamic regime of Iran. Timing of it maybe before 1year from the US Presidential elections.
It is needed because Iran is pursuing a nuclear programme since decades and despite signing the nuclear deal it didn't stopped that. But despite that EU countries chosen to overlook it despite repetitive warnings from US because they didn't wanted to involve in a new conflict in ME.
But US can't go to war against Iran without them. Hence it killed Sulemani. The US leadership knew very well that after killing Sulemani Iran will move back from nuke deal (which it did). Hence all it's facade of not pursuing a nuke program will come out in open.
Since a nuclear powered Iran is a too big threat to be overlooked even for EU they will be forced to discourage Iran from it. The result will be war resulting in the fall of Islamic regime and a reinstating of a secular minded leadership in Iran ( not necessarily democratic).

For India it will be an ideal situation. Secular minded autocratic leadership in ME ( we have them in UAE and Saudi in form of MBZ and MBS and may have in Iran in future) is best for us as given the conservative nature of ME society democracy would result in the rise of Fanatical Islamic groups like Muslim Brotherhood. Islamic autocratic system too is undesirable for the same reason.
For west too it will be best because these regimes will bring a new level of peace and stability in ME and will check the rise of Islamic radicalism hence in future western presence will no longer be required and west too wants that.
Only problem that may remain will be of Turkey. But that could easily be checked by an independent Kurdish nation and through Gulf backed western sponsored proxies in Libya and Syria. Since Turkey is a NATO member hence it also has less space to maneuver. And given the fact that it borders Europe it could easily be crushed by EU and US forces if the situation gets out of control.
Option of changing the leadership through more subtle means will also always remain on table.
 
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_Anonymous_ said:
They're lucky yes. But what more can the Canadians do in the light of the knowledge that the UK was shown by Iran to be impotent after the Iranians seized a Brit tanker. Besides, the Canadians themselves don't have a stellar record when it comes to prosecuting terrorists involved in bombing airlines. You need to read on the Air India Kanishka bombing in 1986. Then as now the victims were mostly Canadians. Unlike now, the perpetrators were mostly Canadians. Most of them are still roaming free. In Canada. And in the UK. Unlike say the Lockerbie bombings. You see, some outrages are more sacrilegious than others. Especially if the victims are whites. As opposed to different shades of brown.
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The UK didn't need to do anything, they just left Iran to destroy itself. Since then they've been implicated in multiple assassinations in European countries, killing of diplomats, drone attacks on oil facilities, rocket attacks on US bases and an embassy attack. They've slowly turned the world against them, and now they've had a senior official Hellfired and reacted with a completely impotent attack and the ridiculous downing of an airliner, which has made other countries completely disregard any stance they have. And quite frankly it makes their IADS look like a terrible joke, especially the fact they claimed they thought it was a cruise missile. Until now people thought they had some decent Russian stuff, now it looks like WWII-era radar technology. Piracy seems to be the pinnacle of their capabilities.

The incident you mention was also 1985 not 1986 and the perpetrators were a Sikh nationalist movement.
 
BMD said:
Video appears to show two missiles striking Ukrainian passenger plane over Iran
I thought they thought it was a cruise missile??? It takes two missiles to bring down a cruise missile?
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Yeah, it takes 2 missiles for sure. Even a decent SAM has a Pk of just 0.8 against cruise missiles. You need a Pk above 0.95 if you are confident enough of bringing down a cruise missile with just 1 SAM, but such a SAM doesn't exist.

As for this incident, I'm sure there's more to it than that.
 
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randomradio said:
As for this incident, I'm sure there's more to it than that.
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The SAM operator was probably a member of ISIS. I simply can't believe that this mistake could be made accidentally. In Ukraine it was a case of an airliner flying a similar route to a military transport plane of similar size and being redirected at the last minute without the knowledge of SAM operators. Here it's an airliner being mistaken for a a cruise missile that's 20x smaller in wingspan and probably >1000x smaller in RCS, and flying a route and altitude that no cruise missile would use and flying the same route it always uses. And the SAM system and air traffic control are on the same team.
 
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randomradio said:
Meaning, completely incompetant. :D
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No, that's actually the only one way he could have been competent. Very evil, but at least competent nonetheless, in that he did what he meant to do.

If he was anything other than ISIS, he is way beyond incompetent and well into the retardation spectrum.
 
Not the right way to go about it but the EU puts trade above commonsense. Iran would need to nuke Paris or Berlin before they woke up.
 
Iran has threatened to junk NPT.. if Europe approaches UNSC... So, US wants JCPOA + Ballistic missile elimination + withdrawal of Iran from Syria and Iraq... Iran by threatening to scrap NPT, is creating additional leverage, because, when and if Trump starts negotiations... he will be in a worse position than Obama was in 2015, when negotiating JCPOA..
Also, Iran is putting Russia and China in a quandary... Because, if the Iranian regime falls, leading to US domination of middle east; next in line for regime overthrow will be Russia, and a lot of US centcom resources and US Diplomatic clout, which is now busy with handling iran, will be redirected to making life hell for Russia...
I like the game... its gonna get very interesting...
 
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Sulla84 said:
Iran has threatened to junk NPT.. if Europe approaches UNSC... So, US wants JCPOA + Ballistic missile elimination + withdrawal of Iran from Syria and Iraq... Iran by threatening to scrap NPT, is creating additional leverage, because, when and if Trump starts negotiations... he will be in a worse position than Obama was in 2015, when negotiating JCPOA..
Also, Iran is putting Russia and China in a quandary... Because, if the Iranian regime falls, leading to US domination of middle east; next in line for regime overthrow will be Russia, and a lot of US centcom resources and US Diplomatic clout, which is now busy with handling iran, will be redirected to making life hell for Russia...
I like the game... its gonna get very interesting...
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You can have leverage of the size of mount everest it doesn't work with Trump, he has created his image of begin unpredictable and do what no other US President can ever do, combined with US economic and military clout gives him almost every card.

You have better chance in battlefield, once you are on Table you are in for a long ride.
 
BlackOpsIndia said:
You can have leverage of the size of mount everest it doesn't work with Trump, he has created his image of begin unpredictable and do what no other US President can ever do, combined with US economic and military clout gives him almost every card.

You have better chance in battlefield, once you are on Table you are in for a long ride.
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The leverage still remains... Part of the reason Trump stood down after Iranian missile strike injured 11 US soldiers, in what was the first missile strike on US bases in decades, was Iran's precision when it hit US base. US has many more cards than Iran. But, Trump is also hindered by his re-election bid, and Iran will milk it..
 
Sulla84 said:
The leverage still remains... Part of the reason Trump stood down after Iranian missile strike injured 11 US soldiers, in what was the first missile strike on US bases in decades, was Iran's precision when it hit US base. US has many more cards than Iran. But, Trump is also hindered by his re-election bid, and Iran will milk it..
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They sure milked it. Stampeded 60+ of their people to death and shot down another 80+ of them. And now the UK, France and Germany are also pulling the plug on the nuclear deal.
 
Unrelated but related.

Masked gunmen kill local commander of Iran's security forces

(PS: Read the comments.)

Masked gunmen kill local commander of Iran's security forces

Associated Press•January 22, 2020
  • 3c6af3442951d1f90452302cd370f9ce
Iran Soleimani Iran on Edge
Women walk past a banner of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in Iraq in a U.S. drone attack on Friday, in Tajrish square in northern Tehran, Iran, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2020. Many Iranians say they are relieved that neither their country nor the United States appear primed right now for a more direct military confrontation that could lead to war. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
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TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Masked gunmen on Wednesday ambushed and killed the local commander of a paramilitary security force in southwestern Iran, an associate of Iran's top general recently killed in an American drone strike in Baghdad, the official IRNA news agency reported.


^Related?

2019–20 Iranian protests - Wikipedia
 
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