@vstol Jockey
According to the Swiss competition, the Rafale doesn't compete with the F-35 in terms of survivability. But we had assumed that already. My hope was the F4.2 will be able to compete with the J-20A/B, at least until the time AMCA becomes available. Personally, I had assumed that the most dangerous version called J-20C by the media will become available only after 2025. So, in theory, the J-20B with limited LO capabilities and non-supercruising engines was not more competitive than the supercruise capable Rafale F4.2 with active cancellation.
J-20A = AL-31FM2/WS-10B engine
J-20B = WS-10C with LO
J-20C = WS-15 LO and supercruise
The expectation was if the F4.2 was competitive with J-20A/B, then we could maintian some parity until J-20C matured around 2030-35, and then the AMCA would step in from that point, ie post 2035. But now it looks like the J-20C with the WS-15 will soon enter production, if it hasn't already. FWIW, we can now assume that China's fighter jet engine troubles are officially over.
AMCA Mk1 will obviously not be operationally ready until 2035 at the minimum. AMCA Mk2 will take up to 2040 to deliver some tangible capability. So the delay from now until 2035 is far too long for us to rely on it.
We are also facing political headwinds from Russia due to QUAD. So it's unlikely that we can depend on the Su-57 either. What was a decent choice even last year doesn't seem to be a viable option anymore.
Personally, I think without 2 squadrons of next gen aircraft ordered before 2025 for delivery before 2030, we are screwed. It could be the F-35 with Growth Option 1.0 or MSA or the Su-57 itself or something else, but I think the decision has to be taken quickly or we won't be able to compete with the Chinese. The H-20 by itself is gonna change the game a lot, never mind the fact that the Chinese will successfully transition into next gen fighters in less than 2 years from now.
So what do you think our options are?