Ukraine - Russia Conflict

BMD said:
They will stop selling petrol/diesel cars in 10-15 years, but the will remain on the road. You also have industrial equipment still, ships, planes etc. And oil makes far more than just fuels.

Maybe not, but it can be reduced dramatically. Saudis have no need of it.
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In India, 98% of petrol and 70% of diesel are used by vehicles. The remaining 30% diesel is used to run generators to make up for power outages. So transportation is very expensive in India. Which is why oil prices make or break economies in the TW. While it will be a gradual process, it's likely the shift will be even faster than 2035 as market forces will dictate the shift away from fossil fuels faster than the govt will be able to. Meaning, ICE vehicle sales may become insignificant in just 5 years as people consciously move away from it and companies may stop producing ICE vehicles long before 2035 in Europe.
 
The rate of casualties is higher than the Vietnam War for both sides. The vast majority of the time during the Vietnam War was spent pottering around in the jungle trying to even find the enemy, whereas this is non-stop 24/7 warfare. Russia has had up to 1500 casualties per day over the last month, up to 1600day before that. In the first weeks up to 1000+ dead in a day. 6000 dead per month is about 200/day, which is the same as for Russia. In Ukraine everyone will fight because they are fighting for survival, for Russia this is a war of convenience and only a few convicts, fools and people who need the money can be fielded. Therefore without mass mobilisation Russia can only lose and even with mass mobilisation it isn't certain, nor are the consequences of mass mobilisation within Russia.
 
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The US lost less than 60k people in Vietnam in 8 years, Russia has lost ~36k in 4 months. That guy is out of touch to even compare it to Vietnam at this point, unless he wants to compare it to the losses of the NVA and Viet Cong, in which case the Russian loss rate is about the same at 100-125k/year, the Ukrainian loss rate is about 70-80% of that by NATO estimates and the US dropped twice the weight of bombs in Vietnam as were dropped in the whole of WWII. North Vietnam had half the population of Ukraine and they won, despite having a 15 times greater casualty rate than the US. So trying to use these loss rates to explain why Ukraine will lose is garbage.
 
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randomradio said:
It basically means they won't contest it.
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They can't contest it because Ukraine now have enough long range artillery to permanently keep it under fire. So the weather forecast is 155mm every hour of every day.
 
lo & behold, there is a Moral rating agency.
www.marketwatch.com

Despite plenty of talk, many U.S. companies have still not fully exited Russia: Moral Rating Agency

In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a host of major U.S. corporations described their efforts to exit the country.
www.marketwatch.com www.marketwatch.com

BMD said:
Belarus soon to formally call itself Russia in case its people get confused one day and think they're part of an independent country like Ukrainians did.
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Belarus literally means white russians. I hope you dont lose your mind when it happens.
 
randomradio said:
In India, 98% of petrol and 70% of diesel are used by vehicles. The remaining 30% diesel is used to run generators to make up for power outages. So transportation is very expensive in India. Which is why oil prices make or break economies in the TW. While it will be a gradual process, it's likely the shift will be even faster than 2035 as market forces will dictate the shift away from fossil fuels faster than the govt will be able to. Meaning, ICE vehicle sales may become insignificant in just 5 years as people consciously move away from it and companies may stop producing ICE vehicles long before 2035 in Europe.
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less sales means less profit, resale value of vehicle will be hit. companies will more or less spin off car divisions and those divisions will be having terrible customer service as it is EOL product.

It might happen slowly in India and other developing countries but oil sooner or later will no longer be the commodity to threaten with. Irony is that gulf cntries used to sell oil at a discount to west and premium to asian customers. Now they will have hard time , it will be lucky if they are in the vehicle let alone the driving seat.
 
jetray said:
less sales means less profit, resale value of vehicle will be hit. companies will more or less spin off car divisions and those divisions will be having terrible customer service as it is EOL product.

It might happen slowly in India and other developing countries but oil sooner or later will no longer be the commodity to threaten with. Irony is that gulf cntries used to sell oil at a discount to west and premium to asian customers. Now they will have hard time , it will be lucky if they are in the vehicle let alone the driving seat.
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The Gulf states have oil and gas. The demand will fall in developed nations, but may well rise in developing nations. Many of them do not have personal transport at the moment but even if not used for that, about 43% is used for other things, which will be on the rise. And the population always increases (despite Wuhan Laboratory's best efforts).


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www.ucsusa.org

Uses of Natural Gas

This comprehensive overview details the many uses of natural gas, including electricity generation, heating, and industrial uses.
www.ucsusa.org www.ucsusa.org

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