MMRCA 2.0 - Updates and Discussions

[_Anonymous_]

The su-57 is in a middle of an upgrade program. When it's done the su-57 will finally have a fifth gen engine with 3d thrust vectoring, 400km r-37(export versions are effective at 200+km).

It's the r-37m and we need something that can atleast provide problems to the j-20. Su-57 with r-37m will be problematic. And we do need aircrafts to replace the su-30mki's air superiority role. The AMCA will be too late. The f-35 won't be inducted in significant numbers to really provide a game changing effect. With the su-57 we can atleast keep the entirety of plaaf and paf's 4th gen inventory at a distance. The rafale with its meteor can't provide that effect simply because we don't have Rafales in significant numbers. The su-57 might not be good against the f-35 but against 4.5,4,3.5 gen fighters it will perform considerably well. And IAF had always kept it's options open regarding the FGFA. The main gripe of the IAF with the su-57 is the lack of stealthy engine on top of the mediocre stealth. But at 0.5 sqm RCS it pretty much can take out most aircrafts in paf and plaaf arsenal.
And once a supposed su-60mki/FGFA equivalent comes we can add new irst, virupaksha variant radar, astra mk3, rudram and many more munitions. The AMCA will enter service likely in 2035+ optimistically. So for the next decade we need some fifth gen fighters. The f-35 will be of limited use because of American restrictions on customisation. With su-57 thanks to its lesser sophistication we can go do a far deeper customisation and take those learnings and transfer it on amca mk2.
The su-57's radar can detect targets with an RCS (Radar Cross Section) of 0.1 square meters at a range of up to 90 km.
So basically everything from f-16,j-10,jf-17,j-11,j-16 can basically be pushed back around 150km in their airspace with the su-57/r-37m combo. This cannot be done with the meteor simply because we don't have the numbers and in case of attrition we don't have the option to license produce the meteor like the r-37m right now.

Our target ought to be 2030 , like 2022 was the holy grail for RST & Avi Raina . Too bad nothing much happened as far as procurement goes & Paxtan wasn't split to pieces as far as 2022 went , with the result RST was reduced to special pleading exhorting us to consider emergency procurements.

We're due for a showdown with China around 2030 give or take a year. Whatever we need to get ought to be in place by 2029 latest. Whatever comes after that won't matter much in the wider scope of things. This time 2035 , the worst would be over , one way or another.

This rules out pretty much most of the options we have like the Su-57. This platform needs at least 4-5 more years to mature. Besides however good this platform is , it's more in competition with Rafales as far as we're concerned than with the F-35 & the former enjoys a first mover advantage.

Had we not gone in for the Rafales we would definitely have considered the Su-57 which as of now is the best quasi 5th Gen FA in business. The Rafales would equal or surpass it with their F5 upgrades with the Su-57 undergoing their own upgrades to render it superior in 2040 . This cat & mouse game is eternal.

Besides the Su-57 is still a Work in Progress (WiP) FA . After burning their fingers umpteen times including with the MKI & the IN with the INS Vikramaditya & the air complement of MiG-29K , I doubt either entities are interested in WiP Platforms . Arguably that's one of the principal reasons they're not interested in the F-35 too among a whole host of other reasons.

Which in turn brings me to the much lamented MMRCA , MMRCA 2.0 / MRFA tender. Apparently MoD has been tasked by PMO to reduce the time taken to conclude negotiations & signing of an agreement with the vendor within 2-3 years of the AON being issued which in turn brings the MRFA back in biz.

However what does that say for the immediate future of the IAF particularly keeping the golden period of 2030 in mind is unknown. Perhaps we'd go in for another emergency purchase of 36 nos Rafales for the IAF directly imported from Dassault Merignac lines & combine the Rafale M order with say 72 nos Rafales for the IAF to be mfgd here .

Suffice to say we don't know what will transpire but whatever is to be expected will unfold in the next 2-3 months. Either way we'd know how the GoI is thinking & how they go about ameliorating the situation for the IAF.

 

[Lolwa]

Could be average, not frontal.

It is average. If we look at j-20 frontally the RCS is closer to 0.001-0.00015sqm RCS. If the Australian simulations are even close to eing accurate the slighter right side has some fluctuation which lead to a jump of 10 sqm RCS, but that most likely would have been fixed in later production variant. Even then it's RCS ends up being 0.1-1 sqm RCS due to its canards.

 

[randomradio]

War with China in 2030?

They won't be ready for it by then. They cannot defeat the IA with what they currently have. Any war in the current state will turn into a slugfest that India will win. PLAGF in Tibet has stagnated, whereas IA is still modernizing. Meaning, the IA is catching up to the PLAGF in deployed capabilities. Indian surveillance systems have achieved a generational change too, and will move up a step further by 2030.

All of the CCP's domestic efforts in managing public opinion are focused on the US as the enemy. There's the perception that India is a middling power that is incapable of threatening the West relative to China. Plus the general air of superiority the average Chinese have over Indians prevents them from looking at India as a primary threat. India's stance on Ukraine has many supporters within China. They also see the double standards the US applies to China and India's positions on Ukraine. So it's difficult for the CCP to push a more serious anti-India narrative, even if India's military power is more threatening to them than the US. Overall their image of India as an enemy is centered around a small border dispute, but chiefly around the US-led QUAD. So it always goes back to the US, that's the monkey on the CCP's back, not India. The worst thing they can do now is to fail against India. They won't be able to recover from such a big PR blowback.

Possibility of shenanigans? Yes. Full blown war? No. They will find a middle ground before things go south, like they did a few months ago.

2035-40 is the next window of opportunity, when the PLAAF and the PLAGF go through the next modernization cycle while the IA begins stagnating. Closer to 2040 than 2035. If China sees India as a threat that needs to be dealt with alongside the US, then it will take even longer due to the need to fight on three fronts simultaneously.

MRFA tender may take 2-3 years, but after adding negotiations and deliveries, it will be a 7+ year wait. The IAF Chief was hinting at off-the-shelf purchases to offset the gap if necessary.

 

[Hydra]

War with China in 2030?

They won't be ready for it by then. They cannot defeat the IA with what they currently have. Any war in the current state will turn into a slugfest that India will win. PLAGF in Tibet has stagnated, whereas IA is still modernizing. Meaning, the IA is catching up to the PLAGF in deployed capabilities. Indian surveillance systems have achieved a generational change too, and will move up a step further by 2030.

All of the CCP's domestic efforts in managing public opinion is focused on the US as the enemy. There's the perception that India is a middling power that is incapable of threatening the West relative to China. Plus the general air of superiority the average Chinese have over Indians prevents them from looking at India as a primary threat. India's stance on Ukraine has many supporters within China. They also see the double standards the US applies to China and India's positions on Ukraine. So it's difficult for the CCP to push a more serious anti-India narrative, even if India's military power is more threatening to them than the US. Overall their image of India as an enemy is centered around a small border dispute, but chiefly around the US-led QUAD. So it always goes back to the US, that's the monkey on the CCP's back, not India. The worst thing they can do now is to fail against India. They won't be able to recover from such a big PR blowback.

Possibility of shenanigans? Yes. Full blown war? No. They will find a middle ground before things to south, like they did a few months ago.

2035-40 is the next window of opportunity, when the PLAAF and the PLAGF go through the next modernization cycle while the IA begins stagnating. Closer to 2040 than 2035. If China sees India as a threat that needs to be dealt with alongside the US, then it will take even longer due to the need to fight on three fronts simultaneously.

MRFA tender may take 2-3 years, but after adding negotiations and deliveries, it will be a 7+ year wait. The IAF Chief was hinting at off-the-shelf purchases to offset the gap if necessary.

No one can predic at what time any war can break out. It can be today or tomorrow or never. What we need to do is be prepared for that. Against pak, we are in a ok ok situation, against china we are in a pathetic situation. Their inventories of SU27 variant alone can make havoc on us, stealth and bomber fleet is cherry on top. Though not effective rocket force is an additional threat from them.

 

[Bon Plan]

It is average. If we look at j-20 frontally the RCS is closer to 0.001-0.00015sqm RCS. If the Australian simulations are even close to eing accurate the slighter right side has some fluctuation which lead to a jump of 10 sqm RCS, but that most likely would have been fixed in later production variant. Even then it's RCS ends up being 0.1-1 sqm RCS due to its canards.

You are able to evaluate a RCS just by viewing a picture ?
Congrats.

 

[randomradio]

No one can predic at what time any war can break out. It can be today or tomorrow or never. What we need to do is be prepared for that. Against pak, we are in a ok ok situation, against china we are in a pathetic situation. Their inventories of SU27 variant alone can make havoc on us, stealth and bomber fleet is cherry on top. Though not effective rocket force is an additional threat from them.

The Chinese don't have sufficient air bases facing India.

 

[Hydra]

The Chinese don't have sufficient air bases facing India.

What if they have used aerial refuellers to mitigate the range problems?

 

[randomradio]

What if they have used aerial refuellers to mitigate the range problems?

That's pointless. More targets for us to attack. Can't rearm in the air either.

 

[Speedster1]

I can see how buying both Su-57 and F-35 can help us hedge against risk. Qatar has done this (F-15 + EF-2000 + Rafale) and quite successfully I'd say. In our case though, either option will cancel each other out - automatically. Neither the US nor Russia will agree to have their respective top of the line jets operate in close proximity to their nemesis, esp after Ukraine.

If we pulled off a diplomatic coup and somehow managed to get both jets, their specs'd be too heavily watered-down to matter. The West already suspects India to be a conduit for Russia accessing their military tech.

For example, speculations about French Suffren SSN tech falling into Russian hands via India. Firewalling F-35 and Su-57 in IAF service will result in duplication of training and infrastructure. Higher opex will eat into capex sooner than later as MoF tightens the purse strings.

We may have to look at some asymmetric options for AD like laser, DEW, passive radar/ESM, OTH, HPR, decoys, etc while doubling down on force-multipliers like airborne SIGINT, AWACS + SAMs of all sizes. Buying 2-3 squadrons of Rafale F4/5 off-the-shelf can arrest the fall in squadron numbers.

We can look at commercial tech like Airbus FACO line + French SMR co-op to fill the 50% offset requirement. Ditch Rafale local assembly.

 

[Lolwa]

You are able to evaluate a RCS just by viewing a picture ?
Congrats.

No I am reading RCS measurements from online resources and AI chatbots. I maybe wrong and j-20 might turn out to have way higher RCS than assumed.

 

[Ashwin]

IAF aiming to induct new multirole fighter jets in 4-5 years, US F-15 Strike Eagle may be new entrant in global tender​

With a high-level committee having accepted the need for getting new multirole fighters, the Indian Air Force is looking to start induction of these planes in the next four to five years through a fast tracked global tender.

@Lolwa how did you do it?

 

[Fatalis]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1899487672697081961

 

[Lolwa]

IAF aiming to induct new multirole fighter jets in 4-5 years, US F-15 Strike Eagle may be new entrant in global tender​

With a high-level committee having accepted the need for getting new multirole fighters, the Indian Air Force is looking to start induction of these planes in the next four to five years through a fast tracked global tender.

@Lolwa how did you do it?

I also predicted the 60 squadron thing. You never believed me. Although this is just the same drama. It's either rafale or f-15EX.
It's either su-57 or f-35.
And the problem is IAF needs all 4.
Reminder that although IAF is aiming for 60 squadrons. It's the minimum conventional deterrence we need for a 2.5 front war. Honestly at 75 squadrons which should be the aims for the IAF we would be easily capable to do total war against Pakistan. Although China will still be problem.
I just hope the f-15EX and F-35 are g2g license production deals With HAL and Mahindra getting production rights for the f-15EX and tata getting production for atleast wing and fuselage production for the f-35.
Then we just need rafale and su-57. And viola.

 

[Lolwa]

The Chinese don't have sufficient air bases facing India.

They have the industrial capability to just build airbases in a few months. Let's not be delusional about this. Also once the j-36 and j-50 come online their range issue is negated. It's already negated with their j-20's.

 

[randomradio]

IAF aiming to induct new multirole fighter jets in 4-5 years, US F-15 Strike Eagle may be new entrant in global tender​

With a high-level committee having accepted the need for getting new multirole fighters, the Indian Air Force is looking to start induction of these planes in the next four to five years through a fast tracked global tender.

@Lolwa how did you do it?

In the article:
The Indian Air Force is looking to achieve the number of 60 fighter aircraft squadrons by the year 2047

That means up to 500 Mk2 and MRFA, alongside 250 AMCA. But it's not official until it's official.

Btw, F-15EX was always Boeing's contender. SH production is pretty much done. But it won't win 'cause it is not capable of being shortlisted, and even if it did, the cost would be too high. Qatar's paying $12B for 36 for technologies and capabilities the MKI MLU will comfortably exceed.

 

[randomradio]

They have the industrial capability to just build airbases in a few months. Let's not be delusional about this. Also once the j-36 and j-50 come online their range issue is negated. It's already negated with their j-20's.

Just figuring out where to build a base takes years. 70% of Tibet is on permafrost, which means with rising temperatures, the ground moves. So they cannot build bases on permafrost. Once that's done, it will still take a few more years to build a base and train personnel.

It will be easy to tell. The day China becomes ready to militarily challenge India, Tibet will become a construction yard. BROSINT will report such activities on Twitter.

Range isn't the main issue, being able to operate close to our borders is. The J-20 has sufficient range to operate from the plains and bring payload to India with the help of refuelers. But with to and fro transit being 3-4 hours long and with about 1 hour lost in refueling followed by about 3 hours of downtime in the base, the effective rate of utilisation of such a jet is just 1-2 per day, versus Rafale/LCA doing the same thing 5-10 times a day from just 100-150 km away.

So we can say the ratio is at least 5 times, meaning we need 1 jet for every 5 of theirs. The IAF has always dreamed of operating 60 squadrons since the 70s. If we assume the current mention of 60 squadrons is fighters alone and not fighters + drones like Ghatak, the PLAAF will need at least 4000 to 5000 fighters just for India. For posterity's sake, let's just say double, that's 2500 jets. Do they have the infra for such a large fleet? Nope. All of their efforts are focused elsewhere.

Instead of competing in number of fighter jets, or more specifically, number of sorties, the Chinese plan to compensate for the difference with missiles. But we plan on doing the same. With IRF coming up, the yearly production rate of missiles like Pralay will be in the triple digits alongside Brahmos, LR-LACM, and LORA.

 

[LX1111]

Just figuring out where to build a base takes years. 70% of Tibet is on permafrost, which means with rising temperatures, the ground moves. So they cannot build bases on permafrost. Once that's done, it will still take a few more years to build a base and train personnel.

Tibet does not have that much frozen soil, and it is not difficult to build on frozen soil, as evidenced by the large number of high grade roads and railways China has built in Tibet



Those sticks on the side of the road,
It can absorb and discharge the heat that causes the permafrost to melt in the summer, so as to prevent the heat from directly contacting the permafrost and avoid the permafrost melting.

 

[LX1111]

Range isn't the main issue, being able to operate close to our borders is. The J-20 has sufficient range to operate from the plains and bring payload to India with the help of refuelers. But with to and fro transit being 3-4 hours long and with about 1 hour lost in refueling followed by about 3 hours of downtime in the base, the effective rate of utilisation of such a jet is just 1-2 per day, versus Rafale/LCA doing the same thing 5-10 times a day from just 100-150 km away

Well, the exact range of the J20 is not clear, but the range of the SU30 series is 3000KM, enough to cover from Hotan and Yunnan airports to Kashmir and the northeast states, there is no demand for refueling aircraft,
The J10C also has a range of 2509km when carrying three tanks, which can also cover the main battlefield, so the distance you mentioned is never a problem,

 

[Hydra]

The distance problem we claim is not havinga merit i fear, @Hellfire had dismissed it in his tweet long back.
@randomradio

 

[LX1111]

The distance problem we claim is not havinga merit i fear, @Hellfire had dismissed it in his tweet long back.
@randomradio

These things can be measured with a map, it is not a very complicated thing, right？

Yunnan Yi Airport, where the 132nd Air Brigade is stationed, is 612KM from the Indian border and can be reached in 40 minutes by flight

For example, Hotan Airport, 380KM away from Leh, is stationed with the 99th Aviation Brigade, which can easily reach the sky over Leh in 25 minutes
All I'm assuming here is that the plane is traveling at Mach 0.8