Project 75 India Diesel-electric Submarine Programs (SSK) : Updates and Discussions

[randomradio]

If so, they what according to you, may be a possible timeline for RFP of MMRCA and negotiation and signing period , also for P75I.

I will just bookmark it, and if you turn out right, then you can say "I said so" or the other way round.

P-75I, if we have two OEMs, assuming a tender start in Aug 2023, then we could see a winner chosen between end-2024 and mid-2025. Contract signature has too many variables to guess, it could take 6 months or 2 years. We love to haggle. I'd say the contract will be signed anytime in 2026. Dunno what's the plan if only the Koreans participate.

MRFA, assuming RFP start in June 2023, we will see flight trials after elections, completing by end 2024. Then a shortlist within 6-9 months followed by a winner by mid-2026. If Rafale wins, a signature will be done within 6-12 months, well before mid-2027. A non-Rafale jet could take up to 2 years, so anytime in 2028 or even 2029. A more optimistic date for a Rafale victory should give us a signature in the second half of 2026.

Basically, tender start to negotiations is 1.5 years for P-75I and 3 years for MRFA.

The difference between last time, when Scorpene and Rafale were chosen, and this time is, both services know exactly what they want. With the IN having already decided on what they want from their SSN and the IAF having done the same with MKI MLU and AMCA, both know what holes need to be plugged. So they won't waste time discussing and debating like they did earlier. MRFA in particular will see less wastage of time from the OEM's side, unlike what happened with MMRCA. As for P-75I, had at least 2 OEMs been prepared, we would have seen a winner being selected right now, alongside MRCBF. Both were supposed to be signed this year.

 

[randomradio]

Why is no one questioning the very basic problem?

That is requirement of proven AIP?

We are no USA!!!!! We cannot afford two systems doing the same task!!!!

We are going to pay x amount to get DRDO AIP operational

And Y amount to get ToT/licence of a foreign AIP.

Ideally we should scrap one.

If DRDO AIP is likely to be delivered according to the promises, then why import a foreign one ?

And if its not, then why not cancel it altogether?

Which nation in the world operates two different types of AIP?

China has some 30 AIP submarines I think, all have Sterling cycle based systems.

And the moment (if DRDO AIP is as good as claimed) cancel the requirement of a foreign AIP, we get the French back on. And all the requirements, the CMS, the Cylindrical Array, pump jet, everything comes.

By the way France's 2nd gen AIP is more ahead in development than our own AIP.

By asking for proven systems, they are totally de-risking the program. They want ready-to-fight capabilities, not get into another development hell like the SSN and DRDO's AIP. The IAF is running the MRFA the way they are for the same reason. Development programs like LCA Mk2 and AMCA, representing half the fleet, are enough of a risk as it is. P-75I could very well form 2/3rds of the SSK fleet or half the sub fleet.

Think about it this way... What if DRDO's AIP, the SSN, LCA Mk2 and AMCA are significantly delayed or fail?

 

[Ankit Kumar]

P-75I, if we have two OEMs, assuming a tender start in Aug 2023, then we could see a winner chosen between end-2024 and mid-2025. Contract signature has too many variables to guess, it could take 6 months or 2 years. We love to haggle. I'd say the contract will be signed anytime in 2026. Dunno what's the plan if only the Koreans participate.

MRFA, assuming RFP start in June 2023, we will see flight trials after elections, completing by end 2024. Then a shortlist within 6-9 months followed by a winner by mid-2026. If Rafale wins, a signature will be done within 6-12 months, well before mid-2027. A non-Rafale jet could take up to 2 years, so anytime in 2028 or even 2029. A more optimistic date for a Rafale victory should give us a signature in the second half of 2026.

Basically, tender start to negotiations is 1.5 years for P-75I and 3 years for MRFA.

The difference between last time, when Scorpene and Rafale were chosen, and this time is, both services know exactly what they want. With the IN having already decided on what they want from their SSN and the IAF having done the same with MKI MLU and AMCA, both know what holes need to be plugged. So they won't waste time discussing and debating like they did earlier. MRFA in particular will see less wastage of time from the OEM's side, unlike what happened with MMRCA. As for P-75I, had at least 2 OEMs been prepared, we would have seen a winner being selected right now, alongside MRCBF. Both were supposed to be signed this year.

#1041 marked

 

[Ankit Kumar]

By asking for proven systems, they are totally de-risking the program. They want ready-to-fight capabilities, not get into another development hell like the SSN and DRDO's AIP. The IAF is running the MRFA the way they are for the same reason. Development programs like LCA Mk2 and AMCA, representing half the fleet, are enough of a risk as it is. P-75I could very well form 2/3rds of the SSK fleet or half the sub fleet.

Think about it this way... What if DRDO's AIP, the SSN, LCA Mk2 and AMCA are significantly delayed or fail?

There's a class apart difference between LCA MK2 or AMCA and MMRCA (F18 or Rafale)

Think it this way, if we are surely going to get a foreign AIP, why not save few bucks and cancel DRDO AIP?

Its not like we have an abundance of funds. Do we ?

 

[randomradio]

There's a class apart difference between LCA MK2 or AMCA and MMRCA (F18 or Rafale)

It doesn't really matter. If there's a delay or a failure, then there's a hole that's not getting filled up. MRFA can do the LCA's work too.

Think it this way, if we are surely going to get a foreign AIP, why not save few bucks and cancel DRDO AIP?

'Cause we need to support our industry. We can't just rely on imports.

One concerns the capability of our industry and the other concerns our warfighting capability. Sadly, the timelines of the two don't match, hence the need for two independent programs. Everything comes at a cost, if we want the capability, we gotta pay. It's DRDO's fault for taking their own sweet time to develop pretty much anything.

 

[Amarante]

(…)
Only Korea has a functioning AIP and can meet deadlines realistically.

Germany warned to leave saying the RFP time is too short to design a new sub, they wanted 12 months. They came back once the tender was extended. (…).

ET (dec.02)
i read: « (…) Transfer of technology is a key requirement of the tender but it is learnt that at least one of the foreign bidders is yet to obtain permissions to share critical technology that was developed using government funding. (…)»

Ze Bundestag salutes you! You understand, the sale of "Type-214India" and the ToTs could upset China (in nomine bmv, vv, and santa benz)...

By the way, the AIP of the Korean Dosan Ahn Changho batch1 (KSSIII-1) is German: Siemens polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) hydrogen fuel cells.

Good luck for the re-export...
(later batches will be equipped with Li-ion batteries. This is not done)

 

[randomradio]

ET (dec.02)
i read: « (…) Transfer of technology is a key requirement of the tender but it is learnt that at least one of the foreign bidders is yet to obtain permissions to share critical technology that was developed using government funding. (…)»

Ze Bundestag salutes you! You understand, the sale of "Type-214India" and the ToTs could upset China (in nomine bmv, vv, and santa benz)...

By the way, the AIP of the Korean Dosan Ahn Changho batch1 (KSSIII-1) is German: Siemens polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) hydrogen fuel cells.

Good luck for the re-export...
(later batches will be equipped with Li-ion batteries. This is not done)

The KSS-III's AIP is Korean. The fuel cells were designed by GS Caltex and produced by Bumhan. The Siemens PEM is on the Korean Type 214 called KSS-II, but that's not the one offered to India.

The diesel engine and electric motor are German.

I don't believe we are looking at producing the fuel cells in India, so I doubt exports will be a problem even for the German side. The same for the diesel engine. The electric motor is expected to be Indian.

The only problem with the Korean sub is they are not offering VLS.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

ET (dec.02)
i read: « (…) Transfer of technology is a key requirement of the tender but it is learnt that at least one of the foreign bidders is yet to obtain permissions to share critical technology that was developed using government funding. (…)»

Ze Bundestag salutes you! You understand, the sale of "Type-214India" and the ToTs could upset China (in nomine bmv, vv, and santa benz)...

By the way, the AIP of the Korean Dosan Ahn Changho batch1 (KSSIII-1) is German: Siemens polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) hydrogen fuel cells.

Good luck for the re-export...
(later batches will be equipped with Li-ion batteries. This is not done)

In the Minesweepers tender of Indian Navy, Koreans emerged winner. But when it came the time for execution, it was found out that the ToT actually belonged to Italians and Koreans are not able to deliver it.

So what you are saying is pretty much true.

 

[randomradio]

In the Minesweepers tender of Indian Navy, Koreans emerged winner. But when it came the time for execution, it was found out that the ToT actually belonged to Italians and Koreans are not able to deliver it.

So what you are saying is pretty much true.

We are not looking for ToT for a lot of the foreign supplied electronics on the KSS-III. We may even integrate some of our own instead.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

We are not looking for ToT for a lot of the foreign supplied electronics on the KSS-III. We may even integrate some of our own instead.

Anyways, we do not seem to agree on MMRCA and P75 I programs. Both our opinions are already here. Let's wait and watch for these two topics.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Anyways, we do not seem to agree on MMRCA and P75 I programs. Both our opinions are already here. Let's wait and watch for these two topics.

I've a feeling Naval Group will be back given RoK / DSME's dismal track record . The French contingent here should rejoice.

Besides has the RFP come out ? For all you know they may ask for an option for the AIP with a separate quotation for it , for by the time we get to issuing the order & building the submarines , DRDO AIP should be certified & ready for incorporation into this project.

See whatever IN is doing w.r.t AIP as a back up plan .

 

[Amarante]

The KSS-III's AIP is Korean. The fuel cells were designed by GS Caltex and produced by Bumhan. The Siemens PEM is on the Korean Type 214 called KSS-II, but that's not the one offered to India. (…)

my bad…
i thought the aip would be replaced by li-ion batteries from kss3 batch2 onwards. And so I didn't think they had developed an aip for batch1 only/specifically, and were therefore using the kss2 one (but the tonnage difference should have alerted me).
after checking, batch2 will use li-ion+aip. ok.
… if it gives satisfaction... there is no hindsight yet, we cannot say that the system is "proven". it is only one year since RoKN commissioned the Dosan Ahn Changho.
i noticed that you seem enthusiastic about the Korean submarines, but are you aware that they are facing many difficulties?
The Republic of Korea Navy (ROK Navy) announced that defects were found in 3 of the 9 Son Won-il-class submarines, the South Korean variants of the Type 214, currently in active service. (& more)

… and that's without counting Indonesia’s TNI-AL setbacks with its Nagapasa-class... which are improved Changbogo-class (KSS-1): "(…) None of them are operational: according to sources inside the Indonesian defence industry, it appeared at the time that the KRI Nagapasa submarine did not meet the technical specifications of the specifications: maximum diving speed, operational immersion were not achieved. Nor was the boat capable of launching its tactical weapons. The same sources indicate that the KRI Ardadedali and KRI Alugoro are in the same material condition. (…)" !!!

in short, Korean-made submarines do not shine by their reliability, neither for export, nor even within the RoKN…

. . . . . . . . . . .

Meanwhile, the USN's SSBNs are nesting in the Indian Ocean
excerpts: ... a press release of 28 November states that the SSBN-736 USS 'West Virginia' made a stopover at the Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia (25 - 31 October 2022)

This patrol by the SSBN-736 was therefore related to a US Navy operational experiment conducted with the support of the Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia (...) in order to carry out maintenance unavailability

The operational experiment was therefore probably intended to explore the possibility of deploying SSBNs "forward".

The SSBN-736 mission could be a precursor to regular deployments of the six Ohio based on the Atlantic coast.

A new operational cycle is taking shape: Ohio-class SSBNs could be deployed in 800-day missions, with crew relief and dockside maintenance, (...) from Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.

The Indian Ocean is "empty" of a submarine presence. Local submarines do not have the endurance conferred by naval nuclear propulsion to worry or hinder the deployment of US SSBNs.

There could be a permanent Ohio in the northern Indian Ocean. /deepl

 

[randomradio]

my bad…
i thought the aip would be replaced by li-ion batteries from kss3 batch2 onwards. And so I didn't think they had developed an aip for batch1 only/specifically, and were therefore using the kss2 one (but the tonnage difference should have alerted me).
after checking, batch2 will use li-ion+aip. ok.
… if it gives satisfaction... there is no hindsight yet, we cannot say that the system is "proven". it is only one year since RoKN commissioned the Dosan Ahn Changho.
i noticed that you seem enthusiastic about the Korean submarines, but are you aware that they are facing many difficulties?
The Republic of Korea Navy (ROK Navy) announced that defects were found in 3 of the 9 Son Won-il-class submarines, the South Korean variants of the Type 214, currently in active service. (& more)

… and that's without counting Indonesia’s TNI-AL setbacks with its Nagapasa-class... which are improved Changbogo-class (KSS-1): "(…) None of them are operational: according to sources inside the Indonesian defence industry, it appeared at the time that the KRI Nagapasa submarine did not meet the technical specifications of the specifications: maximum diving speed, operational immersion were not achieved. Nor was the boat capable of launching its tactical weapons. The same sources indicate that the KRI Ardadedali and KRI Alugoro are in the same material condition. (…)" !!!

in short, Korean-made submarines do not shine by their reliability, neither for export, nor even within the RoKN…

It seems to be a problem with a German component on just a few subs.

By the time a deal is signed, we can expect the sub and AIP to be operationally ready. Even if there are problems, it's still a significantly less of a risk than a new design. But I do like to believe the IN is not happy with the current lot of tech and reliability available.

I haven't read anything about Korea removing AIP from the KSS-III. Only the Japanese Taigai class removes AIP in favour of LiB only.

. . . . . . . . . . .

Meanwhile, the USN's SSBNs are nesting in the Indian Ocean
excerpts: ... a press release of 28 November states that the SSBN-736 USS 'West Virginia' made a stopover at the Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia (25 - 31 October 2022)

This patrol by the SSBN-736 was therefore related to a US Navy operational experiment conducted with the support of the Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia (...) in order to carry out maintenance unavailability

The operational experiment was therefore probably intended to explore the possibility of deploying SSBNs "forward".

The SSBN-736 mission could be a precursor to regular deployments of the six Ohio based on the Atlantic coast.

A new operational cycle is taking shape: Ohio-class SSBNs could be deployed in 800-day missions, with crew relief and dockside maintenance, (...) from Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.

The Indian Ocean is "empty" of a submarine presence. Local submarines do not have the endurance conferred by naval nuclear propulsion to worry or hinder the deployment of US SSBNs.

There could be a permanent Ohio in the northern Indian Ocean. /deepl

It's sort of in our interests. An Ohio deployment would also mean greater deployment of USN SSNs. So that's good news for now. Intelligence of their patrol routes will be of value to us in the future.

We will have 2 Russian SSNs from 2026-30 onwards, at least 1 in 2026. Then our own SSNs in the 2030s.

 

[Amarante]

(financialexpress, oct.19)

Bharat Forge, General Atomics to collaborate for li-ion battery systems​

Bharat Forge and General Atomics’ Electromagnetic Systems Group (GA-EMS) will collaborate for Lithium-Ion battery system for naval platforms for the Indian Navy.

https://www.financialexpress.com/defence/bharat-forge-general-atomics-to-collaborate-for-li-ion-battery-systems/2721452/

 

[marich01]

MDL did not send their most recent meet details yet, but in the previous meet this complex process was well described. They will go on major upgrade of facilities once one order is confirmed.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Every now & then the breast beating begins. But some interesting revelations here. Having said that, there's no corroborative evidence for it so take it with a pinch of salt.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600754349747343362

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600841890105937920

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600801140433911808

As per the last tweet, an ex French naval officer was responsible for the leaks some years ago . Perhaps le francais here would know more about it as none of the Indian sources carried this part of the story.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

Every now & then the breast beating begins. But some interesting revelations here. Having said that, there's no corroborative evidence for it so take it with a pinch of salt.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600754349747343362

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600841890105937920

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600801140433911808

As per the last tweet, an ex French naval officer was responsible for the leaks some years ago . Perhaps le francais here would know more about it as none of the Indian sources carried this part of the story.

636 is cheap. That's it. Its not exactly effective even in comparison to our Scorpene without modern Torpedo or AIP.

And it won't come quickly too.

 

[randomradio]

636 is cheap. That's it. Its not exactly effective even in comparison to our Scorpene without modern Torpedo or AIP.

And it won't come quickly too.

There is no need for new Scorpenes. Data leak did nothing here, it's just an old design. The Kilos are an option in the form of secondhand subs, the Russians are offering 3, maybe more if we need it. They can be put to use until 2040. A lot of the new tech gone into Kilo upgrades are more advanced than what's on the Scorpene.

There's a plan to produce 12 indigenous SSKs anyway, which can replace these upgraded Kilos after 2035. The IN will soon hand over a Kilo to test DRDO's new propulsion tech, it will be dry-docked.

 

[Amarante]

(…)
As per the last tweet, an ex French naval officer was responsible for the leaks some years ago . Perhaps le francais here would know more about it as none of the Indian sources carried this part of the story.

(l’usinenouvelle (fr), dec.29-2016 ):

(…) The 68-year-old suspect is a former French naval engineer who worked in French Polynesia in the early 1970s before working for Thomson-CSF (formerly Thales) until the early 2000s, the Australian newspaper said.

The data was allegedly stolen from DCNS and copied without authorisation onto a USB stick in 2011 before being taken to Malaysia. Confined to the outside of the building following a dispute with his employer, a DCNS subcontractor, the suspect is said to have lost control of his USB stick inside the premises in 2013, The Australian reports.

The DCNS subcontractor, believing that the memory stick contained data on training routines and not confidential information on the Scorpene's military equipment, sent the stick to an Australian naval officer, Rex Patrick. The officer approached the Department of Defence in 2013 to inform them of the existence of the data. But the department has not been able to trace the data back to the leaker, The Australian said.

Because of Australia's contract with DCNS for 12 submarines, Rex Patrick chose to reveal the leaked data to the Australian press in the summer of 2016 in the hope that a better security protocol would be put in place, The Australian says. And the Australian government has indeed tightened security requirements around the manufacture of submarines by DCNS in order to avoid similar leaks, the daily said. (…) /deepl

otho, (asianetnews.newsable, mar.31-2018):
(…) "The information released by The Australian does not make the navy sitting ducks, particularly since much of it in broad terms could be assessed even by the experts working for defence publications such as Jane's"

"Generic data and performance capabilities are known or can be assessed in broad terms by anyone. and so is the information related to sensors, weapons, control systems, propulsion and power generation"

Vice Admiral Ganesh (Retd)​

“Amid all the hullabaloo, a consensus among experts and submarine veterans is that the leak did not affect Project-75 in any significant way”.

… the leak of information related to the Scorpene submarine [is] being viewed "very seriously", but it is "not a matter of much worry."

Navy Chief Admiral Sunil Lanba (Retd)​

… the leak was most likely “not a big worry” because the data did not contain weapons system details.

Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar (Retd)​

 

[_Anonymous_]

636 is cheap. That's it. Its not exactly effective even in comparison to our Scorpene without modern Torpedo or AIP.

And it won't come quickly too.

We've had this conversation a few months ago either on this very thread or some other . The kilos being offered were inspected by Indonesia some time back & were reportedly in a pathetic shape. That prompted them to approach DSME . You know the rest.

The objective behind posting those tweets I did was to highlight tweets no 4 & 6 that is to say the information about the Scorpene leaks .

Incidentally S Jha is going live with his IAH at 8:30 tonight in case you're interested . The last one was kept Pvt for his only fans base .