Beating the Indian Navy without going broke

[advaidhya]

The above part I am not very sure of.

India would not just block but attack any ship or supply vehicle that assists the country which is at war with India. This is plain and clear. I don't understand why would you even think that India will be stupid and simply sit while China can do anything it wants? If it is USA instead of China, even then it is the same. Whoever is with the enemy is an enemy and there is no question of showing leniency and making wild assumptions.

All the operations you are mentioning were political failures not military failures.
In 1965 India could not come more than 4-5 Km inside Lahore or Sialkot Borders. Pakistan went 300 Km inside Rajistan borders.
But Ayub Khan agreed with Shastri to just go back to Pre-war positions.
Kargil the same. Musharraf and his non regular "Northern light infantry" or NLI took up heoights of Kargil and stayed there. Indian army and Ir force both had to be sent to try and defeat them and India even lost one or two air force jets. But the men maintained their positions until Nawaz Sharif was summoned by Clinton and ordered to ask Military to just go back. It was on return journey when our troops left the safety of the peaks that they were killed and taken POW. Even today at least one peak from the era is still under Pakistan custody.

I am not saying that the political debacle wont happen again, and it can happen, but thread is about military strategy only, not politics.

If I were in Indian diplomacy, I would be focusing on getting a defence pact with USA. Incase of any Chinese hostilities, US will declare war on China. Given the buffoon in the office, it may just be possible. These kind of pacts are usually secret. Basically do an Indra Gandhi over Chinese all over again.

Getting inside desert areas is not really hard. What stopped Pakistan from coming to Punjab? The Indian land is non-living and does not fight anyone who comes. It is the people who fight. So, if you push in sparsely populated areas, there is very little anyone can do

 

[Shajida Khan]

I am not saying that the political debacle wont happen again, and it can happen, but thread is about military strategy only, not politics.

Its a misunderstanding. Pakistan didn't win wars and let go of gains. Pakistan won battles --again India did as well-- and lost/drew wars. Independent sources often report that in '65 Pakistan controlled mostly barren desert land in Raan of Kutch while India controlled fertile parts of Punjab.

Moreover, Pakistan had a massive technology advantage over India in '65 battles. Patton tank was generations ahead of centurian and shermons that India operated. Pakistan's Saber and Starfighters again were almost alien technology for IAF which were dragging its feet with like of Gnats. Infact you had the only true supersonic jet in the subcontinent at that point of time. No wonder battle odds were in your favor!

That has completely changed. You have JF-17s as your mainline fighters and no longer possess an edge over Su-30s of IAF. JF-17 is short legged to boot and cannot effectively attack inside Indian borders. Not to mention, your AA is comprised of pure Chinese hardware and is a generation older than what India is fielding and plans to acquire. Infact the monoculture of Chinese hardware that you are currently building is perfect for India. It ensure that counters that India inducts works on both the fronts. Keeping the cost low.

 

[randomradio]

I dont know about now, but i regularly met PAF F-16 pilots back in 1995-96 and back then they had something called the "Swedish ideology".
They had plenty of fake inflatable tanks and planes and fake targets for incoming IAF onslaught.
The plan was to let the iAF go as deep inside Pakistan as they wanted and let them bomb the alleged fleets of PAF jets on the ground and annihilate (Inflatable) armoured divisions on ground. All this time pAF jets either won't fly or fly away from IAF and Pakistan will only fire anti aircraft assets.
Once IAF is low on fuel and on return journey, the PAF will take on a few not all of IAF jests in a "Pack hunting " mode and down a few and then disappear. The plan was to keep IAF busy and encourage them to fly more so that their jets start getting grounded for maintenance and hence lower in numbers and then PAF start attacking Indian targets.
Meanwhile PAF would also maintain reserve air power on remote places from where the jets could takeoff from Public highways and land back there after missions.
So there are plans in place... while we let India gloat in their delusions of supremacy, we got it all covered, or much of it .

Sweden is actually far away from Russia if you are comparing the distance between India and Pakistan. Most of the action is less than 200Km away from most Indian bases facing Pakistan.

large twin engine jets need longer runways and cannot land on Public highways. Indian Sukhoi only do Touch and go on Public highways and have never landed on one. All PAF jets can land and takeoff from Public highways and get airborne soon, while Twin engine jets need far more maintinance and longer time.

The Flankers have excellent short-field performance. PAF doesn't want heavy twin engine jets due to costs.

 

[randomradio]

Thats what I found most laughable in this article. Sure you can counter an enemy with better equipment, but it does not come cheap. Especially if you are not building it yourself.

It's not a question of money alone. They do not have the R&D capability for it.

 

[Shajida Khan]

large twin engine jets need longer runways and cannot land on Public highways. Indian Sukhoi only do Touch and go on Public highways and have never landed on one. All PAF jets can land and takeoff from Public highways and get airborne soon, while Twin engine jets need far more maintinance and longer time.

Yes, but larger twin engine jets also have more range and can carry more weapons load. Meaning, India can hit you from bases deep inside Indian territory, away from your jets range and even from your cruise missile's range.

 

[Shajida Khan]

So the discussion has come down to actually building a navy.

Okay I didn't read that part of the post. Lets see....

SSNs, SSBNs, AIP Subs, Destroyers, Petrol boats, Anti-submarine helis, ASBMs, Super-sonic Cruise AShM and that too in numbers. Essentially the author is asking for a Japanese or British navy for Pakistan and then some-more. Sure it can counter India's build up. Why not? Acquire British Navy in numbers and counter Indian Navy. It can surely be done! It seems the entire article has been written from 'Anti-Carrier' point of view. Carriers being the most visible naval assets. Only thing is that this entire build up is not going to be exactly cheap. I can bet it will be around 40-50 billion dollars. Given Pakistan's GDP is some 300 billion dollars, we are looking at 15-20 years before this build up is done. Sure, Indian navy will be sitting idle and not doing anything.

 

[randomradio]

If you want to prepare for decisive victory, you have to account for the worst case scenario. If we go about with famous assumptions like the PA does, we will have similar results.

Most definitely. I most definitely want to see missiles like the AD-1 and 2 to be installed on larger ships in time in order to counter BMs and develop ASAT capability.

While preparing for every threat is good, the threats need to be realistic as well. For example, the Chinese ASBM capability is built on a foundation of space-based surveillance capability that doesn't exist even in India, like the Gaofen and Jilin series of satellites. And if the Chinese hand over ASBMs to Pakistan, the Pakistanis will need to utilise the Chinese surveillance capability, which will mean India will be forced to attack Chinese satellites, which would mean bringing the Chinese into the war. That goes completely against Chinese non-interventionist policy.

The Chinese need their ASBM capability to protect themselves, not protect Pakistan against a lone Indian carrier and have their multi-billion dollar system compromised in such an apparently useless way. The same with your assertion that the Chinese can transfer their destroyers to PN. The PN neither has the money nor the capability to operate destroyers and other bigger ships.

Also the Chinese understand that any Pakistani victory will have to be a ground victory. So the main focus will be towards developing Pakistan's army and air force. The PN could roll over and die and the Chinese wouldn't care, neither will the PA in fact. Even in this case, the Chinese would only hand over their mid level tech and not their high tech stuff. You can see that easily based on what they export to Pakistan, it's mostly old stuff that richer militaries wouldn't even touch. That's primarily the reason why the Pakistanis want to begin focusing on indigenisation.

 

[Shajida Khan]

Also the Chinese understand that any Pakistani victory will have to be a ground victory. So the main focus will be towards developing Pakistan's army and air force. The PN could roll over and die and the Chinese wouldn't care, neither will the PA in fact. Even in this case, the Chinese would only hand over their mid level tech and not their high tech stuff. You can see that easily based on what they export to Pakistan, it's mostly old stuff that richer militaries wouldn't even touch. That's primarily the reason why the Pakistanis want to begin focusing on indigenisation.

Well, I get Milspec's point. Its not about how China will do but what if they do it.

I will say this. The best way to counter Pakistan in that case is to go for a decapitation strike with 50-60 nukes in one shot and be ready to exchange few of Indian cities. After 50-60 nukes, Pakistan will never be a problem again. China will know and understand that you mean business and will not like you to nuke its Beijing and Shenghais so will simply distance itself from you and Pakistan. Ofcourse you will become a global boogeyman and will has massive sanctions for the time being forced upon you but you will get rid of the constant monkey on your back, for good. I guess the rebuild will be hard but still will be possible.

 

[RATHORE]

China can proliferate but that will be considered as an act of war. Moreover, China needs petroleum from Arabian sea only. So, India has a leverage there. If India considers proliferation as an act of war and attacks the oil tankers towards China, Chinese economy will face hardship. You are not considering that India may start a war to ensure technology does not reach its enemy by proliferation. Entire middle east and global economy will be in a mess.

China can do only so much and not beyond a point. Selling a few equipment here and there is OK but giving away blueprint of weapons and providing indigenous manufacturing in other countries will be no different than directly waging war. Why would Chinese want that scenario? Chinese are not crazed people who are unreasonable. In the worst case scenario, it will be all out war with China, Pakistan and other countries that support them but not anything better. Containing someone by proliferation is not containing but an act of war itself

All of this assumes that India has the guts to do such a thing. I unfrotunately do not consider that a given. India did nothing when China turned Pakistan into a nuclear and ballistic missile power. Sure you can say that it was a different time, but even now, I wouldn't take it for granted that India would do anything; especially when they fail to even take basic counter-steps like passing on ballistic missile technology to Vietnam in a tit-for-tat.

 

[RATHORE]

Sweden is actually far away from Russia if you are comparing the distance between India and Pakistan. Most of the action is less than 200Km away from most Indian bases facing Pakistan.



The Flankers have excellent short-field performance. PAF doesn't want heavy twin engine jets due to costs.

They would have loved to have twin engine fighters if they could afford them, I don't think it was that long ago that rumors were popping up of Pakistan going to Austria with a begging bowl for their used Eurofighters which they don't use/can't afford anymore. Since we haven't heard anything about it since then, I imagine even those might have proven too expensive.

Not surprising, considering the fact that their Prime Minister has started a mass, global begging campaign just to build a dam; and they are bound to end up at the IMF with outstretched hands soon enough.

 

[randomradio]

Well, I get Milspec's point. Its not about how China will do but what if they do it.

The Chinese will fight India to the last Pakistani. They will never do anything that will compromise their own safety.

We need the capability to counter Chinese ASBMs anyway. So, when it comes to the threat of ASBMs, it's simple, whatever works against the Chinese will work against Pakistan. The same if China transfers their bigger ships over to Pakistan. As long as our navy is capable of fighting the PLAN, changing PLAN flags to PN flags is not going to affect anything.

I will say this. The best way to counter Pakistan in that case is to go for a decapitation strike with 50-60 nukes in one shot and be ready to exchange few of Indian cities. After 50-60 nukes, Pakistan will never be a problem again. China will know and understand that you mean business and will not like you to nuke its Beijing and Shenghais so will simply distance itself from you and Pakistan. Ofcourse you will become a global boogeyman and will has massive sanctions for the time being forced upon you but you will get rid of the constant monkey on your back, for good. I guess the rebuild will be hard but still will be possible.

We will not unilaterally use nukes first. We will have to be forced to use nukes, but our objective will be a first strike. And surviving the enemy's first strike is also our core objective, that's why the BMD.

The Pakistanis were suckered into believing that BMD is not possible when we are talking about short and medium range BMs since the time to react to an attack is too small to employ adequate countermeasures, 5 to 15 minutes. It's true from a certain PoV, ie, if your BMD system is manned. Which means you need your men to be constantly on the alert, which is unrealistic. So what we have done is make our BMD fully unmanned. So even if our boys are sleeping at the controls, the BMD system is working 24/7. Our BMD can react from first detection to launching an interceptor in less than 1 minute, without human input. This will give us a massive advantage when it comes to surviving the first strike.

 

[RATHORE]

Its a misunderstanding. Pakistan didn't win wars and let go of gains. Pakistan won battles --again India did as well-- and lost/drew wars. Independent sources often report that in '65 Pakistan controlled mostly barren desert land in Raan of Kutch while India controlled fertile parts of Punjab.

Moreover, Pakistan had a massive technology advantage over India in '65 battles. Patton tank was generations ahead of centurian and shermons that India operated. Pakistan's Saber and Starfighters again were almost alien technology for IAF which were dragging its feet with like of Gnats. Infact you had the only true supersonic jet in the subcontinent at that point of time. No wonder battle odds were in your favor!

That has completely changed. You have JF-17s as your mainline fighters and no longer possess an edge over Su-30s of IAF. JF-17 is short legged to boot and cannot effectively attack inside Indian borders. Not to mention, your AA is comprised of pure Chinese hardware and is a generation older than what India is fielding and plans to acquire. Infact the monoculture of Chinese hardware that you are currently building is perfect for India. It ensure that counters that India inducts works on both the fronts. Keeping the cost low.

Their frontline fighters, the absolute pride and joy of their whole Air Force, are the 30-40 antiquated F-16 A/B's which they are struggling to upgrade or buy spares for as the US tightens the screws.

Between the findings of Ex. Gagan Shakti, our current force mix, our near future inductions (few more Sukhois, Tejas, Rafales), and the purchase & induction of the S-400's; the stage is being set in such a way that the next time we go to war with Pakistan, their Air Force likely won't even be a factor in the conflict.

 

[randomradio]

They would have loved to have twin engine fighters if they could afford them, I don't think it was that long ago that rumors were popping up of Pakistan going to Austria with a begging bowl for their used Eurofighters which they don't use/can't afford anymore. Since we haven't heard anything about it since then, I imagine even those might have proven too expensive.

Yep, PAF would definitely buy twin engine jets if they could afford them.

Not surprising, considering the fact that their Prime Minister has started a mass, global begging campaign just to build a dam; and they are bound to end up at the IMF with outstretched hands soon enough.

The dam is located in PoK. It will be ironic if Pak builds the dam with great difficulty, and then we end up conquering PoK in a war over the next 10-20 years.

 

[safriz]

Indian forces indeed took back Tiger hill, the biggest threat to Indian connectivity to Kashmir. I remember a picture of the same being posted a lot in BR and other forums in such kind of threads.

In the end, all conflicts are for a purpose. Pakistan has a huge history of failing to meet those goals. All so called battles victories end-up in smoke. BTW, this does not mean India didn't have victories. They did, and quite a few of them. But Pakistan's record is full of few Battle victories and lack of any war victories. India has atleast twice won the war against Pakistan. '71 and Operation Meghdoot when they captured Siachen Glacier.

 

[safriz]

@safriz from Military standpoint these gentlemen would disagree with your take too.

Air Chief Marshal: Asghar Khan

Air Chief Marshal: Nur Khan

Brig (Retd) Saeed Ismat

Major (Retd.) Agha Humayun Amin

Col. S.G Mehd (SSG Commander)







What do you have to say about 1965 war?



If you were to ask me this question when I was a young officer, my reply would have been quite different because I fought in that war, saw tactical action and in my perception we did well and beat back the aggressor and won the war. As one matures, learns and has the ability to analyze, one begins to differentiate between myth and reality, of course, with the advantage of the hindsight. 1965 War manifested the shortsightedness and immaturity of our political and military leadership. Pakistan started with ‘Operation Gibraltar’ in Kashmir. We have been made to think it was very bold and imaginative in conception and prepared by a great General. In my opinion it was bold, unimaginative, unpracticable plan. It was not in harmony with prevailing environment in Indian Held Kashmir. It was based on dangerous assumptions and its time frame was unrealistic and quixotic. The plan reflected strategic naivety and immaturity. To top it all the preparation and subsequently the execution displayed lack of professionalism. Since it lacked politico-strategic framework and vision it placed Pakistan in a very precarious position. On its failure, ‘Operation Grandslam’ was launched, which did make military sense since it enjoyed the superiority of strategic orientation. The capture of objective (Akhnur Bridges) would sever the Indian lines of communication in Kashmir and force them to retract. This operation was to suffer a major setback when the advance was halted because of an explainable change of command in the middle of the battle. Indians were so threatened by this move that they attacked with full might across the international border threatening Lahore and Sialkot. Our leaders panicked, ‘Operation Grandslam’ was brought to a grinding halt. Later, a brilliantly conceived Riposte from Khem Karan failed because a correct mix of units was not mustered to achieve a superior relative strength situation at the right time at the right place. We won a lot of battles but lost the war as we failed to attain the political aim of defreezing and the ultimate liberation of the Kashmir. Ayub Khan thus ruined the national economy by one wrong decision that had taken him several years to build.



Brig (Retd) Saeed Ismat, SJ



Cover Story



This in short is Nur Khan’s version of 1965 war, which he calls an unnecessary war and says that President Ayub for whom he has the greatest regard should have held his senior generals accountable for the debacle and himself resigned.



This would have held the hands of the adventurers who followed Gen Ayub. Since the 1965 war was based on a big lie and was presented to the nation a great victory, the Army came to believe its own fiction and has used since, Ayub as its role model and therefore has continued to fight unwanted wars — the 1971 war and the Kargil fiasco in 1999, he said.



In each of the subsequent wars we have committed the same mistakes that we committed in 1965.



Air Marshal Khan demanded that a truth commission formed to find out why we failed in all our military adventures. It is not punishment of the failed leadership that should be the aim of the commission but sifting of facts from fiction and laying bare the follies and foibles of the irresponsible leaders in matters with grave implications for the nation. It should also point out the irregularities committed in training and promotions in the defence forces in the past so that it is not repeated in future





Nur Khan reminisces ’65 war - Newspaper - DAWN.COM





Excerpt From the conclusion:

Major (Retd.) Agha Humayun Amin:

Ambition, lust for glory etc are perfectly reasonable aspirations where they are matched with military talent pertaining to operational strategy, low intensity operations, strategic insight or statesmanship! All these were sadly lacking at all levels, except unit level bravery and enthusiasm! Gibraltar failed because of pure and unadulterated military incompetence and Akhtar Malik bears the principle responsibility for Gibraltar! The Grand Slam story was different!It wasnot a case ofbalanced distribution of lack of talent at all levels that resulted in the failure of Grand Slam! The principle reason why Grand Slam failed was delay in initial launching and change of command!





Grand Slam - A Battle of Lost Opportunities









this is your Air Chief Marshal Asghar Khan.

Some of Col. S.G Mehdi wisdom.



Conclusion by SSG’s commander: “Had our Government initiated a probe into concept, conduct and consequences of 1965 War’, and raised the curtain from the acts of gross omission or that of the criminal commission, the ignominy of 1971 could have been avoided. “



1965 War — Some Harsh Realities | Ehtisham Siddiqui

Most of these people had personal grudges against Field Marshal Ayub Khan and hence their opinion is maligned if not wrong.
Pakistan only suported kashmiri freedom fighters in 1965 , something Pakistan is doing to this date wnd will continue, but Inda in 1965 opened 6-7 battle fronts simultaneously and Pakistan fought back on all those battle fronts.
Plus the people of Pakistan fought alonside the Army.
On 8th September 1965 India attacked Tharparker and Pakistan rmy was already busy at Lahore , Sialkot and other sectors far off from Tharparker.
When India attacked, 50,000 Locals picked up weapons and repelled Indian attack.
In case of an all out Indian atack, will that public participation happen again? Yes it will if needed.
So in any war on main land Pakistan, India will not just fight Pakistan army but also millions of armed and well versed with weapons, civilians of Pakistan.

 

[Parthu]

The turning point in foreseeable future is going to be when the Indian Navy acquires a fleet of SSNs (first boat likely in next 8 years). At that point, Pak Navy's undersea combatants (including the yet-to-come S-26 AIP SSK and S-30 conventional SSB) will become largely irrelevant. The PN surface capability already became irrelevant vis-a-vis IN about 10 years ago.

A full fleet of 6-12 SSNs will ensure sufficient capability against any possible PLAN incursion (with or without Chinese CBG) in IOR.

But most interesting will be the equation that will develop once IN SSNs start stalking the PN SSBs. I don't think there was ever any instance in history where any nation enjoyed such an advantage in having a knife to the throat of the enemy's second-strike capability so well as what the IN SSNs can achieve against the conventional Pak ballistic missile subs. There is no way those conventional SSBs can hide from an SSN, or outrun it. I doubt it will even be a real second-strike capability at that point - when the enemy is so easily capable of taking them out in a first strike.

The biggest threat PN has to plan for is not the carriers, its the SSNs. But I guess that's the beauty of having a huge ship...everyone is focused on it while the real threat sneaks up from underwater for the silent kill. The PN seems tempted to repeat the mistake they made back in 1971 trying to sink INS Vikrant. At least back then PN was in possession of fairly more advanced submarines that what India had...but in the future we're looking at, PN's conventional subsurface fleet is set to be in an unenviable position vis-a-vis India's nuclear fleet. They are going to have a serious disadvantage out of the box...and if they try to chase after the highly visible bait (carrier) while ignoring the real threat (SSN), its going to end much worse for them than any encounter in past.

 

[randomradio]

The turning point in foreseeable future is going to be when the Indian Navy acquires a fleet of SSNs (first boat likely in next 8 years). At that point, Pak Navy's undersea combatants (including the yet-to-come S-26 AIP SSK and S-30 conventional SSB) will become largely irrelevant. The PN surface capability already became irrelevant vis-a-vis IN about 10 years ago.

A full fleet of 6-12 SSNs will ensure sufficient capability against any possible PLAN incursion (with or without Chinese CBG) in IOR.

But most interesting will be the equation that will develop once IN SSNs start stalking the PN SSBs. I don't think there was ever any instance in history where any nation enjoyed such an advantage in having a knife to the throat of the enemy's second-strike capability so well as what the IN SSNs can achieve against the conventional Pak ballistic missile subs. There is no way those conventional SSBs can hide from an SSN, or outrun it. I doubt it will even be a real second-strike capability at that point - when the enemy is so easily capable of taking them out in a first strike.

The biggest threat PN has to plan for is not the carriers, its the SSNs. But I guess that's the beauty of having a huge ship...everyone is focused on it while the real threat sneaks up from underwater for the silent kill. The PN seems tempted to repeat the mistake they made back in 1971 trying to sink INS Vikrant. At least back then PN was in possession of fairly more advanced submarines that what India had...but in the future we're looking at, PN's conventional subsurface fleet is set to be in an unenviable position vis-a-vis India's nuclear fleet. They are going to have a serious disadvantage out of the box...and if they try to chase after the highly visible bait (carrier) while ignoring the real threat (SSN), its going to end much worse for them than any encounter in past.

Let's not count our chickens before they hatch. The SSNs are a long way away.

 

[Parthu]

Let's not count our chickens before they hatch. The SSNs are a long way away.

Agreed...but something has to give when your perceived enemy is hatching a chicken egg and you're sitting on an ostrich egg!

 

[safriz]

The turning point in foreseeable future is going to be when the Indian Navy acquires a fleet of SSNs (first boat likely in next 8 years). At that point, Pak Navy's undersea combatants (including the yet-to-come S-26 AIP SSK and S-30 conventional SSB) will become largely irrelevant. The PN surface capability already became irrelevant vis-a-vis IN about 10 years ago.

A full fleet of 6-12 SSNs will ensure sufficient capability against any possible PLAN incursion (with or without Chinese CBG) in IOR.

But most interesting will be the equation that will develop once IN SSNs start stalking the PN SSBs. I don't think there was ever any instance in history where any nation enjoyed such an advantage in having a knife to the throat of the enemy's second-strike capability so well as what the IN SSNs can achieve against the conventional Pak ballistic missile subs. There is no way those conventional SSBs can hide from an SSN, or outrun it. I doubt it will even be a real second-strike capability at that point - when the enemy is so easily capable of taking them out in a first strike.

The biggest threat PN has to plan for is not the carriers, its the SSNs. But I guess that's the beauty of having a huge ship...everyone is focused on it while the real threat sneaks up from underwater for the silent kill. The PN seems tempted to repeat the mistake they made back in 1971 trying to sink INS Vikrant. At least back then PN was in possession of fairly more advanced submarines that what India had...but in the future we're looking at, PN's conventional subsurface fleet is set to be in an unenviable position vis-a-vis India's nuclear fleet. They are going to have a serious disadvantage out of the box...and if they try to chase after the highly visible bait (carrier) while ignoring the real threat (SSN), its going to end much worse for them than any encounter in past.

Ahem ...Ahem... We detected, tracked and escorted away your quitest diesel electric Shishumar class submarine in November 2016.

 

[Parthu]

Ahem ...Ahem... We detected, tracked and escorted away your quitest diesel electric Shishumar class submarine in November 2016.

Your point is?