China’s “String of Pearls” and India's Two Front War Predicament : Analysis

String of pearls was Chinese strategy to encircle India by putting their strategic assets in the countries surrounding the India. To counter this strategy, India evolved a strategy called iron curtain. It was based on acquisition of naval assets and its deployment on various Indian ports to counter the possible Chinese aggression in future. However, this change totally in 2014 with arrival of Narendra Modi. Modi destroyed string of pearls by his act East policy. He Started it with the the visit of Bhutan followed by Bangladesh followed by srilanka by changing the government in Sri Lanka. It followed by improving the relation with Maldive and acquisition of Chabhar port in Iran. Now China is left with only one strategic ally called Pakistan. In addition, India has acquired some other ports and Icelands in Indian ocean to keep an eye on the any chinese movement in the Indian Ocean. Now it can be safely said that single string of pearls is by and large neutralized by the diplomacy of Narendra Modi. India is today much stronger in Indian ocean not only because of the deployment of deployment of naval assets but because of acquisition of vital ports of Indian Ocean. String of pearls is much lesser a challenge like it used to be in the early time of this decade.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: Gautam
I will write a elaborate article on what is diplomacy to counter string of pearls once I recovered from the injury.
 
Maldives Defence Chief calls for India as guarantor of peace and stability in the Indian Ocean Region

Male signals return to 'India First Policy' to undo the estrangement with New Delhi during the rule of former President Yameen

July 6, 2019 By Vishal Thapar, Photo(s): By PIB
1562516466251.png

Chief of Defence Forces, Maldives National Defence Force, Major General Abdulla Shamaal calling on Defence Minister Rajnath Singh in New Delhi on July 04

Identifying religious radicalisation and violent extremism as a "critical threat", the Chief of the Maldivian National Defence Force has called upon India to act as the guarantor of peace and stability in the Indian Ocean Region.

Major General Abdulla Shamaal acknowledged India's role as a regional security provider at a lecture in New Delhi on 'National Security Vulnerabilities: Issues for Small States", organised by the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses on July 5.

Drawing upon the precedence of India being the first responder to crises in the region, Major General Shamaal, Chief of Defence Forces of the Maldives, said India "should play a key role as a guarantor of peace and stability in the Indian Ocean Region". Regional and international stability was vital for smaller states, he pointed out.

The 'India First Policy' articulated by Major General Shamaal marks a dramatic return of Maldives to the India fold after five years of alienation during the rule of the former President Abdulla Yameen from 2013 to 2018. During Yameen's rule, the strategically located archipelago actively courted Chinese involvement in the region to dilute India's traditional influence. The defeat of Yameen by Mohammad Solih in the Presidential election of 2018 has ended the Maldivian drift

The 'India First Policy' articulated by Major General Shamaal marks a dramatic return of Maldives to the India fold after five years of alienation during the rule of the former President Abdulla Yameen from 2013 to 2018. During Yameen's rule, the strategically located archipelago actively courted Chinese involvement in the region to dilute India's traditional influence. The defeat of Yameen by Mohammad Solih in the Presidential election of 2018 has ended the Maldivian drift.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first foreign visit after his re-election was to Maldives last month, signifying the importance India attaches to ties with its neighbourhood. The visit was also a signal that that traditional warmth had returned to the ties after the five-year estrangement. During this visit, Modi was conferred with Maldives' highest honour for a foreign dignitary. He also addressed the Maldivian Parliament, during which he called upon all nations to unite against terror.

Echoing India's concerns, Major General Shamaal said radicalisation and violent extremism posed a "critical threat" to the states in the region. Citing the Easter attacks in Sri Lanka, he called for a multi-domain, multi-agency and multi-structural approach by various states to counter this menace. Countries in the region could draw many positive lessons from Indian culture and its democratic traditions, he said.

1562516508333.png

Major General Abdulla Shamaal inspecting a Guard of Honour on the South Block lawns in New Delhi on July 04

The General's reference to the tradition of India being the benevolent first responder to crises in the Maldives was a recapitulation of New Delhi's military intervention in 1988 codenamed Operation Cactus to undo a coup by Sri Lankan mercenaries and restore the Government of the then President Gayoom, the humanitarian assistance and disaster relief during the Tsunami of 2004 and the drinking water crisis of 2014. India has also supported Maldives in its transition to democracy and the strengthening of its institutions. It has also assisted actively in building the capacity of the Maldivian forces, and ensuring security for the archipelago.

While articulating the vulnerabilities of small states, he said lack of size and economic power has to be overcome by leveraging strategic significance, in an obvious reference to the key location of the Maldives, right in the middle of the world's busiest sea lanes.

The Military chief held that radicalisation and violent extremism posed a critical threat to the states in the region. Citing the Easter attacks in Sri Lanka, he said that it was a very complex and complicated issue which required multi-domain, multi-agency and multi-structural approach by various states to counter the menace, with a "whole of Government" and "Whole of Society" approach

Smaller states require a stable regional and international order to grow as they need to expand their influence in the international arena and also value their autonomy in decision making, he said, while calling for India to actively play the role of a stabiliser.

The Military chief held that radicalisation and violent extremism posed a critical threat to the states in the region. Citing the Easter attacks in Sri Lanka, he said that it was a very complex and complicated issue which required multi-domain, multi-agency and multi-structural approach by various states to counter the menace, with a "whole of Government" and "Whole of Society" approach.

Major General Shamaal said that the international environment today is extremely turbulent and volatile due to multi-layered complexities and uncertainties which often become unmanageable because of incomplete and ambiguous information sharing by states and security agencies. Therefore, there was a need for collective action, he emphasised, mirroring the sentiment expressed by Prime Minister Modi in Male in June.

The General also termed climate change as a serious thrreat to the Maldives. Rising water levels and temperatures are posing a critical threat to the marine ecology around Maldives as well as threatening to submerge many islands, he pointed out.

http://spsmai.com/news/?id=815&q=Ma...eace-and-stability-in-the-Indian-Ocean-Region
 
Good defence blog by an Australian. Gives undue credit to the Russians for providing assistance to India's domestic capabilities, otherwise doubts our capabilities. You know typical westerner. Otherwise a good read. Here he writes about underwater sensor setup by US-Japan-India to detect Chinese subs.

Submarine Matters: Part 1 - Undersea Webs - US-Japan SOSUS Mainly Against Chinese Navy

https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2016/05/part-2-undersea-webs-us-japan-se-asia.html

Submarine Matters: Japan-US-Indian IUSS cable link completed across Bay of Bengal

Submarine Matters: Indian Submarines Interacting with SOSUS to handle China

Submarine Matters: SOSUS network operation & processing issues - Bay of Bengal
 
Meanwhile in Nepal.............

Nepal stops Tibetan refugees from celebrating Dalai Lama's b’day - Times of India

I hear Xi is going to visit Nepal soon.

Nepal has already gone out of hand long time ago. The influence of Mao is very much there. The new trend to personify themselves as leftists or liberals is very new to the young generation and it's a fascinating trend. Because it deals with protest, anti govt, road marches, college drama on stage, etc.

This is why it attracts youth and Nepal is new to it.

Now important is how India is going to tackle this problem. How the young generation of Nepal can be rescued from the clutches of left. You need a very well plan for this, a staged maneuver to outcast the increasing fashion of becoming pseudo atheist.
 
Nepal has already gone out of hand long time ago. The influence of Mao is very much there. The new trend to personify themselves as leftists or liberals is very new to the young generation and it's a fascinating trend. Because it deals with protest, anti govt, road marches, college drama on stage, etc.

This is why it attracts youth and Nepal is new to it.
A global phenomenon this, not just Nepal. Among the "youth", leftism is the new fashion statement. Its there in India, US, Europe etc, pretty much everywhere in the world.

Now important is how India is going to tackle this problem. How the young generation of Nepal can be rescued from the clutches of left. You need a very well plan for this, a staged maneuver to outcast the increasing fashion of becoming pseudo atheist.
The Indian govt. can't fix this problem in India, how do you expect them to do anything in Nepal ?
 
The Indian govt. can't fix this problem in India, how do you expect them to do anything in Nepal ?

It is possible to fix situation in Nepal than in India. Because there people are not under Indian constitution but in India the people start quoting constitution. Of course due to our lousy and lazy officers deployed by RAW sniffing situation in Nepal were incompatible.

You just need to flush out few people there that's all and it is very much possible. Once they are gone the Nepal will come back to normalcy. But even Modi regime has not changed policy regarding taking hard steps and most of their hard steps are reserved for pre election tamasha. I am sorry but it is a fact!
 
India Set to Monitor Chinese Ships’ Movements from Mozambique

CC BY-SA 2.0 / Michael Scalet / The mighty Indian Navy!! [DSCF2721]
Military & Intelligence
21:04 26.07.2019
1564253534679.png


New Delhi (Sputnik): Further strengthening its dominant position in the Indian Ocean Region, India is set to sign a crucial agreement which will enable it to do round-the-clock monitoring of ships passing through the ocean's waters. The Indian Navy has already said that China's growing presence in the Indian Ocean is a major challenge for India.

Ahead of undertaking a three-day visit to the southern African country of Mozambique, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh on Friday said that the two countries will sign agreements in the fields of "exclusive economic zone surveillance, sharing of white shipping information and hydrography".

Under the white shipping information agreement, India can receive relevant advance information on the identity and movement of commercial non-military merchant vessels.

But this information will come in handy for tracking Chinese movements. In the past, China has claimed to have deployed its guided missile destroyers, submarines, and frigates for anti-piracy missions.

Nevertheless, the Indian Navy has been working with several countries in the region to achieve complete Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) by setting up or exchanging information through radar stations and surveillance systems in more than a dozen countries.


The two agreements will also strengthen the Indian Navy in terms of being able to secure the seas from pirates.

The visit, commencing on 28 July, will push India's SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) initiative, which has been initiated to lead maritime security and stability.

Singh has said that the signing of these agreements will further strengthen and expand bilateral defence cooperation with the southeast African country, bordered by the Indian Ocean to the east.

A day after a Chinese white paper on defence spoke of increasing the expenditure on their navy, Indian Navy Chief Admiral Karambir Singh said on Thursday China’s focus on its naval forces is “nothing new” and that the Indian Navy has to watch how it can match China's “intent”, given its limited budget and resources.


The Chinese white paper notes: "The PLA actively promotes international security and military cooperation and refines relevant mechanisms for protecting China’s overseas interests. To address deficiencies in overseas operations and support, it builds far seas forces, develops overseas logistical facilities, and enhances capabilities in accomplishing diversified military tasks".


The Indian Navy has already admitted on several occasions that China's growing presence in the northern part of the Indian Ocean is a major challenge for India, but New Delhi is keeping a close eye on the deployment of Chinese ships and submarines in the region.

India Set to Monitor Chinese Ships’ Movements from Mozambique
 
Three Military Logistics Support Agreements on the anvil

By Dinakar Peri
NEW DELHI,
July 28, 2019 01:29 IST
India-Russia

The Military Logistics Support Agreement with Russia is called Agreement on Reciprocal Logistics Support. Photo Credit: AFP

Talks on with Australia, Japan, Russia

India is looking to conclude three Military Logistics Support Agreements (MLSA) by the year-end, which will further enhance the operational reach of the military in the region. India has already signed such agreements with a few countries beginning with the U.S. The Navy has been the biggest beneficiary of them.

“Agreements with Australia, Japan and Russia are in advanced stages and are likely to be concluded by the year-end,” a senior defence official told The Hindu. The MLSA with Japan is called the Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) and with Russia, the Agreement on Reciprocal Logistics Support (ARLS).

The agreements with Australia and Russia will be broadly on the lines of the U.S. one, while the one with Japan is a broader defence cooperation agreement including logistics, a second official said.

Port access

India signed the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Understanding (LEMOA) with the U.S. in August 2016 after decade-long negotiations. Since then, it has concluded several such agreements with France, Oman, the Philippines and Singapore and gained access to the Sabang port in Indonesia.

Logistics agreements are administrative arrangements facilitating access to military facilities for exchange of fuel and provisions on mutual agreement, simplifying logistical support and increasing operational turnaround of the military away from India.

The ARLS with Russia is expected to be signed during the meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Vladimir Putin in September on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok in Russia. Last month, a delegation led by Additional Secretary Jiwesh Nandan visited Russia for finalising the agreement, the Defence Ministry said in its monthly report. Moscow had sent a draft agreement early last year and the MoD sent it to the Integrated Defence Staff and the three services for their comments in July.

Defence officials said the pact was long pending given the deep defence and strategic cooperation between the two countries for a long time. The Russian agreement gives India access to its facilities in the Arctic region which is seeing increased global activity as new shipping routes are opening up and resources are becoming available, a third official said.

Australia had submitted a draft MLSA soon after India signed the LEMOA, but New Delhi said at that time it would take up more logistics pacts after the first one was operationalised. In March, before the bilateral naval exercise AUSINDEX, Australian diplomatic sources made a strong pitch for a pact saying the argument for one is “compelling”. AUSINDEX saw participation of the largest Australian naval contingent to India with 1,000 personnel and assets.

“If we get the LSA it will go a long way in facilitating the future activity, the scale of the particular activity means that the paperwork involved is pretty huge,” diplomatic sources had said. Giving an instance of the limitations of not having such a pact, a diplomatic source had said that last year a ship-to-ship refuelling exercise between the two navies “ended out to be a dummy exercise as we couldn’t actually pass fuel as we did not have a logistics agreement”.

When contacted, a spokesperson from the Australian High Commission said last week, “Australia looks forward to achieving a MLSA with India which allows the Defence forces to use each other’s facilities and establishes easier procedures for access of supplies and services.”

India and Japan are moving fast on finalising the ACSA. A statement during the visit of Mr. Modi to Japan in October said the two leaders welcomed the joint exercise between each of the three services and “the commencement of negotiations on the ACSA, which will enhance the strategic depth of bilateral security and defence cooperation”.

Maritime cooperation has been a major focus area for the two countries and to enhance Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) in the Indo-Pacific region the two countries have already signed the implementing arrangement for deeper cooperation between the Navy and the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force (JMSDF).

The biggest beneficiary of the logistics pacts has been the Navy which interacts and exercises the most with foreign navies. When operating on the high seas, exercises or during humanitarian assistance missions fuel, food and other needs can be exchanged and settled through the established modalities later.

For instance, under LEMOA with the U.S., India has Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) which includes designating the points of contact for the U.S. military to work with, and a common account for payments. The SOPs are applicable to all three services with each service has a designated LEMOA office.


Three Military Logistics Support Agreements on the anvil

Good move. Don't know about the utility of the MLSA with Russia, we don't visit the Arctic very often, they don't visit the Indian ocean that often either.
And could we please get the Aussies in Malabar exercises the next time ? Its almost like Delhi is sulking, sulking isn't good policy.
 
A good article. A bit alarmist, but still well written.

Raja Mandala: Great game in Africa

Rajnath Singh’s visit to Mozambique offers an opportunity for Delhi to review the progress made in implementing the Indian Ocean strategy.

Written by C. Raja Mohan | Updated: July 30, 2019 4:53:10 am
modi-ccs.jpg

Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Amit Shah and Rajnath Singh. (Express file photo by Renuka Puri)

Defence minister Rajnath Singh’s visit to Mozambique this week is a good moment to reflect on the growing significance of the East African coast and the islands off it for the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific.

During his visit to Mozambique, Singh is expected to sign a number of agreements, including on hydrographic survey, sharing of white shipping information and the monitoring of its exclusive zone. He is also expected to deliver two fast patrol naval craft to the country as part of India’s expanding security cooperation with Mozambique.

It’s a pity that the defence minister’s itinerary does not include two nearby island nations, Comoros and Madagascar. A visit to these two islands might have given the minister a better strategic appreciation of Mozambique and its maritime neighbourhood.

Mozambique, Madagascar and Comoros together constitute the Mozambique Channel, a critical waterway in the Indian Ocean, that has shaped the strategic evolution of the Indian Ocean over the centuries. It is worth recalling that Vasco da Gama, in his search for a sea route to India, sailed through the Mozambique Channel in 1498 after coming round the southern tip of Africa. Since then, the Mozambique Channel had been a major choke point in the sea lines of communication from Europe to India and further east.

The control of the Mozambique Channel and the Western Indian Ocean islands became a major element of the extended rivalry between the major powers. European rivalries ebbed after the Napoleonic Wars and the Indian Ocean became a British Lake. After the opening of the Suez Canal in 1869 — which provided a shorter route from Europe to India — the salience of the South Western Indian Ocean began to diminish.

That might be changing as a number of factors draw international attention to the Mozambique Channel in the 21st century. The rise of China and East Asia as well as the slower emergence of India have deepened economic interdependence between Asia, the Middle East and Africa. The sea lines of communication between the east coast of Africa and the Far East have once again acquired some weight and importance.

As a rising China projects its naval power to the west of the Malacca Straits, competition with the established Indian Ocean powers like the US, UK, France and India has become inevitable. As old and new powers jockey for influence in the Indian Ocean littoral, every little island is becoming a contested terrain.

Access to critically located islands has always been an important part of the maritime jousting between great powers. In the Pacific, the contest is best understood as the competition to dominate the so-called island chains — as a springboard for either power projection or as a defensive line against potential naval aggression.

Both the American and Chinese strategic communities agree on the existence of three island chains running in concentric Pacific arcs around Asia. As great power rivalry returns to the Indian Ocean, the concept of island chains helps us understand the new regional dynamic. Three Indian Ocean island chains are coming into view.

One is the Andaman Island chain that bisects the Bay of Bengal. The Great Nicobar Island at the southern tip of the chain is well placed to dominate the western gates of the Malacca Straits that link the Indian and Pacific Oceans. A second chain runs from Gwadar in the northern Arabian sea along the Laccadives-Chagos ridge to Diego Garcia island that hosts a large American base.

A third island chain flows down from Djibouti in the Horn of Africa, down along the East African coast to the Mozambique channel through the island of Zanzibar. The islands in the South Western Indian Ocean, including Madagascar, Comoros, Seychelles and Mauritius, can be seen as part of this chain.

Along all the three island chains, India is scrambling to cope with the rising Chinese naval profile. As the home minister in the previous government, Singh was in charge of the Andaman chain and presided over the initial steps to modernise the governance of the islands and augment Indian naval presence there. But China’s deepening security ties with the littoral countries of the Bay of Bengal could begin to undermine India’s geographic advantages arising from the ownership of the Andamans.

On the second island chain, Delhi warily watches China’s expanding naval presence on Pakistan’s Arabian sea coast and is battling to retain India’s primacy in Sri Lanka and the Maldives. Meanwhile, US naval presence in Chagos is coming under stress as sovereignty over the archipelago has become the subject of an international dispute.

Once dominated by the European powers, the third island chain running along the east coast of Africa to the South Western Indian Ocean has seen the dramatic expansion of Chinese economic and strategic influence over the last decade. Besides the establishment of its first military base, China has an ambitious agenda of port construction, infrastructure development, and defence diplomacy.

During its first term, the Narendra Modi government had done much to put Africa and the third Indian Ocean island chain on Delhi’s mental map. This included decisions to enhance the diplomatic presence in Africa, initiate sustained high-level political contact and beef up security partnerships in the littoral of the South Western Indian Ocean.

But the scale of the challenge confronting India in the three island chains continues to expand, amidst China’s rapid strategic advance in the Indian Ocean.

Singh’s visit to Mozambique offers an opportunity for Delhi to review the progress made in implementing the Indian Ocean Strategy that PM Modi announced during his visit to some of the island nations in 2015. Such a review should also help reveal at least a few of the big obstacles — especially the internal ones — that continue to limit Delhi’s possibilities with the three Indian Ocean island chains.


(The writer is director, Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore and contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian Express)


Raja Mandala: Great game in Africa
 
  • Informative
Reactions: _Anonymous_