China’s “String of Pearls” and India's Two Front War Predicament : Analysis

India and Myanmar are sending a strong message to China – with a submarine

On its part, Myanmar will help India secure its own maritime interests in the Bay of Bengal region.

By Saurav Jha, Updated: 5 August, 2019 11:17 am IST
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A Kilo-class submarine of the Indian Navy (Representational image) | Wikimedia Commons

The Indian Navy’s decision to transfer one of its Kilo-class diesel-electric submarines, INS Sindhuvir, to Myanmar hopes to limit Chinese military influence and aid Myanmar in its emerging naval competition with Bangladesh. On its part, Myanmar helps India secure its own maritime interests in the Bay of Bengal region.

Myanmar Commander-in-Chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing had visited Delhi last month, during which India and Myanmar signed a defence cooperation agreement.

India’s willingness to transfer a frontline submarine when it is facing a shortage of such platforms reveals a desire on New Delhi’s part to consolidate the growing convergence in security interests with Myanmar. Gone is the time when there were fears of Myanmar offering a ‘second coast’ to China. Instead, the Indian Navy and the Myanmar Navy today conduct institutionalised joint patrols, and India is constructing connectivity corridors of its own in Myanmar in the form of the Kaladan project.

Myanmar’s diverse approach

Myanmar’s own quest to acquire an undersea capability was hastened after Bangladesh’s acquisition of two old Type 35G Ming-class submarines from China in 2017. Notably, Myanmar has not turned to China to fulfil this requirement. Over the years, Myanmar military officials have voiced concerns about the quality of Chinese equipment supplied to them. Moreover, with Bangladesh wholly dependent on Chinese support for its new naval teeth, Myanmar would ideally want to look elsewhere to get platforms that can give it an edge.

As such, Myanmar has adopted a more diverse approach than Bangladesh on sourcing equipment for its naval modernisation. Although Myanmar set up its key naval dockyard with Chinese input, it has turned to India and Russia for sensors and weapons to equip the warships being constructed there.

For instance, the Myanmar Navy’s latest warship design, the Kyan Sittha-class frigate, has a mix of equipment from India, China, and Russia. In particular, the Myanmar Navy has sought Indian ship-borne sensors with each ship of the Kyan Sittha-class outfitted with a DRDO-Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) HMS-X hull-mounted sonar and BEL supplied search radar. Last month, India also delivered the first batch of the indigenous ‘Shyena’ light torpedo, which will arm these ships, as part of a deal worth $37.9 million signed in 2017.

Myanmar’s China worry

The Indian Navy Kilo-class submarine due to be transferred to Myanmar is also likely to feature export versions of Indian naval sensors such as the SMX2, which is a submarine sonar suite developed for the international market by the Defence Research and Development Organisation. Although ostensibly being transferred for training purposes, the offensive potential of this submarine is undeniable, given that it is significantly more capable than the older Ming-class submarine, which the Bangladesh Navy operates.

On the other hand, Myanmar is extremely worried about the uninterrupted growth of the China-supported Wa and Kokang rebel groups that operate in its Shan state. In this context, Myanmar’s desire to rebalance its security architecture away from dependence on China is understandable. This would also be in keeping with its traditional policy of not becoming beholden to either China or India, while looking to extract benefits from either side.

An example of this is Myanmar’s renegotiation of the terms for the development of the Kyaukpyu Port project, which will now receive only a fraction of the initially proposed level of Chinese investment. Nonetheless, Kyaukpyu is indeed being constructed as part of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, which itself is part of the Belt and Road Initiative. And India cannot afford to let Kyaukpyu end up hosting a Chinese naval element given its location in the North-Eastern corner of Bay of Bengal.

India, the helping hand

India’s decision to transfer a submarine is, therefore, a sort of inducement to encourage Myanmar to stick to its time-tested policy, while also building on the extant synergy in security ties. What helps India’s cause is that Myanmar is once again at the receiving end of Western opprobrium over the Rohingya issue and is looking for support from Asian democracies such as India. New Delhi obliged by inviting Commander-in-Chief Hlaing to visit India right after the US announced a visa ban on him.

This commitment to continuity in ties is reflected in the new defence agreement, which, among other things, intends to ‘strengthen maritime security by joint surveillance and capacity building’. Clearly, the submarine transfer with its sensor fit would aid such an agenda.

Meanwhile, for Bangladesh, which vehemently opposed Hlaing’s visit on account of the Rohingya issue, the message from India is clear: ‘Perhaps you should consider diversifying your sources of supply as well’.


The author is a former consultant to FICCI’s International Division and Chief Editor of Delhi Defence Review. His Twitter handle is @SJha1618. Views are personal.

India and Myanmar are sending a strong message to China – with a submarine
 
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India challenging China’s influence in the South China Sea with outreach to Russia and other regional powers, analysts say

Published September 8, 2019
By admin SOURCE: SCMP


India is challenging Chinese influence in the South China Sea with its outreach to regional powers, including Russia, with which it has agreed to launch a maritime route that would partly go through the hotly contested waters, analysts said. Under the memorandum of understanding signed by India and Russia – two traditional security allies – during a regional economic forum this week, a new Indo-Pacific sea route will extend from the port city of Vladivostok, in Russia’s Far East, to Chennai, on the Bay of Bengal in eastern India.

The shipping route will partly traverse the South China Sea, the scene of numerous territorial disputes involving China and neighbouring countries over the years.

In addition to cooperating on the planned maritime route, India and Russia could ramp up their alliance in the military and technological spheres, according to a joint statement released at the economic forum in Vladivostok The partnership could “include establishing joint development and production of military equipment, spare parts and components as well as improving the system of after sales services”, the statement said.

The announcement of greater India-Russia military cooperation comes a year after New Delhi agreed to purchase Russian-made S-400 surface-to-air missile systems.

“This could signal that India’s cooperation with Russia is now coming to a substantial phase,” Hu Zhiyong, a research fellow at the Institute of International Relations of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview.“As Russia is seeking to expand its influence in Asia, [working with India] could, to a certain extent, counter China’s influence in Asia,” he said.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the planned maritime route fit under India’s “Act East” policy designed to deepen the South Asian nation’s political and economic ties with countries in Southeast Asia.

China’s growing military and economic prowess in the area worries the US and its regional allies, Japan and Australia.

As part of the cooperation pact, India will give Russia an “unprecedented” US$1 billion loan to develop its resource-rich far east. With over 55 per cent of its trade passing through the major waterways of Asia and the Malacca Strait, India – the world’s seventh largest economy and Asia’s third largest – has strategic stakes in the South China Sea, which has been the focus of numerous territorial disputes.

India signalled its renewed interest in the region this past week when a joint statement issued by India and Japan during Indian defence minister Rajnath Singh’s visit to Tokyo said the two sides had reviewed the situation in the South China Sea.

The countries also pledged to share military logistics for greater interoperability, according to the statement.

This week, officials with India’s ONGC Videsh Ltd, the overseas arm of Oil and Natural Gas Corp, told the Press Trust of India that the company sought another two-year extension to explore a Vietnamese oil block in the contested waters of the South China Sea. It would be the company’s sixth extension since setting a contract with Hanoi in 2006 to develop the 7,058 sq km (2,725 square mile) Block 128 in offshore Phu Khanh Basin, though little oil has been produced from the site.

China, with numerous contested claims in the region, has long rejected the notion of any foreign partnership developing oil and gas reserves in the disputed waters. It has occasionally deployed non-military vessels to disrupt foreign gas and oil exploration in the area. The latest escalation of tension in the region occurred this summer when Chinese and Vietnamese coastguard vessels engaged in a weeks-long stand-off near Vanguard Reef after a Chinese survey vessel sailed across two oil and gas blocks within 200 nautical miles of Vietnam.

Analysts said the move could have been part of a Beijing effort to block Vietnam’s joint gas and oil exploration activity with Russian energy firm Rosneft. As India’s trade with East Asia increases, Delhi may seek to bolster its presence in the region to reduce its dependence on major powers in the Western Pacific, analysts said.

“Delhi is uneasy of China’s new assertiveness and Beijing’s forceful affirmation of its territorial claims in the South China Sea,” said Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy, a visiting fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. “India’s growing interests in the South China Sea also manifest Delhi’s aspirations for domain awareness in all areas of maritime interests and to track potential developments that could affect India’s national interest.”

But observers said India would refrain from directly confronting Beijing over the South China Sea dispute. “Indian officials often highlight their country’s significant economic and trade interests in the South China Sea, for which access to the major waterways is a dire imperative,” said Abhijit Singh, head of the Maritime Policy Initiative think tank at the Observer Research Foundation in Delhi. “But beyond emphasising the need for compliance with international laws and the peaceful resolution of disputes, Indian officials aren’t willing to go much further.” Singh, a former Indian naval officer, said also that India and Beijing appear to share similar interpretations of the maritime laws that the US and its allies often cite to justify their unannounced warship patrols in the South China Sea.

“Notably, India differs with its many of its Pacific partners, especially the United States, in the interpretation of maritime law and the freedoms enjoyed by foreign warships in littoral spaces,” he said. “Delhi does not concur with US claims that its warships have a right to uninterrupted passage in another country’s coastal zones without prior notification and consent.

“New Delhi’s views on navigation in the South China Sea, in fact, seem closer to Beijing’s – especially on the matter of naval operations through a coastal state’s territorial waters or exclusive economic zones claiming innocent passage,” Singh said.

Hu said that Beijing, though unhappy with India’s joint oil project with Vietnam, would be unlikely to raise the South China Sea issue during President Xi Jinping’s upcoming visit to India in October.

“This could have potential impact on bilateral relations,” he said. “But the top priority for Beijing is to lure India to join the Belt and Road Initiative, so Beijing is unlikely to react much to India over the South China Sea issues.”

India challenging China’s influence in the South China Sea with outreach to Russia and other regional powers, analysts say – Indian Defence Research Wing .
 
"Quad" Of India, US, Japan, Australia Meets For Talks That Rattle China

US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo met with the foreign ministers of Japan, India and Australia on the sidelines of the United National General Assembly on Thursday.

All India | (c) 2019 Bloomberg | Jason Scott and Isabel Reynolds, Bloomberg | Updated: September 27, 2019 11:31 IST
0qh4k29o_quad-meet_625x300_27_September_19.jpg

US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo met with the foreign ministers of Japan, India and Australia.

Highlights
  1. US Secretary of State met foreign ministers of Japan, India and Australia
  2. They spoke on efforts to promote open, prosperous, inclusive Indo-Pacific
  3. Officials from the four countries are expected to meet next in Bangkok

A bid by four of the Indo-Pacific's largest democracies to band together as a counter to China's growing might has received increased impetus after the so-called Quad group met for the first time at the ministerial-level in New York.

US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo met with the foreign ministers of Japan, India and Australia on the sidelines of the United National General Assembly on Thursday, Australian Foreign Affairs Minister Marise Payne said in an emailed statement.

"The 'Quad' countries reaffirmed their commitment to shared values and cooperation on maritime security, infrastructure and connectivity in support of rules-based frameworks," Payne said. They discussed "efforts to maintain and promote an open, prosperous and inclusive Indo-Pacific," and agreed to hold regular ministerial meetings, she said.

The elevation of the discussion from official-level talks suggests the previously informal framework is being strengthened to improve intelligence-gathering and present a united front on regional security issues.

At the forefront of those issues is China, which has been increasing its economic influence, military might and diplomatic footprint in the Indo-Pacific. The concept of the Quad was first generated more than a decade ago during the George W Bush administration before it went into a hiatus. Its recent revival reflects growing unease over Chinese President Xi Jinping's more assertive foreign policy.

Along with Pompeo and Payne, Thursday's meeting was also attended by Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.

Maritime Security

A Japanese official, who asked not to be named in line with ministry practice, delivered a briefing with similar wording to Payne's statement earlier Thursday. However, the official added that the Quad's framework was not directed at any particular country, and said China was just one of several nations that were mentioned in a broad-ranging discussion.

High-level officials from the four countries are expected to meet next in Bangkok in November on the sidelines of the East Asian Summit, he said.

According to the Times of India on Saturday, S Jaishankar confirmed one of the topics up for discussion at the meeting would be Chinese oil prospecting in an exclusive economic zone of Vietnam. India had previously been the main holdout in furthering the group's agenda, amid concerns in New Delhi that it could worsen ties with Beijing.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said in November he sees the Quad as an "important sort of architecture in the region" that can cooperate economically, militarily and strategically.

"Headline-Grabbing Idea"

That puts him at odds with China, which has made clear its opposition to the Quad's "Indo-Pacific strategy." In March 2018, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the bloc was a "headline-grabbing idea."

"The four countries' official position is that it targets no one," Wang said. "I hope they mean what they say and their action will match their rhetoric. Nowadays, stoking a new Cold War is out of sync with the times and inciting bloc confrontation will find no market."

The US and Australia, concerned that China may be looking to establish a military base in the South Pacific that would extend its military reach toward the Americas, have been striving to build an alternative model to Beijing's state-directed lending for infrastructure projects. Those loans have raised concerns that poorer nations, saddled with debt, could be forced into increased reliance on Beijing.

The Quad members aim to finance infrastructure projects that are properly planned and financially sustainable -- although they don't have nearly as much cash to offer as Xi's Belt-and-Road Initiative, which Morgan Stanley says may total $1.3 trillion by 2027.

"Quad" Of India, US, Japan, Australia Meets For Talks That Rattle China
 
India is building refinery in Mongolia. That's one good step. Another would be to build Mongolia's IT and electronic infrastructure as well. It's the perfect place where India can jointly set up wafer Industry and cyber industry.
 
India is building refinery in Mongolia. That's one good step. Another would be to build Mongolia's IT and electronic infrastructure as well. It's the perfect place where India can jointly set up wafer Industry and cyber industry.

A lot is being done on the Mongolia relations.

India helps Mongolia for its first petrochemical refinery

2 min read . Updated: 08 Oct 2019, 08:50 AM IST Utpal Bhaskar
  • The Mongol refinery project is the largest project undertaken by India under Lines of Credit (LoC) programme
  • Once ready, the capacity of the refinery will be 1.5 million metric tons per annum
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Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan. (Reuters)

NEW DELHI : As part of its strategy of creating an energy security architecture for its partners, India’s oil minister Dharmendra Pradhan is in resource-rich Mongolia today for the commissioning of railway, road and power transmission infrastructure for the construction of country’s first petrochemical refinery.

The Mongol refinery project is the largest project undertaken by the government of India under its Lines of Credit (LoC) programme and is expected to cut some of Mongolia’s fuel import dependence. The petrochemical refinery to be built at an approximate cost of $1.25 billion utilising the $1.236 billion line of credit from India comes in the backdrop of China’ Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Once ready, the capacity of the refinery will be 1.5 million metric tons per annum, with diesel and gasoline as the primary products and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), fuel oil and jet fuel being produced as secondary products. State-run Engineers India Ltd (EIL) is the project management consultant for the development of the oil refinery—near Sainshand in southern Dornogovi province— expected to be completed by 2022.

This comes in the backdrop of Mongolia, which has large uranium deposits signing an agreement for civil nuclear cooperation with India in 2009 and China unfolding its BRI. New Delhi is opposed to the BRI, which seeks to invest about $8 trillion in infrastructure projects across Asia, Europe and Africa, as it says the initiative lures countries into debt traps and does not respect sovereignty or address environmental concerns.

“I will be joining the Prime Minister of Mongolia and six Cabinet Ministers at the ceremony for commissioning infrastructure facilities constructed as part of Oil Refinery Project," Dharmendra Pradhan said in a tweet.

India had taken up work for the construction of 27 kilometres of railway line, 17.5 kilometres of road and 19 kilometres of power transmission line to connect the refinery to existing networks in Mongolia, sandwiched between Russia and China.

Mongolia has its own oil fields producing enough crude for its requirements. However, almost all of its crude oil is exported and all of its finished petrochemical products are imported. The ground-breaking ceremony for the petrochemical plant took place in June 2018 during the visit of home minister Rajnath Singh.

New Delhi’s attempts to boost cooperation with Mongolia comes against the backdrop of China making inroads into South Asia—Sri Lanka and Nepal besides Myanmar—considered India’s periphery. The showpiece One Belt One Road (OBOR) infrastructure initiative, first unveiled by Chinese president Xi Jinping in 2013, aims to put billions of dollars in infrastructure projects, including railways, ports and power grids across Asia, Africa and Europe.

The LoC announced during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Ulan Bator in 2015 was enhanced during the state visit of the president of Mongolia to India last month. India, the first country outside the former Soviet bloc of nations to open diplomatic relations with Mongolia in 1955, also upgraded ties with Mongolia to a strategic partnership.

India helps Mongolia for its first petrochemical refinery
 
India offers $ 236 mn additional credit to Mongolia for building oil refinery: Pradhan

New Delhi | Updated on October 08, 2019

India has offered an additional $ 236 million credit to Mongolia for setting up a 1.5 million tonne per annum oil refinery in that country.

According to an official statement, Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Dharmendra Pradhan, who is visiting Mongolia, said that the 1.5 million tonne (MT) Oil Refinery Project with Indian assistance is a shining example of the two country's friendship. "Happy to share that on Mongolian request, India has announced an additional $ 236 million Line of Credit from India to Mongolia beyond the committed $ 1 billion,” he said.

Pradhan is in Mongolia to participate in a ceremony for commissioning the infrastructure facilities constructed to support the proposed oil refinery project . Prime Minister of Mongolia, Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh, six Cabinet Ministers and Governor of Dornogovi Province, T Enkhtuvshin also participated in the ceremony.

Pradhan said that the Engineers India Limited, a public sector undertaking of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas is providing project management consultancy services for this refinery project. On completion of the project, it will meet about three-fourth of Mongolian requirement of oil, the statement said.

Pradhan, accompanied by an official and business delegation, is on a 3-day visit to Mongolia, as a follow up of the State visit the President of Mongolia to India in September 2019.

India offers $ 236 mn additional credit to Mongolia for building oil refinery: Pradhan