Delhi, UP and Haryana : Political Discussions

Abhay rajput said:
It's look like AAP wins ... Exit polls are showing clear victory to AAP.. voter turnout was quite low compared to previous elections
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something is wrong. BJP vote share has increased compared to last time and AAP share has reduced compared to 2015. Congress has stayed as it was in 2015. Plus there has been low voting this time. Even Okhla, Jamia and Shaheen bagh have not gone beyong 62%. I will put the seats as 38-32 for AAP-BJP after the last minute surge. Otherwise till about 4pm, it was almost neck to neck.
 
vstol Jockey said:
something is wrong
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Could that 'something' be your calculation?

It's a tight slap to blackmail Shahji tried nothing else, had he cleared the snakes instead of feeding them, letting them grow, did his duty as Home Minister of India it would have established trust in public and he may not need 400 MP's going door to door to defeat an established fraud Kejriwal.

Been saving this from day one, never take voters for fool, said this when SP-BSP combined and were unstoppable after winning one or two by-elections, said this when their bloated ego gifted Maharashtra to Congress and cousins, been saying this for not clearing up Shaheen Bag instead of using it to get votes.
 
BlackOpsIndia said:
Could that 'something' be your calculation?

It's a tight slap to blackmail Shahji tried nothing else, had he cleared the snakes instead of feeding them, letting them grow, did his duty as Home Minister of India it would have established trust in public and he may not need 400 MP's going door to door to defeat an established fraud Kejriwal.

Been saving this from day one, never take voters for fool, said this when SP-BSP combined and were unstoppable after winning one or two by-elections, said this when their bloated ego gifted Maharashtra to Congress and cousins, been saying this for not clearing up Shaheen Bag instead of using it to get votes.
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The data for all pollsters who had done the exit poll is only upto 4pm. Between 4-6.30pm over 20% votes have been polled. who got them.
 
BlackOpsIndia said:
Could that 'something' be your calculation?

It's a tight slap to blackmail Shahji tried nothing else, had he cleared the snakes instead of feeding them, letting them grow, did his duty as Home Minister of India it would have established trust in public and he may not need 400 MP's going door to door to defeat an established fraud Kejriwal.

Been saving this from day one, never take voters for fool, said this when SP-BSP combined and were unstoppable after winning one or two by-elections, said this when their bloated ego gifted Maharashtra to Congress and cousins, been saying this for not clearing up Shaheen Bag instead of using it to get votes.
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Why Delhites make BJP win? There is too much of patriotic curry being served resulting in hot airs, stinking as well.
 
BlackOpsIndia said:
Could that 'something' be your calculation?

It's a tight slap to blackmail Shahji tried nothing else, had he cleared the snakes instead of feeding them, letting them grow, did his duty as Home Minister of India it would have established trust in public and he may not need 400 MP's going door to door to defeat an established fraud Kejriwal.

Been saving this from day one, never take voters for fool, said this when SP-BSP combined and were unstoppable after winning one or two by-elections, said this when their bloated ego gifted Maharashtra to Congress and cousins, been saying this for not clearing up Shaheen Bag instead of using it to get votes.
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There is a simple reason as to why shah didn't clear up shaheen bagh, cause that would've been political suicide. I think anyone with an iota of understanding of Indian politics would understand that. The protests were planned with very specific target in mind. They wanted shah to brutally clear them so that he can be portrayed as a hindu extremist. Moreover, along with his image inside India, his image outside India would've been tarnished too. Had he clamped down on the protestors, International media would've picked him apart. WaPo, NYT, BBC, etc, etc, would go for his throat showing him as a islamophobe. You know that, I know that, everyone knows that. I don't know why are you ranting against him. I would say he handled this very well and turned this to his advantage as much as he could. Whether his attempts to turn this into his favour brought some fruitful results, only the elections will tell.

Now, many would say that his international image has no bearing on this govt., but that untrue, it actually is. Cause had he cracked down on the protestors, modi's job of international diplomacy would've gotten much more difficult. There are a lot of things in diplomacy, that aam junta doesn't know about. The reason, we have come so far without much international condemnation is because of the support provided to us by the americans, russians, french and to some extent the Israelis. If this govt. shows its naked contempt of musliims openly, these nations will be forced to stop supporting India. Do you want India to be sanctioned, cause thats how you get India sanctioned. Those nutjobs in religious freedom watchdog something something organisation, are already calling for sanctions on India. This govt. needs to be very careful.
 
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Arvind said:
So how CAA is going to convert those mini pakistan into India again?
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Instead of being so cryptic, you must ask in detail what is your concern. Your questions are your answers as well. We did not have shaheen Bagh before CAA but we had mini Pakistans all across India. The problem of Shaheen Bagh is not just CAA but a series of things which went against Muslims as they were made to believe that they can have their way irrespective of what the constitution says. Starting from Triple Talak to 370 to RJB to CAA. These mini Pakistans were operating as termites till CAA and now they have come out in open with their agenda. An agenda which has been there from 622AD till date. Only a blind and a fool will fail to see this. Now ask me what is that agenda?
 
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vstol Jockey said:
I had posted that all minority areas had huge lines in the morning and forenoon hours. The BJP voters are lazy and come out only later in the day.
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I think AAP has bagged Delhi. That part becomes clear when one sees the percentage of votes cast. Rule of thumb for anti incumbency to effect change is percentage of votes cast ought to be 60% at the very minimum or more.That doesn't seem to be the case in Delhi.The only thing that remains to be seen is the margin of victory.

In many ways the current voting trends hark back to the Indira Gandhi era where people voted in a particular pattern for Central elections & differently for local elections be it state or ZP / Panchayat / Municipal elections.

How will this impact the anti CAA protests? This particular election result will be be painted as a referendum on the CAA by everybody from the opposition, the Muslims , the anti Modi press, etc although the impact of Shaheen Bagh & the anti CAA protests had little to do with voting patterns in Delhi. This election was contested on local issues & the people there voted on it. It's a welcome development although I'm not a fan of either AAP or Khujliwal's brand of politics.

Finally this serves as a wake up call to Modi but more so to the BJP & the RSS. Modi has to revive the economy from the slump it has sunk into ASAP. From the BJP's point of view they need to rear a new generation of leaders across the nation. There's only so much Brand Modi can deliver. Beyond a certain point, the law of diminishing returns will catch up. For the RSS, the same lessons hold true as that for the BJP.

Modi is 70 years old. He has more of a past than a future. A dedicated Cadre , a robust party & organizational machinery along with ideology & a perception of honesty & transparent governance can only deliver that much. Leadership is of essence here. Is it any wonder that inspite of having all this for decades in Kerala, the electoral returns are negligible.

Ditto for Bihar & WB, though in both these cases the BJP is faring much better as compared to Kerala but do you see a leader who can take over after Nitish Kumar exits the scene or someone who can take on Mamata? These are questions that the RSS / BJP must answer if they're serious about being a credible force across the country for the foreseeable future.
 
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_Anonymous_ said:
I think AAP has bagged Delhi. That part becomes clear when one sees the percentage of votes cast. Rule of thumb is for anti incumbency - percentage of votes cast ought to be 60% at the very minimum or more.That doesn't seem to be The case in Delhi.The only thing that remains to be seen is the margin of victory.

In many ways the current voting trends hark back to It's era where people voted in a particular pattern for Central elections & differently for local elections be it state or ZP / Panchayat / Municipal elections.

How will this impact the anti CAA protests? This particular election result will be be painted as a referendum on the CAA by everybody from the opposition, the Muslims , the anti Modi press, etc although the impact of Shaheen Bagh & the anti CAA protests had little to do with voting patterns in Delhi. This election was contested on local issues & the people there voted on it. It's a welcome development although I'm not a fan of either AAP or Khujliwal's brand of politics.

Finally this serves as a wake up call to Modi but more so to the BJP & the RSS. Modi has to revive the economy from the slump it has sunk into ASAP. From the BJP's point of view they need to rear a new generation of leaders across the nation. There's only so much Brand Modi can deliver. Beyond a certain point, the law of diminishing returns will catch up. For the RSS, the same lessons hold true as that for the BJP.

Modi is 70 years old. He has more of a past than a future. A dedicated Cadre , a robust party & organizational machinery along with ideology & a perception of honesty & transparent governance can only deliver that much. Leadership is of essence here. Is it any wonder that inspite of having all this for decades in Kerala, the electoral returns are negligible.

Ditto for Bihar & WB, though in both these cases the BJP is faring much better as compared to Kerala but do you see a leader who can take over after Nitish Kumar exits the scene or someone who can take on Mamata? These are questions that the RSS / BJP must answer if they're serious about being a credible force across the country for the foreseeable future.
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Falodi satta bazaar is predicting 32 seats for AAP, 31 for BJP and 7 for congress. They are predicting an AAP govt. I had posted earlier my numbers much before exit polls of 38 for AAP and 32 for BJP.
Till 3pm the vote percentage was 30% when 90% of data for exit polls is gathered. From 30% at 3pm it went to 57.5% by 6.30pm. This surge has the potential to completely change the exit polls.
ECI has released the final figures now and the final percentage for Delhi is 60%. So for first 7 hours we had 30% and in last 3.30 hours we had another 30%.
 
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I have a feeling that AAP will win this time too. The main reason is the block voting from muslim areas and the bifurcation of women votes at other places. The slimy guy first generated lakhs of rupees of fake water bill and later waived ot off. Now all the women are crying that kejri has waived off lakhs of our bills. Of course I dont know the effect of rss work and how much that will go in favour of bjp. From what I heard the last minute surge in voting has all gone to AAP. He dished out 500 rupees to make each of them go and vote.
 
shaxm said:
I have a feeling that AAP will win this time too. The main reason is the block voting from muslim areas and the bifurcation of women votes at other places. The slimy guy first generated lakhs of rupees of fake water bill and later waived ot off. Now all the women are crying that kejri has waived off lakhs of our bills. Of course I dont know the effect of rss work and how much that will go in favour of bjp. From what I heard the last minute surge in voting has all gone to AAP. He dished out 500 rupees to make each of them go and vote.
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They did it in slums when they saw BJP surging after 4pm but most slum dwellers had already voted in the morning hours and rest were too drunk to vote by the free booze given by AAP. It happened in the slums behind our society.
 
Very unpredictable elections. The Hindus dont want any CM in delhi , they would want it to be Union territory, and Muslims want Kejriwal.
Abhay rajput said:
You can not.. we are screwed in the long run . Just wait for 3-4 decades and you will find out .. I guess we never plan far ahead in time..
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Yes Muslims have won in the long run, we have lost Bharat. Thanks to ghonchu Hindus.
 
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