Delhi, UP and Haryana : Political Discussions

The latest ground report from Delhi is that BJP will sail thru even if congress gets about 15% votes. In last one week, there has been a shift of nearly 3% towards BJP from the 20-25% undecided voter. This has happened primarily due to the statements made by various muslims leading the Shaheen bagh and other protests. Latest flash point for Hindus is the blockage of road to Ujjain's Mahakaal temple in MP. Modi has yet to join the campaign. Expect a further 5-7% vote swing due to his campaign in the favour of BJP. as on date, Its the BJP which has the upward momentum while AAP is on the downward momentum. I will be least surprised if BJP candidates from primarily high muslim voter seats like Okhla, Seelampuri and Chandni Chowk also go to BJP. The Hindu consolidation is increasing every hour. BJP might cross a vote share of over 43% for the first time in Delhi assembly elections. There is no consolidation in favour of AAP as was seen in 2015 except for the muslim voters.
 
Give separate nation to 25 crore Indian Muslims: Congress spokesperson
A video clip of the Congress spokesperson, Ajay Verma, is doing the rounds on social media. In the video, from a programme that was aired this past week on an Indian television news channel, Verma is heard challenging the Bhartiya Janata Party-led ruling government to give a 'separate nation' to the 25 crore Indian Muslims and then declare India a 'Hindu Rashtra'.

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Ajay Verma, Congress spokesperson (Image Credit: Zee News)

"I dare Indian government to show guts and give a separate country, like Pakistan, to Indian Muslims. Then you can declare India as a Hindu Rashtra (nation)," he said during a live debate on Zee news.

Verma's remarks drew sharp reactions from the anchor and from the BJP spokesperson, Sudhanshu Trivedi, who berated him for his inflammatory and divisive comments.

The incident happened during the show 'Taal Thok Ke' on which participants were debating the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act.
Give separate nation to 25 crore Indian Muslims: Congress spokesperson
 
_Anonymous_ said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1225740130905772032

What's the prediction for Delhi? @vstol Jockey

I believe AAP is still leading by a decent margin.
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AAP does have marginal lead but a very large number of educated urban voter from Middle income group is still undecided. They hold the key to this election. I will put it as 43% for AAP and 41% for BJP. We might have many seats being decided with very thin margins. It all depends on how RSS is able to mobilise tomorrow.
 
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vstol Jockey said:
AAP does have marginal lead but a very large number of educated urban voter from Middle income group is still undecided. They hold the key to this election. I will put it as 43% for AAP and 41% for BJP. We might have many seats being decided with very thin margins. It all depends on how RSS is able to mobilise tomorrow.
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If the BJP loses I see the anti CAA protests receiving a boost & the entire eco system celebrating it as some Victory of secularism.
 
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vstol Jockey said:
This is the reason that I want BJP to win at any cost. But it seems that it might turn out to be a AAP-Congress JV.
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What do the stars say? I believe khujli won't return as CM. That's what the Twitter Astrologers have to say. They believe it's going to be someone else or maybe Sisodiya.
 
_Anonymous_ said:
What do the stars say? I believe khujli won't return as CM. That's what the Twitter Astrologers have to say. They believe it's going to be someone else or maybe Sisodiya.
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Thjis guy Sunil Yadav from New Delhi seat is a real dark horse and has the potential to defeat Khujli. He is a local and also from slums. His mother used to work as a maid in the Lutyens bangalows.
 
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Once upon a time in a hostel in an IIT, Upma was served daily in the breakfast. Most students were against it. They asked the management to vote to decide as to what should be served in the breakfast. The mangement was corrupt and wanted to serve upma only as that cost less and allowed them to swindle money. They came up with a brillient idea and used Indian election system as the method. They asked students to vote for the breakfast they wanted.
20% voted for upma, 18% for aloo parantha, 14% for poori sabzi, 16% for bread anda, 16% for choley bhaturey, 10% for dosa and 6% had no choice. Till date the hostel is being served Upma in breakfast and 80% who did not want upma are being forced to eat upma.
There is a lesson for us all Indians here. Imagine the 20% as the peacefuls and corrupt management as the parties which support them. Unless the majority unites and comes to a common understanding, the 20% will continue to rule over 80%.
 
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There are three scenerios for BJP to win Delhi,
  1. Congress vote share rises above 15% and committed voters of BJP come out in full strength to vote while the overall turnout is below 60%. This will mean that AAP candidates and undecided voters are not able to effect the outcome.
  2. Congress vote share remains below 10% and undecided voters choose BJP with BJP voters coming out in strength to vote and the voting percentage is same as 2015 around 66%.
  3. The total voting percentage is above 75%.
 
vstol Jockey said:
This is the reason that I want BJP to win at any cost. But it seems that it might turn out to be a AAP-Congress JV.
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Public don't vote for deserters and blackmailers.

Majority in Delhi hate Shaheen Bagh and see them for what they are yet they don't want to vote BJP, the same party they choose barely 10 months back, alot of them who hate Kejriwal, Kanhaiya and gang still won't vote BJP, do you see the reason?
 
BlackOpsIndia said:
Public don't vote for deserters and blackmailers.

Majority in Delhi hate Shaheen Bagh and see them for what they are yet they don't want to vote BJP, the same party they choose barely 10 months back, alot of them who hate Kejriwal, Kanhaiya and gang still won't vote BJP, do you see the reason?
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Delhi has the highest per capita income in India and majority of people who have benefitted from freebies are these very people and they dont vote also. The poorest vote for money and freebies and they are the support base of AAP.
 
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vstol Jockey said:
Delhi has the highest per capita income in India and majority of people who have benefitted from freebies are these very people and they dont vote also. The poorest vote for money and freebies and they are the support base of AAP.
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Yup, everyone is fool and corrupt except those genius BJP leaders who still couldn't figure out how to win Delhi.

Can Delhi government which is a bigger Nagar Nigam even come remotely close to Central funds? It's not about money.

(I see you directly quoted figures and statement from one not so famous political analyst, he was right for UP, doesn't make his every word gospel.)

Dilli ki hawa ab badal rhi hai was amplified way too much in echo chambers only, whatever benefit Shaheen Bagh yielded BJP's own mistakes made sure that it is neutralized. I am not on ground and has limited access so I can be wrong but I don't think it will be close fight or thin margins, BJP will most probably lose it comprehensively.
 
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1226074203302047745

Could be Barkha and cousins call to Imran to postpone it from election day so as terrorism and it's supporters don't get any TV time on election day and remind people of actual threat in their neighborhood. Added benefit, they can exonerate Hafiz Saed on a day BJP losses or to dampen the effect if they win. Well played.

Maybe Modiji can tell us about katl ki raat in next interview and how he chickened out when whole country was with him.
 
I am witnessing a very strange thing right now in my area and also about rest of Delhi. BJP voters are out in numbers and AAP voters have taken their win for granted and are not coming out in numbers. Seems we are going to see in Delhi what happened in Maharashtra where the voters stayed away thinking that BJP+SS will win in any case.
 
very large amount of money is being distributed by AAP in slums to make people vote and this is the reason for last minute surge. By 4pm, BJP voters had outnumbered AAP voters in over 60 seats in Delhi. AAP is now mobilising to retain its seats. It is a repeat of 2013.
 
It seems for the first ever time in History of BJP, a low turnout might hand them a win. Even in 2015, BJP had 34% share and overall polling percentage was 67%. Now all the voters who have not voted are most probably from AAP. I am a BJP voter and I saw nearly every BJP supporter from my society has gone and voted.
 
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vstol Jockey said:
very large amount of money is being distributed by AAP in slums to make people vote and this is the reason for last minute surge. By 4pm, BJP voters had outnumbered AAP voters in over 60 seats in Delhi. AAP is now mobilising to retain its seats. It is a repeat of 2013.
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Dangerous trend of distributing money for vote is happening across in all states...

Election Commission has No Spine?
 
vstol Jockey said:
It seems for the first ever time in History of BJP, a low turnout might hand them a win. Even in 2015, BJP had 34% share and overall polling percentage was 67%. Now all the voters who have not voted are most probably from AAP. I am a BJP voter and I saw nearly every BJP supporter from my society has gone and voted.
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It's look like AAP wins ... Exit polls are showing clear victory to AAP.. voter turnout was quite low compared to previous elections
 
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