Overtime the Germans may become more hawkish as the Russians and Chinese get more powerful.
We are talking about all the way in 2040 after all.
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Overtime the Germans may become more hawkish as the Russians and Chinese get more powerful.
We are talking about all the way in 2040 after all.
China is too far to really ever truly influence Europe. Also, Russia is going to become weaker, not stronger.
Also Russia has been hella belligerent yet Germany hasn't changed shit.
By that time, they will have 2 or 3 CBGs operating in the Atlantic.
Whatever the US has got today, multiply that by 2 or 3, you will get China after 2040.
The Russian economy has a lot of room to grow. They are only headed up. They are expected to displace Germany as Europe's biggest over the next 30 years.
And this is not counting the EEU, which could very easily become a military bloc overnight.
? I'm not sure.
They already have vast natural ressources. What will change in the next 20/30 years?
Russia is an emerging economy. They will transition from $12000 economy to $30000 or $40000 economy in order to match Western Europe.
They have the population to rival Japan's economy, even if it is declining. The EEU's population is increasing, which means the EEU will easily surpass Japan's economy. The Chinese BRI is also designed to increase the GDP of the EEU as a rival to the EU.
Before the financial crisis, they were growing at 8%. Until the next crisis hit, they will go back to high growth again.
The EEU's population should increase to 250 million. If per capita income increases to $30000, then their combined GDP will be $7.5T. $30000 is just the lower estimate. And considering they have massive amounts of natural resources, you are beginning to see how much of a threat Russia is.
I guarantee Germany will find a way to screw it up. Their track record with joint programs is terrible.
The slightest cost delay like all planes do, and you have a crisis on your hands.
I hope your talking about PPP. Their combined GDP is 1.5 trillion right now. Russia has always had massive amounts of natural resources, hasn't meant a lot.
Also the EEU is going to increase from 180 to 250? When every country except some asian countries and Africa every other population is even or shrinking.
Gotta factor Russia's best resource going under with shale and Tesla.
Nominal. They are at $12000 nominal today. In PPP terms, they are already at $28000 and the GDP is above Germany's.
Anyway, their currencies will get stronger, particularly the ruble, in a few years. The Russian GDP had peaked at $2.2T or so before the oil crisis.
Russia's population will decline slightly by about 10 million people by 2050. It's not going to be surprising for Russia alone to hit the $6T mark by 2050. They will have a greater population than today's Japan by then.
A few other countries sitting on the fence will join up. And a bunch of countries have high birth rates.
It will take decades for that to happen. World oil production alone will peak between 2040 and 2050 and then it will slowly taper down. Russia will become an advanced economy by then and will find other means of funding.
The rafale design costs slips by 4% only. It's among all the big modern french weapon program the most reliable in terms of budget (Leclerc MBT, Charles de Gaulle carrier, M51 nuclear missile splipped much more)
Dassault has a wide habit of cooperation. It's not the fisrt time they work with german. They know their qualities and defaults.
And be sure DA has a plan B...
I'm not so confident in Russia than you.
see how ex east germany evolved since 1991 and compare it to russia. It's cruel.
Russian population is decreasing, too much of them are over alcoolised, ravagged by corruption... I don't see a so bright future.
the sole link with Japan is the decreasing population. If not it's a perfect contrary (no raw material, very educated people in Japan)
Russia's big problem is that it's effectively an authoritarian dictatorship. That makes it an unattractive place to live. So, brain drain happens. And even if you dismiss the brain drain as being exaggerated, as some do, there's still the issue of education. The quality of Russian higher education is declining, and that has a dramatic impact on the capacity for Russia to innovate and develop in the future.
It's very difficult to tell since we are talking about 20+ years.
But the fact is after 2050, there will be very few poor countries left. Poverty will be minuscule, like 1% of the global population or less, and pretty much all countries in the world will be middle income or higher. So, based on that, you can expect Russia to have become an advanced economy by then.
The Central Asian countries will definitely get rich, even if they end up selling their sovereignty to the Chinese and the Russians.
And the minute you breach the $5T mark in GDP, you will become a pretty dangerous nation because the govt will have the funds necessary to build a globally dominant military and take part as an effective fighting force in any major war.
Japan's yearly central govt expenses are $2T, which is the same as China's and half that of the US.
Look how dangerous Russia is when their expenses are less than a paltry $300B. Can you imagine what it will be like if it climbs to $1T or even $2T? To put that into perspective, France's yearly expenses are $1.5T, so it's not unachievable for Russia.
They are piece of cake in a classical war scenario.
Thousands MBT, but how many are up to date? How many crews are well trained?
Hundreds fighters, but how many top class and how are they trained?
Very nice SAM equipments (but newer ones are not war proven, and the older were defeated, not without loss). But you never win a war with SAM. Only retarding the end.
Russia is only, for the moment, on par with USA on nuclear deterrence. After that.... a rotten door (but I remember Hitler said that in 1941 and we all know how it ends
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Poverty will never be 1%, as purchasing power increases inflation will push the poverty line much higher. More money in the hand of more people will increase the price of goods so even with more money you still be poor.
However we may eliminate hunger and common diseases, people maybe able to survive but can't say they won't be poor.
Correct. Even in US, poverty is more than 1%. Achieving that kind of number at global level is wishful thinking.
We've already had a discussion on randomradio's sunny optimism on the bleakest of days . He certainly doesn't disappoint.
You are talking about relative poverty, I am talking about absolute poverty.
https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/glossary/definition-of-absolute-and-relative-poverty/
They are piece of cake in a classical war scenario.
Thousands MBT, but how many are up to date? How many crews are well trained?
Hundreds fighters, but how many top class and how are they trained?
Very nice SAM equipments (but newer ones are not war proven, and the older were defeated, not without loss). But you never win a war with SAM. Only retarding the end.
Russia is only, for the moment, on par with USA on nuclear deterrence. After that.... a rotten door (but I remember Hitler said that in 1941 and we all know how it ends
In 10 years, they would have fully modernized. Armata, S-500, PAK FA, PAK DA etc.