Future Combat Air System (FCAS) - France/Germany

[_Anonymous_]

Dirty Vlady is asking us if we're feelink lucky.

Most guys here won't get it . Even Paddy won't . He's mostly a Chuck Norris fan before Chuck became viral courtesy internet memes , apart from B movies & sleaze from the 70's & 80's including , before I forget to add , blaxploitation. Isn't it so , Paddy ? @BMD

 

[zinswinsin]

The Russian armed forces have revealed to have been hobbled by mismanagement and corruption. So their impressive numbers on papers get a lot less impressive when the supply trucks' tires explode because they've been left parked outside without moving for over a full year. Also the morale of their troops is low because they've been kept in the dark about this "military intervention that's not a war, you go to jail if you say it's a war" right to the point where they were sent to cross the border. They don't understand what they're doing and why they're doing it.

However, despite all that, yes, Russia is absolutely still a threat. Can you take the gamble that their strategic forces (i.e. nuclear-tipped ICBMs) are at the same level of mismanagement and disarray? Maybe they are, but maybe they aren't. Dirty Vlady is asking us if we're feelink lucky.


A pan-European army would not be in any way practical. You've got to keep in mind that the European Union is not a nation-state. It's a sui generis union of independent nation-states. It's not a federation like the USA or India. So something where you need the agreement of all 27 member states to deploy a unit would just be a nightmare. By the time all the red tape is gone through, the enemy has already won the war.

Something that could work instead is having some sort of European defense headquarters that coordinates the troops that have been deployed by their respective countries. However, such a thing has always been blocked under the pretext that it'd be redundant with NATO. Even though there are EU countries not in NATO, and NATO countries not in the EU.

Honestly, the only functional way I can see of having troops from all EU countries operating effectively is to just have them join the French Foreign Legion. But this puts the financial burden squarely on France.


Yes, of course he's fed up. Who wouldn't be?

I wish I could just swap up the German negotiation team for the SCAF with the German negociation team for the F-35. It'd be nice to see the Lockheed guys having to listen to the insane prattle about how Germany wants to be in charge of manufacturing and maintenance and to have full intellectual property over every system and subsystem and to be able to veto any export contract and and and and and; while the Dassault guys get interlocutors who just say "jawohl" to everything sight unseen.

Nuclear weapons are equally dangerous under an incompetent army, arguably more so agree.

However, there is one situation where Russian conventional forces state matter and that is the most decisive one.

Taiwan invasion.

You overestimate how difficult an EU army is. Most people under 25 consider themselves European first. If the political will is there it will be solved. And I believe the will is there.

Even Biden the old old Atlantic mindset is pulling out.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Nuclear weapons are equally dangerous under an incompetent army, arguably more so agree.

However, there is one situation where Russian conventional forces state matter and that is the most decisive one.

Taiwan invasion.

You overestimate how difficult an EU army is. Most people under 25 consider themselves European first. If the political will is there it will be solved. And I believe the will is there.

Even Biden the old old Atlantic mindset is pulling out.

Most people under 25 feel European ? Where did you get that from ?

Just imagine how life'd be without the peace dividend with soaring oil & gas prices , runaway inflation , deindustrialization , low demand & productivity hence low growth & a tanking economy , low TFR , immigrants taking up low paid jobs driving down the wage market & you'd see how rapidly the embers of nationalism are stoked with racial ethnic linguistic & religious minorities becoming the target. Doesn't that explain the rise & continued rise of the RW in certain parts of Europe now spreading across the continent ?

That's generally where the current scenario is headed though I may well be held guilty of painting a bleak picture but in my defense I'd say it's generally headed that way . Not specifically.

While the goal of EU may well be to create a federation of states , it's still WiP & will take a very long time - possibly generations to get there which is just as well . These things can't be hurried .

 

[zinswinsin]

Most people under 25 feel European ? Where did you get that from ?

Just imagine how life'd be without the peace dividend with soaring oil & gas prices , runaway inflation , deindustrialization , low demand & productivity hence low growth & a tanking economy , low TFR , immigrants taking up low paid jobs driving down the wage market & you'd see how rapidly the embers of nationalism are stoked with racial ethnic linguistic & religious minorities becoming the target. Doesn't that explain the rise & continued rise of the RW in certain parts of Europe now spreading across the continent ?

That's generally where the current scenario is headed though I may well be held guilty of painting a bleak picture but in my defense I'd say it's generally headed that way . Not specifically.

While the goal of EU may well be to create a federation of states , it's still WiP & will take a very long time - possibly generations to get there which is just as well . These things can't be hurried .

Well RW is not really rising in the EU. Italy far right which was like 2% from absolute victory is marginalized even before Ukraine. Macron is about to win. Orban is like 50/50 for reelection and Czechs got rid of Babis. Poland is absolutely gonna stop being a right wing idiocy after Russia's invasion.

In fact, Putin has done such a great job I must update my England rejoins the EU guess from 2030 > 2025.

Boris is still going into the dumpster fire. Democrats might have a chance this years midterms if they run on Zelensky Democrats and Putin Republicans after arresting Trump.

Hopefully Conservatives win in 3 days in Korea and Brazil election goes to the guy that won't kill the entire world.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Well RW is not really rising in the EU. Italy far right which was like 2% from absolute victory is marginalized even before Ukraine. Macron is about to win. Orban is like 50/50 for reelection and Czechs got rid of Babis. Poland is absolutely gonna stop being a right wing idiocy after Russia's invasion.

In fact, Putin has done such a great job I must update my England rejoins the EU guess from 2030 > 2025.

Boris is still going into the dumpster fire. Democrats might have a chance this years midterms if they run on Zelensky Democrats and Putin Republicans after arresting Trump.

Hopefully Conservatives win in 3 days in Korea and Brazil election goes to the guy that won't kill the entire world.

Let's see whose version is more in sync with reality towards the end of the year . Besides I was referring to the rise of the RW in Europe . RW in other countries outside Europe have different concerns & characteristics which do not fit in with classical European definitions of the term .

 

[zinswinsin]

Let's see whose version is more in sync with reality towards the end of the year . Besides I was referring to the rise of the RW in Europe . RW in other countries outside Europe have different concerns & characteristics which do not fit in with classical European definitions of the term .

I mean I did type that out like my and many other people's fantasy dream.

 

[randomradio]

Dassault aviation's CEO is loosing patience
I think this is the end of the Franco-German SCAF and the beginning of the 100% french made SCAF.

Source (in french)

Could be a negotiation tactic.

Can someone please translate this gibberish:
Also, he continued, “the problem of the day and the thirty years to come for us, France and Dassault, is the Rafale.
Aussi, a-t-il poursuivi, « la problématique du jour et des trente ans à venir pour nous, la France et Dassault, c’est le Rafale.

Sur ce point, M. Trappier s’est dit persuadé que Berlin commandera des F-35. « On va voir avec notre partenaire numéro un affiché qu’est l’Allemagne si le premier choix qu’ils font est de signer le contrat SCAF ou d’acheter du F-35 », a-t-il dit.

I remember reading an article which said Germany should do both.

In other news:
In 2022, we will have to decide

Even Trappier understands the importance of 2022.

 

[randomradio]

If all the European nations just form a join Navy and Airforce, their combined power will be more than enough to take on Russia multiple times.

Today, yeah. 10 years from now, not necessarily. Anyway, Russia vs Europe is much more an air-land situation rather than air-sea. The European navy is necessary to help deal with China while creating a powerful deterrence effect against Russia's air-land deterrence.

 

[_Anonymous_]

2nd para :

On this point , Mr Trappier was convinced of Berlin's preference of F-35 , "on examination with our premier partners what we see is whether their first choice is to sign up for the FCAS or opt for the F-35. "

 

[randomradio]

The Russian armed forces have revealed to have been hobbled by mismanagement and corruption. So their impressive numbers on papers get a lot less impressive when the supply trucks' tires explode because they've been left parked outside without moving for over a full year. Also the morale of their troops is low because they've been kept in the dark about this "military intervention that's not a war, you go to jail if you say it's a war" right to the point where they were sent to cross the border. They don't understand what they're doing and why they're doing it.

Conscripts are always a problem.

A pan-European army would not be in any way practical. You've got to keep in mind that the European Union is not a nation-state. It's a sui generis union of independent nation-states. It's not a federation like the USA or India. So something where you need the agreement of all 27 member states to deploy a unit would just be a nightmare. By the time all the red tape is gone through, the enemy has already won the war.

This is something even we deal with politically. Anyway, make an EU army that is specific only to deal with the Russian military. Make all EU countries in NATO subordinate to the EU HQ and then make the HQ subordinate to NATO HQ. The outliers can chime in where necessary. Commonality of weapons and training will bring in more efficiencies and will be less of a financial burden.

Since you said it before, you have to be prepared for the possibility of Russia falling under China and potentially facing both Russian and Chinese troops in Europe. Their BRI infrastructure is more than enough to bring 300k troops to your doorstep.

 

[randomradio]

The first para's the problem.
Aussi, a-t-il poursuivi, « la problématique du jour et des trente ans à venir pour nous, la France et Dassault, c’est le Rafale.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Translation in the first para itself.

 

[A Person]

You overestimate how difficult an EU army is. Most people under 25 consider themselves European first. If the political will is there it will be solved. And I believe the will is there.

The curse of the developed world is that the people under 25 are a small minority. With long lifespans and low birthrates, we're aging nations with few children.

Can someone please translate this gibberish:
Also, he continued, “the problem of the day and the thirty years to come for us, France and Dassault, is the Rafale.
Aussi, a-t-il poursuivi, « la problématique du jour et des trente ans à venir pour nous, la France et Dassault, c’est le Rafale.

Sur ce point, M. Trappier s’est dit persuadé que Berlin commandera des F-35. « On va voir avec notre partenaire numéro un affiché qu’est l’Allemagne si le premier choix qu’ils font est de signer le contrat SCAF ou d’acheter du F-35 », a-t-il dit.

problématique => research question

So basically, what he's saying is that Dassault is happily busy for the next thirty years with the Rafale and its evolution. In other words: "we don't need this FCAS project, our business will survive just fine if it gets canceled (please cancel it)".

I remember reading an article which said Germany should do both.

The question isn't whether Germany can or should do both. The question is which one will get the go-ahead first. Because this will show which one is Germany's first choice, which one they actually see as a priority. Trappier's bet is that it will be the F-35, and that this will be yet another demonstration that Germany cannot be a partner for France.

Le's remember other Franco-German projects in military aviation.

• The MAWS, for a maritime patrol aircraft. Germany's demands were "Airbus only, keep Dassault out". To Trappier's dismay, France accepted... until the point where Germany decided to just go for the P-8. They haven't officially cancelled their participation in MAWS, but their negotation posture is now "we don't need it anymore, we're buying American, we just want you to buy German".
• The Tiger helicopter. They decided not to fund the third upgrade package. France had to partner with Spain instead to go ahead. Fun fact: did you know the German Tiger choppers do not have a gun? What good is an attack helicopter without a gun? You know why it doesn't have a gun? Because that gun is made by Nexter; the Germans wanted to have guns done by one of their own companies but they somehow bungled it. And instead of buying the French guns, they prefer to fly weaponless copters.
• The Alpha Jet. Okay, this is an oldie, but a goodie. The aircraft itself was developed just fine; however Germany ordered a lot more of them than they needed. And then just about every time France was trying to find an export customer for new aircraft, Germany hurried to propose half-price second-hand aircraft instead. The production line was starved of new orders and was closed.

You can also look at how shitty they've been to their partners in the Tornado and Typhoon programs, and let's remember that it's their FADEC that killed the Airbus pilots in that crashed A400M.

Oh yes, they absolutely want to have the NGF's flight control systems. Who does the Typhoon's FCS? Why, it's the British! Who does the Tornado FCS? Also the British! Who does the Airbus airliners FCS? Surely that's Airbus this time, right? Indeed, it's Airbus... but Airbus France in Toulouse, not Airbus Deutschland in Manching! They do not have any legitimacy asking for flight control systems.

 

[randomradio]

problématique => research question

So basically, what he's saying is that Dassault is happily busy for the next thirty years with the Rafale and its evolution. In other words: "we don't need this FCAS project, our business will survive just fine if it gets canceled (please cancel it)".

Thought so. The translation was really bad.

The question isn't whether Germany can or should do both. The question is which one will get the go-ahead first. Because this will show which one is Germany's first choice, which one they actually see as a priority. Trappier's bet is that it will be the F-35, and that this will be yet another demonstration that Germany cannot be a partner for France.

Le's remember other Franco-German projects in military aviation.

• The MAWS, for a maritime patrol aircraft. Germany's demands were "Airbus only, keep Dassault out". To Trappier's dismay, France accepted... until the point where Germany decided to just go for the P-8. They haven't officially cancelled their participation in MAWS, but their negotation posture is now "we don't need it anymore, we're buying American, we just want you to buy German".
• The Tiger helicopter. They decided not to fund the third upgrade package. France had to partner with Spain instead to go ahead. Fun fact: did you know the German Tiger choppers do not have a gun? What good is an attack helicopter without a gun? You know why it doesn't have a gun? Because that gun is made by Nexter; the Germans wanted to have guns done by one of their own companies but they somehow bungled it. And instead of buying the French guns, they prefer to fly weaponless copters.
• The Alpha Jet. Okay, this is an oldie, but a goodie. The aircraft itself was developed just fine; however Germany ordered a lot more of them than they needed. And then just about every time France was trying to find an export customer for new aircraft, Germany hurried to propose half-price second-hand aircraft instead. The production line was starved of new orders and was closed.

You can also look at how shitty they've been to their partners in the Tornado and Typhoon programs, and let's remember that it's their FADEC that killed the Airbus pilots in that crashed A400M.

Yeah, it sucks that you guys are stuck with sh!tty people. The F-35 makes the FCAS superfluous anyway.

Oh yes, they absolutely want to have the NGF's flight control systems. Who does the Typhoon's FCS? Why, it's the British! Who does the Tornado FCS? Also the British! Who does the Airbus airliners FCS? Surely that's Airbus this time, right? Indeed, it's Airbus... but Airbus France in Toulouse, not Airbus Deutschland in Manching! They do not have any legitimacy asking for flight control systems.

Then why are they negotiating from a position of strength? It's a much better option for France to present a take it or leave it deal.

 

[Amarante]

Nothing about ngf/scaf…
(Der Spiegel, march01)

Germany Goes Big on Defense Spending​

For years, Germany has starved its military of money. But on Sunday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced massive new defense spending. DER SPIEGEL has learned what the money will be used for.
[…]
The idea of dumping a significant quantity of money into Germany’s ailing armed forces has been around for some time. Several months ago, military planners and Defense Ministry bean counters developed a number of confidential briefs for distribution among political party leaders who were involved in negotiation Germany’s governing coalition at the time.
[…]
One of those was of particular importance: a confidential, six-page brief from Oct. 26 seems to have been particularly persuasive to Scholz and Finance Minister Christian Lindner, a member of the Free Democrats (FDP), the business-friendly party which is part of Scholz’s coalition government along with the Greens.
[…]
According to the memo, the Defense Ministry hopes that once the Bundeswehr is brought up to speed with the sudden injection of the 100 billion euros, daily operations and the numerous smaller upgrades could then be financed with the normal defense budget. But even that budget would have to be significantly boosted in the coming years to over 2 percent of gross domestic product.

The memo also provides a list of projects into which the money is to be invested. Around 34 billion euros would have to be invested in the following multinational defense projects:

• the TWISTER system, designed to improve defenses against supersonic weapons;
• the development of a "combat cloud”;
• the development of strategic air transport capabilities;
• the German-French development of a new air-defense system, a new generation of battle tanks and theEurodrone;
• a new artillery and munitions system in cooperation with Britain;
• the development of new frigates and landing platforms in cooperation with the Netherlands;
• the development of new submarine technology in cooperation with Norway.

The memo, though, calls for the vast majority of the special defense fund (around 68 billion euros) to flow into large, national defense projects:

• At the top of the priority list is a successor to the ancient Tornado fighters. In his speech on Sunday, Scholz indicated that the current strategy calls for a hybrid solution, essentially taking elements of the modernized Eurofighterand from the new American super-fighter F-35 from Lockheed Martin. This project alone is estimated to cost around 15 billion euros.
• Around 5 billion euros are earmarked for the new heavy transport helicopter. The Bundeswehr’s old CH-53 helicopters from the 1970s have become prohibitively expensive to maintain. A new successor model is to be purchased from the U.S. as quickly as possible. There are two different models, both of which are already available, under consideration.
• Some 20 billion euros must be invested in new munitions. Because the threat level has been low for so long, the Bundeswehr hasn’t been regularly refilling its weapons depots for decades. The result is that there is a severe lack of rockets and artillery shells for tanks, ships and helicopters. If the German military is serious about fulfilling its NATO pledges by 2030, the depots must be urgently restocked.
• Another expensive project is the "Digitization of Land-Based Operations" (D-LBO), which essentially means a revamping of all communications systems. Even today, German troops don’t communicate digitally, with the PRC117 encrypted devices a rarity in the Bundeswehr, generally only issued to special forces like the KSK. The Bundeswehr believes the digitalization of military communications will cost around 3 billion euros.
• Almost 2 billion euros are to be invested in new corvette warships.
• Around 600 million is to be earmarked for the modernization of Patriot air-defense systems.

[…]

Budgetary About-Face: Germany Goes Big on Defense Spending

For years, Germany has starved its military of money. But on Sunday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced massive new defense spending. DER SPIEGEL has learned what the money will be used for.

www.spiegel.de

 

[A Person]

Then why are they negotiating from a position of strength? It's a much better option for France to present a take it or leave it deal.

French delusions and German deceptions.

Du néant de la relation stratégique franco-allemande au divorce nécessaire

Après la diffusion le 23 mars 2021 de la tribune sur les erreurs allemandes de la France, le groupe Vauban, qui rassemble une vingtaine de spécialistes en activité des questions de Défense, revient sur l’échec de la politique allemande menée depuis 2017.

www-latribune-fr.translate.goog

 

[randomradio]

Nothing about ngf/scaf…
(Der Spiegel, march01)

Germany Goes Big on Defense Spending​

For years, Germany has starved its military of money. But on Sunday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced massive new defense spending. DER SPIEGEL has learned what the money will be used for.
[…]
The idea of dumping a significant quantity of money into Germany’s ailing armed forces has been around for some time. Several months ago, military planners and Defense Ministry bean counters developed a number of confidential briefs for distribution among political party leaders who were involved in negotiation Germany’s governing coalition at the time.
[…]
One of those was of particular importance: a confidential, six-page brief from Oct. 26 seems to have been particularly persuasive to Scholz and Finance Minister Christian Lindner, a member of the Free Democrats (FDP), the business-friendly party which is part of Scholz’s coalition government along with the Greens.
[…]
According to the memo, the Defense Ministry hopes that once the Bundeswehr is brought up to speed with the sudden injection of the 100 billion euros, daily operations and the numerous smaller upgrades could then be financed with the normal defense budget. But even that budget would have to be significantly boosted in the coming years to over 2 percent of gross domestic product.

The memo also provides a list of projects into which the money is to be invested. Around 34 billion euros would have to be invested in the following multinational defense projects:

• the TWISTER system, designed to improve defenses against supersonic weapons;
• the development of a "combat cloud”;
• the development of strategic air transport capabilities;
• the German-French development of a new air-defense system, a new generation of battle tanks and theEurodrone;
• a new artillery and munitions system in cooperation with Britain;
• the development of new frigates and landing platforms in cooperation with the Netherlands;
• the development of new submarine technology in cooperation with Norway.

The memo, though, calls for the vast majority of the special defense fund (around 68 billion euros) to flow into large, national defense projects:

• At the top of the priority list is a successor to the ancient Tornado fighters. In his speech on Sunday, Scholz indicated that the current strategy calls for a hybrid solution, essentially taking elements of the modernized Eurofighterand from the new American super-fighter F-35 from Lockheed Martin. This project alone is estimated to cost around 15 billion euros.
• Around 5 billion euros are earmarked for the new heavy transport helicopter. The Bundeswehr’s old CH-53 helicopters from the 1970s have become prohibitively expensive to maintain. A new successor model is to be purchased from the U.S. as quickly as possible. There are two different models, both of which are already available, under consideration.
• Some 20 billion euros must be invested in new munitions. Because the threat level has been low for so long, the Bundeswehr hasn’t been regularly refilling its weapons depots for decades. The result is that there is a severe lack of rockets and artillery shells for tanks, ships and helicopters. If the German military is serious about fulfilling its NATO pledges by 2030, the depots must be urgently restocked.
• Another expensive project is the "Digitization of Land-Based Operations" (D-LBO), which essentially means a revamping of all communications systems. Even today, German troops don’t communicate digitally, with the PRC117 encrypted devices a rarity in the Bundeswehr, generally only issued to special forces like the KSK. The Bundeswehr believes the digitalization of military communications will cost around 3 billion euros.
• Almost 2 billion euros are to be invested in new corvette warships.
• Around 600 million is to be earmarked for the modernization of Patriot air-defense systems.

[…]

Budgetary About-Face: Germany Goes Big on Defense Spending

For years, Germany has starved its military of money. But on Sunday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced massive new defense spending. DER SPIEGEL has learned what the money will be used for.

www.spiegel.de

Then I suppose France is going it alone.

 

[Hydra]

Then I suppose France is going it alone.

We already loose the opportunity with su57,for a good reason after seeing the aircraft of Russian airforce in Ukraine. Lets hope we will grab this opportunity by ignoring DRDO's ego.
There is no way india can build anything similar in next 25-35 years.

 

[Amarante]

Then I suppose France is going it alone.

The “brief” quoted by Der Spiegel dates from October. Recent events may lead to an update...

 

[randomradio]

French delusions and German deceptions.

Du néant de la relation stratégique franco-allemande au divorce nécessaire

Après la diffusion le 23 mars 2021 de la tribune sur les erreurs allemandes de la France, le groupe Vauban, qui rassemble une vingtaine de spécialistes en activité des questions de Défense, revient sur l’échec de la politique allemande menée depuis 2017.

www-latribune-fr.translate.goog

Yep, read it before.

The deception part is fine, it's expected. I'm questioning the delusion part. In a 50-50 for FGFA, if India goes to Russia and says we will make the engine, they will laugh us out the door. Why isn't France being assertive? Only Trappier is acting the right way.