IAF Chronicles - A side view of whats going on behind the closed doors in New Delhi

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Let's look at the previous decade of deals.

10 C-17's for 4.1 billion.

13 C-130's for 2 billion roughly.

15 chinooks + 22 apache + 6 option for 3.6 billion.

12 P-8Is for 3.1 billion.

145 777 artillery howitzers for 700million.

I have no idea how many engines were procured so can't do much about that.

15billion roughly total.


Pending are the sea avenger and predator drones which easily would add another 10 billion to that ledger.
 
Cheif Lanba visited France last month, Even if we decide to incorporate Barracuda tech in our subs it would at least take a year to sign the contract. But the fabrication of the SSN hulls has begun long ago. Wouldn't it be impossible to change the design and component list that goes int0 them now?

It is not clear as to what extend the Barracuda will influence our own SSN program if the deal is confirmed. But even small changes like increased hydrodynamic efficiency over the hull, re-shaping the tower/rudder/wings for decreased acoustic signature as well as improved propeller design can be easily incorporated even if the final design of our SSN is frozen. Internal sub-systems can be changed at will.

But in my opinion, the major collaboration would be in the nuke reactor design. Hull fabrication won't be a roadblock as the reactor design has only to conform to the hull dimensions and apart from weight restrictions.
 
F-16 deal would go through, one reason being the 'fee' for inclusion into the strategic 'gang'

isnt the following :
Let's look at the previous decade of deals.

10 C-17's for 4.1 billion.

13 C-130's for 2 billion roughly.

15 chinooks + 22 apache + 6 option for 3.6 billion.

12 P-8Is for 3.1 billion.

145 777 artillery howitzers for 700million.

I have no idea how many engines were procured so can't do much about that.

15billion roughly total.


Pending are the sea avenger and predator drones which easily would add another 10 billion to that ledger.

not enough of "fee" to join the 'gang' ?

i would prefer we would join the 'gang' because they need us. at which point they need to pony up the deals. what sort of a alliance is the US making us? on one side they Pay Pakistan to "fight" terrorists for the US - rag tag bunch.
but they want India to pay them to help fight the Chinese - a much more sophisticated bunch.
 
isnt the following :


not enough of "fee" to join the 'gang' ?

i would prefer we would join the 'gang' because they need us. at which point they need to pony up the deals. what sort of a alliance is the US making us? on one side they Pay Pakistan to "fight" terrorists for the US - rag tag bunch.
but they want India to pay them to help fight the Chinese - a much more sophisticated bunch.

As far as the US is concerned, the previous deals are done. If we need their support in the futur, then we must pay them for it. In essence, they want to make us dependent on them for our future security needs, like they've already done to the NATO countries along with Japan, S. Korea, Australia and the like.

And this govt is very much inclined to cozy upto them, while being cognizant of the concerns to that alliance. Hence, they're looking for a more balanced approach to dealing with them.

If you look at the list you shared above, apart from the Apache, P-8 and M777 which haven't been inducted in any sizable numbers, everything else is a support/logistic system, which doesn't give the US much strategic depth into our military planning. That is why they're keen for us to induct their combat systems in much larger numbers, and the reason why we have kept our distance for so long.
 
Its beyond them now. The AESA Radar proposed by Russia had issues. Certain important MKI data has been suspected to be well within adversaries response plan of fighting MKIs and thus the Super Upgrade plan went for drastic changes .

In a way the whole profile of Super MKI will be a very different bird all together.

The good part is technology will come via Pvt sector company to partner with HAL for the upgrade project which is again a good sign.

About F-16 deal, the file was put on freeze upto June 2018 but USA pressure has warranted a meeting for discussion. IF the meeting does not conclude in F16 favour then we are safe to assume that a certain deal like Helo NMRH might go to LM Tata JV and perhaps Tata may be offered a role as the pvt sector company in MKI upgrade.

About India Russia distance, its now business relations where a buyer demands a certain expectations from the product performances and after sales service support with everything built in purchased contract. This is of course not liked by the Russian style of working and our efforts not to get duped ever again by any contractual loopholes (case in hand we still are signing Ka226 deal for last 2 years and even this year we will sign)

Unless again PM Modi does a U Turn and embraces Russia despite of all this, the chances are more or less limited for the Russia participation into future aircraft platforms.. We might see them with AD deals , Tank deals and Navy deals more

But why? For 10-12B 100 SE aircrafts, we can still go forward and buy 72 Rafales with weapons without considering the infrastructure and maintainance cost for 5 years. The remaining ac can be made from mk1a considering its better than mig21 and 27 in all aspects (except maybe speed).

If the US is pressurizing us then they need to provide some worthwhile tech. They wont provide engine tech. Fine. But Source codes, Radars,EW Suite, something worth. Or allow us to tinker with our aircraft as we wish. Should be able to integrate our own weapons, russian ones without their interference. How can the US expect us to sign without any assurance. LM has already told it wont share any ToT.
 
and this is where I am a bit fuzzy.
they pay pakistan for the support
but they want us to pay for their support

Pakistan has leverage over USA because of the Afghan war.

It's pretty simple, salary negotiation or international diplomacy isn't about right, wrong or justification, it's about leverage.

For USA, China is about hegemony, while important isn't comparable to the situation India faces with two front war. USA has strong allies in the pacific with Japan, SK and Australia. India has what in terms of allies? A broken relation with Russia who's cozying up to China.
 
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What is the alternative to inducting a SE in large numbers? We have already discussed the timeline of LCA.

I hope we get what we desire to have a competitive private line to DRAL.

If the terms could not reach to the level of Rafale deal for a aircraft that's getting retired in US , we can surely expect future troubles.
 
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if you dont ally with us.. we will find a way to ally with China. or at the least, deny you any advantage that can come with having a massive army right at china's door step in case of a skirmish in the pacific region.

lol c'mon. we both know that's a lie. Especially with how close Pakistan and China are.

name me the last time #1 and #2 were friends, especially in the same region. Sparta and Athens, UK/France, Germany/USSR, USA/USSR.
 
I wonder why we don't go for F18 which will be more potent than F16 for sure and will suit both navy and IAF.

At least with the F-16 you could pretend you're not signing a political agreement under the guise of "single engine." Especially good cover considering IAF 126 requirement for M-2000 that were canceled. Just say cheaper, tejas delay, single engine, blah blah blah.

If you go ahead with the F-18's there's literally no reason other than politics compared to more Rafales.


Remember if you are determined for a political deal like Modi seems, requirements drawn up are more about justifying political deal. It's like getting an answer first and molding the questions around the answer.

Logically it make's no damn sense to have a decade long MMRCA contest, then redraw the contest with the two aircraft eliminated early on. Single engine is the only excuse.
 
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Americans want F-16 to have last hurrah.
IAF actually fell into a stupid concept of Single engine or twin engine, weight etc, These are components of a plane,
I think I would rather go for the capability and the role of the plane than being single or twin engine. Single engine are cheap to operate but the difference is it half of that of Twin engine? It is say 20-30% more than single engine which is on boundary of significant/insignificant, but one of the advantages of twin engine is relaibility, in case of failure of one engine, the Single engine plane will crash, where as twin engine plane has chances to survive and RTB thus saving a plane, and hence the capital cost.
If you look at the overall loss of jet planes say since 70s between single engine and twin engine, the ratio will be very much favouring the twin engine. If aircraft loses both its engine then its a big issue the probablity of that happening is very very very less.

With Super Sukhoi upgrade, first change we need is engine,, maybe something like AL-41, or maybe Item 30 if possible as that might be more future proof (if its reliable) so choice between Item 30 and AL-41. A Good AESA Radar, MAWS, a better IRST system hopefully QWIP based.
And more composites.

Super sukhoi upgrade should start within a year or two to ensure that the Sukhoi fleet is top of the line as compared to our North eastern neighbours at least

I do not think adding Su-30 MKI nos would be good, I might suggest to go for few squadrons (36 units) of Su-57 which should have the elite pilots of IAF something like the Germans had during WW1 thus ensuring a powerful and experienced pilots actually taking down the enemy by their throat.

Its beyond them now. The AESA Radar proposed by Russia had issues. Certain important MKI data has been suspected to be well within adversaries response plan of fighting MKIs and thus the Super Upgrade plan went for drastic changes .

In a way the whole profile of Super MKI will be a very different bird all together.

The good part is technology will come via Pvt sector company to partner with HAL for the upgrade project which is again a good sign.

About F-16 deal, the file was put on freeze upto June 2018 but USA pressure has warranted a meeting for discussion. IF the meeting does not conclude in F16 favour then we are safe to assume that a certain deal like Helo NMRH might go to LM Tata JV and perhaps Tata may be offered a role as the pvt sector company in MKI upgrade.

About India Russia distance, its now business relations where a buyer demands a certain expectations from the product performances and after sales service support with everything built in purchased contract. This is of course not liked by the Russian style of working and our efforts not to get duped ever again by any contractual loopholes (case in hand we still are signing Ka226 deal for last 2 years and even this year we will sign)

Unless again PM Modi does a U Turn and embraces Russia despite of all this, the chances are more or less limited for the Russia participation into future aircraft platforms.. We might see them with AD deals , Tank deals and Navy deals more
 
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Some news came in late hours .

F-16/Gripen E/SE Saga

- Based on huge pressure from USA, MOD and PM Modi will have a round of discussion on F-16 proposal which has been put off indefinitely.
- The pressure is put with a single point emphasis that such a climb down will show case India's reluctance to go on with USA Partnership and will be detrimental for India's other geo political process.
- Its expected that some other urgency deal will be worked out if F-16 deal is not through in this meeting.
- Technical aspect clearance has not been accorded by IAF for F-16 Block 70 in the files
- Saab Gripen E offer was rejected by IAF as well and the same has been conveyed to Saab folks by MOD unofficial channels.
- There is a understanding in MOD circles that a systematic campaign to bad mouth each of the other prospective candidates will be done in Indian Media (we already seeing that) to create a atmosphere and look for a comeback.

Rafale News

- For some time low risk low altitude terrain hugging will be undertaken by Jaguar and Rafales will do terrain hugging profile in medium or high risk missions only.
- In the recent meeting between S Christopher , Chmn DRDO and Secretary R&D DoD, with French officals like DM Parly, Meeting with Prez Macron and senior management of Dassault in Paris, a certain discussion focused on 5th Gen plane and joint efforts.
- The discussion focussed on many aspects and our decision making changes regarding indigenous 5th Gen projects,
- It was mutially agreed that Rafale F4.2 and beyond standard technology will flow in DRDO authorised Units and DRAL Ecosystem.
- The Rafale under such technological expertise will be just below the formal definition of 5th Gen but except the stealth shaping and reduced RCS , most of the other technical fields will be outmatched with Rafale upgradation plan.
- There was also a talk on a dedicated Electronic Support Version of Rafale in the lines of F35 and increasing the stealth shaping and cancellation aspects using GaN tech. A study for the same is planned as a way to upgrade the fleet via such technical upgrades.
- As of now such a dedicated platform for ESV Rafale is not planned but in future if a need arise, such a platform will be jointly manufactured.
- Also talks hovered around a certain light category aircraft platform where France has offered help and support. A quick note on all such technology sharing and systems for that aircraft was quickly pointed and jointly reviewed. Things seems to be on track.
- In the end Prez Macron also added that all future Rafales will be made with certain % percentage from Indian Unit of DRAL components always. It may start with any of the Qatari or Egyptian follow on orders if DRAL facility is ready with manufacturing.

Super MKI News
- After New Delhi's constant follow up, Russian side has replied with certain data and has proposed some further forward discussion during the joint India Russia meeting.
- India has given a revert stating they plan to undertake all the portion of Super Upgrade in MKI facility of HAL.

- New Delhi made two more important disclosures
1. The Super Upgrade will have Israel as a technology consultant cum guide for all the whole project for upgrade.
2. A Indian private sector company will be part of this upgrade plan and will partner HAL for MKI Upgrade.

-This Indian Company will be the base company via which certain technologies will flow. Its expected to have a certain highest possible technology access from a American Major Raytheon among some other entities for Avionics and with Israeli Companies for major systems/subsystems and French portions too.

@Rosicky7
 
At least with the F-16 you could pretend you're not signing a political agreement under the guise of "single engine." Especially good cover considering IAF 126 requirement for M-2000 that were canceled. Just say cheaper, tejas delay, single engine, blah blah blah.

If you go ahead with the F-18's there's literally no reason other than politics compared to more Rafales.


Remember if you are determined for a political deal like Modi seems, requirements drawn up are more about justifying political deal. It's like getting an answer first and molding the questions around the answer.
Today morning I read an Interview by Vijainder K Thakur which talked about per hour cost for single engine vs double engine. cost difference is not huge and also double engine planes have better survival rates. If GOI Needs double engine planes I am sure situation can be created where double engine planes becomes need of hour. I hope you understand what I mean, Selective leaks of certain fictious report justifying twin engine planes.
 
Why don't Hal reverse engineer flankers and produce our own variants like J 11 and J 16, China would have done it by now.
There is a reverse engineering cell in HAL Nashik, led by One grade IV engineer, that's it. The guy is brilliant, but the scope is limited to fastners, plugs, and thats about it.

Indian domestic manufacturing projects have been limited to certain subsystems. Without design and engineering there is no scope for any product development, not even rev engg.
 
Some news came in late hours .

F-16/Gripen E/SE Saga

- Based on huge pressure from USA, MOD and PM Modi will have a round of discussion on F-16 proposal which has been put off indefinitely.
- The pressure is put with a single point emphasis that such a climb down will show case India's reluctance to go on with USA Partnership and will be detrimental for India's other geo political process.
- Its expected that some other urgency deal will be worked out if F-16 deal is not through in this meeting.
- Technical aspect clearance has not been accorded by IAF for F-16 Block 70 in the files
- Saab Gripen E offer was rejected by IAF as well and the same has been conveyed to Saab folks by MOD unofficial channels.
- There is a understanding in MOD circles that a systematic campaign to bad mouth each of the other prospective candidates will be done in Indian Media (we already seeing that) to create a atmosphere and look for a comeback.

Rafale News

- For some time low risk low altitude terrain hugging will be undertaken by Jaguar and Rafales will do terrain hugging profile in medium or high risk missions only.
- In the recent meeting between S Christopher , Chmn DRDO and Secretary R&D DoD, with French officals like DM Parly, Meeting with Prez Macron and senior management of Dassault in Paris, a certain discussion focused on 5th Gen plane and joint efforts.
- The discussion focussed on many aspects and our decision making changes regarding indigenous 5th Gen projects,
- It was mutially agreed that Rafale F4.2 and beyond standard technology will flow in DRDO authorised Units and DRAL Ecosystem.
- The Rafale under such technological expertise will be just below the formal definition of 5th Gen but except the stealth shaping and reduced RCS , most of the other technical fields will be outmatched with Rafale upgradation plan.
- There was also a talk on a dedicated Electronic Support Version of Rafale in the lines of F35 and increasing the stealth shaping and cancellation aspects using GaN tech. A study for the same is planned as a way to upgrade the fleet via such technical upgrades.
- As of now such a dedicated platform for ESV Rafale is not planned but in future if a need arise, such a platform will be jointly manufactured.
- Also talks hovered around a certain light category aircraft platform where France has offered help and support. A quick note on all such technology sharing and systems for that aircraft was quickly pointed and jointly reviewed. Things seems to be on track.
- In the end Prez Macron also added that all future Rafales will be made with certain % percentage from Indian Unit of DRAL components always. It may start with any of the Qatari or Egyptian follow on orders if DRAL facility is ready with manufacturing.

Super MKI News
- After New Delhi's constant follow up, Russian side has replied with certain data and has proposed some further forward discussion during the joint India Russia meeting.
- India has given a revert stating they plan to undertake all the portion of Super Upgrade in MKI facility of HAL.

- New Delhi made two more important disclosures
1. The Super Upgrade will have Israel as a technology consultant cum guide for all the whole project for upgrade.
2. A Indian private sector company will be part of this upgrade plan and will partner HAL for MKI Upgrade.

-This Indian Company will be the base company via which certain technologies will flow. Its expected to have a certain highest possible technology access from a American Major Raytheon among some other entities for Avionics and with Israeli Companies for major systems/subsystems and French portions too.
Which is this certain light category aircraft?
 
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