IAF Chronicles - A side view of whats going on behind the closed doors in New Delhi

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Current production rate will ensure the 20 IOC MK-1 airframes are delivered by 2019 and 20 FOC Mk-1 by 2020 end.

The whole point of increasing prod.rate >16/year becomes irrelevant if HAL cannot complete Mk-1A development in time i.e. by 2020.
As we know, more LCA class jets are required. Atleast 12 sqns or more than 220 jets initially. Mk-1 variants make up 6 sqns, and the proposed SEF another 6 sqns. Mk-2 can start production only after the Mk-1 completes its production run, which can go upto 2026.

Let me tell you how it would happen.

Production rate of 16/year will only be achieved by 2019 when all 20 IOC Mk-1s are delivered and another yaer and a half to deliver the 20 FOC Mk-1s. To deliver another 83 jets, it'll take HAL another 5+ years, i.e. 2026 end. By this time, theoretically, Mk-2 should be ready for production. Now, the question is, can the Mk-2 complete its development in time? Let's assume they do.

So, it'll take HAL another 7+ years to complete production run of 6 sqn of Mk-2 with the same prod.rate or by 2034. At the same time, if we go for F-16 instead of Mk-2, they can start the production under MII and deliveries can start from 2022 (instead of 2027 as in the case of Mk-2) assuming the contract can be signed in 2019. But granted, the initial rate from the MII plant would be low, but it'll be ramped up to 24/year to complete the production run of 6 sqn in 8 years, i.e. estimated 2029 (instead of 2034 as in the case of Mk-2).

Now, the total requirement is around 400 fighters, i.e. 9 to 10 more squadrons. The logical think to do to achieve the required number before 2035 is to have two production line churning out both Mk-2s and F-16s. Since, more Mk-2 are being ordered, prod.rate can be increased to 24/year from 2027.

i.e. Mk-2 production from 2027 at 24/year total of 6 sqns or 120 jets in 5 years or by 2032.
Either order another 4 sqn of Mk-2 or 72 jets at 24/year from 2032 to 2035 (120+80=200 or 10 sqns in total)
or

order a second lot of F-16s, production from 2030 at 24/year total of 4 sqns or 72 jets in 3 years or by 2033 (108+72=180 or 10 sqns in total)

So, you have a total of 400+ SE jets (Mk-1 x20, Mk-1A x83, Mk-2 x200, F-16 x108) by the year 2035 or 400+ SE jets (Mk-1 x20, Mk-1A x83, Mk-2 x120, F-16 x180) by the year 2033



Now, instead of going for the F-16, we can order 15 sqn of Mk-2 or 300 jets, production starting from 2027 at 24/year, will be completed in 12+ years or mid 2039.


Also, to note, these 400 fighters are over and above the need for more Twin-engined MRCA. IAF still need 8 sqns or 144 jets in this category. This will be filled by another 36 fly away + 108 MII Rafales in addition to the 36 already ordered. More Rafales would have been ordered if it weren't for the procurement of this new foreign SEF.


Don't we need to sign foundational agreements before signing F16 deal..
Also LM have to develop the Block 70IN variant ..1-2 years enough for that ?
 
Current production rate will ensure the 20 IOC MK-1 airframes are delivered by 2019 and 20 FOC Mk-1 by 2020 end.

The whole point of increasing prod.rate >16/year becomes irrelevant if HAL cannot complete Mk-1A development in time i.e. by 2020.
As we know, more LCA class jets are required. Atleast 12 sqns or more than 220 jets initially. Mk-1 variants make up 6 sqns, and the proposed SEF another 6 sqns. Mk-2 can start production only after the Mk-1 completes its production run, which can go upto 2026.

Let me tell you how it would happen.

Production rate of 16/year will only be achieved by 2019 when all 20 IOC Mk-1s are delivered and another yaer and a half to deliver the 20 FOC Mk-1s. To deliver another 83 jets, it'll take HAL another 5+ years, i.e. 2026 end. By this time, theoretically, Mk-2 should be ready for production. Now, the question is, can the Mk-2 complete its development in time? Let's assume they do.

So, it'll take HAL another 7+ years to complete production run of 6 sqn of Mk-2 with the same prod.rate or by 2034. At the same time, if we go for F-16 instead of Mk-2, they can start the production under MII and deliveries can start from 2022 (instead of 2027 as in the case of Mk-2) assuming the contract can be signed in 2019. But granted, the initial rate from the MII plant would be low, but it'll be ramped up to 24/year to complete the production run of 6 sqn in 8 years, i.e. estimated 2029 (instead of 2034 as in the case of Mk-2).

Now, the total requirement is around 400 fighters, i.e. 9 to 10 more squadrons. The logical think to do to achieve the required number before 2035 is to have two production line churning out both Mk-2s and F-16s. Since, more Mk-2 are being ordered, prod.rate can be increased to 24/year from 2027.

i.e. Mk-2 production from 2027 at 24/year total of 6 sqns or 120 jets in 5 years or by 2032.
Either order another 4 sqn of Mk-2 or 72 jets at 24/year from 2032 to 2035 (120+80=200 or 10 sqns in total)
or

order a second lot of F-16s, production from 2030 at 24/year total of 4 sqns or 72 jets in 3 years or by 2033 (108+72=180 or 10 sqns in total)

So, you have a total of 400+ SE jets (Mk-1 x20, Mk-1A x83, Mk-2 x200, F-16 x108) by the year 2035 or 400+ SE jets (Mk-1 x20, Mk-1A x83, Mk-2 x120, F-16 x180) by the year 2033



Now, instead of going for the F-16, we can order 15 sqn of Mk-2 or 300 jets, production starting from 2027 at 24/year, will be completed in 12+ years or mid 2039.


Also, to note, these 400 fighters are over and above the need for more Twin-engined MRCA. IAF still need 8 sqns or 144 jets in this category. This will be filled by another 36 fly away + 108 MII Rafales in addition to the 36 already ordered. More Rafales would have been ordered if it weren't for the procurement of this new foreign SEF.
Bro, F16s being delivered up to 2033, flying with IAF until 2070s ie a HUNDRED years after the F16 first flew, only in India!


This is a joke of epic proportions. At least LCA MK.2 will be able to build in future technologies and be decvloled to IAF requirements, India will have to pay through the nose for F16s to be customised to Indian requirements.
 
Don't we need to sign foundational agreements before signing F16 deal..
Also LM have to develop the Block 70IN variant ..1-2 years enough for that ?
It will require years and years of talks between India and US to get framework for off the shelf purchase of F16 cleared for India along with weaponary it will take even longer to get a F16 line in India cleared.

Anyone thinking this is viable see how long it has taken to get even 22 UNARMED Guardians sold to India and even that is not finalised yet.


Best case scenario is F16 deal is signed in 2025, will F16 even be in production by then?


This just isn’t going to happen. Only SE jet IAF will buy is LCA.
 
Not vassal, please

Pretty strong and, sorry to say, irrational statement. Think hard on this one and realise what is happening.

Hint: History of USSR and China.

Let me get this straight.

You are comparing USSR/China to India/US?

They were ideologically aligned and fighting the same imaginary enemies. They had shit load in common.

They even made a treaty in the 50s for that.

Tell me now how is India and US aligned? Tell me one instance where India is more than anything but a preferred customer. The moment India stops buying, we will be spanked so hard. The moment we act against their ideology, we will be dropped.

So tell me, what do you define that relation?

What’s the word you looking for? Tired of Indians deluding themselves thinking they suddenly become equals to the west.

You are an army man. Expect better from you.
 
Bro, F16s being delivered up to 2033, flying with IAF until 2070s ie a HUNDRED years after the F16 first flew, only in India!


This is a joke of epic proportions. At least LCA MK.2 will be able to build in future technologies and be decvloled to IAF requirements, India will have to pay through the nose for F16s to be customised to Indian requirements.

I know, its pathetic. But due to the evolving security dynamics and the inability for LCA to keep to its timelines, the situation may eventually force us to do it.
A Gripen deal is unlikely because the Swedes don't offer us any strategic value, nor can it offer us any meaningful ToT other than limited GaN technology.

Don't we need to sign foundational agreements before signing F16 deal..
Also LM have to develop the Block 70IN variant ..1-2 years enough for that ?

That is also one of my concerns. GoI might decide to speed up the process and sign the foundation agreements without proper vetting, that may put us on the back-foot later on.
As far as developing Block 70 is concerned, the sub-systems are more or less mature. The only delay would be to actually integrate all of them into the airframe and certify the Block as a whole.
 
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Let me get this straight.

You are comparing USSR/China to India/US?

They were ideologically aligned and fighting the same imaginary enemies. They had shit load in common.

They even made a treaty in the 50s for that.

Tell me now how is India and US aligned? Tell me one instance where India is more than anything but a preferred customer. The moment India stops buying, we will be spanked so hard. The moment we act against their ideology, we will be dropped.

So tell me, what do you define that relation?

What’s the word you looking for? Tired of Indians deluding themselves thinking they suddenly become equals to the west.

You are an army man. Expect better from you.

He is talking about the on and off relationship that the USSR and China had. They even fought a border war in 1968. So, after that, the Soviets got closer to India while China cosied up to the US and Western Europe until Tiananmen.

Sino-Soviet split - Wikipedia

So we may now have to switch sides, like the Chinese did. All that Chinese talk of "black cat, white cat" happened after the Chinese became friendly with the US. That's why they opened up their economy to western investment.
 
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Honestly, now is the worst time imaginable to make a strategic deal with the USA. Under Trump's administration, American's foreign policy is headless and chaotic, blundering every which way. Are you sure you want to hop on that sinking ship?

Look at India's own geopolitical projects, like the International North South Transport Corridor. Notice how essential Iran is for it. Do I need to remind you how the USA along with their client states Israel and Saudi Arabia are currently gearing up for war with Iran? What do you think will they require India to do wrt. the INSTC once they get "strategic depth" in the Indian military and therefore a big lever to influence Indian foreign policy?

A strategic partnership with America is like selling your soul to the devil for a box of matches. And with Trump's America, when you open the box, you'll find wet toothpicks instead of matches.

Nothing will happen in the fighter front until after elections. Let's just hope for movement on 36 more Rafales by then.

The US will most likely be really busy with N Korea first. And it looks like Trump has been cutting Iran some slack since they are following through with the nuclear weapons deal. Trump won't be able to get anywhere with N Korea if he openly reneges on the deal with Iran.
 
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Good points . But I've yet to receive a satisfactory answer to my query which I've been repeating since PDF , Older Forum and now here . Beginning say 2010 ( +/- 5 years ) up until 2025 we would have retired some 400 odd planes - that's some 20 squadrons of MiG 21 / 23 / 27 apart from a few Jaguars .

Where are the nos going to come from ? Assuming we don't need an identical no as replacements , where will the rest of it come from ? We are assuming the Mk1a will be on schedule . That's still 83 odd FA. There's no news on whether we'd go beyond the 325 MKI ( given recent additions to the order book ) . We are about to procure some Jaguars from France whose role is yet to be determined .

Its not as if we want to enhance our numbers with more MiG 29 or Mirage 2k too.

I've yet to receive a satisfactory answer to my query .

36 more MKI. Some are saying they may push it to 54. 36 Rafale. 123 LCA. 36 more Rafale. That's the best we can manage by 2025. That's 200-250 jets. We will be retiring 200-250 jets by then, not counting attrition of other jets. So this won't take us to 42 squadrons, but we will maintain 34-36 squadrons by 2025 with the above orders.
 
Good points . But I've yet to receive a satisfactory answer to my query which I've been repeating since PDF , Older Forum and now here . Beginning say 2010 ( +/- 5 years ) up until 2025 we would have retired some 400 odd planes - that's some 20 squadrons of MiG 21 / 23 / 27 apart from a few Jaguars .

Where are the nos going to come from ? Assuming we don't need an identical no as replacements , where will the rest of it come from ? We are assuming the Mk1a will be on schedule . That's still 83 odd FA. There's no news on whether we'd go beyond the 325 MKI ( given recent additions to the order book ) . We are about to procure some Jaguars from France whose role is yet to be determined .

Its not as if we want to enhance our numbers with more MiG 29 or Mirage 2k too.

I've yet to receive a satisfactory answer to my query .

We don't just need plane for plane replacement, we actually need to have a net gain. I understand there is a line of thinking that because aircraft nowadays are so much more capable, and there are assets like AWACS and tankers, you need less aircraft to achieve the same objectives. And for some countries, this sort of thinking would be acceptable.

But India doesn't have that luxury. We have a dual front collusive threat from Pakistan and China. And to handle that, we need a larger air force than we currently have, and we need those numbers to consist of more capable aircraft than we currently have. To that end, Rafales are urgently needed, and LCA's are urgently needed to make up the MiG's numbers.

The only problem now, is how to solve the problem Parikrama had brought up earlier about the Sukhoi not being an ideal FWD base fighter. I guess between that problem, and the perpetually delayed LCA, there's the need for an SE MMRCA. And if we're getting an SE MMRCA it's almost certainly going to be the F-16, no matter how much everyone dislikes it.
 
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Chatters confirm the prime agenda for the meeting to include

120 approx deal + 50 follow on - 10 squadrons approx
G2G route


Stiff resistance from IAF and favouring Rafale.

It's PMO who is pushing for this deal owing to the letter gone out inviting LM to India for a MII Project

No clarity on any tangible technology for DRDO or private entity as of now.

It's fight till the end now

@Abingdonboy @halloweene @Hellfire @Parthu @Picdelamirand-oil @Bon Plan @randomradio @Nick @Ankit Kumar @GuardianRED @Ashwin @nair @Milspec @Tarun @all others
If deal sie is around 170 planes in total we are talking around $24Bn and more for all the setup and customizations and weapons + localisation aspects.

It will come with a serious dent in some other program procurements.

Rafale requirements are pegged at minimum 150+ IAF under next MII and further 90 for Marines. Thats a over a 12-15+ year production plan

I believe if there is a scope of USA government subsiding the F16s, maybe then its easier for them. Or else it looks difficult.

Certainly, i don't see HAL getting more orders with such a large money outflow. In a way I see F16 deal making sure we get at best 20-40 LCA Mk2 for IAF or move towards something else completely. And a distinct possibility remains if HAL cant meet timelines Mk1A itself will face curtailment.

The best way was to look at LM for NMRH. Use French help via Rafale fleet ordering under MII and build up LCA at least 200 among different marks and batch upgrade them with best in class stuff. Use Super MKI for all future and plan ahead fro AMCA to eventually replace both heavy and medium fighters at one go when Super MKi retires

I can't believe what i am reading,looks like everybody in PMO and MOD has lost their mind, their is no sense , nothing in this deal. 10 squadrans ,even Japan a pure American vassal haven't that much F 2s
 
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The aviation arm of the Indian Navy will double its aircraft fleet in the coming decade to nearly 500, Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Sunil Lanba said here today.

“We have a naval air wing, which has 238 aircraft at the moment. It has a combination of fighters, helicopters and maritime patrol aircraft, both-long range and short range. And we have a plan in place…in a decade’s time this Naval air wing will grow to close to 500 aircraft of different types,” Lanba said at a press conference.

Navy to double aircraft fleet to 500 in next decade: Sunil Lanba

General News, Questions And Discussions - Indian Navy

@Picdelamirand-oil @halloweene @randomradio @Hellfire @Ashwin @Abingdonboy @Nick @Parthu @Tarun @Arpit @Ashutosh @Arvind @Shashank @Levina @GuardianRED @all

First, open talk of the expansion of air wing. Finally, we are moving .. Rafale M, NMRH, Predator B, MPA, etc will be coming..,
 
The aviation arm of the Indian Navy will double its aircraft fleet in the coming decade to nearly 500, Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Sunil Lanba said here today.

“We have a naval air wing, which has 238 aircraft at the moment. It has a combination of fighters, helicopters and maritime patrol aircraft, both-long range and short range. And we have a plan in place…in a decade’s time this Naval air wing will grow to close to 500 aircraft of different types,” Lanba said at a press conference.

Navy to double aircraft fleet to 500 in next decade: Sunil Lanba

General News, Questions And Discussions - Indian Navy

@Picdelamirand-oil @halloweene @randomradio @Hellfire @Ashwin @Abingdonboy @Nick @Parthu @Tarun @Arpit @Ashutosh @Arvind @Shashank @Levina @GuardianRED @all

First, open talk of the expansion of air wing. Finally, we are moving .. Rafale M, NMRH, Predator B, MPA, etc will be coming..,

I strongly support having a mean, lean but state of the art navy. Our navy should not fall for the numbers but I would like to have them an edge on qualitative aspect of fighters they operate over IAF. I trust their leadership a ted more than IAF one.

I hope our navy will have the first hands on 5th gen fighters. 3 squads and we are a formidable force.
 
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The aviation arm of the Indian Navy will double its aircraft fleet in the coming decade to nearly 500, Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Sunil Lanba said here today.

“We have a naval air wing, which has 238 aircraft at the moment. It has a combination of fighters, helicopters and maritime patrol aircraft, both-long range and short range. And we have a plan in place…in a decade’s time this Naval air wing will grow to close to 500 aircraft of different types,” Lanba said at a press conference.

Navy to double aircraft fleet to 500 in next decade: Sunil Lanba

General News, Questions And Discussions - Indian Navy

@Picdelamirand-oil @halloweene @randomradio @Hellfire @Ashwin @Abingdonboy @Nick @Parthu @Tarun @Arpit @Ashutosh @Arvind @Shashank @Levina @GuardianRED @all

First, open talk of the expansion of air wing. Finally, we are moving .. Rafale M, NMRH, Predator B, MPA, etc will be coming..,

It's not the first time. They have been saying this for more than a decade now.
 
Chatter on Russian side summit update

Possible deals to be of
1. Fresh batch of Mi 17 V5 helos
2. Approx 300-400 new T-90MS
3. A big size deal (possible deals include 4 frigates or 2+ squad MKIs among other stuff)

All other deals need further discussion including ka226, SSN lease, S400 and Super MKI (as disclosed earlier)

An IGA will be signed soon followed by actual contract in next 6 months.
 
Chatter on Russian side summit update

Possible deals to be of
1. Fresh batch of Mi 17 V5 helos
2. Approx 300-400 new T-90MS
3. A big size deal (possible deals include 4 frigates or 2+ squad MKIs among other stuff)

All other deals need further discussion including ka226, SSN lease, S400 and Super MKI (as disclosed earlier)

An IGA will be signed soon followed by actual contract in next 6 months.

An IGA on all the products mentioned above or some of them ? Kindly clarify .
 
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Chatter on Russian side summit update

Possible deals to be of
1. Fresh batch of Mi 17 V5 helos
2. Approx 300-400 new T-90MS
3. A big size deal (possible deals include 4 frigates or 2+ squad MKIs among other stuff)

All other deals need further discussion including ka226, SSN lease, S400 and Super MKI (as disclosed earlier)

An IGA will be signed soon followed by actual contract in next 6 months.
Isnt been a year since the Deal for Ka226 has been signed?
 
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