Current production rate will ensure the 20 IOC MK-1 airframes are delivered by 2019 and 20 FOC Mk-1 by 2020 end.
The whole point of increasing prod.rate >16/year becomes irrelevant if HAL cannot complete Mk-1A development in time i.e. by 2020.
As we know, more LCA class jets are required. Atleast 12 sqns or more than 220 jets initially. Mk-1 variants make up 6 sqns, and the proposed SEF another 6 sqns. Mk-2 can start production only after the Mk-1 completes its production run, which can go upto 2026.
Let me tell you how it would happen.
Production rate of 16/year will only be achieved by 2019 when all 20 IOC Mk-1s are delivered and another yaer and a half to deliver the 20 FOC Mk-1s. To deliver another 83 jets, it'll take HAL another 5+ years, i.e. 2026 end. By this time, theoretically, Mk-2 should be ready for production. Now, the question is, can the Mk-2 complete its development in time? Let's assume they do.
So, it'll take HAL another 7+ years to complete production run of 6 sqn of Mk-2 with the same prod.rate or by 2034. At the same time, if we go for F-16 instead of Mk-2, they can start the production under MII and deliveries can start from 2022 (instead of 2027 as in the case of Mk-2) assuming the contract can be signed in 2019. But granted, the initial rate from the MII plant would be low, but it'll be ramped up to 24/year to complete the production run of 6 sqn in 8 years, i.e. estimated 2029 (instead of 2034 as in the case of Mk-2).
Now, the total requirement is around 400 fighters, i.e. 9 to 10 more squadrons. The logical think to do to achieve the required number before 2035 is to have two production line churning out both Mk-2s and F-16s. Since, more Mk-2 are being ordered, prod.rate can be increased to 24/year from 2027.
i.e. Mk-2 production from 2027 at 24/year total of 6 sqns or 120 jets in 5 years or by 2032.
Either order another 4 sqn of Mk-2 or 72 jets at 24/year from 2032 to 2035 (120+80=200 or 10 sqns in total)
or
order a second lot of F-16s, production from 2030 at 24/year total of 4 sqns or 72 jets in 3 years or by 2033 (108+72=180 or 10 sqns in total)
So, you have a total of 400+ SE jets (Mk-1 x20, Mk-1A x83, Mk-2 x200, F-16 x108) by the year 2035 or 400+ SE jets (Mk-1 x20, Mk-1A x83, Mk-2 x120, F-16 x180) by the year 2033
Now, instead of going for the F-16, we can order 15 sqn of Mk-2 or 300 jets, production starting from 2027 at 24/year, will be completed in 12+ years or mid 2039.
Also, to note, these 400 fighters are over and above the need for more Twin-engined MRCA. IAF still need 8 sqns or 144 jets in this category. This will be filled by another 36 fly away + 108 MII Rafales in addition to the 36 already ordered. More Rafales would have been ordered if it weren't for the procurement of this new foreign SEF.
Don't we need to sign foundational agreements before signing F16 deal..
Also LM have to develop the Block 70IN variant ..1-2 years enough for that ?