IAF Chronicles - A side view of whats going on behind the closed doors in New Delhi

[Aashish]

Chatters confirm the prime agenda for the meeting to include

120 approx deal + 50 follow on - 10 squadrons approx
G2G route

Stiff resistance from IAF and favouring Rafale.

It's PMO who is pushing for this deal owing to the letter gone out inviting LM to India for a MII Project

No clarity on any tangible technology for DRDO or private entity as of now.

It's fight till the end now

@Abingdonboy @halloweene @Hellfire @Parthu @Picdelamirand-oil @Bon Plan @randomradio @Nick @Ankit Kumar @GuardianRED @Ashwin @nair @Milspec @Tarun @all others

 

[Nick]

Chatters confirm the prime agenda for the meeting to include

120 approx deal + 50 follow on - 10 squadrons approx
G2G route

Stiff resistance from IAF and favouring Rafale.

It's PMO who is pushing for this deal owing to the letter gone out inviting LM to India for a MII Project

No clarity on any tangible technology for DRDO or private entity as of now.

It's fight till the end now

@Abingdonboy @halloweene @Hellfire @Parthu @Picdelamirand-oil @Bon Plan @randomradio @Nick @Ankit Kumar @GuardianRED @Ashwin @nair @Milspec @Tarun @all others

I've previously said that F-16s will come no matter what.

Replacing the F-16 deal with an NMRH+UAV deal should be more than enough to satisfy the US to move forward with the alliance, in terms of money being spent on US weaponry. But the problem is that the US still won't have any strategic depth in our military planning with such support systems, which is what they're aiming for, and why they're pressuring the GoI.

They know any offer for export potential is a farce and that India wont be the sole provider of spares to the global supply chain, thereby negating the argument that PAF's fleet will be dependent on us. The only advantage, then, is technology transfer and advanced munitions. The latter part may be possible as we're now signatories to MTCR & Wassengar (the timing does intrigue me), but ToT for engines, radar, mission computers and EW systems will be withheld as we understand from LM statement.
Then what else are they offering? A 50 year old airframe? which won't give any tangible benefits to our growing industries.

But again, what choice do we have! Even ramping up Tejas production won't fill the required numbers in time. We're in a Catch 22 situation.

 

[Ironhide]

Chatters confirm the prime agenda for the meeting to include

120 approx deal + 50 follow on - 10 squadrons approx
G2G route

Stiff resistance from IAF and favouring Rafale.

It's PMO who is pushing for this deal owing to the letter gone out inviting LM to India for a MII Project

No clarity on any tangible technology for DRDO or private entity as of now.

It's fight till the end now

@Abingdonboy @halloweene @Hellfire @Parthu @Picdelamirand-oil @Bon Plan @randomradio @Nick @Ankit Kumar @GuardianRED @Ashwin @nair @Milspec @Tarun @all others

India is on the way of becoming another USA vassal state, idiotic decision of becoming one now whereas it would at-least have made some sense in becoming USA vassal state and capitalistic economy few decades back when we were in communistic-Socialistic romanticism.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Chatters confirm the prime agenda for the meeting to include

120 approx deal + 50 follow on - 10 squadrons approx
G2G route

Stiff resistance from IAF and favouring Rafale.

It's PMO who is pushing for this deal owing to the letter gone out inviting LM to India for a MII Project

No clarity on any tangible technology for DRDO or private entity as of now.

It's fight till the end now

@Abingdonboy @halloweene @Hellfire @Parthu @Picdelamirand-oil @Bon Plan @randomradio @Nick @Ankit Kumar @GuardianRED @Ashwin @nair @Milspec @Tarun @all others

This is never going to happen.

Rafale+LCA are only fighters that IAF will be ordering over next 7 years (maybe a few more MKIs). If Modi really wants to see a CONgres govt in 2019 then this is the way to do it (F16s). Would be an impossible move to justify even to his own base.


Can’t just order F16s off the shelf like that, they haven’t even been trailed in India since they were rejected under MMRCA, this would be a scandal of epic proportions that would make Bofors looks like trivial in comparison. Day after F16 deal was signed IAF would start leaking saying how inferior the plane is and how over priced it is, opposition would cry foul and DRDO/HAL would follow suit (F16 will kill LCA Mk1/1a/2 and maybe even AMCA).


The age of F16 is over, window was open 10 years ago maybe even 2 years ago but now LCA is in production, Mk1A is advancing and Rafales are on the horizon it’s impossible to justify F16s especially at the costs the US are demanding. LM hasn’t even conceded to Indian requirements for JV


Worst part is He has installed a puppet as DM, absolutely no leadership coming out of MOD now just PMO rubbing the show. Am sure Parrikar would’ve resisted this nonsense



$47 BILLION USD worth of modernisation deals pending (NUH, NMRH, AARs, FICV, etc so ) and THIS is what modi is choosing to focus on- an overpriced almost obsolete fighter that will decimate local industry, come with no TOT and will be off limits to anyone but OEM techs to work on? Not to mention will require India singing a whole manner of “foundational” and end user agreements.

 

[Abingdonboy]

I've previously said that F-16s will come no matter what.

Replacing the F-16 deal with an NMRH+UAV deal should be more than enough to satisfy the US to move forward with the alliance, in terms of money being spent on US weaponry. But the problem is that the US still won't have any strategic depth in our military planning with such support systems, which is what they're aiming for, and why they're pressuring the GoI.

They know any offer for export potential is a farce and that India wont be the sole provider of spares to the global supply chain, thereby negating the argument that PAF's fleet will be dependent on us. The only advantage, then, is technology transfer and advanced munitions. The latter part may be possible as we're now signatories to MTCR & Wassengar (the timing does intrigue me), but ToT for engines, radar, mission computers and EW systems will be withheld as we understand from LM statement.
Then what else are they offering? A 50 year old airframe? which won't give any tangible benefits to our growing industries.

But again, what choice do we have! Even ramping up Tejas production won't fill the required numbers in time. We're in a Catch 22 situation.

LCA production can be ramped up to beyond 25/year if HAL get the orders. PMO isn’t even giving them the chance to show what they can do, instead committing to a pitiful 83+20 assuring production can’t be extended beyond 16/year.

How is foreign SEF a solution to this problem when it will be 5-6++ years before first bird lands in India?

 

[Paro]

So here is the rise and fall of Modi. I expected him to last longer. He is not just signing his death certificate but bjps scam free track record with the biggest military scam in the history of this country.

I always wondered how India with its headless leaders managed to run an independent foreign policy of non-alignment, looks like we are not so non-aligned anymore.

 

[anant_s]

@Aashish
Brother what are you hearing on front of IAC 2 and its propulsion?
Also has government agreed to building a larger AC immediately after IAC 1 leaves CSL for Eastern command?

 

[_Anonymous_]

Not vassal, please

Pretty strong and, sorry to say, irrational statement. Think hard on this one and realise what is happening.

Hint: History of USSR and China.

Too little and a bit too late . India and the US have yet to strike an agreement on where do they plan to take this relationship to. There's too much of mutual suspicion about each others gameplan .Arguably it's been a problem with India right since our birth as a nation . Allow me my 2 cents of opinion /digression .

Under Nehru , the armed forces were emaciated , partly given the suspicions of the civilian leadership of the armed forces then given that most newly independent countries , including those in our neighbourhood succumbed to army takeovers . Add to that our meagre resources and the fact that the author and executor of our foreign policy began and ended with Nehru and his left / socialist cabal with the likes of V.K.Krishna Menon figuring prominently .

The import of Nehruvian foreign policy was non alignment and a degree of appeasement of our principal rivals in our part of the world namely Pakistan and China . While the whole history of the decade between 1948-60 is too parlous to get into ( its been well documented too .Whether that has resulted in good scholarly analysis is another matter ) , I will restrict myself to some salient features that Nehru's foreign policy produced - the Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai phase begining with the Bandung Conference ( predecessor of NAM ) , the Panchsheel Agreement and the IWT up until the 60's.

1959 changed all that . With the Dalai Lama crossing over , the Chinese couldn't be placated . Instead of either re inforcing our armed forces they were further emaciated ( witness the resignation of Gen Thimayya ) . Nor did Nehru display the sagacity of co opting the US led anti communism alliance ( news of the fallout and the degree of disagreement between the PRC and the then USSR hadn't percolated into South Block and if it did , Nehru certainly didn't leverage it to his advantage) . On the contrary while the Chinese then used bellicosity and personal epithets against Nehru ( running dog of western capitalism ,etc.) it further played on Nehru's psychology to distance himself from the west on matters relating to security while graciously accepting any and every developmental aid that came his way . All this while China was itself launching preparations for an armed invasion across the Himalayas in 1959 itself . ( Notice the parallels to our current situation Vis a Vis the Chinese and their reaction to the Doklam stand off ) Nehru himself was conflicted . On the one hand he genuinely didn't want to get pulled into a conflict with either Pakistan or China but on the other hand he had no qualms about allowing the CIA and other western intelligence agencies from propping up an armed insurrection in Tibet apart from surveilling China with US assistance , with appeasement of both Pakistan and China continuing unabashedly .

The stage was set for 1962. Nehru didn't do himself or India any favours . In this game of diamond hard realpolitik he came out a loser . As an aside , his failures and misjudgement were hidden under the narrative of a grand Chinese betrayal greatly assisted by the fact that he conveniently went on to have a stroke earning much sympathy thus absolving himself of any complicity in the 1962 debacle in the eyes of his countrymen and the world at large .

How different is our current geo political situation Vis a Vis China given certain eerie parallels is then the question to begs to be asked ? We are still pussy footing. Neither are we about to accept the overlordship of China in Asia nor are we committing ourselves adequately to the US overtures. To top it all our security establishment is still short on resources to aggressively prosecute it's war on a single front leave alone two fronts . This leaves us to fall back on our N arsenal to make up for any exigency. We seem to foreclosed that option too with our NFU. The Chinese seem to think we lack the political will to use N weapons which is why they will stick to localising the conflict using their salami slicing tactics , nibbling up the border areas .I haven't even touched on the Pakistanis or their unholy nexus with China .

We seem to be in reaction mode on both fronts .

 

[A Person]

Honestly, now is the worst time imaginable to make a strategic deal with the USA. Under Trump's administration, American's foreign policy is headless and chaotic, blundering every which way. Are you sure you want to hop on that sinking ship?

Look at India's own geopolitical projects, like the International North South Transport Corridor. Notice how essential Iran is for it. Do I need to remind you how the USA along with their client states Israel and Saudi Arabia are currently gearing up for war with Iran? What do you think will they require India to do wrt. the INSTC once they get "strategic depth" in the Indian military and therefore a big lever to influence Indian foreign policy?

A strategic partnership with America is like selling your soul to the devil for a box of matches. And with Trump's America, when you open the box, you'll find wet toothpicks instead of matches.

 

[Nick]

LCA production can be ramped up to beyond 25/year if HAL get the orders. PMO isn’t even giving them the chance to show what they can do, instead committing to a pitiful 83+20 assuring production can’t be extended beyond 16/year.

How is foreign SEF a solution to this problem when it will be 5-6++ years before first bird lands in India?

Current production rate will ensure the 20 IOC MK-1 airframes are delivered by 2019 and 20 FOC Mk-1 by 2020 end.

The whole point of increasing prod.rate >16/year becomes irrelevant if HAL cannot complete Mk-1A development in time i.e. by 2020.
As we know, more LCA class jets are required. Atleast 12 sqns or more than 220 jets initially. Mk-1 variants make up 6 sqns, and the proposed SEF another 6 sqns. Mk-2 can start production only after the Mk-1 completes its production run, which can go upto 2026.

Let me tell you how it would happen.

Production rate of 16/year will only be achieved by 2019 when all 20 IOC Mk-1s are delivered and another yaer and a half to deliver the 20 FOC Mk-1s. To deliver another 83 jets, it'll take HAL another 5+ years, i.e. 2026 end. By this time, theoretically, Mk-2 should be ready for production. Now, the question is, can the Mk-2 complete its development in time? Let's assume they do.

So, it'll take HAL another 7+ years to complete production run of 6 sqn of Mk-2 with the same prod.rate or by 2034. At the same time, if we go for F-16 instead of Mk-2, they can start the production under MII and deliveries can start from 2022 (instead of 2027 as in the case of Mk-2) assuming the contract can be signed in 2019. But granted, the initial rate from the MII plant would be low, but it'll be ramped up to 24/year to complete the production run of 6 sqn in 8 years, i.e. estimated 2029 (instead of 2034 as in the case of Mk-2).

Now, the total requirement is around 400 fighters, i.e. 9 to 10 more squadrons. The logical think to do to achieve the required number before 2035 is to have two production line churning out both Mk-2s and F-16s. Since, more Mk-2 are being ordered, prod.rate can be increased to 24/year from 2027.

i.e. Mk-2 production from 2027 at 24/year total of 6 sqns or 120 jets in 5 years or by 2032.
Either order another 4 sqn of Mk-2 or 72 jets at 24/year from 2032 to 2035 (120+80=200 or 10 sqns in total)
or
order a second lot of F-16s, production from 2030 at 24/year total of 4 sqns or 72 jets in 3 years or by 2033 (108+72=180 or 10 sqns in total)

So, you have a total of 400+ SE jets (Mk-1 x20, Mk-1A x83, Mk-2 x200, F-16 x108) by the year 2035 or 400+ SE jets (Mk-1 x20, Mk-1A x83, Mk-2 x120, F-16 x180) by the year 2033



Now, instead of going for the F-16, we can order 15 sqn of Mk-2 or 300 jets, production starting from 2027 at 24/year, will be completed in 12+ years or mid 2039.


Also, to note, these 400 fighters are over and above the need for more Twin-engined MRCA. IAF still need 8 sqns or 144 jets in this category. This will be filled by another 36 fly away + 108 MII Rafales in addition to the 36 already ordered. More Rafales would have been ordered if it weren't for the procurement of this new foreign SEF.

 

[Aashish]

@Aashish
Brother what are you hearing on front of IAC 2 and its propulsion?
Also has government agreed to building a larger AC immediately after IAC 1 leaves CSL for Eastern command?

There was a talk about a small incremental tonnage in IAC1 follow-on for CSL. Regarding that, we were supposed to procure some newer types of equipment and some machinery once present IAC1 goes for sea trials.


On IAC2 , the plan is for a hybrid deck (both stobar and catobar) carrier with N propulsion via the French route. its suppose to be powered by 2 N reactors and agreement for the same is under process (linked to Macron visit)

About the Naval chief words of conventional powered IAC2, i certainly believe it will be impractical. A ACC will have to also consider an additional a fleet replenishment and fuel replenishment cover always and with the size of ship being closer to 65k tonnes, this option is like a sitting duck. To immobilise the ACC, might as well first take out the replenishment ships and then the ACC itself.

For IOR perspective, a carrier of that size needs an N option as the cheapest opex overtime possibility. Anything conventional is the most inappropriate option for CATOBAR ops.

 

[_Anonymous_]

LCA production can be ramped up to beyond 25/year if HAL get the orders. PMO isn’t even giving them the chance to show what they can do, instead committing to a pitiful 83+20 assuring production can’t be extended beyond 16/year.

How is foreign SEF a solution to this problem when it will be 5-6++ years before first bird lands in India?

Good points . But I've yet to receive a satisfactory answer to my query which I've been repeating since PDF , Older Forum and now here . Beginning say 2010 ( +/- 5 years ) up until 2025 we would have retired some 400 odd planes - that's some 20 squadrons of MiG 21 / 23 / 27 apart from a few Jaguars .

Where are the nos going to come from ? Assuming we don't need an identical no as replacements , where will the rest of it come from ? We are assuming the Mk1a will be on schedule . That's still 83 odd FA. There's no news on whether we'd go beyond the 325 MKI ( given recent additions to the order book ) . We are about to procure some Jaguars from France whose role is yet to be determined .

Its not as if we want to enhance our numbers with more MiG 29 or Mirage 2k too.

I've yet to receive a satisfactory answer to my query .

 

[anant_s]

its suppose to be powered by 2 N reactors

Yes, atleast 2
The actual number could be 4, if second reactor refitment time is to be kept 15 years or more.

agreement for the same is under process (linked to Macron visit)

This is interesting!
I'm not sure if France will provide only reactor or complete Nuclear Steam Supply cycle.

For IOR perspective, a carrier of that size needs an N option as the cheapest opex overtime possibility. Anything conventional is the most inappropriate option for CATOBAR ops.

Going back to EMALS installation (as conditionally agreed by POTUS), conventional propulsion would be really poor move.

 

[Bharath]

about PMO pushing for USA tilt:

What was our experience with INS Vikramaditya (adm gorky) from Russia?
what was our experience with SU-MKI purchase? - we are still only license producing it with major dependence on Russia

Until Recently, Russia has been our strongest ally, but they are slowly moving towards China - our main adversary.

in a state of the world where Russia and China are getting into "anti-US" mode together, what is the best way to counter China? please note we DO NOT have the technological advancements nor the manufacturing might to compete with China for foreseeable future. our hope would be Russia or USA until we become self reliant. These are the only two that can help us counter the Chinese threat.

with Russia strongly in the Chinese corner (OBOR supported by Russia - going through the POK - can you imagine if someone ask russia to let crimea/ukraine supported by India and India asking Russia to fall in line and support that?)

now we have come to a place where we need to counter balance China and Pakistan combo without much support of Russia vis-a-vis China and obviously Pakistan being the pet poodle of China, wont let Russia harm Pakistan.

As much as I dislike the USA's policies towards India until recently, they are the only ones with the capability to make India into a better/industrialized nation to counter China.

Of course USA will be in this for their own benefit - and so should India (for its own benefit).

question is - China has already inducted a 5th gen fighter. what is the best way to get next gen technology + become part of the global supply chain of such technology + leverage in the world bodies?
Answer is - USA

my two cents.

 

[Sathya]

Tata, GE Aviation to make aircraft engine components in India


Please correlate.

Recall C-17s were brought in because of shift to US under UPA. Atleast policy is being continued.

Did MTCR & wassenaar arrangement required these steps from us ?

Like the C17 with 123 nuclear deal.

Do we have the purse to fund Rafale - LCA mk1A, F16 - LCA MK2, Simultaneously? And Super Su upgrade too ?

 

[Sathya]

about PMO pushing for USA tilt:

What was our experience with INS Vikramaditya (adm gorky) from Russia?
what was our experience with SU-MKI purchase? - we are still only license producing it with major dependence on Russia

Until Recently, Russia has been our strongest ally, but they are slowly moving towards China - our main adversary.

in a state of the world where Russia and China are getting into "anti-US" mode together, what is the best way to counter China? please note we DO NOT have the technological advancements nor the manufacturing might to compete with China for foreseeable future. our hope would be Russia or USA until we become self reliant. These are the only two that can help us counter the Chinese threat.

with Russia strongly in the Chinese corner (OBOR supported by Russia - going through the POK - can you imagine if someone ask russia to let crimea/ukraine supported by India and India asking Russia to fall in line and support that?)

now we have come to a place where we need to counter balance China and Pakistan combo without much support of Russia vis-a-vis China and obviously Pakistan being the pet poodle of China, wont let Russia harm Pakistan.

As much as I dislike the USA's policies towards India until recently, they are the only ones with the capability to make India into a better/industrialized nation to counter China.

Of course USA will be in this for their own benefit - and so should India (for its own benefit).

question is - China has already inducted a 5th gen fighter. what is the best way to get next gen technology + become part of the global supply chain of such technology + leverage in the world bodies?
Answer is - USA

my two cents.

USA might share info s , sell weapons , I doubt they can do anything more.
Japan and South Korea still build their own despite being best buddies.

 

[Sathya]

@Aashish

Assuming F16 deal went through, what is the best estimate of Rafale numbers we ll buy including naval deal ?

 

[Aashish]

@Aashish

Assuming F16 deal went through, what is the best estimate of Rafale numbers we ll buy including naval deal ?

If deal sie is around 170 planes in total we are talking around $24Bn and more for all the setup and customizations and weapons + localisation aspects.

It will come with a serious dent in some other program procurements.

Rafale requirements are pegged at minimum 150+ IAF under next MII and further 90 for Marines. Thats a over a 12-15+ year production plan

I believe if there is a scope of USA government subsiding the F16s, maybe then its easier for them. Or else it looks difficult.

Certainly, i don't see HAL getting more orders with such a large money outflow. In a way I see F16 deal making sure we get at best 20-40 LCA Mk2 for IAF or move towards something else completely. And a distinct possibility remains if HAL cant meet timelines Mk1A itself will face curtailment.

The best way was to look at LM for NMRH. Use French help via Rafale fleet ordering under MII and build up LCA at least 200 among different marks and batch upgrade them with best in class stuff. Use Super MKI for all future and plan ahead fro AMCA to eventually replace both heavy and medium fighters at one go when Super MKi retires

 

[Paro]

@Aashish why is PMO in such a hurry? wouldn't it be a political suicide to sign the deal before the elections in 2019?

 

[A Person]

question is - China has already inducted a 5th gen fighter. what is the best way to get next gen technology + become part of the global supply chain of such technology + leverage in the world bodies?
Answer is - USA

The USA never give anything unless it benefits them more. You're not going to get next gen technologies from them. The best case scenario is that you'll get to contribute with what you already know to a project, and even then you'd have to undercut your competition from other hopeful countries dreaming that they will be the ones to provide rivets for the F-35 of the entire world.

America doesn't need India to have a powerful defense industry and mastery over key technologies; they just need India to align itself on US foreign policies. Perhaps send troops to help attack Iran. Always keep one thing in mind: the USA never keep their promises when they can afford not to.