India - Pakistan Standoff 2019
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whether f-16 was shot down or not is debatable as we dont have materialistic evidence available .Whatever you are smoking is strong stuff
It's the same smoke trail, as the video from Pakistani side. This one is recorded from Indian side as evident from the language.
But there was certainly AMRAAM missile used and whose debris recovered.
Now that brings up interesting scenarios,
1) The AMRAAM was fired from F-16 , in all possibilities Pakistan will claim that it was used in self defence.
2) AMRAAM has been integrated with JF-17 , most of the ppl might disagree with it as it is not technically feasible to do so. But who knows there might be hacks . Given that Pakistan bought 500 missiles there is no point in depending on F-16 alone(sanctions , spare parts?), as a customer there will be some effort to get it working on other platforms as well. In which case it brings our dear old China into equation. US might not be pleased with such scenario.
AMRAAM integration onto JF17 is improbable. Intel is quite good on such matters. It is not as if they will induct a weapon system without us having an idea about it. It has never happened yet.
As for F-16, the precise reason why there is no F-16 'shot down' is because they are barred to be used in aggressive roles. We have ample ELINT to ascertain that not only was F-16 involved but also that one was locked and shot down.
Extremely unlikely. Hacking into the integration code would compromise the ITARs (and end user agreements) at highest level (and expose the logic to the ITAR kill code US would have hard coded in relevant parts of the EEPROM array (the missile's BIOS one can say) - I can confirm this stuff exists but I cannot disclose more).
Pakistan (as silly and desperate as they can be) would not attempt that (by say bringing in Chinese engineers etc)....because the risk (given what they invest and rely on w.r.t F-16 and its US hardware+software) is simply too high to them by such an action....and they would also have been found out in short order during the US weapons checks.
to my info most likely there were two PAF aircrafts at med altitude playing bait, while three PAF A/c's at high altitude loiter were waiting for the ambush. On Indian side, two mig21's were doing a low altitude interception of the bait while they were being locked by three High Alt MKI CAP.
Bisons have the ability to work well with either MKI's or Mig29's playing low alt interceptors while MKI/Mig29's run Air Sup CAP, what is perplexing is why MKI's did not engage R77AE or R27's across the LOC.
I was visiting F-16.net sometimes back yesterday. One very pertinent and troubling question which was asked by learned folks over there was how did India find the debris of AIM120C-5 so fast? They cited one lost AIM120C in Europe which entire NATO had searched for long but could not find it. So they had two hypothesis behind it:-
1. We lost one more A/C which fell into J&K. Or one more A/C was hit but it returned to base. Hence the missile remained lodged in the airframe or its debris fell near the A/C airframe debris.
2. They believe F-16 were there to escort the attackers and operated from behind 10 KM into LoC. PAF is trying to avoid pushing the second A/C angle because it will force them to admit they used F-16 against India.
3. India is only showing missile because otherwise we will have to admit losing one more A/C.
The other possiblity is that India has recovered the debris of F-16 and hence Missile debris with labels so much intact. Why the heck we are not making it public is beyond me then...
Ofcourse being American, they were convinced that PAF had to use F-16s because Chinese BVRs are worthless so only F-16 can be used to infiltrate and beat Indian CAP.
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It is certainly a improbable scenario but there are always surprises/exceptions.
Yes technically it might not be feasible, but just put yourself into Pakistan's shoes and think about it. If you buy 500 missiles , would you depend on only one platform which is prone to sanctions?
Of course there are inspections every now & then but does that mean they cant hide stuff. Pakistan very well can get stuff from the Arab friends as well. Second thing is that whatever the agreements national security/survival will be the foremost priority. Pakistan would very well take the risk as they already moving onto chinese weapons platform.
Its not just that... Till very recently CIA had a major presence in China. Media always focuses on Chinese infiltrating US but it works the other way round as well. If they found evidence of an integration activity in China, it would spell death knell to PAF F-16s.
F-16 is one of the most widely produced platform and several countries have excess of these birds for sale. It is easier to acquire these and get them serviced by Toor-Key than to attempt an integration of AIM120C. Besides, why will China do it for PAF? They will like them to buy more Chinese junk. They may keep 120C-5 sample, TYVM but will refuse integration.
Just showing a piece of AMRAAM with a contract number Pakistan never had means nothing. These items can be bought from eBay and Military memorabilia websites and dealers.
These are fake and made in China... US will be able to analyse the casing material for its composition and tell if they are real or fake pretty fast.
Plus, how the hell India can find the serial number of missiles in Pakistan's inventory? I am not talking about Contract number but serial number.
Lastly if that was the case, US will ask Pakistan the whereabouts of the missile and will be able to tell quite fast who is lying.
Not an expert by any stretch of imagination but
1. Flight data recorder of the 2nd MiG-21 will have the location / bearing / altitude etc when the aircraft dodged the AMRAAM. extrapolate the data you will have a rough idea of the area of possible ground impact .
2. Radar tracks from the entire episode should contain the tracks of the AMRAAM which will help to locate the general area of ground impact
3. Indians are extraordinarily lucky at finding wreckage of BVRAAMs
4. All of the above
Hmm.. certainly possible. The area was under AWACS surveillance as well, right?
Given that MIG-21 was chasing F-16 across the LOC in all probability if it was shot down it would have fallen in PoK, so chances of India having F-16 debris is very less.
yeah they can be bought, but not in 2 days when you need them immediately!
Not just that, the serial numbers cann't be found. Contract number are public information. Serial numbers? doubt it.
Plus there will be leftover or traces of propellant or high explosive used. A Neutron activation analysis will tell what they were. Will be easy for US to find who is lying... Doubt our military leadership is stupid enough to try anything like this. These chemicals are confidential and their composition is confidential. Not to mention it will contain tracers radioactive or chemical to detect them.
WC SV Munje.
He was involved in the very first crash where he turned off the FCS. His copilot, WC Nara, was killed.
The second was when the MKI apparently automatically ejected him and his copilot.
If you have an account there, tell them that the AMRAAM hit someone's house, and the owner called the police, who in turn called the army.
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