India - Pakistan Standoff 2019

[Hellfire]

A very insightful post here.

One of our previous weakness, if we can call it that, has been that after every successful offensive we dig in and shift onto the defensive, awaiting their strike/riposte. That fundamentally hands over the initiative over to the enemy: They get to choose their timing and location of retaliation. That happened right after Balakot strikes: We just shifted onto the defensive without any prompting, ensuring that the enemy was perfectly free to plan own offensive without worrying about potential attack from our side.

That cannot be allowed to continue: It is imperative that we hold the initiative at all times, if necessary, mounting supporting offensives of own right after a major offensive, if nothing, then just to keep the pressure on and tie down forces/resources that could be used to support the offensive. A truely aggressive fighting force, like the Israeli AF would have mounted relentless provocations after the strike to tie down PAF air assets and Air HQ, putting them on the backfoot, worried about any further IsAF offensive, in effect establishing and dominating the battlespace.

Sir.

For the bold, if I may, the attempt has been towards creating a situation that can be appropriately be exploited for further necessary action. However, the opposition has been tad uncooperative insofar these attempts are concerned.

Perhaps, I daresay, this tendency of theirs to not cooperate in any field is the root of our troubles.

 

[Hellfire]

You know, sir, this is probably why they call you "economical". Just my two cents.

Sir.

It means precisely what you understood it to mean - the opposition was trying to do a 'show of force' on our soldiers on the LC, who are actually employing the said force on their soldiers. IAF was rather offended at not being invited to play the game.

If you notice, a single aircraft appears to have moved towards the LC (as I can make out of the contrails) and made a sharp turn thereafter, that was a dare for the other side. Truly a demoralized force!!!

 

[BlackOpsIndia]

Did you guys notice that the Pak Minister who threatened us saying that their be no sound of Bells in temples has suddenly gone underground. Not a single word from him.

Oh Shekhu is just another Sakshi Maharaj of Pakistan, never mind him, he is first to run as things get heated, that little troll is so scared that when Pakistan was doing Nuclear test he left Pakistan even after being a minister so as not to be targeted by sanctions from US, although he barely had anything to be sanctioned even in Pakistan, just the thought of US sniffing around made him wet his pants. Never take him seriously sir.

 

[Star Wars]

There is SM chatter that HM targets within PoK has been hit quiet hard over the last few days. Which is what forced Syed Salahuddin to make a video on it and blame Pakistan for not protecting them.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Oh Shekhu is just another Sakshi Maharaj of Pakistan, never mind him, he is first to run as things get heated, that little troll is so scared that when Pakistan was doing Nuclear test he left Pakistan even after being a minister so as not to be targeted by sanctions from US, although he barely had anything to be sanctioned even in Pakistan, just the thought of US sniffing around made him wet his pants. Never take him seriously sir.

It's Sheikhchilli. Shekhu is a term of endearment.

 

[nair]

Sir.

It means precisely what you understood it to mean - the opposition was trying to do a 'show of force' on our soldiers on the LC, who are actually employing the said force on their soldiers. IAF was rather offended at not being invited to play the game.

If you notice, a single aircraft appears to have moved towards the LC (as I can make out of the contrails) and made a sharp turn thereafter, that was a dare for the other side. Truly a demoralized force!!!

Small correction Not one there were 2... Probably another source or location.... but both were taking a turn in.....

 

[lcafanboy]

Meanwhile in Pakistan

https://twitter.com/x/status/1113178736306925568

https://twitter.com/x/status/1113180329718812672

GAFOORA telling them to sleep peacefully

https://twitter.com/x/status/1113183149104795653

 

[vstol Jockey]

Small correction Not one there were 2... Probably another source or location.... but both were taking a turn in.....

They seem to be testing us and baiting us. But have no heart for a fight. The moment you fly towards J&K and reach Punjab border from anywhere in India, you have to contact "Northern Control". This is somewhere above Patnitop area and this radar looks really deep in Pakistan from a height of over 14k feet. It covers an area right upto Afghan border and also nearly whole of Pak Punjab. It was this radar which first picked up all these fighters engaged in 27th Feb raid. It tracked them right from the time they got airborne. Within about 10 minutes the entire strike package and its intentions were clear to the Indian ADDC located in Punjab which controls the air defence of entire North India. The AWACs and additional fighters were launched to intercept this strike formation if they entered Indian air space.
The engagement between Wg. Cdr. Abhi and F-16 took place in this time when our other intercepters were still getting airborne. Their idea was to target brigade HQ in India and kill large number of officers and Jawans as a revenge for Balakot. Their choice of target and intentions are also a clear indicator of what actually happened in Balakot and how many casualties they suffered.
They also knew that only two SU-30MKIs were on station and they intended to take down atleast one of them. Their estimation was that these two SU-30MKI will rush into combat to be easily outnumbered and shot using BVRAAMs. But their plans got a big jolt when the Mig-21s from Udhampur and Awantipur suddenly arrived at the scene and the SU-30MKI pilots displayed a rare example of fighter flying. Su-30MKI pilots decided to stay in combat and wait for the best time to fight and also choose the most easy target till additional force arrived. Their decision to dodge AMRAAMs and not counter attack is perhaps the finest example the air forces all over the world can learn in such a situation. Most European/NATO forces will have to face such situations while fighting Russians and Chinese. Had it not been for those two SU-30MKI and Mig-21 pilots, the situation on 27th could have been a huge embrassment for us.

 

[nair]

They seem to be testing us and baiting us

I think its the other way around.....They are not taking our bait.... Land... Air.... Sea anyway you know....

Had it not been for those two SU-30MKI and Mig-21 pilots, the situation on 27th could have been a huge embrassment for us

You missed mirages in this analysis... Read by a retire pilot that the attempt of F16 was to keep mirages away from the scene

 

[Star Wars]

You missed mirages in this analysis... Read by a retire pilot that the attempt of F16 was to keep mirages away from the scene

I believe the Pair of Mirages were handling A pair of F-16s, JF-17s. That is what I notice from the Map he had made. Also found it interesting they were more wary of the M2k's and then Sukhoi's themselves.

 

[vstol Jockey]

I think its the other way around.....They are not taking our bait.... Land... Air.... Sea anyway you know....

My opinion is that they want to escalate it a bit more to involve the world in asking for a ceasefire. This is their only hope. This low level of engagement will really deplete them completely and no one will interfere in this low intensity conflict as they have not done in the past also. This will be considered routine stuff across LOC.

You missed mirages in this analysis... Read by a retire pilot that the attempt of F16 was to keep mirages away from the scene

I did not miss M2Ks but did not write about them as they were to the south and over Punjab. They were tracking the M-3/5 of PAF who were acting as bombers. The F-16s were tasked to take out SU-30MKIs. I have only confined my narrative to the absolute presence of mind and cool headedness shown by SU-30MKIs. Remember that AWACs were ordered after the strike was detected. had the AWAC been in air, the entire battle would have been controlled by AWAC and not by GCI officers from an ADDC.

 

[rockstarIN]

I think its the other way around.....They are not taking our bait.... Land... Air.... Sea anyway you know....



You missed mirages in this analysis... Read by a retire pilot that the attempt of F16 was to keep mirages away from the scene

I heard 4 JF 17s attempted to engage the M2000s in order to keep them away.

 

[vstol Jockey]

I heard 4 JF 17s attempted to engage the M2000s in order to keep them away.

Their aim was the Brigade and Batallion HQ and the F-16s were tasked to take out SU-30MKIs specifically.

 

[rockstarIN]

Their aim was the Brigade and Batallion HQ and the F-16s were tasked to take out SU-30MKIs specifically.

If the M2000s was tracking their M-3/5s, why did not they engage them and fire BVRs as they did drop the bombs.

Not to cross LoC ROE?

 

[Jaymax]

I did not miss M2Ks but did not write about them as they were to the south and over Punjab. They were tracking the M-3/5 of PAF who were acting as bombers. The F-16s were tasked to take out SU-30MKIs. I have only confined my narrative to the absolute presence of mind and cool headedness shown by SU-30MKIs. Remember that AWACs were ordered after the strike was detected. had the AWAC been in air, the entire battle would have been controlled by AWAC and not by GCI officers from an ADDC.

Was the strike deliberately launched when we did not have a radar aircraft airborne?

 

[vstol Jockey]

If the M2000s was tracking their M-3/5s, why did not they engage them and fire BVRs as they did drop the bombs.
Not to cross LoC ROE?

Yes the ROE was not to fire on aircraft flying in Pak airspace as IAF and GOI did not expect them to use PAF for attack.

Was the strike deliberately launched when we did not have a radar aircraft airborne?

It is very much possible that they waited for our AWACs to go off station before launching the strike. They may also have noted the pattern and schedule of operations of our AWACs. IAF probably followed a predictable scheduling pattern which resulted in this strike by PAF on 27th.

 

[nair]

I believe the Pair of Mirages were handling A pair of F-16s, JF-17s. That is what I notice from the Map he had made. Also found it interesting they were more wary of the M2k's and then Sukhoi's themselves.

The report what we have suggested that su 30 moved south from their location during the conflict... where as his analysis mentioned north west..... Another point is he himself being a mirage pilot there would be a certain bias (unknowingly)... As no one else mentioned the point he mentioned... Probably they wanted to ambush Su30 and was made the plan accordingly... Mirage would have put holes in the plan..... Most probably the script did not have mention of Mig21 which caused them a F solah.....

 

[nair]

I heard 4 JF 17s attempted to engage the M2000s in order to keep them away.

There was a detail analysis by IAF pilot which had some interesting details.... Posted here search few pages back

 

[vstol Jockey]

The report what we have suggested that su 30 moved south from their location during the conflict... where as his analysis mentioned north west..... Another point is he himself being a mirage pilot there would be a certain bias (unknowingly)... As no one else mentioned the point he mentioned... Probably they wanted to ambush Su30 and was made the plan accordingly... Mirage would have put holes in the plan..... Most probably the script did not have mention of Mig21 which caused them a F solah.....

They had probably worked out only Su-30MKI, M2K and MIg-29s but the sudden appearance of multiple Mig-21s foxed them and the even bigger problem was that they took off from the Kashmir Bowl which provides a natural terrain masking from ground based radars of PAF which are mostly at ground level.

 

[nair]

My opinion is that they want to escalate it a bit more to involve the world in asking for a ceasefire

They want to play victim card to international community while playing hero card to their fanboys......We are not interested in both.... last they can do as much as they want....

This low level of engagement will really deplete them completely and no one will interfere in this low insity conflict

Probably that's the plan....