India - Pakistan Standoff 2019

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_Anonymous_ said:
Have you been reading what I've written on this topic since the beginning. And I don't mean today but since the last two months and counting. Please don't jump in the midst of a conversation and derive your own conclusions.
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Then why are you quoting this
_Anonymous_ said:
in the event of another Pulwama type outrage and showing PA's impotence.
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this did not work and that is what I am saying.

You can't be that innocent that you believe Pakistan are not trying to do Pulwama again. When they are sending terrorist every day into India how can you be so sure another Pulwama won't happen. Other hand those pigs were ready to fight full scale war with us on 27th Feb.

The only conclusion is Pakistan will not surrender it's policy of terrorism. Because they know that even US follows such tactics. And when back channel talks with Americans happen with Pakistani counter part, Americans say, just don't be too loud, rest the field is yours.
 
_Anonymous_ said:
You're wrong. If tomm, we decide to target him on a/c of no action by the Pakistanis, we can do it and they can't complain.The world community wouldn't bother. That's the idea.
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You are right, India has demonstrated the same with Hafiz Saeed saab.

And do you seriously believe Masood Azhar is more important to our strategic goals than Indo-Iran relations or our opposition to BRI?
 
Arvind said:
You are right, India has demonstrated the same with Hafiz Saeed saab.
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Depends on who comes to power now!

Arvind said:
And do you seriously believe Masood Azhar is more important to our strategic goals than Indo-Iran relations or our opposition to BRI?
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The process for the proscription of MA is pending since 10 years.NDA merely continued the previous policies In this regard. In other words, it was initiated by the UPA. What were their calculations then? Coming to the other points you've raised, we still don't know what the actual compromises are?
 
_Anonymous_ said:
Depends on who comes to power now!
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Irrelevant. "Yahan har saakh pe ullu baitha hai, anjaame gulista kya hoga".

The process for the proscription of MA is pending since 10 years. NDA merely continued the previous policies In this regard. In other words, it was initiated by the UPA. What were their calculations then? Coming to the other points you've raised, we still don't know what the actual compromises are?
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The contention here is the cost of getting MA banned. The reporter suggested India compromised on its strategic areas like De-escalation at LoC, Indo -Iran relations and BRI opposition. Just to reiterate, I do not see MA banning as big an achievement to compromise on any of the said areas. If someone has done so, for political scoring, they be damned.
 
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Arvind said:
And do you seriously believe Masood Azhar is more important to our strategic goals than Indo-Iran relations or our opposition to BRI?
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1. As far as China goes, everything is transactional in nature. They removed technical hold this time around, we didn't say too much about BRI. Next time, we will be back with a vengeance.

2. Now Iran... Well, they have also played a transactional game with us. We discovered the whole of the gas field and they wanted to give it to China. So..... let them give us even more discount and we will figure out something with USA. Ofcourse, this is not the first time we are dealing with Iran and certainly not the last time. Let trump has his momentary triumph. We will come back afterwards.
 
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Shajida Khan said:
1. As far as China goes, everything is transactional in nature. They removed technical hold this time around, we didn't say too much about BRI. Next time, we will be back with a vengeance.

2. Now Iran... Well, they have also played a transactional game with us. We discovered the whole of the gas field and they wanted to give it to China. So..... let them give us even more discount and we will figure out something with USA. Ofcourse, this is not the first time we are dealing with Iran and certainly not the last time. Let trump has his momentary triumph. We will come back afterwards.
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@vstol_jockey said something about having Iran by its balls.
 
Shajida Khan said:
2. Now Iran... Well, they have also played a transactional game with us. We discovered the whole of the gas field and they wanted to give it to China. So..... let them give us even more discount and we will figure out something with USA. Ofcourse, this is not the first time we are dealing with Iran and certainly not the last time. Let trump has his momentary triumph. We will come back afterwards.
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So we have put Iran-India oil trade to zero and not ever a murmur on our part?? Is that not compromising strategic goals of India in Iran& beyond including Afgan/Central Asia, what about oil strategic security by diversification. Forget about losing cheap oil sources
Havent we recently bowed out of Venezuela & now Iran, giving in to pressure to USA. By giving in our independent relations with these countries & strategic autonomy to US bullying?
No matter if we underplay it or not, its not good for India long term security & strategic autonomy...
Even if Trump goes, USA will know what screws to tighten to made India dance, earlier all talk in their strategic circles was no matter what we do, India will continue to import oil, as we tried everything earlier & failed, not anymore.
 
_Anonymous_ said:
You think if there's another Pulwama, given the way we conducted the Balakote strikes giving Pakistan plausible deniability, anything else is possible? Those camps will be folded up in advance or shifted deep into FATA or Balochistan. What else will remain for us to target? Let me tag @Falcon and pick his brains here.

I don't think you've derived the right lessons then from the entire episode. The aim of the GoI under Modi is two fold - elimination of terrorists from Pakistani soil under the garb of non military pre emption, in the event of another Pulwama type outrage and showing PA's impotence.

The former was achieved. The optics was bad giving the PA plausible deniability. Hence the latter part wasn't completely achieved. I don't think this particular GoI, were it re elected and were it to face another Pulwama, will likely repeat the same mistake.
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Deniability was always the intent. The game is a bit larger, something @nair and I had discussed on the another forum on a CPEC thread.

It is not only addressing the threat emanating out of Pakistan but also Chinese activities in Pakistan. The larger strategic interests of India and US are aligned on this - hence, the rather confused picture one gets if one were to take a look from India's view alone, but would start making sense if all the activities having an effect on the region as a whole, were to be taken into consideration.

UAE, Saudi-Arabia and IMF funding in Pakistan is the leverage in the larger game being played out, where Pakistan is merely a pawn. Situation is evolving, let us see how it plays out.
 
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LoneWolfSandeep said:
So we have put Iran-India oil trade to zero and not ever a murmur on our part?? Is that not compromising strategic goals of India in Iran& beyond including Afgan/Central Asia, what about oil strategic security by diversification. Forget about losing cheap oil sources
Havent we recently bowed out of Venezuela & now Iran, giving in to pressure to USA. By giving in our independent relations with these countries & strategic autonomy to US bullying?
No matter if we underplay it or not, its not good for India long term security & strategic autonomy...
Even if Trump goes, USA will know what screws to tighten to made India dance, earlier all talk in their strategic circles was no matter what we do, India will continue to import oil, as we tried everything earlier & failed, not anymore.
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Actually, India is defying US on quite a few fronts. We are buying quite a bit of hardware from Russia (not just S-400). Subs and tanks as recent as 2019. That said, we are also avoiding any major trade conflict with USA all while running a large trade deficit in our favor.

So, it is going to be a back and forth dance. Balancing act. We will give something for sometime and take it back later.
 
Shajida Khan said:
Actually, India is defying US on quite a few fronts. We are buying quite a bit of hardware from Russia (not just S-400). Subs and tanks as recent as 2019. That said, we are also avoiding any major trade conflict with USA all while running a large trade deficit in our favor.
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These 464 tanks will not be imported from Russia but will be built at Avadi with kits from Russia. they will have nearly 60% Indian content.
 
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