Any data for the range of new long range missile bought locking on targets above their height?
India - Pakistan Standoff 2019
- Thread starter nair
- Start date
- Status
Any data for the range of new long range missile bought locking on targets above their height?
Those don't look real though.
Even then, that wasn't the target. The main target was the big hostel at the very top where terrorists sleep. The target in the image is simply an assembly hall which is empty at night. The hall is what Pakistan showed off to international journalists as well, but it wasn't attacked.
Here's the actual target with the holes in the sleeping quarters.
I see that the hair-splitting continues. Let me reiterate my personal views on the standoff.
1. Balakot Strikes:
IAF utilized diversion, terrain masking and a deeper base to create an element of surprise. IAF's Mirage-2000s popped up from behind the Pir Panjal range, ingressed ~9-10km across the LoC over Muzaffarabad sector and launched SPICE-2000 SOWs armed with 2000lbs general purpose munitions. PAF couldn't intercept, because 2x airborne CAPs were diverted to Lahore & Bahawalpur sectors to intercept the intended incursions there and no new airborne CAPs were available for interception. PAF was not cleared to go in hot pursuit.
There is conclusive evidence available that IAF missed. There is no damage to any structure in satellite imagery. There are no people or vehicles visible in post-strike imagery for moving dead-bodies. There are no repair efforts visible. There are no videos on SM of ambulances or any sort of other massive vehicle movement in Jaba/Bisian to signify any major event.
2. Operation Swift Retort:
PAF had contingency plans of responding to such an adventure, adopted probably after post-Mumbai IAF's 2x parallel incursions. A large amount of aircrafts went airborne around 0800, conducted IB-wide patrols and monitored different IAF CAPs. PAF utilized diversion and swarm tactics, and ingressed when there were the least amount of IAF assets in the Sunderbani-Rajouri sector.
2x Mirage-VPAs approached Sunderbani area from the South, launched 1x H-4 each at targets in Narian & Naushera from well within Pakistani airspace and bugged out. They were followed by 2x dual-seat Mirage-IIIDPs to guide H-4s using man-in-the-loop TV-guidance, alongwith 2x JF-17 escorts. 2x JF-17s approached Rajouri area from the West with 2x JF-17 escorts, launched 2x Mk-83 REKs each at targets in Poonch & Rajouri without ingressing.
IAF acknowledged the SOWs hitting within Indian Army compounds.
3. Dogfight over LoC:
IAF vectored MiG-21s, Su-30s & Mirage-2000s against PAF's Mirage-IIIs, JF-17s & F-16s. Following 4x kills occurred in my opinion:
A. Unconfirmed kill 01: PAF claims that SL Hassaan's F-16 launched an AMRAAM at a large RCS target, believed to be Su-30MKI, deep inside IoK. There exists electronic confirmation of kill via detonation at the intended position/altitude and target blip disappearance. However this is circumstantial evidence and not released to public. There is a possibility that the AMRAAM hit chaff and the target dropped below horizon afterwards.
B. Unconfirmed kill 02: IAF claims that WC Abhinandhan shot down a PAF F-16 before being shot down himself. Enough video evidence, witnesses and statements exist to indicate that 2x aircrafts went down along the LoC in close vicinity. One is confirmed to be MiG-21, other could possibly be one of the dual-seat Mirage-IIIDPs which went closer to guide the H-4 SOW. There is a possibility that Mirage-IIIDP was shot down by another AMRAAM alongwith the MiG-21 Bison due to being in close proximity, in a case of fratricide.
C. MiG-21 Bison: WC Abhinandhan's MiG-21 ingressed 'blindly', vectored by his GCI. WC Abhinandhan was cleared to cross the LoC and go in hot pursuit. PAF DA-20 jammed his comms and he was shot down by WC Nauman's F-16. Wreckage, missiles and EFT were recovered indicating that before getting shot down, WC Abhinandhan did not launch any AAM. IAF didn't claim any other launches.
D. Mi-17: An IAF Mi-17 flying in proximity of Srinagar AFS was mistaken as a UAV and shot down by the SPYDER SAM system based at Srinagar AFS.
4. Aftermath:
A. Pakistan's nuclear deterrence has not been compromised as none of Pakistan's nuclear red lines were breached. There is always room for small skirmishes, it is India's fault that they believed Pakistan's rhetoric and imposed red lines on themselves. Pakistan's conventional deterrence was compromised, but an immediate restoration was attempted. Time will tell if it was restored successfully.
B. IAF wasted the opportunity of neutralizing militants by missing. It is highly unlikely that it will get another chance like that again. However IAF did gain useful experience of precision strikes, interceptions and battle management. PAF also got the opportunity to gain useful combat experience. Mirages with H-4s, JF-17s with Mk-83 REKs and F-16s with AMRAAMs were used in combat, alongwith EW/ECM using DA-20 and battle monitoring/management using Saab-2000 AEW&C.
C. IAF has identified key weaknesses namely targeting errors, lack of enough AWACS, mediocre BVRs, limited shelters for Su-30s and importance of electronic warfare. PAF has identified key weaknesses namely lack of LRSAMs, not enough MRSAMs and lack of BrahMos-equivalent systems.
D. Asset mobilization, alert levels and climbing the escalation ladder was practiced by both countries. . Both countries carried out conventional air-strikes. Pakistan knows that there will be retribution for any large militant attack. India knows that it won't get away with any misadventure on Pakistani soil.
E. Modi has closed the doors on himself, and he must strike next time otherwise he would risk losing his electoral popularity. However India did indeed pressure Pakistan into rethinking militant support and actively shutting them down for good. If hopefully there isn't a major militant attack ever again in Kashmir, the Indian military aggression will have achieved its objective.
5. Third-party analysis:
Balakot Airstrikes
An airstrike and its aftermath
Satellite images show madrasa buildings still standing at scene of Indian bombing - Reuters
Were India’s airstrikes in Pakistan a strategy for public approval? | The Strategist
India’s strike on Balakot: a very precise miss? | The Strategist
Images - India, Pakistan Airstrike | European Space Imaging
Surgical Strike in Pakistan a Botched Operation? - DFRLab - Medium
Dogfight over LoC
Geolocation and a Philosopher's Stone in Kashmir - bellingcat
Falcon vs Bison: Verifying a MiG-21 Wreck - bellingcat
IN DEPTH: Indian Plane Shot Down Over Pakistan in February
Did India Shoot Down a Pakistani Jet? U.S. Count Says No.
1. Balakot Strikes:
IAF utilized diversion, terrain masking and a deeper base to create an element of surprise. IAF's Mirage-2000s popped up from behind the Pir Panjal range, ingressed ~9-10km across the LoC over Muzaffarabad sector and launched SPICE-2000 SOWs armed with 2000lbs general purpose munitions. PAF couldn't intercept, because 2x airborne CAPs were diverted to Lahore & Bahawalpur sectors to intercept the intended incursions there and no new airborne CAPs were available for interception. PAF was not cleared to go in hot pursuit.
There is conclusive evidence available that IAF missed. There is no damage to any structure in satellite imagery. There are no people or vehicles visible in post-strike imagery for moving dead-bodies. There are no repair efforts visible. There are no videos on SM of ambulances or any sort of other massive vehicle movement in Jaba/Bisian to signify any major event.
- How did IAF miss? It was most probably a systematic GPS targeting error since the SOWs missed by nearly identical distances.
- Why was GPS used instead of IIR or TV-guidance? Because visibility was poor for IIR and line of sight was not available for TV-guidance.
- Would using Crystal Maze have made any difference? No, as it shares the same seeker as SPICE and the same restrictions apply here.
- Did PAF thwart IAF strike? No, otherwise the SOWs would not have been armed and would have missed by much larger distances.
- What about NRTC's report of 300 active cell phones? Active cellphones before the strike are no measure of casualties.
- What about an Italian journalist claiming hundreds of casualties? She is biased to the extent that her 'journalism' is limited to Pakistan.
- Why Pakistan didn't allow journalists to visit the facility promptly? Because Pakistan's narrative was that there was no JeM camp. If journalists took photos and matched them with Indian intel dossier photos, JeM camp would have been confirmed, even if it wasn't functional for the past couple of years.
2. Operation Swift Retort:
PAF had contingency plans of responding to such an adventure, adopted probably after post-Mumbai IAF's 2x parallel incursions. A large amount of aircrafts went airborne around 0800, conducted IB-wide patrols and monitored different IAF CAPs. PAF utilized diversion and swarm tactics, and ingressed when there were the least amount of IAF assets in the Sunderbani-Rajouri sector.
2x Mirage-VPAs approached Sunderbani area from the South, launched 1x H-4 each at targets in Narian & Naushera from well within Pakistani airspace and bugged out. They were followed by 2x dual-seat Mirage-IIIDPs to guide H-4s using man-in-the-loop TV-guidance, alongwith 2x JF-17 escorts. 2x JF-17s approached Rajouri area from the West with 2x JF-17 escorts, launched 2x Mk-83 REKs each at targets in Poonch & Rajouri without ingressing.
IAF acknowledged the SOWs hitting within Indian Army compounds.
- What were PAF's targets? They were empty areas within Indian Army Brigade HQ, Battalion HQ and Ammo dumps at multiple locations.
- Why PAF chose such targets? Since IAF strikes didn't do any damage, PAF wanted to demonstrate right, intent and capability to retaliate.
- Why didn't Pakistan use artillery instead? Because Pakistan needed to retaliate in a proportional manner.
- Were PAF strikes meant for public consumption? No, they were done to restore conventional deterrence, as declared before IAF strikes.
- Did IAF thwart PAF strike? No, otherwise the SOWs would have missed the IA Compunds. IAF didn't have any assets to jam the SOWs.
- What about H-4 debris in AJK? Those are SFM assemblies, jettisoned successfully after boosting the glide assemblies.
3. Dogfight over LoC:
IAF vectored MiG-21s, Su-30s & Mirage-2000s against PAF's Mirage-IIIs, JF-17s & F-16s. Following 4x kills occurred in my opinion:
A. Unconfirmed kill 01: PAF claims that SL Hassaan's F-16 launched an AMRAAM at a large RCS target, believed to be Su-30MKI, deep inside IoK. There exists electronic confirmation of kill via detonation at the intended position/altitude and target blip disappearance. However this is circumstantial evidence and not released to public. There is a possibility that the AMRAAM hit chaff and the target dropped below horizon afterwards.
B. Unconfirmed kill 02: IAF claims that WC Abhinandhan shot down a PAF F-16 before being shot down himself. Enough video evidence, witnesses and statements exist to indicate that 2x aircrafts went down along the LoC in close vicinity. One is confirmed to be MiG-21, other could possibly be one of the dual-seat Mirage-IIIDPs which went closer to guide the H-4 SOW. There is a possibility that Mirage-IIIDP was shot down by another AMRAAM alongwith the MiG-21 Bison due to being in close proximity, in a case of fratricide.
C. MiG-21 Bison: WC Abhinandhan's MiG-21 ingressed 'blindly', vectored by his GCI. WC Abhinandhan was cleared to cross the LoC and go in hot pursuit. PAF DA-20 jammed his comms and he was shot down by WC Nauman's F-16. Wreckage, missiles and EFT were recovered indicating that before getting shot down, WC Abhinandhan did not launch any AAM. IAF didn't claim any other launches.
D. Mi-17: An IAF Mi-17 flying in proximity of Srinagar AFS was mistaken as a UAV and shot down by the SPYDER SAM system based at Srinagar AFS.
- Why did PAF launch AMRAAMs at long ranges? To take down IAF aircrafts, or at least keep them at bay for the duration of the operation.
- Why DG ISPR initially denied use of F-16? Because PA feared retribution from US on offensive use of F-16 against India. However DG ISPR later rectified to no F-16s used in air-to-ground strikes.
- Why couldn't the unconfirmed kill 02 be an F-16? Third-party confirmation of no F-16 loss exists. Besides, IAF claimed F-16 based on ELINT data of the swarm in the area, which doesn't necessarily mean an F-16. WC Abhinandhan could not have confirmed a visual/kill of F-16, since his comms were jammed.
4. Aftermath:
A. Pakistan's nuclear deterrence has not been compromised as none of Pakistan's nuclear red lines were breached. There is always room for small skirmishes, it is India's fault that they believed Pakistan's rhetoric and imposed red lines on themselves. Pakistan's conventional deterrence was compromised, but an immediate restoration was attempted. Time will tell if it was restored successfully.
B. IAF wasted the opportunity of neutralizing militants by missing. It is highly unlikely that it will get another chance like that again. However IAF did gain useful experience of precision strikes, interceptions and battle management. PAF also got the opportunity to gain useful combat experience. Mirages with H-4s, JF-17s with Mk-83 REKs and F-16s with AMRAAMs were used in combat, alongwith EW/ECM using DA-20 and battle monitoring/management using Saab-2000 AEW&C.
C. IAF has identified key weaknesses namely targeting errors, lack of enough AWACS, mediocre BVRs, limited shelters for Su-30s and importance of electronic warfare. PAF has identified key weaknesses namely lack of LRSAMs, not enough MRSAMs and lack of BrahMos-equivalent systems.
D. Asset mobilization, alert levels and climbing the escalation ladder was practiced by both countries. . Both countries carried out conventional air-strikes. Pakistan knows that there will be retribution for any large militant attack. India knows that it won't get away with any misadventure on Pakistani soil.
E. Modi has closed the doors on himself, and he must strike next time otherwise he would risk losing his electoral popularity. However India did indeed pressure Pakistan into rethinking militant support and actively shutting them down for good. If hopefully there isn't a major militant attack ever again in Kashmir, the Indian military aggression will have achieved its objective.
5. Third-party analysis:
Balakot Airstrikes
An airstrike and its aftermath
Satellite images show madrasa buildings still standing at scene of Indian bombing - Reuters
Were India’s airstrikes in Pakistan a strategy for public approval? | The Strategist
India’s strike on Balakot: a very precise miss? | The Strategist
Images - India, Pakistan Airstrike | European Space Imaging
Surgical Strike in Pakistan a Botched Operation? - DFRLab - Medium
Dogfight over LoC
Geolocation and a Philosopher's Stone in Kashmir - bellingcat
Falcon vs Bison: Verifying a MiG-21 Wreck - bellingcat
IN DEPTH: Indian Plane Shot Down Over Pakistan in February
Did India Shoot Down a Pakistani Jet? U.S. Count Says No.
@BlackOpsIndia has failed to render any explanation for change of roof top of the supposed target of IAF strikes and he is a senior member and Local Host. That shows the third rate standard of this site and forum.
It is very interesting that 3x SOWs from 3x different planes aligned perfectly along a single roof joint, and the roof did not collapse by 6000lbs of material falling on it at supersonic speeds...while killing a 'large' amount of militants inside. In my opinion this is a super weapon, not even possessed by the mighty USA.Those don't look real though.
Even then, that wasn't the target. The main target was the big hostel at the very top where terrorists sleep. The target in the image is simply an assembly hall which is empty at night. The hall is what Pakistan showed off to international journalists as well, but it wasn't attacked.
Here's the actual target with the holes in the sleeping quarters.
As said by Pakistani ex military general, DG ispr changed the narrative. He gave an example of a school boy who was slaped by his teacher. Rather than being ashamed, he said that it is not hurt at all.
General Ahmed Shahzad said that the question of how many guys killed but the real question is that India violated the the sovereignty of Pakistan. Rather than talking on violation of there Sovereignty, they keep laughing that nobody died in the attack. Certainly DG ispr is a a shameless creature like most of the Pakistanis.
General Ahmed Shahzad said that the question of how many guys killed but the real question is that India violated the the sovereignty of Pakistan. Rather than talking on violation of there Sovereignty, they keep laughing that nobody died in the attack. Certainly DG ispr is a a shameless creature like most of the Pakistanis.
They doesn't look like holes.kindly check the image of building before strikes.
What most people here forget are the statements made by Pakistan after India did surgical strikes in Myanmaar and how Pakistanis said that India will get a beffitting reply if it tried them in Pakistan. They infact said that it is impossible for India to do so in Pakistan. But we did it across LOC in 2016 and we repeated it this year. For us Pakistan and Myanmaar are same.
I agree with you. DG ispr called an urgent press conferance of journalist just to express the regret of falling trees. it followed by urgent meeting called by your prime minister to discuss the issue of death of three cows I fully agree with you.
The roof was slightly dislodged. Also, the munitions do not "destroy". The bombs penetrate and explode where intended, and the munitions were the fragmentation kind, so all it does is drop "grenades" inside.
This has been used many times by the Israelis, particularly in Syria. The roof will comfortably withstand the hit because it's obviously bolted on and is metal.
Maybe the US does lack such a weapon. There are plenty of weapons the US doesn't operate, like the AASM or the Brimstone 2.
Lockheed Adds Some Israeli SPICE To Kinetics Market
As for the alignment, I don't see much of a difference. The distance between the farthest holes seem to be as wide as 2m at the very minimum. I hope you don't think that's not at least 6 feet. The holes alone must be half a meter in diameter. And it's obvious that even if 3 planes were used for 3 bombs, the target was likely the center of the roof. So the angle of entry seems quite accurate for 3 aircraft flying side by side.
Btw, the munitions used were of the 70Kg kind.
Mirage 3 or F16 loss is still denied by GoP.
Kudos to you, to have included in it.
- Status