India - Pakistan Standoff 2019

[Star Wars]

Pakistanis are waiting for FATF meeting. Post that they are going to do something. PA due to inaction in Kashmir is already loosing a lot of prestige within the country. Bajwa would not reappoint himself and further damage that prestige unless he had something in mind. Whatever Pakistanis will do, they will do post FATF meet and UN General assembly meet.

@Falcon @nair Thoughts ?

 

[Hellfire]

Pakistanis are waiting for FATF meeting. Post that they are going to do something. PA due to inaction in Kashmir is already loosing a lot of prestige within the country. Bajwa would not reappoint himself and further damage that prestige unless he had something in mind. Whatever Pakistanis will do, they will do post FATF meet and UN General assembly meet.

@Falcon @nair Thoughts ?

My personal take.

Extension 'granted' to Gen Raheel Sharief as COAS is indicative of a soft coup that has occurred in Pakistan. That PM Niazi has done something that he has earlier proclaimed to be detrimental in creating strong institutions within the country, is again indicative of the same. Recall the threat of Million Strong March on Islamabad issued by Fazrul Rehman (if the name is correctly recalled) some weeks back - that is impossible without a tacit Military backing (the call itself). With Pakistan unable to find traction for its version over J&K in international multilateral forums, and here Pakistan Military has been backing the initiatives of the GoP at every step, the public perception demanding an action by Pakistan over Article 370, ironically fueled by Pakistan Military again, has put it in a spot. People are now openly questioning the ability of Pakistan Army in the issue. I see an attempt underway to make PM Niazi a scapegoat for the failure of this tactics of Pakistan Army and army absolving itself by denying any involvement in what the 'civil leadership' did, leaving the blame to conveniently come on PM Niazi and allow Pakistan Army to blame him for sell out.

Anyway that he could have survived was through a multi-party civil front, which was essentially undermined by singular focus on destroying PPP and PML-N leadership.

 

[Hellfire]

BTW, did you get part of your home "land" securing training in China?

Er??? Didn't get this. Can you clarify?

 

[Hellfire]

Fragmented Pakistan - packaged like instant noodles. Just open in a pot of boiling water and add the taste maker.

Guys - the only option for quick results depended on Pakistan cooperating. That did not happen. Now we have to wait for an opportunity. Doing some thing rash is what Pakistan wants from us.

Not a great idea as of today. That of a fragmented Pakistan.

 

[Guynextdoor]

Not a great idea as of today. That of a fragmented Pakistan.

Have you guys factored in the roohani fauj that Pakistan is planning to unleash?

 

[vstol Jockey]

@Falcon, Lt. Gen Bilal Akbar is the Rawalpindi Corp commander was the next in line to be the COAS in Pakistan. But he is getting hammered at LOC and has proven to be a failure as on date. In few of my posts after Balakot, I had written that he was smarting to take over as COAS and was calling for strong actions against India. He was granted his wish and was told to move some of his corp formations to LOC. Result is there for everybody to see. He has been proven to be hot air. now there is no one available to take over from Bajwa and he still has sometime to reach 60yrs of age. Bajwa played it well and rest of the job was done by IA.

 

[Jaymax]

@Falcon - I understand that the LoC activity is due to PA trying to push in proxies. Why their airforce burning up spares with daily exercises? Whats that angle?

 

[vstol Jockey]

Not a great idea as of today. That of a fragmented Pakistan.

It is this thinking which has played havoc with India for last 72 years. Pakistan divivded is the best solution for India. What you have stated runs counter to what nearly everyone in military establishment thinks.

@Falcon - I understand that the LoC activity is due to PA trying to push in proxies. Why their airforce burning up spares with daily exercises? Whats that angle?

This is for the consumption of their population. All the media blitz to show Indian forces as committing genocide of Kashmiris will backfire on Pakistan itself. People will start abusing their Generals openly and it has already started.

 

[Hellfire]

Really??? Do you know how much have lost due to this ongoing violence. According to RTI our 4506 or so soldiers attained veergati due to CFVs from 2003 to now.

What all does that figure constitute? Are you aware that it is not exclusively from direct enemy fire? Are you aware that since they are under OP RAKSHAK (for Armed Forces including RR), even a Road Traffic Accident or a Heart Attack (occurs in High Altitude regions) constitute a Battle Casualty as per Army Order I/2003 and is reflected as such? Please ... I know about it much more than the average Indian on street or to a certain extent, in forces too.

The figure works out to be 300 per year. In open cantonment roads, we lost 23 soldiers in one year in one cantonment because the civil administration does not build roads, undertakes poor town planning and then forces armed forces, who use these closed Cantt roads for forced marches training and BPET/PT, to open these roads 24x7 and politicians go crying to ask for opening and the average civilian on street petitions Government to stop "dadagiri" of "fauj" on closing Cantt roads.

Do not even get me started on this aspect my dear sir. We loose more men to accidents while on leave and training than due to enemy fire. Hard facts of life.

According to a report we would have been a 3.5 trillion dollar economy in 2017 itself if there were no violence in Kashmir and naxal areas. But we achieved on 2.6 trillion mark solely due to these conflicts incited by Pakistan. That is a loss of 900 billion dollars. So if you are saying that 4506 casualties and loss of 900 billion dollars " does not affect our way of life, our security and our interest" then Sir I must presume you are the only person having this conviction.

Points:

1. Kashmir is not the result of Pakistani actions, it is the result of failure of Indian politicians.
2. Naxalism is not the result of Pakistani actions, it is the result of failure of local politics.
3. My conviction is merely indicative of how things are seen where they matter, how things indeed are and how they will run. It is merely my intent to point people in the direction to look at. Can not force people to look and see what they do not want to see.

 

[Guynextdoor]

@Falcon, Lt. Gen Bilal Akbar is the Rawalpindi Corp commander was the next in line to be the COAS in Pakistan. But he is getting hammered at LOC and has proven to be a failure as on date. In few of my posts after Balakot, I had written that he was smarting to take over as COAS and was calling for strong actions against India. He was granted his wish and was told to move some of his corp formations to LOC. Result is there for everybody to see. He has been proven to be hot air. now there is no one available to take over from Bajwa and he still has sometime to reach 60yrs of age. Bajwa played it well and rest of the job was done by IA.

I've also believed that the divisions within the PA are as great an opportunity as any attack opportunity can give us.

 

[Guynextdoor]

@Falcon - I understand that the LoC activity is due to PA trying to push in proxies. Why their airforce burning up spares with daily exercises? Whats that angle?

Thye got some IMF money released.

 

[Jaymax]

I've also believed that the divisions within the PA are as great an opportunity as any attack opportunity can give us.

Sure lets give them the motivation they need to bury their differences and unite under a common banner. Sigh......

 

[Guynextdoor]

Sure lets give them the motivation they need to bury their differences and unite under a common banner. Sigh......

motivations don't build overnight in a culture run by massive individual egos.

 

[vstol Jockey]

I've also believed that the divisions within the PA are as great an opportunity as any attack opportunity can give us.

The best part is that whatever is happening in Kashmir to PA is now a lesson to rest of the corp commanders. Noone wants his part of border being heated up. They have all told Bajwa, keep the fire confined to J&K only.

 

[Hellfire]

@Falcon, Lt. Gen Bilal Akbar is the Rawalpindi Corp commander was the next in line to be the COAS in Pakistan. But he is getting hammered at LOC and has proven to be a failure as on date. In few of my posts after Balakot, I had written that he was smarting to take over as COAS and was calling for strong actions against India. He was granted his wish and was told to move some of his corp formations to LOC. Result is there for everybody to see. He has been proven to be hot air. now there is no one available to take over from Bajwa and he still has sometime to reach 60yrs of age. Bajwa played it well and rest of the job was done by IA.

Sir.

That is a very small part of the issue. Irrelevant in the context that the action is being undertaken. Right now, PA has absolutely no clue how to tackle India. That is the hardest fact which no one is willing to accept/believe. They simply are unable to get any support, much to their shock. Even the OIC and GCC has been tepid if not downright ignorant of their pleas. These are all ancillaries, the core issue is, Pakistani Military Leadership decided on a course that hoped to rope in world powers in its next moves on J&K. It did not pan out. Now, they are under increasing pressure from their own citizens (and paradoxically a victim of their own effective propaganda on their own citizens).So, they need a scapegoat. PM Niazi is being readied.

 

[Hellfire]

@Falcon - I understand that the LoC activity is due to PA trying to push in proxies. Why their airforce burning up spares with daily exercises? Whats that angle?

Because we will hit their bases again. They know it. Anytime.

 

[vstol Jockey]

Sir.

That is a very small part of the issue. Irrelevant in the context that the action is being undertaken. Right now, PA has absolutely no clue how to tackle India. That is the hardest fact which no one is willing to accept/believe. They simply are unable to get any support, much to their shock. Even the OIC and GCC has been tepid if not downright ignorant of their pleas. These are all ancillaries, the core issue is, Pakistani Military Leadership decided on a course that hoped to rope in world powers in its next moves on J&K. It did not pan out. Now, they are under increasing pressure from their own citizens (and paradoxically a victim of their own effective propaganda on their own citizens).So, they need a scapegoat. PM Niazi is being readied.

Actually PA just does not know what to do? They never expected that we can do this to them on LOC itself. They just can't find a way to get out of the mess they are in. They have to push militants into India to do something spectacular and at the sametime they know that if it is indeed spectacular, then Pakistan is history.

 

[godofwar]

@Falcon, Lt. Gen Bilal Akbar is the Rawalpindi Corp commander was the next in line to be the COAS in Pakistan. But he is getting hammered at LOC and has proven to be a failure as on date. In few of my posts after Balakot, I had written that he was smarting to take over as COAS and was calling for strong actions against India. He was granted his wish and was told to move some of his corp formations to LOC. Result is there for everybody to see. He has been proven to be hot air. now there is no one available to take over from Bajwa and he still has sometime to reach 60yrs of age. Bajwa played it well and rest of the job was done by IA.

According to Shekhar Gupta, Bajwa has been planning on getting an extension for quite some time.

First he got Im the Dim selected as the PM to be presented as the face of his rule.Then he made a "weak guy" Asim Muneer stop gap ISI chief for 8 months as his chamcha Faiz Hameed was not a 3 star general by the time last ISI chief Naveed Mukhtar retired and hence was ineligible for the post.As soon as Faizu became a 3 star general out went Asim and in came Faizu.

Faizu, incidentally, has served under Bajwa and belongs to same regiment.He also has reputation of being an "internal politics" specialist in ISI which is kinda weird specialization for an "intelligence" agency but hey, this is Pakistan we are talking about.

Then he encouraged the next would-be-COAS Bilal Akbar to go balls to wall on LoC without giving him support of other corps, knowing fully well that he would get spanked thus humiliating him in front of other corp commanders and further strengthening the case for his extension over promoting the incompetent fool Bilal.

With his back covered by chamchas Imran and Faizu, and his main competitor Bilal cut down to size, Bajwa easily secured an extension.

The guy is a political animal but it does make you wonder when he gets the time to do his actual job, doesnt it ?
Maybe thats why he got caught with pants down with no preparation by Modi on 370.

 

[Hellfire]

It is this thinking which has played havoc with India for last 72 years. Pakistan divivded is the best solution for India. What you have stated runs counter to what nearly everyone in military establishment thinks.

Because you are looking at things as a vertical independent of the geo-strategic considerations involved. I look at military, politics and diplomatic imperatives as a horizontal set of simultaneous events that are not mutually exclusive. Most of the military leadership does that. Today, I can literally count on fingers the people who have read war as it needs to be read. Heck, rare to find people who have read Clausewitz or Jomini (as an example).

Without going in to too much details:

1. Fragmentation will leave weakened states on periphery.
2. India does not have the financial muscle to stabilize these new fragments.
3. Leaving aside Chinese interests in 'new fragments', let us not be under any illusion that Iranians, Russians don't have their own interests. While they do not have the economic clout, we will be foolish to ignore their interests and forget that after China, India will be the next target of US. Anyone who assumes that India will not be taken as a threat to US, is foolish to say the very least.
4. Look at Turkey, understand the game that is being played out with it over Syria. Analyze it. It is fun to read the game plan. And middle east is already bogged down - US encouraged Saudis and UAE to move into Yemen and into a war that Sauds will not be able to extricate themselves from, while ramping up shale oil.

I can go on. Will ... when have time to put it out.

 

[nair]

akistanis are waiting for FATF meeting. Post that they are going to do something. PA due to inaction in Kashmir is already loosing a lot of prestige within the country. Bajwa would not reappoint himself and further damage that prestige unless he had something in mind. Whatever Pakistanis will do, they will do post FATF meet and UN General assembly meet.

Bajwa wanted to do something...... I agree But what???? Let us list down his options

1) Attack across LOC and try to capture kashmir
2) Help terrorism - Kashmir
3) Get international community to join them and force India to with draw
4) Threaten India of a nuclear war - this can have 2 aspects - a) Threaten India b) Get international community to support
5) Activate sleeper cells across India
6) Arm Twist US on Afghan exit

Attack LOC
This could have been an option thinking 1999/2002 in Mind, that India wont respond beyond the defense of LOC, and they can get away by claiming few 100 mts (multiply by gafoora's lying skills) and declare victory..... But India is totally different today, The govt in delhi is probably the most unpredictable one ever pakistan has faced (barring IG in1971), Today India is agressive and not shying away from taking tough decisions..... If it can pull an air raid across LOC to Pakistan (beyond pOK) which was a taboo duirng kargil.... It can behave in any way they want..... So the response would be very harsh and probably more than what they expected. Today govt is not shying away declaring its acts across border, which was again a taboo previously..... So Bajwa can take this risk, and pull back its entire country by another 20 years..... I do not think we have any issue even if we wanna try some tricks...... We have been planning this for quite some time.....especially post pathankot..... Modi genuinely put his effort in normalising relationship, and the response he got made him realise that, no point in wasting time (correction, even for pathankot, we have got ISI to examine the atack area, but we all know the out come) but post URI, i say we were pretty sure that the pindy boys are not interested in peace with India..... So our preparation started from then..... If you could recollect Bipin Rawat's interview post doklam, you will get clues what we have been doing or what we plan to do in near future (i mean that time)...... So we are ready..... There is no more surprise elements currently.... Even if they try some tricks I am sure the day will start with a bonfire in karachi.....

Help terrorism - Kashmir

This is 100% gonna happen, Now there is a legitimate reason for the locals to pick the gun...... Border management is going to be the key and there will be suicide attacks from now on.... We cannot afford to keep the guard at this level, and we will be reducing the alerts..... As long as they manage to fund and motivate kids from valley to pick up guns, this will continue.... But i am sure South block has taken this into consideration and have lined up plans to address this......

Get international community to join them and force India to withdraw

From the initial reports international community is not bothered much kashmir, and current status of pakistan doesn't make them eligible for any support.... Currently they are on oxygen supplied by IMF, With IMF US has leveraged a bit on Pak - China relationship, and the Game changer CPEC is not going as per the dream of our friends across the border, China also knows that there is no point supporting pakistan beyond a point to irk India.... Our trade with them are strong, and the current trade war with US is not going down well in China, They already into another problem hongkong which can get them in to another problem , So i do not think china can do some cosmetic support, but beyond a point i doubt.... US today made a statment that They stand by India on 370 and its an internal matter of India.... Russia may not as supportive as early, but we are still the biggest customer of theirs and gonna remain for a long time.... France is in our pocket, and UK is told in the language they understand, and now they are also in a damage control mode..... Ummah gang has given a big "haath" Turkey might be supporting them, but they themselves are sandwiched between nato and US, Malaysia may do some lip service, but they have high stakes in India, so..... I do not see anything in that line....

Threaten India of a nuclear war - this can have 2 aspects - a) Threaten India b) Get international community to support

This is the last resort, but before using the word "N" there are several steps to be taken and escalation ladder is too tall one to reach, My gut feeling says even if there is an exchange, we will play it down (not in terms of response, but there wont be any grand standing), As long as there is no much publicity there wont be able to climb the ladder to reach the step where they kept their priced treasure of "N", The no sats tracking their TEL's would be one of the highest ever in history of mankind (and most of them would be providing us the info), I think our response would be a declaration of operational patrol of arighat........But they can use the nuke boggie to bargain or black mail by saying that this can spiral in to a nuke war and UN to interfere, it will be interesting to see how the world response would be......

Activate sleeper cells across India

They very well know any attack now and tracing them to Pak will have 2 aspects - 1) India response militariliy, and FATF action. I do not expect them to go from the grey list in near future, they may get away from listing black, but gray will remain, and any attack traced to pak will land them in Black list..... Second the international support to India will increase multiple fold, and india can respond to it any manner it may decide to.... and there wont be even china standing with them on this...... So bajwa should be praying that the sleeper cells remain sleeper for a long time....

Arm Twist US on Afghan exit

If this happens, then Pakistan has something big to worry, Me and @Falcon had a discussion on this else where, and any attempt to armtwist US will result in repeating 1971, the 2 nation theory will become 4 nation........