We need to be at 10 trillion dollar economy plus to make an attempt on pok,gilgit. Otherwise economic cost and diplomatic pressure will be too much.Unless you are near equal of china all it would take for the fancy plans of taking gilgit to collapse is a partial mobilization of PLA in tibet .There is also absolutely no need to take in azad jihadis, and you cant commit ethnic cleansing in a democracy under world scrutiny.So right now only op kabaddi 2 is possible.Rest is hyperbole.Those that are obsessed with cutting off china should remember that CPEC is a lemon that is already dying its own death.It will crush and beggar pakistan, which suits us just fine.Oil is gonna be finished in 10- 20 years, so oil pipeline from gwadar has no long term benefit,either way china has russian gas now.Trade through the land route is another lemon due to huge distances,horrible terrain and totally unprofitable logistics cost compared to seaborne shipping.
Same case for connection to central asia, there is nothing profitable in central asia except gas, and we have multiple sources of that, sparse populations and impoverished countries.No market.The money is in east asia ..europe and america...even africa.We already buy uranium from central asia..dont need a dangerous road for that.
So this obsession with cutting off china and getting access to central asia are largely irrelevant.Seal the loc with technology, pound them mercilessly with a policy of 10 pak regulars dead for every indian jawan kia and build up arty and infrastructure for that( already underway)..fund proxies within pakistan...periodic balakot like strikes..and above all go full speed on economy...if we are 10 trillion dollar economy and they are 400 billion.the 'rivalry' is automatically dead.We have until 2035 to get to 10 trillion.After that we can do what we want.Pakistan has no future as it has no economy..in the modern world..economy dictates your diplomatic influence..power projection..military and technological capacity..internal unrest level..everything.
May I point out an inherent contradiction in your assessment. You say oil & gas aren't important and then add China is getting the same from Russia. Well, just as Russia is wary of putting all its eggs in one basket, I assume so will the Chinese. They would definitely want to diversify their share of suppliers and also safeguard the supplies.
Moreover, I'm of the opinion the whole concept of running an oil & gas pipeline thru the length of Pakistan into Xinjiang is a smokescreen. The terrain simply doesn't allow it. Now would one thru Wakhan meandering into KPK though knowledgeable commentators claim it's better than traversing thru the Khunjerab & the Karakorums.
There's more sense in getting it thru Kyaukphyu. But to do that they'd have to traverse the BoB and counter the strong Indian presence there. Hence, the base at Jiwani to deter India in case we undertake any adverse activities in the BoB. The beauty of the philosophy of a string of pearls is that apart from dual use it has a certain redundancy inbuilt into the project.
As long as China is determined to reclaim all those territories it does of which Taiwan is paramount in their list of claims, the need to diversify and safeguard their sources of energy supply will be top most priority.
Further, I wouldn't be Dismissive of both oil & gas as a fuel for the next 3-4 or at least the next 2-3 decades. By this, I'm not referring only to motor fuels but it's capacity to generate power among other utilitarian items . The coming EV revolution will push these oil economies to become much more competitive and flexible. Something which will definitely prompt fossil fuel deficit and huge consumers like us & China to look for bargains in our efforts to diversify our basket of energy products. It's more applicable to us given our economic strength or lack of it as compared to China You can view this period as a transition time .
It's for precisely for this reason, the CAR holds attraction for us. In built into this imperative should be an attempt to isolate China from accessing the same energy sources in the CAR region thru the land route we would be accessing them thru so that we can have a good bargain and as far as possible a monopoly.That's where our interest in PoK & maybe extending that to Wakhan comes in .Converging into this is the security situation in the region namely Afghanistan.
We would definitely want a second front for Pakistan if we don't want to face a lot of heat in Kashmir in the coming days . As far as inheritance of a jihadi led culture and the fact that we can't commit a genocide there goes, my view is it's not needed. Once war breaks out, ppl who want to save their lives automatically make it out which will be the vast majority. We ought to aid such efforts thru indiscriminate bombings calling victims of it as collateral damage. The rest need to be culled with extreme prejudice.The example of Syria lies before you.
Having made this assessment, let me also agree with you that while Pakistan's economy is in the doldrums we aren't in a good shape today too. Hence all such activities need take place once we have secured our economy beyond the usual shocks which as of today could shatter a fragile economy. However I disagree with the ballpark figure of 10 trillion USD. For all you know that may take another 15 years. We don't have that much time. The unfolding situation in Kashmir and Afghanistan makes that time schedule untenable.
A few closing points -
Tell me, after the lifting of sanctions on Iran, their unnecessary bargaining and leveraging us by bringing in the Russians in the Farzad B gas field would've left a bitter taste in our mouths. What saved us was Trump's election and Iran's attempts at over playing their hand. What's the alternative? The same old Gulf states who'd only be delighted by our limited maneouvrability minus Iran. Venezuela is shut. Russia & the US too far away and not the most trusted of suppliers. Where's the alternative to the CAR?
As far as the CPEC goes, now that the game is out, I would expect China to temper it's assessment of the situation and come up with more equitable deals. You will see much more activity on this front as it's now increasingly clear that the US China trade war is here to stay. Expect China to double down on its deal making attempts in the neighborhood, more pressure to conclude the RCEP and more pressure on India to join in the BRI.
Finally, it's never a good idea to abandon your claims. Whoever thought 7 decades ago that water would be a crisis 8-10 decades down the line. Yet here we are today with Kashmir which controls the supply of practically all of Pakistan's waters. What would've happened if Pakistan had gained control of Kashmir in 1948 ? Would they have been as magnanimous as us in offering the IWT or would we have been hysterical like them claiming Kashmir as our jugular vein? Let's also consider the case of Tibet and how vital is it in the Chinese scheme of things given it's the source of practically all the major rivers in China.
