India - Pakistan Standoff 2019

[randomradio]

Wakhan border can be part of swap deal with Afghanistan to disolve Durandline. Moreover you guys will be shocked to know that India does have a border of about 43kms with Tajikistan. I mean the border of J&K.
@randomradio, how is Russia involved in it?

The Russians consider Central Asia as their backyard. They have significant military presence in Tajikistan.

Tajik Military Increasingly Part of Russian Army in All But Name - Jamestown

Lavrov Calls Russian Military Base In Tajikistan 'Important Security Factor'

Russia views military base in Tajikistan as stability factor in region

You can practically consider Tajikistan to be a Russian state. And in the long term you can start considering the EEU as a new nation in and of itself, and Tajikistan is going to be a part of it. So any attempt at taking territories that will put us next to any major Central Asian state will see us directly challenging Russia.

 

[Sathya]

The problem we were facing was ineffective employment of force by the State. In a legal nation state, the use or threat of violence should always be the sole prerogative of the State.

When the phrase 'use of force' is used, it is not limited merely to actual application but also to the coercive methods that the state has at its disposal, to ensure optimal force on the subject in order to enable/disable a certain characteristic.

While the so called champions of democracy will jump on this particular line of mine, what we have faced even up until yesterday, is the incomplete, hesitant use of all means at the State's disposal aka the Political will may be there, but the execution is tardy and poor.

And no. There is no black or white. We have a very large and significant population which is not interested in either side, merely is caught between the two. The pro-Pakistan segment is a joke in overall schema.... they are irrelevant. Hence, that is why I said we need to politically decide what we need to do.

This also in line with one other theory of myn, Gilgit Baltistan and abrogation of 370 is done with mutual acceptance to minimize the Non siding middle group. Who are the hindrance .

Though at this point, military actions doesn't support this theory ..

I felt dice started rolling since Mushraff / Vajpayee time..

If we don't go for POJK, I would strongly believe in this.

 

[Janardan Shukla]

Not at all. We have lot of instruments at our disposal. War is always the last resort. And trust me, the instruments we have right now, are far more effective to our overall aims and objectives.

They may not seem spectacular, but they have significant and far reaching effects. I have been mentioning since 2015, war is not what we will seek. If they want, we will happily give it to them, but we have a far better plan at work.

Well if you tell me something about those plans only then I would able to comment.
Until then for me war is the only option.

 

[randomradio]

Let's cross the bridge when we come to it. Right now, it's PoK that should be on our radars.With Chitral.A few years down the line, if we are successful in prosecuting our mission in PoK, with Afghanistan torn asunder in a civil war with the Pashtuns under the Taliban supported by Pakistan on one side and the Northern Alliance supported by Iran, Russia, etc on another side, a sudden crisis develops in East Asia much like the present one in HK, say in the Formosa Straits, the IA suddenly executes a seize & grab of the entire Wakhan corridor. Russia won't be pleased for certain but can be mollified. China's to be presented with a fait accompli. Of course all this is in the future.

Russia can be mollified only after China has begun to present a threat to Russia and the Russians need India as a counter. Who knows when that will happen? Maybe 2040? 2050? 2100?

And any attempt on India's part to fragment Pakistan cannot be done until India becomes a developed country, which is only possible well after 2030. Until then we neither have the diplomatic clout nor the economic clout. Recall 200 Rafales per year, that's where we have to be in order to pull it off.

As for PoK, same problem. We can't do anything on our own until we are able to show other powers our middle finger. So we need Pakistan to challenge us in Kashmir instead, which they will likely never attempt. Good if they did, but I find it extremely unlikely.

That's why "future" is a highly relative term. It can mean anything. Hell, it could mean flying cars by the time all this pans out.

 

[Ashwathama]

The problem we were facing was ineffective employment of force by the State. In a legal nation state, the use or threat of violence should always be the sole prerogative of the State.

When the phrase 'use of force' is used, it is not limited merely to actual application but also to the coercive methods that the state has at its disposal, to ensure optimal force on the subject in order to enable/disable a certain characteristic.

Wahile the so called champions of democracy will jump on this particular line of mine, what we have faced even up until yesterday, is the incomplete, hesitant use of all means at the State's disposal aka the Political will may be there, but the execution is tardy and poor.

And no. There is no black or white. We have a very large and significant population which is not interested in either side, merely is caught between the two. The pro-Pakistan segment is a joke in overall schema.... they are irrelevant. Hence, that is why I said we need to politically decide what we need to do.

Are you saying we should be more strict in the hostile local population.?

 

[Hellfire]

I agree with nearly all of your point but even if state use all its force effectively the problem will still remain just like that tree whose branches are cut but they will still grow in the future as long as sustainment is provided through roots. That is why we need to strike at the root i.e Pakistan.?

Pakistan is merely a climber on a tree, in a symbiotic relationship. The roots are the social structure. Until and unless you work at the grassroot, the citizen, you will always face challenges.

There is another important dictum of CI operations - kill a guilty, someone else will replace him/her, but kill an innocent, ten more will stand against you.

The more the cycle of violence is allowed to continue, the more the likelihood of occurrence of the latter.
Simple solution - implement Union of India's laws, without exception, without 'people friendly' non-sense, across all the territories of India, uniformly without 'flexibility' and unflinchingly. We have enough provisions. They are the inheritance of a system that was devised by the British, which ensured mass civil unrest was curbed.

 

[Hellfire]

Could you elaborate this point?

The average Kashmiri is indifferent. Wants same thing as anyone normal does - peace, prosperity and an opportunity to grow.

 

[Hellfire]

This also in line with one other theory of myn, Gilgit Baltistan and abrogation of 370 is done with mutual acceptance to minimize the Non siding middle group. Who are the hindrance .

Though at this point, military actions doesn't support this theory ..

I felt dice started rolling since Mushraff / Vajpayee time..

If we don't go for POJK, I would strongly believe in this.

????

 

[Hellfire]

Well if you tell me something about those plans only then I would able to comment.
Until then for me war is the only option.

Have been actively posting for 4th (?) year now with this cohort. Have dropped a lot of hints and statements around.

There is a lovely movie The Illusionist - quite boring and at times, frustrating & exasperating; you start getting bored as you watch it. And when the end comes, everything falls into place and the beauty of the plot is simply amazing, the planning and execution - exquisite.

Similarly, our overall approach is too boring, mundane, unimaginative and lacking any attraction. Best strategies are always that ways. Random events, actions and variables which keep making an appearance but are not correlated.

So, is my approach ... I follow the GoI's official line always!!!

 

[Hellfire]

Are you saying we should be more strict in the hostile local population.?

Rule of Law needs to be established across all our territories - be it J&K or Delhi. Absolutely and unflinchingly. Only when you use the full force of the laws of the land, can you fight insurgency where it needs to be fought - at the level of the citizen. Rest all are mere charades - no military force has won an insurgency. Ever.

 

[vstol Jockey]

Please don't put Pakistan and Afghanistan in one bracket. Afghanistan is our ally and Afghans will be the first to throw back the barbaric cult of Islam and embrace the Dharma of their forefathers.

How stupid of you. Shuklaji, taqat who hoti hai joh apnay haath main ho. Parayi talwaar kissi kaam kee nahin. same is true about land.

 

[randomradio]

Have been actively posting for 4th (?) year now with this cohort. Have dropped a lot of hints and statements around.

There is a lovely movie The Illusionist - quite boring and at times, frustrating & exasperating; you start getting bored as you watch it. And when the end comes, everything falls into place and the beauty of the plot is simply amazing, the planning and execution - exquisite.

Similarly, our overall approach is too boring, mundane, unimaginative and lacking any attraction. Best strategies are always that ways. Random events, actions and variables which keep making an appearance but are not correlated.

So, is my approach ... I follow the GoI's official line always!!!

It's such a simple thing for anybody to process. If Pakistan is screaming and tearing at their heads helplessly, our strategy is working.

 

[vstol Jockey]

The Russians consider Central Asia as their backyard. They have significant military presence in Tajikistan.

Tajik Military Increasingly Part of Russian Army in All But Name - Jamestown

Lavrov Calls Russian Military Base In Tajikistan 'Important Security Factor'

Russia views military base in Tajikistan as stability factor in region

You can practically consider Tajikistan to be a Russian state. And in the long term you can start considering the EEU as a new nation in and of itself, and Tajikistan is going to be a part of it. So any attempt at taking territories that will put us next to any major Central Asian state will see us directly challenging Russia.

But we have an airbase there. How do you explain that?

 

[Janardan Shukla]

How stupid of you. Shuklaji, taqat who hoti hai joh apnay haath main ho. Parayi talwaar kissi kaam kee nahin. same is true about land.

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.
Sorry sir I wasn't aware you were thinking about that.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Russia can be mollified only after China has begun to present a threat to Russia and the Russians need India as a counter. Who knows when that will happen? Maybe 2040? 2050? 2100?

And any attempt on India's part to fragment Pakistan cannot be done until India becomes a developed country, which is only possible well after 2030. Until then we neither have the diplomatic clout nor the economic clout. Recall 200 Rafales per year, that's where we have to be in order to pull it off.

As for PoK, same problem. We can't do anything on our own until we are able to show other powers our middle finger. So we need Pakistan to challenge us in Kashmir instead, which they will likely never attempt. Good if they did, but I find it extremely unlikely.

That's why "future" is a highly relative term. It can mean anything. Hell, it could mean flying cars by the time all this pans out.

The key to how close Russia is to the Chinese is dependant on just one factor or make that 2 . Putin's continuation in office or rather it's duration & who replaces him . The moment the latter happens, irrespective of who it is, you'd see a detente with the US. Unless you're suggesting Putin's going to continue in office till 2100. Once Russia resets it's ties to the US & by extension with the Western world, do you seriously believe they'd be enthralled by China. Isn't it more the case of two entities hand in hand because they're confronted by a common enemy?

Besides, I mentioned our primary objective is regaining PoK. It's only once we are ensconced there that we can think of what may follow. Seizing the Wakhan for access to CAR isn't am imperative. Seizing the Wakhan is an imperative only to cut China's reach into the larger CAR and west Asia including the IOR. Once we are in PoK, the Wakhan may well see pitched battles between the Taliban and the ANA / NA to prevent the Chinese utilising the Wakhan for its own advantage. As it is, they seem to have established a base there.

Any attempt to fragment Pakistan depends more on the state of their economy. That's the sole criterion. For I believe whatever the state of their economy, they'd never cease interference in Kashmir or Afghanistan. They'd keep piling the agony in both places. We'd have plenty in the near term future to serve as casus belli in case we need a pretext or as usual, we can calibrate our response to each outrage, build up our economy, prepare a case for war and prosecute it when we are in a position to do so, which in your estimate would be 2030 & which in my estimate is too far. I'm looking more at 2023-24.


As per @Falcon 's assessment, we already are in a position to initiate hostliities with Pakistan and launch our campaign to retake PoK. This also happens to be corroborated by other senior ex IA personnel in articles in the public domain.

 

[Hellfire]

It's such a simple thing for anybody to process. If Pakistan is screaming and tearing at their heads helplessly, our strategy is working.

What is being missed by most in SM and in general public is the fact that had there been a popular support for Pakistan in hard core militancy infested regions, they would have initiated a military action - assured of an insurrection which would have been difficult for us to control without use of overwhelming force, which would have put us in exactly the same place that Pakistan wants us to be - under international pressure ovveri Rights violations/genocide narrative etc.

But the ground realities are known to Pakistani leadership that matters, too. What we are seeing along LC is their attempt to keep the 'pot boiling' till they can find some support - which they have failed miserably at. And they are hoping that we go for a massive crackdown on likes of Sehela whatever her name is ... so that we make fundamental mistakes that allow them to paint an ugly picture of us. By not falling for theatrics of Pakistan, we are simply frustrating their attempts while we work to establish a gridwork for next phase of changes.

 

[vstol Jockey]

Russia can be mollified only after China has begun to present a threat to Russia and the Russians need India as a counter. Who knows when that will happen? Maybe 2040? 2050? 2100?

Far east of Russia will soon have Biharis as their population. Russia detests Chinese *censored* eyed guys as they consider themselves to be more of Indian Origin. Russia has to overcome the land grab by China in that area.

 

[vstol Jockey]

What is being missed by most in SM and in general public is the fact that had there been a popular support for Pakistan in hard core militancy infested regions, they would have initiated a military action - assured of an insurrection which would have been difficult for us to control without use of overwhelming force, which would have put us in exactly the same place that Pakistan wants us to be - under international pressure ovveri Rights violations/genocide narrative etc.

But the ground realities are known to Pakistani leadership that matters, too. What we are seeing along LC is their attempt to keep the 'pot boiling' till they can find some support - which they have failed miserably at. And they are hoping that we go for a massive crackdown on likes of Sehela whatever her name is ... so that we make fundamental mistakes that allow them to paint an ugly picture of us. By not falling for theatrics of Pakistan, we are simply frustrating their attempts while we work to establish a gridwork for next phase of changes.

Have you ever heard of shooting oneself in the foot? Pakistan has just done that. The Jihadis arranged against India will bite them more and force them to attack India. Me and You know what the outcome will be irrespective of the tactics used including Nukes.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Rule of Law needs to be established across all our territories - be it J&K or Delhi. Absolutely and unflinchingly. Only when you use the full force of the laws of the land, can you fight insurgency where it needs to be fought - at the level of the citizen. Rest all are mere charades - no military force has won an insurgency. Ever.

I think you underestimate the Mongols or haven't taken into account how the Russian Empire followed by their successor state the SU pacified Central Asia, ironically the successor state of Turco Mongols. The Russian Empire followed by SU followed by Russia in the Caucasus .Please take a look at how the Chinese have clinically gone about their task in Tibet & now in Xinjiang. Then there's the Communist insurgency in Malaya. The Spanish state in Catalan. The British in Ireland. The list is endless .

 

[Arsalan123]

Well pakistan can do everything that is possible but not war.we aren't fools.we know India is ready to attack us.we are trying to reset our relations with a number of countries.we know UN and icj are failed communities.they can't implement anything.we have to do things in our own way but this is not the right time to do anything stupid.we have seen that India is not sincere when it comes to Kashmir dispute.this is the same India who still call this Kashmir problem bilateral.whatever happened is past.i hope we learn lessons from indian aggressive approach.