Okay so Arnab has launched a debate titled Mission POK. Given the fact that Republic TV is guided by government what does government want to convey?
India - Pakistan Standoff 2019
- Thread starter nair
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Any offensive carried out by PA/ISI whether through conventional means or through instruments of terror must achieve the following aims of PA to be considered viable and successful in the current risk-return trade-off matrix imposed by India.
1. The humiliation of Modi Government. Not just any humiliation, a stinging, crushing one. Almost as important as the glory for PA/Mujhahideen.
2. A very high impact operation that captures and holds the world's collective attention. Longer the better. Even better if liberals can be made to believe and propagate that the root cause is Kashmir.
3. An operation that ties down India's ability to respond and counter as much as is reasonably considered possible. If indian action causes civilian casualties all the better.
4. An operation that glorifies the Jihadis/militants in front of the world, particularly the Islamic world.
Given these requirements,the standard regimen of serial bombings will fall dangerously short of objectives and worse create a more negative image of Pak. Actions like BAT attacks and beheading though have high impact in India, are really local level incidents settled at division level or lower and won't have the kind of international impact sought by Pak. A large cross border assault on key positions, especially astride the *********** sector where PA has advantage could spiral out of control, especially given Indian preparation and depth of firepower. Too expensive to be the first instrument.
What remains are three options,
1. Aircraft hijacking. Precedent exists given the capitulation of Vajpayee government to terrorist demands in 1999. All objectives are met and Indian response will be expected to be highly tied up.
2. School hijacking. Carries a high risk of negative international coverage. However will put Indian government under intense pressure as the images of 2000-3000 children under siege with their wailing parents will make it impossible to consider kinetic response. Can be stretched out for days into a media spectacle and humiliate government.
3. Capture of a mosque(jama Maszid or equivalent) with 1000-2000 devotees. Makes for a very strong emotionally appealing image of islam under siege in Muslim world. Can be continued indefinitely. Any Indian response will rekindle the image of Golden Temple operation in the minds of people and can easily be manipulated into a war against islam by ISI. Very low risk operation for PA, no losses and all gains.
If I was Bajwa I'd probably focus on 3. It's simple, effective and there are several hundred prospective targets without adequate security. And the image of Indian forces storming a mosque (with civilian casualties) will forever become an instrument of hate against India.
But I'm not Bajwa. So, just my two cents.
1. The humiliation of Modi Government. Not just any humiliation, a stinging, crushing one. Almost as important as the glory for PA/Mujhahideen.
2. A very high impact operation that captures and holds the world's collective attention. Longer the better. Even better if liberals can be made to believe and propagate that the root cause is Kashmir.
3. An operation that ties down India's ability to respond and counter as much as is reasonably considered possible. If indian action causes civilian casualties all the better.
4. An operation that glorifies the Jihadis/militants in front of the world, particularly the Islamic world.
Given these requirements,the standard regimen of serial bombings will fall dangerously short of objectives and worse create a more negative image of Pak. Actions like BAT attacks and beheading though have high impact in India, are really local level incidents settled at division level or lower and won't have the kind of international impact sought by Pak. A large cross border assault on key positions, especially astride the *********** sector where PA has advantage could spiral out of control, especially given Indian preparation and depth of firepower. Too expensive to be the first instrument.
What remains are three options,
1. Aircraft hijacking. Precedent exists given the capitulation of Vajpayee government to terrorist demands in 1999. All objectives are met and Indian response will be expected to be highly tied up.
2. School hijacking. Carries a high risk of negative international coverage. However will put Indian government under intense pressure as the images of 2000-3000 children under siege with their wailing parents will make it impossible to consider kinetic response. Can be stretched out for days into a media spectacle and humiliate government.
3. Capture of a mosque(jama Maszid or equivalent) with 1000-2000 devotees. Makes for a very strong emotionally appealing image of islam under siege in Muslim world. Can be continued indefinitely. Any Indian response will rekindle the image of Golden Temple operation in the minds of people and can easily be manipulated into a war against islam by ISI. Very low risk operation for PA, no losses and all gains.
If I was Bajwa I'd probably focus on 3. It's simple, effective and there are several hundred prospective targets without adequate security. And the image of Indian forces storming a mosque (with civilian casualties) will forever become an instrument of hate against India.
But I'm not Bajwa. So, just my two cents.
I live in a real world unfortunately, I wish I too can delude myself with feel good bollywood type action. I use to but not anymore.
World need just excuse to act as Chaudhari, when two people fight 3rd stops them to feel superior to both of them, natural tendency. If fading Britishers get some international outrage or headlines by targeting emerging power like India they will do it just for sake of it.
And I thought we were having serious discussion. Those inbreds found the chink in your armour even after being numerically, morally and technically inferior on 27th Feb. You are just plain lucky you did some damage to deter them in future but even in this worst case they made your top of the line Su30mki useless by using ancient F16's.
By abusing them or degrading them we are not achieving anything in a discussion, unless we are trolling them.
He made the threats and he didn't follow them that's pretty much chickening out. We can justify every response as a right thing to do looking back. Even surender by Nehru was right thing to do and so was surender by Niazi in 71.
+1 for this post.
Folks there are computer games available if you need your fix. You can name your opponent Pakistan and launch drone swarms and nuclear missiles at them all day.
Good analysis but fraught with fallacies.
Case 1 - Post the Kandahar hijacking, the then GoI passed a law which permitted the GoI to shoot down an aircraft if it's deemed to be a national security threat. Any such hijacking involving an Indian aircraft would have to be conducted abroad .
Case 2 - I assume this would involve local assets preferably Kashmiri ones. While in the immediate term, it'd bring pressure on the GoI, it'd further alienate the world from the Kashmiris, more so in India.
Case 3 - I won't lay much emphasis on a bunch of militants storming a mosque demanding restoration of status quo in Kashmir. More so if they resort to bloodshed. They'd only alienate mainland Indian Muslims. If they do the same to a temple or a gurudwara, they'd inflame opinion in India and seal their isolation.
I don't think Pakistan will attempt anything high profile before the FATF meeting is through and the US achieves it's objectives of a safe partial withdrawal. More importantly, they'd wait for all the restrictions to be off to see the mood on the street. That's a good 3-4 months away. They'd spend this time building up on their inventory of weapons and on fine tuning their plans. A real worry here is, if the mainstream local parties in Kashmir start their demand for Azaadi. They have been thoroughly humiliated and their power curtailed. It's important that the GoI reach terms with them. The rest of the usual riffraff like the Hurriyat, etc can be taken care of thru the SOP in place and fine tuned over three decades.
It will be a stupid move - even by Pakistan standards. Piss off your enemy nation's general public to extreme levels just before starting a war. India WILL go for the kill then. Plausible since Kapoora is also whining about False Flag ops but still its like lighting a few hundred kilos of dynamite and then sitting on it for fun.
Imran Khan, Bajwa, GAFOORA, Fawad Choudhary, Qureshi, etc will fetch millions. Pakistan should try selling these rare donkey breeds which will fetch them millions of dollars....
Okay I'm taking great pain by typing my response again ( I'm a very lazy person )
1- Let me tell you some facts of real world. India always keeps some bramhos missiles
( numbers unknown ) in operational readiness and they are locked on to some crucial targets of Pakistan ( mainly nuclear facilities ) Now tell me how much time a missile will take to travel 300 km if it is travelling at a speed of 2.8 mach? Sir sometimes reality is far more amazing than imagination. We have learner this through our exploration of Universe.
2- This time world power too wants India to capture POK. It is in their interest. I don't think I need to elaborate that point.
3- I was just stating a scientific fact with utmost seriousness. I was not mocking anyone. Science has categorically proved that inbreeding ( a general practice in Muslim world in general and Pakistan in particular ) lead to various genetic defects which directly affects the brain. That is why you see that Muslim world is lagging in field of scientific research. They should work on this problem
On 27th Feb they only proved that range of AIM 120C5 is slightly better than R77. Firing the missile from its maximum range itself shows their poor training. And we have filled that gap by ordering much more lethal AAMs. Their F16 are not old plus our Sukhoi didn't proven to be useless. It defended critical military installations lonely against 10 or so F16s. Plus they lost their frontline plane to a third tier cold war relic that too in their airspace with all of their ADs active and outnumbering Abhinandan 24:1.
4- We didn't go for a war at that time due to 3 reasons
( 1 ) - Due to capture of our pilot. Pakistan used it cleverly to halt any further escalation from us by returning him
( 2 ) - Upcoming general elections. Modi didn't want him to be portrayed that he uses armed forces for his electoral benefits.
( 3 ) - There were indeed some operational gaps that time which are filled now through this highly effective emergency purchase mechanism.
yea , which world you are living arsalan kumar * ji , no one is friendly with anyone , i said businessmen doing business . no one is accepting any demands of anyone , but pakistan , rather pakistan is worst than a concubine state (aab kya bolon main pakistan aur pakistanio ki aukat ke bare me) . we rejected so called china's economic corridor ( CEC) because it passes through illegitimately occupied land of bharat . and do you think china is pakistans good friend
. i am living in bharat , new delhi . can you justify your statement of investment of billions of dollars ? that too after selling a part of shah rag Karakoram to china . everything china invested is loan at high interest . reminding you 1971 because worst is yet to come this time for the land of pure and sacred , and pakistanis are masters in making predictions these days as shri Sheikh Rashid kumar ji predicted recently . ok ? arslan kumar saab * i feel the use shall be mandatory for converted sanatan dharmies descendants !
Well it means Pakistan shoulders the risk, rather than China (since loans are based on collateral+potential collateral already owned by Pakistan).
Remember China is flush with USD to several trillions....they could be doing this as FDI (and taking some risk on for themselves and putting forth their own collateral for their infra companies), but specifically dont.
Another alarm bell should be that China is focusing on (long term, ROI still to be proven) infra+logistics rather than production (factories) of what can be done right now within Pakistan own current environment (to earn badly needed forex with assured ROI). But problem of that kind of thing is it will compete with China's own exports (this is also why China is not very keen to open any significant access of its markets to lower labour cost countries)...and this is even more an issue for them with trade war going on. A pessimist would even say they are purposely putting another team out of commission (at minimal cost) in junior league (looking to get to next league) to improve their own home team's situation status quo in the major league.
They are very much in "wait and see" mode rather than a true partnership commitment mode to CPEC. They just making sure they win in long run whether CPEC succeeds or fails (for Pakistan). The latter is fully in Pakistan's bureaucracy+govt hands (and their performance less said the better)...because again its not FDI, esp private sector FDI (where you actually can get structural knowhow transferred for new industries etc).
It is clearly evident that Pakistani Pilots are poorly trained. They not only failed to strike precisely but also wasted their expensive AAMs by launching them from their maximum range. It is school boyish mistake which also shows their lack of balls to approach an enemy within NEZ of their AAMs.
Dunno how well this would work considering we have a system in place to deal with hijacking. There is a no negotiation policy in place now.
Hijacked plane can be shot down | India News - Times of India
"Any attempt to hijack a plane will be treated as an act of aggression against the country, and no negotiations will be held on the demands of the hijackers. Negotiations, if any, will only be tactical and demands of the hijackers will not be considered if it has an impact on national security," the official said.
In Indian airspace, it can even be shot down. And if the hijack happens in another country, then the Pakistanis will have to deal with the other govt as well.
This will backfire on Pakistan. Worse than Mumbai did.
Foreign terrorists taking over a mosque will alienate Indian Muslims from the terrorists. The same with Kashmiri terrorists. And if domestic terrorists are used, it will be a bit more complex, but unlike Golden Temple, the foreign hand is much more visible.
In all three cases, we will see escalation with Pakistan. The second case in particular, the world will allow India to do anything we want. An attack on a mosque using domestic terrorists is workable though.
There are also other targets, like bus, metro and railway stations, malls, gatherings during upcoming Hindu festivals etc. These are much softer targets than the three you mentioned.
There are two more actually.
1) Holding foreign tourists as hostage. Happened earlier.
2) Holding a group of politicians or Gov Officials hostage. Something like the Iran Embassy hostage crisis.
And mostly the attackers will be Kashmiris from either side.
If an attack takes place it will be under the name of ISIS. It's easy to get away with, pakistan will simply condemn and shed crocodile tears but still say it supports separatists in kashmir. Most probably attack will be on a religious place (to annoy BJP) or military installation (to avenge deaths on their side). Any attack on civilians will simply alienate even the non-kashmiri fringe ppl who have criticized the revocation of 370.
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