India - Pakistan Standoff 2019
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I agree with everything you said. I added that only to remove any doubts others would have.
Sir, I am not saying he is correct or incorrect because I don't have the means to cross verify the same. However his assumptions/statement (not sure how to put it in best way) was that in higher probability, IAF controller had guided MIGs to concerned sector. MIGs had positioned well but PAF was rearranging their position at last minute. During this period somewhere communication contact between both lead MiG and IAF control was broken, most logically due to intense communication blinding techs being enforced. However wing MIG was still in contact. Lead MIG sent massage before being blocked of sightings and went hot as per previous instructions. At this point of time, controller warned them of impending trap being laid but lead MIG was unaware of the situation and went ahead. Wingman got the massage and went cold. Rest all know. Lead MIG fired as well as got hit and subsequent capture. That's all I could gather in his short statement. Please note I have expanded on the brief statement for better understanding. Once again saying I am not aware of exactly what went down and what happened there. That's why I read everybody's posts and opinion, Sir. Thank you.I spoke to a former AWACS Officer, who said there was no AWACS on station.
Then I introduced him to his junior who was the pilot of AWACS that day ....
All the best if you think you will get the correct news from them. Recall the Heli shootdown? Ask @nair what I told him on 27th Feb evening ... confirmed to him that we downed it
But till as such time GoI did not come out with official leaks and statement, I requested him to keep a lid on it.
As of now, when we aren't in a position to prosecute our claims in PoJ&K .Hence, it makes more sense to go piecemeal on them. Do a Balakote & they send their creme de la creme to avenge it while we were unprepared. No problem. Next time, with the benefit of hindsight, let's ambush them. Shoot down a few of their premier aircraft, every time they commit a Pulwama. Such that, we have a guaranteed reprisal every time they commit an outrage. Till such time as they're severely weakened and we are in a position to prosecute our claims in PoJ&K.
Besides, when you speak of bringing our enemy down completely, what exactly are you referring to? It's still not a policy with us to prey on their various fault lines irrespective of what the Pakistanis claim, is it? At least going by OSINT. Whereas, it should've been the case long ago. I suspect our espionage guys are up to it but our political bosses aren't.
Coz the Pakistanis are wellgamed to exploit our fault lines while we still haven't insulated ourselves well enough. Nor are our political masters confident we ever will. Consider the post by @DivineHeretic , we will shame our camp commander for a successful attack but we do little to safeguard our cantonment or bases.
The new ACM has stated that we are in the process of upgrading security of our air bases beginning with Pathankot which will serve as our pilot project. Now it's more than 3 years since the attack on Pathankot air base. We still are in the process of upgrading security there . And we've no idea of whether the IA & IN are conducting similar measures.
Modi has initiated a new response to an old problem. Something which considering the insurgency in Punjab, J&K & the rest of India was long overdue. But we still appear to be clueless as to what we want to do to Pakistan, various statements by senior ministers of this government as to retaking PoJ&K notwithstanding. Why? Age old problem. A floundering economy. Hence, Modi will posture and posture more. A Pulwama redux will be met with a Balakote again. Nothing beyond that.
Tactical gains that too minimal gains appear to be our strategy. We're still awaiting the collapse of Pakistan due to their inherent contradictions. Like Pt Nehru & his colleagues since partition without actively doing something to precipitate it unlike a single exception in 1971, where well begun was half done. We didn't follow through with our destroy Pakistan project. Initiated by Arguably the most cold blooded practitioner of realpolitik in the history of independent India, Indira Gandhi.
My bad, I didn't even see this reply of yours. The air of narcissistic arrogance you have is really something that amuses me. Your comment suggests that somehow only you understand how this world works and people like me have no right to question the armed forces and the government on their failures.
Then explain to me-
You are supportive of the view that it wouldn't have been feasible to go to war after the death of those 40 souls. There was nothing to be gained and would have been a war of attrition. Lets accept that for a moment. Then, explain that 'qatl ki raat' quote you keep talking about. Why is it that we were ready for a war when abhinandan was captured? Did war become feasible overnight? This was the exact line-
So a night before there was nothing of value to be gained, and overnight, after capture of a pilot, war became feasible? Suddenly, the tactical perspective changed, the strategic perspective changed, and achievable goals suddenly started to appear out of thin air.
Let's be real, if war was not feasible after death of 40 soldiers, it suddenly won't become feasible after capture of 1 more human. The reverse of this is, if war was feasible after capture of abhi, then it was feasible before that too. The entire system just didn't have the balls to go ahead. The reason I believe was public pressure wasn't enough and if thats not true, that just means one twisted thing - life of abhi was more important than of those 40 soldiers.
And thats my whole point. We just showed to the whole world that we are happy with some small airstrike after death of 40 soldiers. We reduced the worth of Indian lives ourselves. And the signalling after that was even more confusing. If we were willing to go to war for the 41st life that would have been wasted in this non-sense, it was more due to public optics rather than any human compassion for Indian lives.
Nobody is forcing you to fight a war to avenge the deaths of your fellow countrymen, ghar par baitho, chudiyan pehen kar, aur video games khelo. Be very clear on that. I am ...Let me be very clear. No body has forced you or your family members to join the forces. Be very clear on that. I am ...
Edit- The policies of the government are not written in stone, the way you talked, seems like you are the one making policies for India. Modi, Doval, Shah, RAW/IB chiefs ne tumhe theka nahin diya. So, talking in absolutes is just idiotic. Had there been more public pressure, we would have gone to war. Just goes to show that we as nation have little appetite for war.
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February was NOT the last chance to go to War
February events helped us to make Improvements
Going to war in A Sudden manner and Unprepared State would have caused us More Casualties and Damages
Please read the statements of Gen Bipin Rawat. He had very clearly stated that on 26th Feb, Indian Armed forces were fully prepared for an all out war. No one will ever go to war suddenly. There has to be preparations and forces deployed as per war plans. Pulwama made it very clear to one and all that India will retaliate and this was demanded by even the armed forces. The izzat of paltan is more important and incidents like Uri and Pulwama must be avenged to restore the faith and trust of the combatants in their political leadership and Military Commanders. If we had not avenged Uri and Pulwama, we would have had a demoralised force with little appetite to fight and more of sacrificial Goats. Just remember what Late Parrikar used to say, " Sacrifices are given of Goats and not lions". Our forces are our Lions, they can't be sacrificed at the alter of so called political righteousness.
Armed forces of a nation are the extension of the political will of a nation and its people excercised thru the political leadership at helm. Armed forces have to do what is required of them. Anyone scared of war, need not comment on matters related to war. In a war, there will be casualties but in India, we have lost more men in low intensity conflict over last four decades than what we lost in all wars since Independence. As a nation we have to decide, "Do we want the status quo and keep loosing our men over a period of time or do we have an all out war and stop this ever going attrition and loss of life"? I will choose to fight a war and stop this ever present loss of life and property and fear pshycosis prevalent in the population of my country than sit and talk of flying white pigeons of Aman kee Asha. There is not even a single festival in India which we can celebrate with full fervour. Our festivals are a time for Jihadis to blown us apart in busy markets and streets. Our festivals are no more celebrations of our culture but a time to cry for our dead. This has to stop and this must be stopped. I am prepared to die in a nuke blast provided my future generations are made safe. I do not fear war and I consider war a neccessity when all other means of seeking truce have failed. This is what Lord Krishna said and this is what Dashmeshji Guru Gobind Singhji preached. Thgose who abhor war need to provide and alternative solution to the present scenerio and a plan to stop the madness going on. It is very easy to talk of Killing a nation thru financial action and other such soft kill actions, but do we have the muscle like USA and will other powers which are opposed to India let this happen? Fools are those who think that financial and soft kill options will deliver the required results. They can only allow a swifter outcome but can't replace war and military action. Boots on ground will have to be put to sort out the mess we are in today.
My bad, I didn't even see this reply of yours. The air of narcissistic arrogance you have is really something that amuses me. Your comment suggests that somehow only you understand how this world works and people like me have no right to question the armed forces and the government on their failures.
Then explain to me-
You are supportive of the view that it wouldn't have been feasible to go to war after the death of those 40 souls. There was nothing to be gained and would have been a war of attrition. Lets accept that for a moment. Then, explain that 'qatl ki raat' quote you keep talking about. Why is it that we were ready for a war when abhinandan was captured? Did war become feasible overnight? This was the exact line-
So a night before there was nothing of value to be gained, and overnight, after capture of a pilot, war became feasible? Suddenly, the tactical perspective changed, the strategic perspective changed, and achievable goals suddenly started to appear out of thin air.
Let's be real, if war was not feasible after death of 40 soldiers, it suddenly won't become feasible after capture of 1 more human. The reverse of this is, if war was feasible after capture of abhi, then it was feasible before that too. The entire system just didn't have the balls to go ahead. The reason I believe was public pressure wasn't enough and if thats not true, that just means one twisted thing - life of abhi was more important than of those 40 soldiers.
And thats my whole point. We just showed to the whole world that we are happy with some small airstrike after death of 40 soldiers. We reduced the worth of Indian lives ourselves. And the signalling after that was even more confusing. If we were willing to go to war for the 41st life that would have been wasted in this non-sense, it was more due to public optics rather than any human compassion for Indian lives.
Nobody is forcing you to fight a war to avenge the deaths of your fellow countrymen, ghar par baitho, chudiyan pehen kar, aur video games khelo. Be very clear on that. I am ...
Edit- The policies of the government are not written in stone, the way you talked, seems like you are the one making policies for India. Modi, Doval, Shah, RAW/IB chiefs ne tumhe theka nahin diya. So, talking in absolutes is just idiotic. Had there been more public pressure, we would have gone to war. Just goes to show that we as nation have little appetite for war.
Most of what you say makes sense. Even your shout for war.
Pakistan is currently going through an internal turmoil induced through fifth generation warfare which has the same outcome as conventional war but with minimum loss to India. After Indira Gandhi's marvel to annex East Pakistan in 1971, the current war-in-progress invoked by Modi-Doval duo is a happening event with a promised outcome. Indians need to have patience. We are hitting the last nail in the coffin in the terror perpetrated by Pakistan on India. We will soon be witness to these events.
Pakistani Position against India is Neither Improving Nor Strengthening
So there is NO such Urgency for War
War must be fought in a Cold and Calculating manner
For Revenge of Pulwama and Uri
We have killed a Few Hundred of their Men
In the last Three Years
A large Scale Conflict would Involve Two Things
1 Many More Casualties on our Side
2 Financial Constraints for the Government
And consequently more Taxes
Being a Democracy , we Cannot overlook
The Economic Angle
We have a HUGE example in our Own Recent History
INDIRA GANDHI won us the 1971 war
But the Economic hardships and inflation
In later years led
To Agitations and imposition of Emergency
In 1975
Do you even know the amount of money we have lost in maintaining the additional forces to ward off terror attacks and for security of our establishments and people? Calculate that and than tell me what do you mean by cost? What happens if we take out Pakistan? How many borders will we need to defend and what effect will it have on our armed forces budget and over all security set up within India? A small example, we may not need to raise IAF back to 42 sqns if we take out Pakistan. How much will we save than?
So PAF planners knew about their ability to jam IAF fighters but the IAF pilots weren't trained accordingly?
We know their abilities very well and this game of Jamming and counter jamming is nothing new. It goes on all the time. But please remember that PAF fired a total of seven AMRAAMs, five against the SU, one against the No-2 of Abhi and one against ABHI. The one fired at ABHI was fired from 10kms and it resulted in a kill as ABHI was out of the safe zone and had noone covering his tail. So even after completely botching up the response, IAF still managed to do a very good job. In hind sight we all are very intelligent human beings. But when things hit you and you have to take the actions, many just freeze.So PAF planners knew about their ability to jam IAF fighters but the IAF pilots weren't trained accordingly?
Whether you accept it or Not , the Cost Benefit analysis of War has to be done by the Govt and War has to be Justified to the people
Our people are different than Pakistani people
The Economic Question will always remain paramount
Secondly We can say that Armed Forces
Provide EMPLOYMENT and Security to our people
Un employment is a Real issue in India
The Question of Additional TAXES , In the EVENT of a War cannot be Avoided
Right now , Govt is Cutting Taxes and Interest Rates to boost growth
Can the Economy Absorb the Costs of War
Yes, very much as a lot of money earmarked for future budgets for security will come down.
That will come down if we Remove The People ie Down size
It is easier said than done
First let the Govt Shut down BSNL and MTNL
Isn't the unfortunate pilot to be blamed the most? When we drive we should be putting on our seat belts but we don't always do so.
What would have been our response had Abhinandan not violated his ROEs? More military as @vstol Jockey has said or more on the diplomatic front?
EDIT: Read your post below, confirms what @vstol Jockey has been saying. But whay was NaMo prepared to escalate?
Diplomatic disaster wasn't a concern for the PAF. Wonder what their thought processes are. With the current primacy to the armed forces in Pakistan, true peace is next to impossible unless we have overwhelming superiority across all spheres.
We have it. Even @Falcon had stated on many occassions what I had stated that we will not let Pakistan use its nukes. Pakistan is on a death wish, we are being stupid by denying them a suicide.
He went back and landed. I dont know what happened to him. I will not like to fly with such a No-2 when I am going to be responsible for even his actions and when I am putting my neck on the chopping block.
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