The last census says 126m.
e-Stat is a portal site for Japanese Government Statistics.
www.e-stat.go.jp
If you really have a PhD, you should know better than to extrapolate such data. If someone had extrapolated the same way in 1990, they would have predicted a population of 200m by 2110. The 2017 projection is already higher than the 2012 projection for instance.
No one's having kids, so the graph is underestimating the problem.
These young men are becoming known as Japan's "herbivores" — from the Japanese phrase for "grass-eating boys" — guys who are heterosexual but who say they aren't really interested in matters of the flesh.
Multiple recent surveys suggest that about 60 percent of young Japanese men — in their 20s and early 30s — identify themselves as herbivores.
Japan lost its freedom after WW2 and this is the effect. After the initial explosive growth in GDP, the US managed to put the Japanese in check, post which the societal rules changed so much with the drastic change in their economy that the Japanese people were demoralised and lost interest. In China as well, the people lack a different kind of freedom, so it's happening in China too.
China:
Negative population growth that arrived a decade before forecasts has been exacerbated by Covid and restrictive government policies
www.theguardian.com
Frustrated by increasingly iron-fisted government policies during the Covid lockdowns, young Chinese people have adopted an apathetic “lying flat” philosophy, which encourages a rejection of high-pressure jobs. In their 20s and 30s, many resist doing what is expected of them and instead settle for a low-desire life or move abroad. Having children is the last thing on their minds.
Last year, a video went viral in China showing a young man who refused to be taken into a quarantine camp being warned by police that his punishment would affect his family for three generations. He coolly retorted: “We are the last generation, thank you.”
Hong Kong:
In a city already known for its low sex drive, there is a new generation of men who are uninterested in romance and relationships. Whether technology is distracting them, or it’s the result of work or life pressure, women are feeling left out
www.scmp.com
Studies in Japan estimate that this class of men, normally in their 20s and 30s, account for around 60 per cent to 70 per cent of the male population. Obviously, their reluctance to procreate is a major cause for concern. Japan has had one of lowest birth rates in the world for nearly a decade now.
Now Hong Kong appears to be following in Japan’s footsteps.
“These herbivore men don’t connect with others, they don’t establish their own families or have children and don’t really contribute anything meaningful to society, either tangibly or intangibly,” says Wong. “They are like parasites who often live with their parents. So you can imagine how it’s going to affect society in the long run, socially and economically.”
It's the overall feminisation of men. It's happening in the US as well, even the UK.
US:
The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007. If sustained, this could impact economic growth, productivity, and social insurance programs down the line.
econofact.org
The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007. This decline cannot be explained by demographic, economic, or policy changes.
In Japan, the US crushed their economy in the 90s. In China, the CCP demoralised their people, the same in Hong Kong. In the US, the Democrats' woke agenda has destroyed the family unit, women are now becoming more masculine than men and men want nothing to do with such women.
For things to change back, the current generation must grow old and die out simply 'cause you can't reprogram them. Of course, they will influence the next generation as well, so even their kids need to grow old and die. It's a three-step process, 2 generations dying out and the third coming to power.
Post-colonial India is still in this process. People who were colonised are out of the economy mostly and are dying out now, their kids who are in power today are next in line over the next 20 years. Then a new non-colonised generation will come to power and things will get better, the mindset will change. So we are in the process of entering the third stage, where we will have a massive population of hyper-assertive young people, who are in their 30s and 40s today, making important decisions in 20 years, along with the financial and military muscle to back their assertiveness, and none of them will have any major aftereffects of the colonial era.
Otoh, the advanced economies will see a major decline, starting with Japan, in the same period. Japan's going down first because they lost their freedom. Of course, India will also see this decline, unless society adapts to it by observing the mistakes of others.
I'm not envious of Japan, because I know that India has a far stronger foundation than today's advanced economies that have not had sufficient time to develop said foundations of society, especially the US with their short history, something that has taken India 5000 years. And personally, my life is pretty good, and it will be the same whether I live in the US, Japan or India. I have access to the same opportunities that a regular American or Japanese guy has.
