Indian Economy : News,Discussions & Updates
- Thread starter Butter Chicken
- Start date
-
- Tags
- indian defence forum
Name me one reform the UPA1 undertook. Just one. That is the best time for reforms to be done, when you have good growth (even if pulled by hot liquid phase) and thus keep doing more of what is causing the good growth and better invest/permeate into actual hardware that helps the poorest to improve their basic living. UPA just sat on its hands and did nothing.
So dont you worry, they are never coming back. Regional parties are punching congress in the face now and asking, you want some more?...say the word!
A very good write up on key underlying issue:
Government needs to make debt market accountable and dependable
Government needs to make debt market accountable and dependable
The growth rate during 2009-2011 phase was due to inflow of huge foreign currency into our market and cheaper loan offered to pvt corporates, don't forget the NPA crisis originated in this period only.
I agree with what @Nilgiri said, UPA-1 did very minimal on economic front and UPA-2 was just a spectator becoz it enjoyed good growth numbers due to externalities and when the slowdown happened after 2012, they were completely exposed.
UPA never knew that the actual growth was coming becoz of investment in capacity building by pvt sector, pvt sector misunderstood India's growth as sustainable and continuous one, they built over-capacity and there was no demand after 2012, hence we had to face the NPA and slowdown today.
And Atal Bihari carried reforms of PV Narshimha Rao not MMS. MMS's image is artificially build by media, he is dumb as leader to most of us.
Wrong on interest rate, the black line in following image shows the trend.
I don't know what you mean by huge foreign currency in market if you mean FDI then wrong again.
So factually incorrect on both things you claim drove the growth.
If this is directed to me, let me go one step ahead and say you're free to send me on a permanent vacation. I'd be highly obliged. My views on this are well known to you.
Thanx in advance.
I was going to reply to GND, but I decided not to (I wasnt feeling like it anyway yesterday).
Anyway, I have never called myself "economist", its just interest/hobby of mine (And even that is mostly plateaued).
Suraj post on BR is very interesting take that I agree lot with on context of what macro GDP represents for a developing country compared to what the "90% economy" progress (hard capex + delivery + organisation on basic living condition stuff) really is. Modi correctly focused on the latter as first instrumental thing, and it has reflected in the votes for sure in recent election:
2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1 - Bharat Rakshak
Just remember majority of GDP is propelled by the 10% of people, it is inevitable in any growth/industrialisation phase....and is (number wise) very sensitive to how you measure it.
So it is not all that reflective in first place of what the bigger "progress" is for majority of ppl. When India hits more than 10 - 15k USD per capita (i.e almost everyone in the 90% is around some level of international level of middle class), maybe then we can start to put GDP as the first most important thing. Till then it is a somewhat overrated metric for India. Of course it will be of concern if it drops below say 5% growth consistently or something like that. Anything above that, India is doing fine and should be focusing on getting physical hard investment in and good smooth credit flow (and improving all insitutions and legal/standards framework to be efficient as possible) ....so there is maximum job. productivity and know-how transmittance (and as broad as possible) from the wealth creation.
Modi must delegate well and his delegates must also delegate + monitor well. That's all that can really be done there on macro-front. So Modi energy is definitely best used on specific programs like swaach bharat, gas connection, rural banking etc and the real crucial delivery of specific items....that are not really huge budget items for govt BUT definitely just needed that kicking into gear/organisation so there is very good focused delivery on those key aspects (that really dont materialise in GDP cost/calculation till much later from the social improvement). This is exactly the kind of thing that India missed out on for a long time....whereas China (esp under Deng) really focused on for good 10 - 20 years in 80s and 90s....but its not as "appealing" to talk about compared to the huge macro SEZ + factories + exports + investment etc etc that everyone thinks is automatic magic-wand answer.
Anyway, I have never called myself "economist", its just interest/hobby of mine (And even that is mostly plateaued).
Suraj post on BR is very interesting take that I agree lot with on context of what macro GDP represents for a developing country compared to what the "90% economy" progress (hard capex + delivery + organisation on basic living condition stuff) really is. Modi correctly focused on the latter as first instrumental thing, and it has reflected in the votes for sure in recent election:
2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1 - Bharat Rakshak
Just remember majority of GDP is propelled by the 10% of people, it is inevitable in any growth/industrialisation phase....and is (number wise) very sensitive to how you measure it.
So it is not all that reflective in first place of what the bigger "progress" is for majority of ppl. When India hits more than 10 - 15k USD per capita (i.e almost everyone in the 90% is around some level of international level of middle class), maybe then we can start to put GDP as the first most important thing. Till then it is a somewhat overrated metric for India. Of course it will be of concern if it drops below say 5% growth consistently or something like that. Anything above that, India is doing fine and should be focusing on getting physical hard investment in and good smooth credit flow (and improving all insitutions and legal/standards framework to be efficient as possible) ....so there is maximum job. productivity and know-how transmittance (and as broad as possible) from the wealth creation.
Modi must delegate well and his delegates must also delegate + monitor well. That's all that can really be done there on macro-front. So Modi energy is definitely best used on specific programs like swaach bharat, gas connection, rural banking etc and the real crucial delivery of specific items....that are not really huge budget items for govt BUT definitely just needed that kicking into gear/organisation so there is very good focused delivery on those key aspects (that really dont materialise in GDP cost/calculation till much later from the social improvement). This is exactly the kind of thing that India missed out on for a long time....whereas China (esp under Deng) really focused on for good 10 - 20 years in 80s and 90s....but its not as "appealing" to talk about compared to the huge macro SEZ + factories + exports + investment etc etc that everyone thinks is automatic magic-wand answer.
I have always seen you approach economy from finance point of view, that's why your replies are always full of terms like capacity building, capex, some threshold to be broken and similar stuff. Are you a finance guy or your interest in economy started after finance/stock market?
This I can totally agree with.
Apparently there is going to be a nationwide piped drinking water program as well, targeted to be finished within 2022. This is going to be a hell of a lot harder than nationwide electricity supply. Let me see if I can find something on it.