Indian Economy : News,Discussions & Updates

LoneWolfSandeep said:
You are missing the big picture, its not about a specific thing I am against. I only call for more professionalism & better execution, with a well thought out plan. And am against people celebrating even failures as achievements - that's pure blindness.
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I am not missing the big picture. I am simply suggesting to have better clarity over topic before jumping into any conclusion. Personally I would prefer to get the data and analyze it rather than blindly accept the analysis of so called economic experts.

Just like covering failure of some government is wrong, similarly blaming the government for something which is beyond it's control is equally wrong, if not more. The primary reason for fall in export during 2014-2018 was fall in oil price. Two major sectors of Indian exports are processed Petroleum products and gems and jewelry. When oil price started going down, obviously the overall value of exported Petro products also went down. The slowdown of oil producing countries also impacted the gems and jewelry exports. There is little Indian government could have done in that situation.

However, Indian government did a good job in the area of electronics assembly and it has lots of potential for export. India never had the ecosystem for efficient manufacturing. This government is trying hard to put the building blocks in place (Easy taxation system, cheap capital, land, transport infrastructure, friendly labor laws). Some are done, some are in progress and some are yet to be started like labor law reforms. In a country like India nothing moves fast and we need to be realistic in our expectation.
 
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Bali78 said:
I am not missing the big picture. I am simply suggesting to have better clarity over topic before jumping into any conclusion. Personally I would prefer to get the data and analyze it rather than blindly accept the analysis of so called economic experts.

Just like covering failure of some government is wrong, similarly blaming the government for something which is beyond it's control is equally wrong, if not more. The primary reason for fall in export during 2014-2018 was fall in oil price. Two major sectors of Indian exports are processed Petroleum products and gems and jewelry. When oil price started going down, obviously the overall value of exported Petro products also went down. The slowdown of oil producing countries also impacted the gems and jewelry exports. There is little Indian government could have done in that situation.

However, Indian government did a good job in the area of electronics assembly and it has lots of potential for export. India never had the ecosystem for efficient manufacturing. This government is trying hard to put the building blocks in place (Easy taxation system, cheap capital, land, transport infrastructure, friendly labor laws). Some are done, some are in progress and some are yet to be started like labor law reforms. In a country like India nothing moves fast and we need to be realistic in our expectation.
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Oh i cover failure of both Congress & BJP alike & celebrate both there successes when it happens, 70% times I am with BJP & its change agenda. I don't get hung-ho in, even if govt hides stats or figures, but economy is always so interlinked, its easy to come to know what's wrong, even if country changes the GDP calculation mythology to avoid giving the opposition a chance to say I said so. While I support both demonetization & GST, I am against the way it was executed. the Destruction of Unorganised Industrial sector, govt could have created a special cell/support group to ensure these companies get a fair chance to continue operations & migrate to organized, but it didn't, as govt was busy, it had dived in & was now learning to swim, with daily new notification, of what to do, in a collapsed system.
This Unorganized Industrial sector collapse had a domino effect on Unofficial banking sector near collapse presently, which in turn will have domino effect on Banking sector in near future.
You will get present day leaders blaming the collapse in Unofficial banking sector & share how banking sector can collapse due to it in near future, causing liquidity crunch, but no one will divulge how & why Unofficial banking sector collapsed?? so you see I don't jumping to conclusion, without studying the matter in detail, that's a wrong averment.
Having said that Congress is not half as driven as BJP.
 
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LoneWolfSandeep said:
Oh i cover failure of both Congress & BJP alike & celebrate both there successes when it happens, 70% times I am with BJP & its change agenda. I don't get hung-ho in, even if govt hides stats or figures, but economy is always so interlinked, its easy to come to know what's wrong, even if country changes the GDP calculation mythology to avoid giving the opposition a chance to say I said so. While I support both demonetization & GST, I am against the way it was executed. the Destruction of Unorganised Industrial sector, govt could have created a special cell/support group to ensure these companies get a fair chance to continue operations & migrate to organized, but it didn't, as govt was busy, it had dived in & was now learning to swim, with daily new notification, of what to do, in a collapsed system.
This Unorganized Industrial sector collapse had a domino effect on Unofficial banking sector near collapse presently, which in turn will have domino effect on Banking sector in near future.
You will get present day leaders blaming the collapse in Unofficial banking sector & share how banking sector can collapse due to it in near future, causing liquidity crunch, but no one will divulge how & why Unofficial banking sector collapsed?? so you see I don't jumping to conclusion, without studying the matter in detail.
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Dude..Relax :). I was just trying to point out that the current government actually did a reasonably good job in some export sectors and does not deserve all the blame it received in media for the fall in overall export numbers.
You have mentioned quite a few areas and each of them need a lot of analysis and discussion. It's being Friday night I am not in a mood for some serious discussions :D. Let's catch up some other time.

BTW, I was not pointing you for jumping into conclusion.
 
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Bali78 said:
Dude..Relax :). I was just trying to point out that the current government actually did a reasonably good job in some export sectors and does not deserve all the blame it received in media for the fall in overall export numbers.
You have mentioned quite a few areas and each of them need a lot of analysis and discussion. It's being Friday night I am not in a mood for some serious discussions :D. Let's catch up some other time.

BTW, I was not pointing you for jumping into conclusion.
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Bro.. I agree on that front, BJP is lot better than Congress presently.
 
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LoneWolfSandeep said:
Many times people support one party so blindly, that whatever the party they support do, seem correct to them & whatever the opposite party does seems wrong. I have seen that a lot in my family, with opposite view points in extremes & from a young age I came to conclusion, no one/party can be always right & other always wrong. And hence I always balanced on issue based, balanced between 2 parties which is more right & which has better direction. So I support BJP presently, but don't shy away from calling a spade a spade.
Look at the stats you presented above - the figure you are boosting as shining example as surge of electronic exports, from 2014-2017 (4 year tenure of modi govt) the exports has been below, earlier pathetic rule under UPA2 which was a paralyses govt. Only in last year it reached 2011 figures.
The difference is you are celebrating that & I am not.

While you & Me both celebrate the direction Modi govt is taking, I don't lose sight that a good intent, needs a equally good execution & that is lacking & I say it unapologetically.

And yes a unqualified economist don't automatically make for good FM as you said, the yes ministers & ji hajuri is till prevalent in ministry. Half baked knowledge often is extremely dangerous.
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I said "good"...not "very good or excellent"...forget "perfect" for BJP/Modi.

I dont use absolutes ever, I just judge on best option there.

I don't celebrate UPA failure, if they did a good job, I'd support them too. But they had the worst policy failure and it took serious toll on India (on the level of a trillion or two today in nominal USD GDP), because they didnt learn we need more post-91...and not more pre-91.

Where did I say "surge" in electronic exports? Heh...I clearly said "just starting a recovery out of doldrums". You would have to look at capex inertia lag (for the sector and most sectors generally) to know why this is the case. If you recover credit cycle and improve capital capex flows, it takes matter of years for results to come through....hence why I said lets not be premature to say BJP has "executed" badly.

I'd have given UPA major marks (on execution) if they whipped into gear for UPA 2 (say as the waning/stagnation started to manifest and they learned from their major mistakes in UPA 1) rather than bunker down in bad policy and more stasis.
 
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Nilgiri said:
I said "good"...not "very good or excellent"...forget "perfect" for BJP/Modi.

I dont use absolutes ever, I just judge on best option there.

I don't celebrate UPA failure, if they did a good job, I'd support them too. But they had the worst policy failure and it took serious toll on India (on the level of a trillion or two today in nominal USD GDP), because they didnt learn we need more post-91...and not more pre-91.

Where did I say "surge" in electronic exports? Heh...I clearly said "just starting a recovery out of doldrums". You would have to look at capex inertia lag (for the sector and most sectors generally) to know why this is the case. If you recover credit cycle and improve capital capex flows, it takes matter of years for results to come through....hence why I said lets not be premature to say BJP has "executed" badly.

I'd have given UPA major marks (on execution) if they whipped into gear for UPA 2 (say as the waning/stagnation started to manifest and they learned from their major mistakes in UPA 1) rather than bunker down in bad policy and more stasis.
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What ‘mistakes, in UPA 1? Under UPA India grew for 9% for 3 years and then hovered around 8%. If what I heard about bjp yesterday is true don’t expect much in nda 2. Next 5 years are a lost cause.
 
Guynextdoor said:
What ‘mistakes, in UPA 1? Under UPA India grew for 9% for 3 years and then hovered around 8%. If what I heard about bjp yesterday is true don’t expect much in nda 2. Next 5 years are a lost cause.
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At that time the entire world was growing at very high rates thanks to the banking derrivatives scam. Also UPA1 benefited from the infrastructure push from Vajpayee govt. it takes a few years for infra improvements to translate to growth.
 
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Bali78 said:
I am not missing the big picture. I am simply suggesting to have better clarity over topic before jumping into any conclusion. Personally I would prefer to get the data and analyze it rather than blindly accept the analysis of so called economic experts.

Just like covering failure of some government is wrong, similarly blaming the government for something which is beyond it's control is equally wrong, if not more. The primary reason for fall in export during 2014-2018 was fall in oil price. Two major sectors of Indian exports are processed Petroleum products and gems and jewelry. When oil price started going down, obviously the overall value of exported Petro products also went down. The slowdown of oil producing countries also impacted the gems and jewelry exports. There is little Indian government could have done in that situation.

However, Indian government did a good job in the area of electronics assembly and it has lots of potential for export. India never had the ecosystem for efficient manufacturing. This government is trying hard to put the building blocks in place (Easy taxation system, cheap capital, land, transport infrastructure, friendly labor laws). Some are done, some are in progress and some are yet to be started like labor law reforms. In a country like India nothing moves fast and we need to be realistic in our expectation.
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Yes. You should never accept the analysis if experts who are actually experts in their field.
 
Manhunt said:
At that time the entire world was growing at very high rates thanks to the banking derrivatives scam. Also UPA1 benefited from the infrastructure push from Vajpayee govt. it takes a few years for infra improvements to translate to growth.
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Yes. In 2008-2009 when Lehman brothers went bankrupt in the biggest financial crisis of our history and dragged the world into the gutters for 5 years the 'whole world was actually growing due to the scam'

I knew that the shaka was rewriting human history but not like this. @Nilgiri you should factor this into your analysis too.
 
Manhunt said:
At that time the entire world was growing at very high rates thanks to the banking derrivatives scam. Also UPA1 benefited from the infrastructure push from Vajpayee govt. it takes a few years for infra improvements to translate to growth.
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That's not very true, average growth rate of world is similar to before but we are concerned with our export destinations and trade partners. That time US (largest growth driver of world) was under serious stress and today it is growing like a developing economy. Though low oil prices did have negative effect on our exports but it also reduced our import bill and it's domino effect improved macro economic indicators.

We kind of missed the opportunity to take advantage of US-China trade war and instead smaller south east asian countries have tried more. We still have some chance but so far I don't see any major push to invite those industries in India. We seems content with whatever is our growth because it's not an issue under discussion both on media and in public discourse.
 
India factory activity grows at fastest pace in three months in May: PMI

The survey found increased optimism about manufacturing activity over the coming year, probably helped as Prime Minister Narendra Modi scored a dramatic election victory on a mandate of business-friendly policies and a tough stand on national security.

First Published on Jun 3, 2019 10:51 am
Last Updated : Jun 03, 2019 10:54 AM IST

Reuters
@moneycontrolcom

1559575745033.png


India's manufacturing sector expanded at its quickest pace in three months in May on improved output and new orders, according to a private business survey which also showed a pick up in hiring.

The survey found increased optimism about manufacturing activity over the coming year, probably helped as Prime Minister Narendra Modi scored a dramatic election victory on a mandate of business-friendly policies and a tough stand on national security.

Almost 70% of responses were collected after exit polls showed Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party would return to power for a second term.

The Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index increased to 52.7 in May from April's eight-month low of 51.8, remaining above the 50-mark threshold that separates growth from contraction for a 22nd straight month.

"A revival in new order growth promoted a faster upturn in manufacturing production, as Indian firms sought to replenish inventories utilised in May to fulfill strengthening demand," Pollyanna De Lima, principal economist at IHS Markit, said in a release.

The new business orders sub-index, which tracks overall demand, rose as foreign demand increased at the fastest pace in three months. Output also grew at the strongest rate since February.

That led firms to increase the pace of hiring from the previous month when headcount was barely changed.

"To assist with higher output needs, and benefit from relatively muted cost inflation, companies stepped up hiring and input purchasing," De Lima said.

"Goods producers were also able to charge competitive prices due to negligible increases in their cost burdens, meaning not only higher sales in the domestic market, but also greater overseas demand."

Although input costs increased at a stronger pace in May, manufacturers did not pass on those pressures to customers and instead trimmed prices for the first time since December. The output prices sub index dropped to 49.9 from 50.8.

That will help keep retail inflation muted and well below the Reserve Bank of India's 4% target, increasing the likelihood of an interest rate cut at the next policy review on June 6.

If the central bank cuts rates this week, as expected, it would mark the third consecutive easing in as many meetings.
India factory activity grows at fastest pace in three months in May: PMI
 
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