It always seemed to me that the RCEP is a bad idea.
India registers trade deficit with 11 RCEP members in 2018-19
India registers trade deficit with 11 RCEP members in 2018-19
Indian Economy : News,Discussions & Updates
- Thread starter Butter Chicken
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I agree with you 100% Swatch Bharat - public toilets etc have been the phenomenal success, with wide ranging benefits to consciously progress India towards being ODF by building millions of such toilets near human habitat, covering the poor segment & social awareness.
But when it comes to other things - the key part to ask is what is the CRITERIA??
Example - A Village can be deemed Electrified - if in the whole of village there is one single pole having solar panel & one single light bulb. Does that mean everyone in village can get electricity - No. Such exercise often don't last long as bulb will get fused & battery etc will die over time. The classification of success, sometimes ends up nothing but a PR exercise. I consider a village as truly electrified, when transmission lines link up to be able to provide service.
So when I hear Nationwide Piped drinking water - I don't think it can even be done in top 100 cities in India by 2022. Piped water & Piped Drinking water, is two different things. Even with piped water, hell I hope the target is not a single tap in village, like electrified village, to be considered as achieved.
So what is the CRITERIA I say??? Is anyone asking???
When will it be humanly safe to have piped drinking water in my City - New Delhi?? I have drunk piped drinking water in states & UK. Just never in my own country, as its never within global recognized safe limits....
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100% agree Trade is good, but not all trade deals are good. RCEP will be at expense of Indian Industry & the gain be only South East Asian countries, including China.
India joining RCEP will be Monumental Blunder
Let me explain further, its a free Trade Deal right, so lets explore -
Are India Corporate Tax competitive to these countries?? No That's why USA-China Trade war & many companies are migrating to Vietnam, Thailand of 20% corporate Tax etc.
If its a Free trade, why will industries even manufacture here, when they can do so with less cost & less tax elsewhere & still import to India as if its locally produced?
Other than taxes, what is the cost of acquiring land & setting up industry Vs others?
What about Infrastructure - is it fast, smooth enough, Is cost of electricity for Industry competitive to China etc
Labour Laws, Average time for Dispute settlement etc
What is currently going for us is huge economy & huge consumption market - why we giving it away to others, then what is left here? How long will economy survive, if its fully dependent in imports, as we killed everything we had going for us, by joining RCEP.
Hope good sense prevails & we never join
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The extrapolation graph is wrong. It shows almost similar growth rates for India and Japan. That's impossible.
I agree with all that, I must add that most of the villages in my state have piped water supply(not all of them, I am sure but most of them). Not drinking water, but flowing clean water and yes they are, as you mentioned, a single line for say about 5-8 families. As demand rose people brought their own water pump for water suppy and the likes of PureIt and AquaGuard for drinking water.
Well I don't have much resources to give you about the piped water supply. Here's all I have at the moment :
This resource can help the Indian economy reach $5 trillion
Government forms 'Jal Shakti' Ministry by merging Water Resources and Drinking Water Ministries
It talks about Ganga cleaning but not water supply. I suppose more details will emerge eventually. I'll post them when they emerge.
It is showing GDP size not growth rate, it is possible to have positive growth rate but GDP size decreasing (ex- Pakistan) or remain stagnant due to variation in currency (unless you are USA).
Japanese Yen remain in particular price band however Indian Rupee is not so stable and shows irreversible depreciation at regular interval.
You are also not taking into account the base effect of present GDP size of both countries.
My dear friend, Ganga cleaning has always been & will remain in future a SCAM conducted by Powers in Gov, as the masses is foolish. Its unaccountable unverifiable free money.
Lets approach the problem logically -
Ganga length - 2525km
Average speed in higher regions - 25-30 kmph.
Average speed in plains water - 4 kmph
Even though Ganga covers a large distance, where it flows quite fast & covers a vast distance, lets assume average speed is 10 kmph, that will mean in 250 hrs it reaches sea (self resets to totally fresh water from hills), just over 10 days
At extremely conservative speed close to 5km it still do a cycle reset in 20days.
This I have given only as a example. As in reality water flows at different speed in different depths. it doesn't matter, if it even takes a month, but you get the point.
Ganga river is not a stagnant lake, that it can be one time cleaned.
Ganga is dirty as sewerage water & industrial waste is added to its mix, in various way points, to make it permanently contaminated, poisonous & arsenic, which even slowly pollutes even ground water & adds dangerous levels of lead etc and other things even in vegetables we grow & eat later, of pumped out ground water by farmers.
So you can never clean ganga by combing it, to clean ganga, each city should have a appropriate size sewerage cleaning plant, so none is added to river & each industrial region to have its own water treatment plants to remove chemicals.
Once no sewerage is dumped in Ganga it will self clean, in less than a month.
So ask your self where did Rs6000Cr go in last 4 years to clean ganga, pour in another $200billion & it still be the same, as there was never a real intent to clean it in first place. Do you think govt & water ministry babus are so dumb they don't know why it gets dirty in first place?
Be it congress or BJP its the same deal to earn unaccountable unverifiable money, with babus making a kick too on the side.
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Well that's true. Nobody is clean. But the sewerage treatment isn't completely ignored :
From Feb 2019 : https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/environment/pollution/zero-sewer-discharge-in-ganga-in-varanasi-by-nov/articleshow/67817061.cms
From Nov 2018: https://www.businesstoday.in/top-story/clean-ganga-mission-gets-a-boost-varanasi-sewage-plant-to-clean-14-crore-litres-of-wastewater-everyday/story/290359.html
Another from Nov 2018: https://yourstory.com/2018/11/ganga-clean-up-gets-major-boost
Of course this being India there are implementation and possible corruption problems :
From May 2019 : Only 10 of 100 new sewage projects on Ganga have been completed
This perhaps captures the best picture of the problem, lack of long term planning, red tape etc : From 2017 : Ganga pollution: ‘Just building sewage treatment plants is not enough to clean the river’
I just use terms like that because they are accessible since people generally have come into contact with finance world more than general economics world etc. My interest in Economics started long before finance interest in my case...and economists use lot of words/terms that is not really that known by others.
In a way Economics like you say is more the "science" and finance is more the "engineering" side of it.
Capex etc, is all lingo i picked up later...but they represent very much the same thing economists may have more formal term for.
I am reminded in engineering, my friend in 1st year didn't get the "moment" terminology at all, or what was going on in the significance of certain things we were learning/applying in mechanics 101.....and then finally someone said its the same thing as torque..and there was no further issue. Sometimes simple "more used" word can help a lot for sure.
We have surpassed Germany and Japan in total economic size some while ago. GDP in PPP is much better measure of it:
Indian economy is essentially just not flush as much as others with USD liquidity so its USD valuation (using exchange rate) takes a knock.
As India opens up more and integrates more of its economy with world more (and gains more % world/USD liquidity inside and more INR liquidity present outside of total etc), this difference will diminish with time.
Its just in current dollars. That includes all kind of things like inflation and currency appreciation etc. You will notice a lot is simply Japan returning to an earlier achieved liquidity valuation (in USD)....there is pent up pressure there from lot of post-industrial-growth phase going on with Japan (they have immense pension plan stockpiles in accumulated wealth for example that seep out as needed as govt lever dictates).
It is very different to GDP (esp current dollars wise) to India which is charting a new level each year.
Another reason why PPP is superior reference point.
I am talking about the slope of the extrapolation curve. Yes, the base effect of both GDPs needed to be taken into account. Apart from base size, some other factors needed to be taken into account like inflation, demography, dependency on export etc. Overall the projected GDP for Japan is too high. As far as stability of Yen is concerned, it has been fluctuating in the same range (25%) as rupee for last 5 years.
For the 1st part:
I was wrong here for using the word "cheaper", my mistake, but the pvt sectors took loans at higher rates and created over capacity without understanding the nature of the growth.
For 2nd part:
I didn't meant FDI only, but whole foreign currency in-flow, which includes NRI deposits,FIIs & others. The inflow resulted in inflation in real estate and FIIs were very active during this period. e.g.FII inflows hit record Rs 80,000 cr-mark in 2009
This particular period proved that Indian economy is very much coupled with World economy.