Indian Economy : News,Discussions & Updates
- Thread starter Butter Chicken
- Start date
-
- Tags
- indian defence forum
In simpler terms wholesale destruction!
Of course I was waiting for this headline, when power gets into the head of rulers they get funny ideas again and again. That's the reason why we needed strong opposition to sanitize Modiji of funny ideas but here we are.
Top posts in IAS already privatised where you can set your own people as there is no criteria, government hiring is gone while departments struggle with lack of manpower. NITI Aayog recently tabled reports for reducing age limit for exams so as to throw away people out on road, more such reports to be executed. Offical stats om unemployment killed to hide the effect of Big Bang reform Demonetization. Fixing poverty line is removed so as not to give ammunition to opposition like Modiji himself used those stats. Vendors in Defence deals and other deals are provided right motivation to pick a particular partner, to pay for expenses of election, while we keyboard warriors help Modiji to clean his image and discredit anyone asking about it.
India should be ready for big band screams, Modiji is going to shove acche din down your throat.
The state of the economy being what it is, a bitter dose of medicine is called for. Who here will deny that our economy isn't in the best of health or that the banking sector is severely stressed or that the NBFC sector is on the verge of collapse or that agriculture isn't providing sustainable income or that labour reforms are urgently needed or that exports are falling since the last 5 years or that land reforms ought to a priority too? Let me tag @Nilgiri ; @Milspec ; @Shajida Khan ; @Pundrick ; @LoneWolfSandeep
I wont criticize them prehand, but I will hope they do well though out, groundwork first and play special focus on implementation. Two things that has been missing in past Demonetization & GST. A good idea can have disastrous consequences too, without these, when done in a hurry, of dive in first & learn to swim later approach. Will they this time hire professionals & take there advice on how best to do it seamlessly is the question. Or will it be a top down dictat again with no time to prepare & then keep changing notification daily, in trying to figure out what's to be done as the system is so broken.
I like to give the benefit of doubt to Modi JI in 2.0 that he will evolve & learn from old mistakes - a good intent. equally needs a good execution.
Last edited:
Yep that's the same Unorganised Industrial sector now completely gone causing unemployment surge (example I always give is where are the Rs 5/10/20 plastic fly beater), post demonetization, when they didn't get time to migrate to organized & keep operations running, with no govt directive that time, on how to assist them in there operations, so they don't go out of business completely. The same thing which lead to presently Shadow banking collapse in making, which can inturn then lead to possible Banking Sector collapse 2-3 years down horizon, requiring immediate liquidity correction.
Last edited:
That's the official data BTW, the same government denied, lied so as not to let it become election issue.
Thanks to media that asked more pertinent questions like Modiji aap Aam kaat k khate hain ya choos k? Modiji aap itne handsome kaise hain? Modiji aap 25 ghante kaam kaise kar lete hain?
The unemployment news was incomplete without this-
India's Economic Growth Drops To 5.8% In March Quarter, Behind China
Really disappointed in choice of FM. BJP govt needs a world class economist & fast.. If they want to make a tree or sheep Finance minister due to political compulsion fine, but have brain behind or team of brain, creating a think tank, to function in proxy.
If Jaishankar can be brought in, then surely they can bring in a Noble prize winner Indian origin economist or renewed economist in team too
If Jaishankar can be brought in, then surely they can bring in a Noble prize winner Indian origin economist or renewed economist in team too
The only hope I have of this news being incorrect is that it's published from The Wire. Otherwise it's very probable.
I hope all that money govt might get from privatising PSU going in capital expenditure in Infrastructure projects.
But selling too much in one go, creates a demand supply problem, it wont get half as much revenue if it was a gradual process of continuous basis. But I assume, it implies selling PSU for foreign investor too in competitive bidding, to get a fair price on each sale.
We don't know exactly how govt plans it to be executed, so keeping finger crossed.
Last edited:
From the PoV of politics, I'm betting that from now till the UP elections, you're going to see a lot of tough & unpleasant decisions on the economic front. Post which you'd see tough decisions on the political front like NRC, Ram Janmabhoomi, Article 35A, Article 370, etc. to bolster their "Nationalist " Credentials. Plus with Giraraj Singh, Sanjeev Balyan & Prataap Sarangi in the animal husbandry & dairy development ministry, I really don't know what to expect there in terms of further tightening of cow protection laws & consequent polarization of the electorate on this front.
Well Banking and NBFC issues could have been addressed by giving some more teeth to SEBI to bite.
The unemployment is just capturing more of the persistent underemployment that has been hallmark of Indian labour scene a long time now.
Glad better standards are being used now by NSSO. Mind you they need to keep reforming this and improving on it....maybe 20% of labour is formalised/salaried at best.
And then this rubbish media compares it all apples to apples with the earlier crappier standard (which meant squat to begin with) and says "surge"...lol.
Joblessness at 45-year high, but NSO adds a caveat | India News - Times of India
The report released on Friday by the National Statistics Office (NSO) said the new labour force survey needs to be seen as a new series for measuring employment and unemployment on annual basis.
“This is a new design and uses new metric and it would be unfair to compare it with the past,” Pravin Srivastava, the country’s chief statistician told reporters while releasing the report, a day after the Narendra Modi government was sworn-in. He denied that there was any political pressure to delay releasing the report.
==========
I don't think you understand what a FM role is. The "economists" work underneath...its best their names are not known.
The last thing India needs is a "world class" economist as a FM or PM. 10 years were thrown down the drain last time....because of silent "world class" type just saying "yes ma'am" to some waitress lady....instead of using the hot money boom to take at least some incremental reform on labour and business and investment norms.
==========
Has Indian economy ever been "in health" in modern memory?
This is just another inflection point for ICU recovery (from centuries of pilfering and ransacking by foreigners) like any other.
How is NBFC on the verge of collapse? Credit scene is sensitive to NBFC performance...doesnt mean "collapse". Its a cycle that will be ridden out after being stabilised from a few shocks.
Look, Modi tried something big with formalisation (demonetisation and GST)...and now the follow up reforms have the mandate.
This is far far superior to having UPA do nothing for 5 years, let a massive asset bubble form (because status quo stronk! dont kick anything!) and then have it implode all over the place and then divert federal funding to supply side subsidies for the next 5 years.
Don't know where the exports are falling for 5 years is coming from:
Exports of goods and services (current US$) | Data
Exports hit record in FY19, surpass earlier FY14 peak - Times of India ►
It's about the best one could hope for given the absolute wreck inherited from UPA.
Too many of you follow each and every number as though this is some constant series of data (when there are major breaks and even questionable applicability given India is just entering another phase of economic volume per person) and constant standard reference with other countries too (which follow far different models - some neutral economists for example say a full half of China's growth figures are unsubstantiated).
What matters is the broad reforms (govt retreating and focusing on what its "economic" role is) to give the Indian economy the best chance at using broad-spectrum stuff (data, tech, information, capital) to improve itself with more efficiency. It was allowed to happen only partially for 10 year UPA admin...Modi is kicking it to another gear now. People get this deep down...and also different numbers have different relevance to their living condition.
Simply ask why Indian economy growing in USD terms by 30% one year (I think it was 2007) under UPA produced utterly nothing relevant in capex for rural distress the same UPA says only created/surged now? But Modi with 4% inherited base growth (at best)...creates toilets and gas connections for rural folk? - Something that should have been done back in the 60s and 70s? What exactly arrived in the tech scene under Modi that UPA couldnt have done to create direct benefit transfer system for any subsidy program instead of just paying producers big lump sums (and thus benefitting the biggest consumers rather than the poor - exacerbating the asset inflation in the end). You tell me which economic "growth rate" was better in the end? The govt can increase growth rate to 10% or even higher right now...but actual people will suffer a tremendous amount for it.
Growth rates and employment rates only mean so much when their own defintion/standards/computations were somewhat meaningless before and are improving/reforming now....illustrating deep set problems better.....but the people doing the reforms get the stick for showing the reality?...and then people compare as a constant series (with no context) on top of it? If it was so bad, Indian people are that stupid to vote the same guy in? Or occam's razor suggests that the "numbers" only apply so much to the actual macro-reality on what economics even is fundamentally about (no it is not a "GDP" thing at all).
The biggest modern economic expansions of the world in history came also with the largest noise and criticism (by cherry picking whatever negativity).....where such a thing was allowed (you can look at what the news were like in the western world which had democracy and freedom of the press during the 19th and 20th centuries for their major economic expansion periods....it was all about unemployment, things shutting down, people in distress, people exploited etc etc...simply thats what can sell the most headlines). Its all part and parcel of being a democracy.
As long as Modi and his team do the best they can with what they got...I'll be happy. The first term was good...and lot now rests on this term to prove it more.
Putting some NDA 1, UPA 1, UPA 2 and Modi 1 (up to 2017) into context:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.IND.MANF.CD?end=2017&locations=IN&start=1960&view=chart
Manufacturing, value added (constant 2010 US$) | Data
2010 - 2013 were the serious terrible years of lost opportunity given you can project a ramp (if things just kept going at similar rate as before) and what would be the added realized production in today terms.
2014 onwards you can also see the uptick/recovery...let us see the 2018 - 2020 figures though for more clarification if the trend is finally recovering.
I know for one electronics is actually being exported close to 10 billion now....it is just starting to recover from the doldrums:
A make in India success story: Big surge in exports of electronics items, imports also at record high
I mean that is just so frigging horrid! The missed out opportunity there, what is that a good 6 years or so?
If UPA got two terms for our verdict on them (that got us into this mess big time), Modi needs that same time at least for our equivalent verdict on him. He needs to go fully supply side reform big time now as much as he can, I heard that in 2020/2021 they will even have rajya sabha majority, so there should be no excuse for not doing deep set reforms.
Indian economy has bulked up, its no longer going to get the low base effect that was enjoyed by the 91 reforms (which were also super obvious reforms). It is more a heavy diesel engine now for things to register to throttle/load settings....its not a 800 cc maruti engine anymore
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.IND.MANF.CD?end=2017&locations=IN&start=1960&view=chart
Manufacturing, value added (constant 2010 US$) | Data
2010 - 2013 were the serious terrible years of lost opportunity given you can project a ramp (if things just kept going at similar rate as before) and what would be the added realized production in today terms.
2014 onwards you can also see the uptick/recovery...let us see the 2018 - 2020 figures though for more clarification if the trend is finally recovering.
I know for one electronics is actually being exported close to 10 billion now....it is just starting to recover from the doldrums:
A make in India success story: Big surge in exports of electronics items, imports also at record high
I mean that is just so frigging horrid! The missed out opportunity there, what is that a good 6 years or so?
If UPA got two terms for our verdict on them (that got us into this mess big time), Modi needs that same time at least for our equivalent verdict on him. He needs to go fully supply side reform big time now as much as he can, I heard that in 2020/2021 they will even have rajya sabha majority, so there should be no excuse for not doing deep set reforms.
Indian economy has bulked up, its no longer going to get the low base effect that was enjoyed by the 91 reforms (which were also super obvious reforms). It is more a heavy diesel engine now for things to register to throttle/load settings....its not a 800 cc maruti engine anymore
Many times people support one party so blindly, that whatever the party they support do, seem correct to them & whatever the opposite party does seems wrong. I have seen that a lot in my family, with opposite view points in extremes & from a young age I came to conclusion, no one/party can be always right & other always wrong. And hence I always balanced on issue based, balanced between 2 parties which is more right & which has better direction. So I support BJP presently, but don't shy away from calling a spade a spade.Putting some NDA 1, UPA 1, UPA 2 and Modi 1 (up to 2017) into context:
Manufacturing, value added (current US$) | Data
Manufacturing, value added (constant 2010 US$) | Data
2010 - 2013 were the serious terrible years of lost opportunity given you can project a ramp (if things just kept going at similar rate as before) and what would be the added realized production in today terms.
2014 onwards you can also see the uptick/recovery...let us see the 2018 - 2020 figures though for more clarification if the trend is finally recovering.
I know for one electronics is actually being exported close to 10 billion now....it is just starting to recover from the doldrums:
A make in India success story: Big surge in exports of electronics items, imports also at record high
I mean that is just so frigging horrid! The missed out opportunity there, what is that a good 6 years or so?
If UPA got two terms for our verdict on them (that got us into this mess big time), Modi needs that same time at least for our equivalent verdict on him. He needs to go fully supply side reform big time now as much as he can, I heard that in 2020/2021 they will even have rajya sabha majority, so there should be no excuse for not doing deep set reforms.
Indian economy has bulked up, its no longer going to get the low base effect that was enjoyed by the 91 reforms (which were also super obvious reforms). It is more a heavy diesel engine now for things to register to throttle/load settings....its not a 800 cc maruti engine anymore
Look at the stats you presented above - the figure you are boosting as shining example as surge of electronic exports, from 2014-2017 (4 year tenure of modi govt) the exports has been below, earlier pathetic rule under UPA2 which was a paralyses govt. Only in last year it reached 2011 figures.
The difference is you are celebrating that & I am not.
While you & Me both celebrate the direction Modi govt is taking, I don't lose sight that a good intent, needs a equally good execution & that is lacking & I say it unapologetically.
And yes a unqualified economist don't automatically make for good FM as you said, the yes ministers & ji hajuri is till prevalent in ministry. Half baked knowledge often is extremely dangerous.
I would strongly recommend to check the export numbers in different sectors during last 5 years. That will explain a lot of things. Overall export number can be sometimes misleading.
You are missing the big picture, its not about a specific thing I am against. I only call for more professionalism & better execution, with a well thought out plan. And am against people celebrating even failures as achievements - that's pure blindness.