RJ is definitely the toughest of the 3, but I don't rule it out, remember that Congress technically doesn't even have a majority; and wherever you have multiple strong factions in a party, splitting the party cannot be ruled out as a possibility.
Indian Political Discussion
- Thread starter Parul
- Start date
RJ is definitely the toughest of the 3, but I don't rule it out, remember that Congress technically doesn't even have a majority; and wherever you have multiple strong factions in a party, splitting the party cannot be ruled out as a possibility.
As of now at the Centre, the identification of Modi with the BJP is complete. There's not a single leader who comes within miles of his stature or who enjoys his levels of mass popularity.
Therefore All this talk, that if the BJP nos fall below a certain level, they'd be forced by their allies to opt for another face for the PM is hogwash. Such a proposal would be rejected by the BJP.
I think the era of toppling governments died with IG. There have been certain attempts made over the years in different states with different degrees of success enjoyed but by & large ever since the SC intervention & landmark judgement in the Bommai case, that trend, though tempting, has seen to be yielding diminished returns.
Case in point - In Karnataka a decade ago, when Kumaraswamy scuttled BSY's CM aspirations, in spite of an understanding, the electorate resoundingly provided their mandate in favour of the BJP in the next elections. It's another matter that BSY screwed up badly.
I sincerely hope, the BJP desists from such maneouvres in Karnataka, Rajasthan & MP & let's the coalition in all these States unravel on their own. Frankly, Ashok Gehlot enjoys a much better reputation than VRS in Rajasthan as far as an administrator goes.
Kamal Nath too enjoys a reputation as a doer too, though he belongs to the age old Congress tradition of being a wheeler dealer. That would be the BJP's cue to be alert enough to ensure he's caught with his hands in the cookie jar.
The bottom line is Indian States need a decent set of administrators, be they from the BJP or Congress or any other party.
ABP is showing an opinion poll for GE 2019 and the survey results are confirming what I had written. remember that ABP News is an anti BJP news channel with leftist leanings.
Yes and the pollster is saying that these figures will rise in run up to the election as had been witnessed in recent assembly elections.
Karnataka is always possible as only few member being absent from the assembly from either Congress or JDS will result in fall of govt. Disqualifying the MLA will also not help like in case of UK. If by-election happen for some 10-12 seats or enough members leave JDS, BJP will manage Karnataka.
In MP too situation is problematic. Congress does not have majority. If BJP wins 2019 it might manage MLAs of SP-BSP and all independents are already ready to support BJP as they are getting nothing as of now.
But the 292 figure is only if the MGB isn't formed in UP right? I imagine it'll be formed, although seat-sharing and vote transfer won't be perfect. What role Chandrashekhar Ravan might play is still unknown, as is the effect of BJP propped vote cutters like Shivpal Yadav and Raja Bhaiya.
Also, how did they count Maharashtra? Because after this latest speech by Uddhav Thackeray, I think its time to consider the possibility of BJP really fighting alone.
Last edited:
SC intervention will be a bit of a thorn in the flesh, as long as BJP continues to let itself be bullied by the Supreme Court and the old legal hands in Congress. The Bommai Case, to my knowledge, only dealt with the arbitrary dismissal of State Gvt's on flimsy grounds by the Centre (famously done time and time again by IG and RG). That's not what I'm suggesting, and I believe there's still plenty of scope for maneuver, it just has to be more covert and deft with at least a thin veneer of justification, unlike the blatant power grabs of the past.
I think all 3 of those State Gvts have the potential to unravel on their own, with a little push/blow here and there by BJP; and I do hope BJP doesn't restrain itself from providing those touches when the moment comes along, after all power > everything in politics, and 5 years would be way too long a time to be out of power in all 3 of those states (Chhattisgarh, minus an Arunachal Pradesh type maneuver, is almost certainly out of reach for 5 years now - and will likely piss away any progress made against Maoists & Missionaries).
I concur that the states need quality administrators above all, but there's no use having Congress CM's if they're gonna engage in corruption and povertarianism, reverse a lot of the progress made by previous Gvts, and constantly feud with and try to sabotage any initiatives in those states by the center. Not to mention, as great as an LS majority is, it's still at least partially toothless without a matching RS majority as well.
KAR and MP are pieces of cake, and once BJP crosses the '19 hurdle, the situation will be hard in RJ too for Congress. If Con loses in LS again and Gehlot isn't making way in RJ, what sort of future will be left for Pilot - who did most of the hard ground work for this election? If Gehlot is pushed aside, what happens to his loyalists in the RJ unit? One of the two factions will have to give, and then BJP will have its opening - although the numbers won't be as easy to manage as RJ and KAR.
I have a feeling that Mahagathbandan will not effect as adversely as had been predicted by the pollster and in Maharashtra he has given only 18 seats to BJP+SS combine.
In south India they have given just 15 seats to BJP out of some 149 seats. In TL just one, in AP, TN & Kerala nil. JYSRC is projected to get 14 seats in AP. They can be a partner for BJP and similarly if BJP can rope in Rajnikant and AiADMK, they can get more seats in south.
Last edited:
Yea, in that case this is a pretty conservative prediction. They haven't included parties which will almost certainly join NDA like TRS, BJD, AIADMK & Rajini. As for YSRCP, which will also very likely align with NDA; I wouldn't be surprised if they sweep or almost sweep Andhra. 14 actually seems kind of low.
A question for anyone who knows the technicalities: What are the conditions for dissolution of assembly & fresh elections? Do you just have to make sure the ruling coalition loses a floor test? And is it the Governor who decides the course of action from there?
It's all gray line area. If the govt. fails floor test and no new coalition is in site Governor can dissolve the assembly. But it should have some ground to it. Without that SC intervention is always possible.
I am watching the Bahiyyaji Kahin prog on News India. Long back on another forum, I had written about Cow Vigilantes and I had stated that we must allow slaughter of bulls and old cows which are no more giving milk as the feed stock is limited, the population which rears them is in no position to spend on these cattle when they grow old and they will become a public nuisance. Now what this program showed today was exactly this. People in Braj/Mathura are fed up due to the menace of stray cattle and especially Bulls. These stray cattle are destroying their crop and also causing injuries to the local people.
I have a doubt, I never have seen Akhilesh yadav speaking in English and people very close to him have confirmed that he does not know English. Now the question is " How this man can complete his engineering from Australia?"