@randomradio:
"CSIRO has been leading the development of a roadmap for the Australian solar fuels industry. Theroadmap aims to define the research, development and demonstration priorities to establish andfoster an industry using solar thermal technologies. During the three-year project, the cost ofphotovoltaic (PV) technologies has significantly reduced, while interest has grown in theproduction of hydrogen from electrolysis. This report, commissioned by ARENA, assesseshydrogen production from PV and electrolysis. It is intended as both a standalone document and auseful reference point for comparison with solar thermal technologies. It considers the likelycurrent cost as well as a ‘realistic, optimistic’ view of future possibilities, as presented in the solarthermal fuels roadmap.
Our evaluation of the current and future (2030) cost of hydrogen from PV and electrolysis showsthat the potential cost using currently available technology is approximately $18.70/kg H2. Thebase case system consists of a PV module with power electronics connected to a proton exchangemembrane electrolysis plant, which produces hydrogen only when the PV system is producingpower. The assessment is based on an estimated system cost of $2300/kW for a large scale, nontracking PV system with a mid-range capacity factor of 20.5% and a weighted average cost ofcapital of 6.4%, as recently published by the CO2CRC (2015). It is assumed that the uninstalled costof the electrolyser and associated components is $2,285/kW, in line with recent estimates fromthe European Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking (Bertuccioli et al., 2014). Significant costreductions are predicted for both these technologies, cutting the estimated cost of hydrogen to$9.10/kg by 2030.
The study also examined the potential of battery storage to reduce the cost of hydrogenproduction. In this scenario, the battery system was used to condition the power supply from thePV system, with sufficient storage capacity provided to enable continuous operation of theelectrolyser. Lithium-ion battery technology was selected as the most appropriate. In both currentand future scenarios, battery storage increased the cost of hydrogen relative to the base case, dueto its relatively high cost compared with energy production from PV. Based on current and futurebattery costs of $540 and $200/kWh, the estimated cost of hydrogen was $28.40 and $11.30/kg in2015 and 2030 respectively. While the current cost with battery storage is much higher than thecase without storage, the gap is expected to be close if projected battery cost targets are met. Itwas also interesting to note that the addition of any amount of Li-ion battery storage to thesystem increased the hydrogen production cost relative to the base case.
The estimates of hydrogen production costs are significantly higher than the current cost of itsproduction from steam methane reforming, which is typically in the range of $1.50-2.50/kg H2.Naturally, however, fossil fuels such as methane produce significant greenhouse gas emissions,while PV-electrolysis systems are instead based on renewable solar resources and produce zeroemission fuel."
1. $2/kg is steam methane reforming, that isn't green and it doesn't include compression (16.7kWh or £5/kg), only production.
2. Note that even if you could produce H2 for free, you still have £5/kg for compression at 16.7kWh/kg, and even that puts it over the 13.2kWh of electricity required for 100km with a Tesla Model 3. Again transportation and storage costs are ignored. So H2 beating EVs for personal transport is a mathematical impossibility.
"CSIRO has been leading the development of a roadmap for the Australian solar fuels industry. Theroadmap aims to define the research, development and demonstration priorities to establish andfoster an industry using solar thermal technologies. During the three-year project, the cost ofphotovoltaic (PV) technologies has significantly reduced, while interest has grown in theproduction of hydrogen from electrolysis. This report, commissioned by ARENA, assesseshydrogen production from PV and electrolysis. It is intended as both a standalone document and auseful reference point for comparison with solar thermal technologies. It considers the likelycurrent cost as well as a ‘realistic, optimistic’ view of future possibilities, as presented in the solarthermal fuels roadmap.
Our evaluation of the current and future (2030) cost of hydrogen from PV and electrolysis showsthat the potential cost using currently available technology is approximately $18.70/kg H2. Thebase case system consists of a PV module with power electronics connected to a proton exchangemembrane electrolysis plant, which produces hydrogen only when the PV system is producingpower. The assessment is based on an estimated system cost of $2300/kW for a large scale, nontracking PV system with a mid-range capacity factor of 20.5% and a weighted average cost ofcapital of 6.4%, as recently published by the CO2CRC (2015). It is assumed that the uninstalled costof the electrolyser and associated components is $2,285/kW, in line with recent estimates fromthe European Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking (Bertuccioli et al., 2014). Significant costreductions are predicted for both these technologies, cutting the estimated cost of hydrogen to$9.10/kg by 2030.
The study also examined the potential of battery storage to reduce the cost of hydrogenproduction. In this scenario, the battery system was used to condition the power supply from thePV system, with sufficient storage capacity provided to enable continuous operation of theelectrolyser. Lithium-ion battery technology was selected as the most appropriate. In both currentand future scenarios, battery storage increased the cost of hydrogen relative to the base case, dueto its relatively high cost compared with energy production from PV. Based on current and futurebattery costs of $540 and $200/kWh, the estimated cost of hydrogen was $28.40 and $11.30/kg in2015 and 2030 respectively. While the current cost with battery storage is much higher than thecase without storage, the gap is expected to be close if projected battery cost targets are met. Itwas also interesting to note that the addition of any amount of Li-ion battery storage to thesystem increased the hydrogen production cost relative to the base case.
The estimates of hydrogen production costs are significantly higher than the current cost of itsproduction from steam methane reforming, which is typically in the range of $1.50-2.50/kg H2.Naturally, however, fossil fuels such as methane produce significant greenhouse gas emissions,while PV-electrolysis systems are instead based on renewable solar resources and produce zeroemission fuel."
1. $2/kg is steam methane reforming, that isn't green and it doesn't include compression (16.7kWh or £5/kg), only production.
2. Note that even if you could produce H2 for free, you still have £5/kg for compression at 16.7kWh/kg, and even that puts it over the 13.2kWh of electricity required for 100km with a Tesla Model 3. Again transportation and storage costs are ignored. So H2 beating EVs for personal transport is a mathematical impossibility.
I've already proven mathematically with sources that it isn't. You need the electricity to produce and compress green H2. It takes nearly 70kWh for a single kg. Even the compression alone requires more electricity per 100km.
