Armenia is critical for the US and EU to access the Caspian. Plus there's a gas pipeline into Europe that needs protection.
Kalyani 155 million USD Artillery Export
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Armenia is critical for the US and EU to access the Caspian. Plus there's a gas pipeline into Europe that needs protection.
COTS is included in sanctions.
Even if you're just a Russian civilian, you can no longer walk into a store and buy an Intel Core or AMD Ryzen for your PC build.
AMD and Intel Halt Processor Sales to Russia and Belarus (Updated)
A silicon wasteland
It's not just Processors though...microcontrollers, memory controllers, NAND chips, DRAM chips, everything is sanctioned.
Yes, they can smuggle some stuff, but you cannot run industrial-scale operations relying on intermittent smuggling alone.
This was the option left:
Russia Picks a Slow Chinese x86 CPU to Replace Intel/AMD Chips
Intel and AMD chips are no longer available, so Russia looked to China for an alternative.
...but how long can this last, now that China's own ability to manufacture chips is being crippled.
COTS is included in sanctions.
Even if you're just a Russian civilian, you can no longer walk into a store and buy an Intel Core or AMD Ryzen for your PC build.
AMD and Intel Halt Processor Sales to Russia and Belarus (Updated)
A silicon wastelandwww.tomshardware.com
It's not just Processors though...microcontrollers, memory controllers, NAND chips, DRAM chips, everything is sanctioned.
Yes, they can smuggle some stuff, but you cannot run industrial-scale operations relying on intermittent smuggling alone.
This was the option left:
Russia Picks a Slow Chinese x86 CPU to Replace Intel/AMD Chips
Intel and AMD chips are no longer available, so Russia looked to China for an alternative.www.pcmag.com
...but how long can this last, now that China's own ability to manufacture chips is being crippled.
We crippled China's high end chips. But they have a good manufacturing base for majority of chips.
COTS is included in sanctions.
Even if you're just a Russian civilian, you can no longer walk into a store and buy an Intel Core or AMD Ryzen for your PC build.
AMD and Intel Halt Processor Sales to Russia and Belarus (Updated)
A silicon wasteland
It's not just Processors though...microcontrollers, memory controllers, NAND chips, DRAM chips, everything is sanctioned.
Yes, they can smuggle some stuff, but you cannot run industrial-scale operations relying on intermittent smuggling alone.
This was the option left:
Russia Picks a Slow Chinese x86 CPU to Replace Intel/AMD Chips
Intel and AMD chips are no longer available, so Russia looked to China for an alternative.
...but how long can this last, now that China's own ability to manufacture chips is being crippled.
Russian companies can no longer bulk purchase directly from manufacturers with a discount. A local Russian civilian can always go to a shop and pick one up. So it's still COTS. It's illegal to sanction civilians like that. So the Russian military is just gonna have to buy what they want through shell companies and other intermediaries from outside Russia. For now, companies have temporarily blocked supplies.
As for China, more than 70-80% of their chip needs are met domestically. What's been impacted is the high end market, which pushes them out of the global market.
The chips, even the commercial ones like Ryzens & Cores, have been designated as dual-use items under the new sanctions regime.
So yes, they've been blocked as well.
Yes I'm talking about the high-end. There's not much the Russian (or anyone else's) military industry can gain from the medium/low-end chip foundries in China which make stuff that go into smart blenders or TV remotes.
Sure they might be enough to put together some kamikaze drones...but that's not the same as equipping a Battle Management System or a Next-gen Fighter aircraft who's onboard computers have to deal with a bunch of enemy AESAs at the same time.
High-end military electronics are primarily custom-made and built in-house, ASICs and FPGAs. Since it's not built at industrial scale for the consumer market, they don't really bother much about costs.
As for the rest, they can easily find their way through:
In many cases, the military uses low to mid end chips. Like this one:
PowerPC G4 - Wikipedia
The G4 is used in the F-35's mission computer today, TR1. I believe the early Rafale and F-22 used the older G3. So you can be 10+ years behind civilian tech, no problems. If you really want current high end chips, just pick it up from the market.
How many high-end processors would 200 Su-57s really need? Maybe 1000-2000 of different types. Probably a 30-minute ride across the border to an electronics store in Georgia.
Can't do much about stopping the spread of electronics as long as it's in the commercial domain.
It's just nonsense propaganda to scare people. The US can't sanction Russian civilians like that and the military will get whatever they want from the international market.
chips that you are talking about are mostly used in r&d , building simulators. Practically speaking we dont need latest generation processors, even some 2 or 3 gen old chips will do the job.COTS is included in sanctions.
Even if you're just a Russian civilian, you can no longer walk into a store and buy an Intel Core or AMD Ryzen for your PC build.
AMD and Intel Halt Processor Sales to Russia and Belarus (Updated)
A silicon wasteland
It's not just Processors though...microcontrollers, memory controllers, NAND chips, DRAM chips, everything is sanctioned.
Yes, they can smuggle some stuff, but you cannot run industrial-scale operations relying on intermittent smuggling alone.
This was the option left:
Russia Picks a Slow Chinese x86 CPU to Replace Intel/AMD Chips
Intel and AMD chips are no longer available, so Russia looked to China for an alternative.
...but how long can this last, now that China's own ability to manufacture chips is being crippled.
chips used in weapons/missiles are ic controllers/ power chips like those designed by TI. These are actually used in most most of the consumer grade electronics like audio equipment so getting them is not a problem.
Last important thing is that some of the custom chips can be produced using decades old technology like 30nm or 100nm but only problem is that they would have to invest in fab and start operation which will take time.
First thing is those are simple & reliable risc processors which are tried & tested.High-end military electronics are primarily custom-made and built in-house, ASICs and FPGAs. Since it's not built at industrial scale for the consumer market, they don't really bother much about costs.
As for the rest, they can easily find their way through:
In many cases, the military uses low to mid end chips. Like this one:
PowerPC G4 - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
The G4 is used in the F-35's mission computer today, TR1. I believe the early Rafale and F-22 used the older G3. So you can be 10+ years behind civilian tech, no problems. If you really want current high end chips, just pick it up from the market.
How many high-end processors would 200 Su-57s really need? Maybe 1000-2000 of different types. Probably a 30-minute ride across the border to an electronics store in Georgia.
Can't do much about stopping the spread of electronics as long as it's in the commercial domain.
It's just nonsense propaganda to scare people. The US can't sanction Russian civilians like that and the military will get whatever they want from the international market.
Second, unless some image processing is done on board most weapons other than for miniaturized form do not need current gen processors.
High-end military electronics are primarily custom-made and built in-house, ASICs and FPGAs. Since it's not built at industrial scale for the consumer market, they don't really bother much about costs.
As for the rest, they can easily find their way through:
In many cases, the military uses low to mid end chips. Like this one:
PowerPC G4 - Wikipedia
The G4 is used in the F-35's mission computer today, TR1. I believe the early Rafale and F-22 used the older G3. So you can be 10+ years behind civilian tech, no problems. If you really want current high end chips, just pick it up from the market.
The G4 was a high-end unit at the time when F-35's original spec was frozen. Latest blocks will include processors that we would consider high-end today, and this will continue into the future - this is an area where rapid change is both necessary & warranted. For example, for the F35 they are planning for a 2-year cycle for replacement of socketed components i.e. CPUs or GPUs. That means almost every new generation of computational upgrade will find its way onto the F35 within a year since release.
It's part of the reason why the architecture on modern jets is designed to be plug-and-play, and why networks like ALIS are important - to monitor & manage such upgrades on a macro scale so incompatibility issues do not arise and every squadron gets the replacement parts or software/firmware upgrades that their current config requires.
The Block-4 computing upgrade is a major example.
On the modern battlefield if your adversary system has even a 20% processing power lead over you, that can easily translate into a serious disadvantage especially in EW. Not to mention a jet like F-35 has to process images & video in a AR/VR setup for the EODAS-to-Helmet link. You need the latest Nvidia enterprise-grade stuff for that.
In short, the era of "military can run on 10-year old chips no problem" is rapidly coming to an end when it comes to high-tech platforms. If you do that, prepare for your systems to get overwhelmed on the battlefield. The only stuff that's okay to replace on a 10-year cycle is what they are calling "Technical Refresh" above, as in a change in underlying architecture i.e. going from PCIe 3.0 to PCIe 4.0...but that kind of stuff operates on a 8-10 year cycle even in the civilian market so that's not a concern.
@jetray
Bulk purchases of high-end processors are only done by verified Enterprise users, easy to monitor. Can they circumvent that by setting up a sophisticated smuggling ring that buys small quantities from multiple sources? Probably yeah...but maintenance & upgradation of such systems is still going to be a problem as well the cost of production.
Either way you cut it, things bought from Russia are about to get a whole lot more expensive, a lot less reliable, and a lot more of a headache to maintain.
Heck, in some cases half the stuff needed may end up having to be customer-furnished.
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That's not how it works. The military builds their own motherboards, so they can put as many chips as possible on it. If the F-35 uses 5 chips per board of the latest generation, then the Russians will simply use 7 chips of a previous generation to match it. And then they can add like 2 or 3 such motherboards as necessary. Processing requirement for such a use is not a competition to see who has the most, that's irrelevant. For example, the Su-57 may only need half the processing power of the F-35 to do its work, but could be twice as effective doing it 'cause there are a whole host of other factors involved. Ever since the invention of parallel computing, the chip itself has become irrelevant. The quality of the chip is now relevant only from portability, power consumption, space, penny-pinching PoVs, not from processing itself.
Also, as @jetray has pointed out, most of the processing is meant for the GUI. Stuff like virtual reality and augmented reality, displaying images on the MFD and helmet etc, which is where most of the F-35's processing goes towards. The rest of the stuff is just DSP type calculations, you can do it with a 1GHz processor.
As for a technical refresh, it's not a problem. Harris got an F-35 contract for TR2 in 2023 for full use in 2027, considering they keep to that timeline. By the time a TR3 happens, it will be 2030+. Any increased processing requirements can simply be added later on using the same chips, it's all modular.
If what the Russians want is sold in a retail shop, the Russians will get it. Everything else is propaganda.
The Russians are militarising, so the stuff they sell will get cheaper.
The processing goes where its needed. Survivability is key when the enemy has access to high-end AD or LO aircraft, hence stuff like EODAS and its onboard rendering & image processing are important. You need processing power to work through EW environments, so it goes there. The design & quantity of socketed equipment is always maxed out for a given power availability, cooling & space constraint. With chips, that is something that gets smaller, cooler & more power-efficient as time goes by, so its actually going to be the F-35 that's gonna be increasing the number of individual process units every 2 years (if required).
The Su-57 which might undergo such an upgrade maybe once every 10 years cannot keep up. It's simply not designed around the same concepts. The Su-57 cockpit for example is pretty much the same as what was on the Su-35 a decade before it, as are probably the onboard computers.
It's not even meant to keep up. The semiconductor bans just make it more difficult even if they wanted to.
They are barely an industrialized country anymore so that's easier said than done. They are dependent on imports for a lot of the stuff you need to build modern equipment (CNC machines, Autoclaves, industrial lasers etc) and most of those have been sanctioned as well.
Even if it does happen, their focus for the next 10 years is gonna be on rebuilding the humongous material losses sustained so far. The room for accommodating export requests is probably gonna get smaller, and with a lot more uncertainly regarding timelines (which was already an issue with the Russians to begin with).
Processing does not work how you are imagining it. EODAS won't get a boost simply with more processing, at best you can upgrade your MFD from 1K to 2K or 4K. It will only benefit GUI.
Russian jets also get very frequent processing upgrades. It's not 10 years. It's 4 years.
The ban literally does nothing. The only area affected is Russia's own IP that needs outside assistance, like TSMC, and that's the main target. So most of the imagined effects is just propaganda.
It will take them at best 2 years to replace their upgraded Cold War era relics with more upgraded Cold War era relics. Their peacetime upgrade potential for tanks is 500+ a year. They can double or triple that in mere months. The Russians have 7000+ T-72s and 3000+ T-80s stored away.
Production too can be scaled up very quickly compared to peacetime production by many times in a matter of weeks. Their SoEs run only at 20-30% capacity. In case materials like electronics need to be imported, they keep a massive stock of that beforehand.
EODAS is one of the areas that requires a significant baseline to be present and the lack of processing power was one of the main reasons why a lot of planned capabilities could not yet be implemented. Right now they're basically just streaming the video from DAS into the Helmet...it shows that the proof of concept works, but that's nothing tactically relevant in of itself.
What they eventually want to do is to use the data from DAS + EOTS + Radar + Offboard sensors to create a Virtual 3D world, one which is actively interactable (so VR + AR), and they must render all of this in real time, so that the pilot can zoom in on any terrain feature and observe it not only from his perspective but in 360*. The processing power requirement here is SIGNIFICANT. These capabilities are yet to be implemented.
But yeah once Block-4 is in place, it will reach a level where the processing need is saturated as least as far as the GUI is concerned.
That still leaves EW though, where you need every bit of processing power for both offensive & defensive needs. The days of just blasting the spectrum with energy in the hopes of drowning everything out are past when it comes to the F-35. There's a reason the Program Office remains unconvinced that it needs the NGJ.
They plan on the F-35 being able to see & record an enemy radar (including AESAs), crack the algorithm its using to frequency-hop, and carry out focused & targeted Electronic Attacks at specific frequencies at specific times to jam them. It's a far more energy-efficient way to perform EA and if the guys in charge of F35 Program have their way, it will never have to carry an external pod ever again.
There's a reason that 2-year replacement cycle for socketed components has been put in place throughout the program's life. They really do foresee a need for a rapid & continuous increase in processing power to achieve the F-35's mission goals and keep it ahead of emerging threats.
And this will be true for all new Western fighter programs as well.
When was the last time you saw a Su-35 get a processing upgrade?
The mission computers on our Su-30MKIs were changed ONCE throughout their 20-year service history with IAF...and both of them (the original & the upgrade) were actually Indian-built because the architectures offered by the Russians sucked.
We plan to replace it as part of Super-MKI whenever it happens...but its already been over a decade since the last upgrade. So yeah, a 10-year replacement cycle even for socketed components. And a 20-year cycle for the Architecture replacement.
Granted, unlike F-35, the Su-30 or Su-35 do not have the capabilities that would actually even benefit from a 2-year cycle...but my point is neither does the Su-57. Like I said it basically has the same cockpit & mission computers as the Su-35S and Su-30SM.
It won't stand a chance against the likes of F-35 in an Electronic environment.
Most of the Russian 'reserves' are eaten through, cannibalized or have their parts sold off by those in charge for a quick buck. The numbers look good on paper but in reality the situation is bad.
We already saw how they had to dig into the reserves of T-62s to be used in Ukraine. Because most of the modern kit on T-72/80 reserves was either cannibalized already or scavenged off.
We'll see how good their industrial spiral-up goes, I don't have very many hopes. Low tech mechanical stuff, yeah probably they can build again. But like I said, most of the inputs you need to build high-end stuff is gone.
You may smuggle computer chips, not as easy to smuggle a CNC machine.
The TR1 to TR2 upgrade is significant due to the massive difference in timeline between the two. PowerPC G4 is a 20-year old system.
When was the last time you saw a Su-35 get a processing upgrade?
The mission computers on our Su-30MKIs were changed ONCE throughout their 20-year service history with IAF...and both of them (the original & the upgrade) were actually Indian-built because the architectures offered by the Russians sucked.
We plan to replace it as part of Super-MKI whenever it happens...but its already been over a decade since the last upgrade. So yeah, a 10-year replacement cycle even for socketed components. And a 20-year cycle for the Architecture replacement.
Granted, unlike F-35, the Su-30 or Su-35 do not have the capabilities that would actually even benefit from a 2-year cycle...but my point is neither does the Su-57. Like I said it basically has the same cockpit & mission computers as the Su-35S and Su-30SM.
It won't stand a chance against the likes of F-35 in an Electronic environment.
You can see that the MKI started off with an MC in 1998 and has an MC-3 in 2010, so there's obviously an MC-2 in between as well. But that's a complete system replacement, not enhancements that happen via addition of more computing modules of the same type. It's like buying an old GTX 970 for your gaming PC and then SLI'ing it with another of the same type after a year. Parallel processing. Processing enhancements are pretty quick.
The Su-57 has a whole different avionics suite, so you can't compare it to existing jets.
They can't sell stored away junk like that. As long as there are hulls available, everything inside can be built very quickly, in a matter of months.
The Russians have more production capacity than the Germans did before Op Barbarossa in 1941.
Stuff like tanks don't need some uber ultra CNC tech, there are many countries outside the West ready to sell such tech. And they have enough production capacity to build hundreds of fighter jets a year as well.
Look, electronics, production etc for existing stuff are all non-issues for Russia. They have been preparing for this since 2008.
Yeah well the process hasn't been fully implemented yet. But its the plan.
Don't see a reason why they'd skip it in the graph, its possible MC-2 was a non-production model. Besides, I doubt MKI even had the need to change computers so quickly.
MKI and older jets were not very plug-and-play friendly. So the whole MC had to be replaced even though its still using the same architecture and processor models (i486). It's like having to get a whole new ATX motherboard because your existing one is a Micro-ITX with only 1 x PCIe slot for a GPU and so doesn't support SLI.
Other than an AESA, there's really no new sensor on the Su-57 that wasn't already implemented on Su-35S.
Wing-mounted L-band radars, check. 360* MAWS, check. DIRCM, check.
Incremental improvements, yes - but there's very little that's revolutionary in Su-57. They wanted to implement a bunch of new stuff, but everything seems to have frozen in 2019, don't know what kind of roadblock they hit.
Only thing they've been preparing for was what they hoped would be a reenactment of the smooth, almost bloodless takeover like they did in Crimea. At worst, a small offensive action to drive back non-mechanized elements like the Azov Battalion, and to fight off Kiev's Praetorian Guard so to speak before capturing the capital.
From those expectations, they're now at the point of issuing a general mobilization order for Russian civilians. They didn't prepare or expect any of this.
We'll see how much they manage to ramp up production. In a few months I'll be surprised if they won't be asking ISIS if they have some ammo to sell.
We tend to overestimate the level of knowledge an authoritarian inner circle will have about the state of their own readiness or lack thereof. There aren't many people left who would tell Putin what he needs to know. That's how they ended up making such incredibly inept moves like driving a 40 mile-long convoy into Ukraine from Belarus, drive down a few hundred kms until the tank is empty before realizing nobody brought any fuel along...and then abandon the convoy and rush back to Belarus.
Every level of Command in the Military & Government is sh!t-scared of its superiors and is acting as though any news is bad news, so better shut up. It's that attitude that lead to the massive intelligence failure that told Putin that Russians will be welcomed as liberators. How much you want to bet they didn't also tell Putin that his military industrial complex is ready to roll?
By the time the Soviets decided to take the battle to Berlin, they were riding on the steam of Stalin's forced industrialization policies that preceded WW2 by a decade. The Russia of today is riding on the coattails of 30-years worth of post-Soviet rot & decadence among Russia's bureaucracy & industry.
The fact that in 30 years, they failed to operationalize a single all-new tank or fighter platform is indicative of a lot of things - even at a time when they weren't facing the sanctions they are now.
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2023 for TR2.
Old jets don't need to, but ever since sensor fusion has become the norm, it has. Su-30 saw multiple processing upgrades in the first decade alone. A lot of it was distributed then, with different types of processors meant for different functions. IMA architecture is about 7-8 years old in India for the MKI. Not sure if it's the same in Russia.
Anyway, this is a non-issue. Processing power is dependent on need, it's not a contest.
The base technologies are entirely different. For example, the IR sensors on the Su-57 are based on QWIP. There's a brand new model out called the Su-57M with new avionics that will undergo state tests before production.
Some new sensors on the 11th prototype.
A lot of the stuff they have is simply sitting out in the open, like the American boneyards. It's not a secret.
They didn't operationalise anything new because they started seriously only a decade ago. Most of the early years were spent on their nuclear forces, which is why we see brand new SSBNs, SSNs and ICBMs. As that finished, only then did they switch over to other areas, and that's meant to happen starting 2025+, like the Armata and Su-57, along with a new surface fleet starting with Admiral Gorshkov. Meaning, the Americans hit them before they could begin modernisation. They don't even have a proper comm system yet.
Block-4 is TR3 right?
Do we know if 101KS-V uses QWIP? Never heard anything official, just people speculating that since the Americans & French implemented it, the Russians will too.
Russia is significantly behind France when it comes to Imaging IR solutions. T-90 MBTs are actually fitted with French Thales thermal imagers (Catherine FC) because the Russian ones suck.
There's a brand new model out called the Su-57M with new avionics that will undergo state tests before production.
Some new sensors on the 11th prototype.
Am I missing something here? This is just the 101KS-U MAWS side arrays. They were there since the start.
The large glass window is mostly a means of mounting the system flush with the airframe within an angular housing instead of a rounded window poking out like on Su-35, but the actual sensor inside seems the same size & aperture as the SOAR system on Su-35, I doubt if even a FoV improvement is there.
Yeah they're already digging through T-62s for Ukraine. The more modern ones were probably already cannibalized in the 30 years since USSR ended to keep the current ones running.
Even Yasen & Borei were Soviet designs tbh. The 80s was when the last crop of properly-educated & trained Russian engineers were added to the workforce. Everything since then has been lacklustre.
Russians have a tough road ahead.
After reading many of the posts,
India seems to be in a position between Ukraine and Russia..
Against Chinese, Indian position will be like Ukraine.. Only the Himalayan ranges acting as the fence.. But the technological gap, production capacity and quantity of weapons are far wider than Russia vs Ukraine.
Similarly I doubt we could get the same international help, as Ukraine want to join NATO, and all of West are into it.
There wont be many who would help Chinese, but China won't be needing thier help, country is massive, production capacity is massive, almost a dictatorship , will enforce anything out of their citizens.
Russian defence industry are yet to be bombed, still their production is insufficient,
How will india produce, it's production itself is small and enemies have means to hit the industry... Means we wouldn't hold for as long as Russia did.
Against Pakistan, we could take them out, before they can damage significantly on us.
But our stocks? Will we replenish faster than Russia?
Seems like we need to grow a lot..
Except for networking and ' 36 ' Rafales, where are we ahead of Russians?
India seems to be in a position between Ukraine and Russia..
Against Chinese, Indian position will be like Ukraine.. Only the Himalayan ranges acting as the fence.. But the technological gap, production capacity and quantity of weapons are far wider than Russia vs Ukraine.
Similarly I doubt we could get the same international help, as Ukraine want to join NATO, and all of West are into it.
There wont be many who would help Chinese, but China won't be needing thier help, country is massive, production capacity is massive, almost a dictatorship , will enforce anything out of their citizens.
Russian defence industry are yet to be bombed, still their production is insufficient,
How will india produce, it's production itself is small and enemies have means to hit the industry... Means we wouldn't hold for as long as Russia did.
Against Pakistan, we could take them out, before they can damage significantly on us.
But our stocks? Will we replenish faster than Russia?
Seems like we need to grow a lot..
Except for networking and ' 36 ' Rafales, where are we ahead of Russians?
The west even if it wants will not be able to help another Ukraine like situation. You see the money needs to come from somewhere. The ATGMs alone which West transferred to Ukraine was stocks going back to 3 decades.
Apart from USA no other western nation will ever be able to rebuild that level of stocks ever again.
We bought 145 m777s right? USA has donated 148 M777s to Ukraine. That ain't cheap even for USA.
All the Soviet era equipment they had bought and stored, everything is used up.
The thing that they needed to turn to Pakistan for artillery shells pretty much tells the scenario.
West is in no position to help anymore.
We will need to fight our own wars ourselves.
ATGMs, SAMs, Radars
ATGM s, our stocks are Milan & Konkurs..
We are still placing orders for konkurs,
But we are developing variety of new ATGMS..
Still importing and waiting for S400.
Good to know our short - medium ranges are contemporary class..
Good to know our Radar s are ahead..
I think ATGMs, SAM and Radars in the coming decade we ll be in contemporary class.